Skip to main content

I originally posted this as a comment, but people asked me to make a diary, so I am.  This is my analysis of the right wing handwringing over the supposed polling bias, specifically in PA, which make a good case study because (1) it is a state that has plenty of polling, (2) there is a clear power struggle going on there over whether it is a swing state with the PA RSC trying not to lose millions in outside spending and (3) there is a GOP pollster actually touting the "bias" in the PA polling and claiming to poll the state as a 1 or 2 point race.  Anyway, here it is.

I compared polls in PA, one of the "Quinnipiac three" that the wingnuts are particularly whiny about.  In this case, we actually have a PA GOP pollster, Susquehanna, touting the poll bias:

http://sprblog.wordpress.com/....

 

In our surveys, 18-44 yr. olds make up 30% of all interviews and voters 45 years of age and older represent the remaining seventy percent.  For instance, according to 2008 exit polls voter turnout among 18-29 year olds peaked at 18%, but national and state polling proves interest among younger voters down sharply this year due to higher unemployment with younger voters and college graduates in particular.

[R]ecent polls showing a double-digit lead for Obama are not believable, and are probably using the 2008 voter turnout as the basis of their survey model. ... Our vote model for gauging the number of interviews conducted with voters of different demographic groups (things like party affiliation, racial background and age range, etc.) is a blend of turnout models from both the 2008 and 2004 presidential elections, but leans more towards 2004 VTO and is predicated on the belief that turnout this November will not be anywhere near ’08 levels when 5.9 million votes were cast.
I decided to do some research on these claims.  Here are the PA exit polls on age:
 http://elections.nytimes.com/....
 http://www.cnn.com/....

Age    2008    2004    Weighted (75% 2004)
 18-29    18%    21%    20%
 30-44    28%    28%    28%
 45-64    39%    29%    32%
 65+       15%    22%    20%

The Q poll didn't have the detailed crosstabs, but I used an F&M poll that showed Obama +9:

https://edisk.fandm.edu/....

Guess what?

Age    F&M
 18-34    12%
 35-44    12%
 45-64    40%
 65+      37%

F&M severely undersampled young voters, even compared to just 2004.

By Race

Race    2008    2004    Weighted
 White    81%    82%    82%
 Black    13%    13%    13%

Race    F&M
 White    91%
 Black    9%

By Geography

Region    2004    F&M
 Philly    12%    9%
 SE      21%    24%
 NE      14%    12%
 Pitt      23%    20%
 "T"      30%    35%

2008 didn't have region in the exits, so I just used 2004.

So, the F&M poll compared to the 2004/2008 weighting that Susquehanna suggests they used (or even to just the 2004 exit polls alone...) UNDERSAMPLES young voters, black voters, and Philadelphia and oversamples the "T" area of Pennsyltucky.  Yet, when you look at voter self-identification:

Voter ID    2004    2008    F&M
 Dem    41%    44%    41%
 GOP    39%    37%    29%
 Ind    20%    18%    30%

Despite FAVORABLE demographics for the GOP, MUCH more favorable than even 2004, the voter self-identification in PA has gone from +2 to +7 to +12 from 2004 to 2008 to 2012.  There is no manufactured bias in these polls, there is just manufactured outrage on the right.  The GOP, at least in PA, is absolutely hemorraging support.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Thumb, Sylv, DeminNewJ, itchyredness, Kaina PDX, saugatojas, kaleidescope, bosdcla14, Emerson, MouseThatRoared, Sherri in TX, Wintermute, hyperstation, xynz, Bogleg, cyberKosFan, Wee Mama, Andy Katz, whenwego, CoolOnion, themank, mkfarkus, mrblifil, roses, retLT, larryrant, PeteZerria, splashy, dksbook, Quege, RLF, menodoc, ninothemindboggler, Spot Cat, dwahzon, kalmoth, ybruti, tomjones, furi kuri, Limelite, sawgrass727, Gowrie Gal, Ohkwai, nailbender, stlawrence, citizenx, Dr Squid, bently, Montco PA Dem, Nowhere Man, Shirl In Idaho, keeplaughing, InsultComicDog, AoT, Patriot4peace, middleagedhousewife, Texdude50, pat of butter in a sea of grits, clinging to hope, Deadicated Marxist, gloriana, puakev, GMFORD, Geiiga, pioneer111, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, BasharH, BostonBilly, gizmo59, JayC, TX Freethinker, BobBlueMass, Involuntary Exile, Calamity Jean, Lujane, pamelabrown, Jake Williams, triplepoint, Tam in CA, My Spin, Jodster, catfishbob, dmhlt 66, immigradvocate, JBL55, legendmn, maggiejean, lancecote, prettygirlxoxoxo, Rhysling, Glacial Erratic, susanWAstate, Bonsai66, glitterlust, sanglug, Keith Pickering, PhotogHog, Lacy LaPlante, Larsstephens, confitesprit, drainflake77, gramofsam1, politik, on board 47, ItsSimpleSimon, anonevent, kenwards, Mac in Maine, According to Fish, spindr27, Mico0109, spooks51, implicate order, myadestes, iowacaucus, aisb23, OhioNatureMom, FightingRegistrar, jakewaters, phoebesdatter, IB JOHN, antooo, PhilJD, JoeEngineer, bakeneko, Siri, Deep Texan, draa, avsp, Victim of Circumstance, SBParrothead, CalBearMom, newinfluence, weck, paccoli, ET3117, k9kiki, ilo

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site