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Liz Arnet reminded us about Bush predicting where he'd win in 2004.

Brokaw: "Four years ago, I interviewed President Bush at a time when it looked like he may be in trouble against John Kerry — the final weekend of the campaign. I showed him a map. He said, 'Oh, I just don't do that. Karl Rove does that.' As soon as the interview was over, he said, 'I'll win here,' and pointed to southeastern Ohio. Where will you win, if you win?
Now Romney's doing the same thing. And given the election fraud news coming out of Florida, there may be reason to worry about a repeat.

Romney's "Little Secret" - Predicts he'll win in Pennsylvania.

Philadelphia (CNN) - Mitt Romney on Friday opened a Philadelphia fund-raiser by saying a Romney win in the battleground state of Pennsylvania would amount to a surprising defeat.

"You know we really would shock people if early in the evening of Nov. 6 it looked like Pennsylvania was going to come our way and actually did come our way,”

...

"I'm going to win Pennsylvania, and I'm going to become the next president of the United States,"

...

CNN's Poll of Polls indicates President Barack Obama has a 10-point advantage over Romney in Pennsylvania, 51% to 41%.

Why was Bush so confident about Ohio? Why is Romney so confident about Pennsylvania? As is typically the case with our questionable election system in this country, we'll probably have to wait until after the voting is over to find out. But I hope not. We need to be dotting the i's and crossing all the t's when it comes to making sure Romney and Rove don't do it all over again.

2:55 PM PT: Here is an action link to the Dem Pennsylvania Party from mffarrow in the comments:

http://www.padems.com/...

We might also contact the NAACP in Pennsylvania about what can be done to safeguard the vote. They were protesting the Voter ID laws the Republican Secretary of State championed.

http://pastatenaacp.org/...

I will post more action items as they arise.

3:29 PM PT: More action links from Crashing Vor: http://www.protectingthevote.com/
and http://videothevote.org/

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Comment Preferences

  •  Yes (10+ / 0-)

    and voter suppression tactics and RW cheating does concern me but...

    How much cheating can Romney and the GOP get away with?

    With early voting having already started in some places, we'll get the heads up well ahead of time.

    •  You underestimate these evil dipshits? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gffish, apimomfan2, jayden

      Their confidence against a strong headwind worries me. They've done it before.

      They steal money from the poor already. Stealing votes from the poor is second nature.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:46:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  their confidence (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LeftOfYou

        is to keep bilking money out of credulous billionaires.

        McCain was confident, too

      •  You might want to remember. (0+ / 0-)

        Our GOP friends, down to nearly the very last one, are completely detached from reality and utterly delusional. They live in an imaginary World that the reality based community cannot perceive. Their confidence that they are winning this election is equal in power and equally supported by evidence as their belief that the President is a foreign born Muslim.

        That said, it doesn't mean they won't do what the can to steal the election. The key for our side is not merely to win, but to win by enough that it isn't close enough to steal.

        Democrats should stay alert for GOP ratfucking and take common sense safeguards, while working for and contributing to the good guys and to GOTV, but there is no reason this year to worry overmuch about Republican skullduggery. It isn't going to be that close where it matters.

        The stain of Bain is wrecking Romney's name. h/t to Lerner & Lowe

        by LeftOfYou on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:37:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm convinced that the constant bleating of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      apimomfan2

      Republican operatives that the polls favoring Obama are all skewed towards Democrats is strategic.  If enough people believe that, they won't protest the fraudulent results when voter suppression tactics and mysterious counts from voting machines show that Romney won in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

  •  We need to work hard (7+ / 0-)

    Can you post some action items in your diary? What can we do to help in Pennsylvania? Phonebanking? Donating?

    Here's a link to the PA Democrats organization:

    http://www.padems.com/

    They have an action page, and contact information.

  •  Generally, it's not in the voting, it's in the (8+ / 0-)

    counting. The electronic voting machines are still vulnerable to having their software jiggered so the shifting doesn't occur until a couple hundred votes have been logged in.
    Only random hand counts to verify the tally after the fact will provide a good check.

    We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:46:03 PM PDT

    •  Proven that Bushco DID STEAL 04. Fact. (4+ / 0-)
        New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked
                  by Bob Fitrakis, freepress.org   July 20, 2011

                  A new filing in the King Lincoln Bronzeville v. Blackwell case includes a copy of the Ohio Secretary of State election production system configuration that was in use in Ohio's 2004 presidential election when there was a sudden and unexpected shift in votes for George W. Bush.

                  The filing also includes the revealing deposition of the late Michael Connell. Connell served as the IT guru for the Bush family and Karl Rove.

                  Connell ran the private IT firm GovTech that created the controversial system that transferred Ohio's vote count late on election night 2004 to a partisan Republican server site in Chattanooga, Tennessee owned by SmarTech.

                  That is when the vote shift happened, not predicted by the exit polls, that led to Bush's unexpected victory.

                  Connell died a month and a half after giving this deposition in a suspicious small plane crash...

            http://freepress.org/....
              Excerpt here - much more at link.

      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.”
      --Thomas Jefferson, 1816.
  •  Speaking at a fundraiser (7+ / 0-)

    I don't expect him to say, "Yeah, I'm gonna get my ass handed to me by Obama in Pennsylvania."

  •  If Romney wins, it'll be election theft (7+ / 0-)

    Except for the dimwitted knuckledragging righties who believe whatever Rush and Fox News tell them, I suspect because of the widespread press over the voter suppression attempts and the fact that Romney has trailed in EVERY poll imaginable, people will not be so quick to shrug and say, "Gosh, guess he's our preznit now"

    And I don't think Obama will back down from lawyering up if it's obvious there was some attempt at election theft.

    Mostly I think Romney is just full of bluster because no one mentioned to him the voter suppression in PA has been kicked back down to the lower courts.

  •  Big BIG difference (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Russgirl, snowcity

    in saying something off-camera to one person at the end of the campaign and whistling past the graveyard to a couple hundred 6 weeks out, doncha think?

    If Romney had a secret plan for PA he wouldn't mention it to his wife!

    Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

    by Clem Yeobright on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:51:59 PM PDT

  •  correct me if I'm wrong (7+ / 0-)

    and I may well be... but I'm old enough (sigh) to remember the Kerry election and how DKos strangely didn't really encourage any discussion of vote-rigging and dubious Ohio election returns.

    IMHO there was ample evidence that that election was stolen but somehow, well, nothing to see here...

    Since then there has been absolutely zero progress on ballot verification and improved vote security. I heard Bev Harris of blackboxvoting.org speak recently and it's scary how easily the elections can be manipulated in the US -- in fact, scarier than ever. As I recall she cited Germany as a country which abolished electronic voting (or "voting") and insists on hand-counted paper ballots now.

    As for the virtual refusal of DK to allow debate of this all those many years ago... it's a mystery to me.

    She said that she was working for the ABC News
    It was as much of the alphabet as she knew how to use

    by Paolo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:52:33 PM PDT

    •  They sought legitimacy (5+ / 0-)

      and so 911 investigations and vote rigging investigations by anyone but "the establishment" were largely ignored. IMO.

      But that's just like my opinion, man.

      I'm hoping that with greater legitimacy and after learning some lessons, people will be more open to discussing these so-called "conspiracy theories" before it's too late.

      If there's anything we should have learned from the last decade and a half (much less the last 30-40 years) is that the GOP is one giant conspiracy, and they don't draw lines in terms of what they're willing to do to retain power.

      The NeoCons have made that infinitely more dangerous and extreme.

    •  Also a mystery why DEMS don't stand up on this! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xsonogall, apimomfan2

      Don't they believe in "one person, one vote" or are they too enamored by their billionaire masters?

      "If you self-identify with the republican party as it stands today, there's something SERIOUSLY FUCKING WRONG WITH YOU."

      •  I remember John Edwards stating on election night (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        apimomfan2

        that the Democrats would challenge the reported election totals in Ohio.  It was only a few hours later that John Kerry congratulated George W. Bush on his re-election.

        I haven't donated a cent to any fundraising appeal from John Kerry since that time.

    •  it was "discussed" ad nauseum (0+ / 0-)

      until kos got sick of it -- and then it was discussed some more. Even after it was banned, it wasn't really banned: I've had many dozens of discussions about it here.

      The arguments that Kerry really won or "should have" won, in general, have been pretty soundly rebutted. There is always room for speculative hypotheticals.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:33:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think you read too much into OH-2004 (8+ / 0-)

    as a parallel for Romney's current wishful thinking about PA-2012.

    Consider the polls around this time for OH in 2004. By the beginning of October Bush was ahead in many of them - plus there was if anything substantial noise, no general trend. (nader was not on the OH ballot in 2004.

    Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
    Gallup | 10/17-10/20 706 LV  3.5 47 48 1 Kerry +1
    FOX News | 10/17-10/18 800 LV  3.5 49 44 - Bush +5
    SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 698 LV  3.8 47 49 - Kerry +2
    Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV  4.0 46 45 - Bush +1
    ABC News | 10/14-10/17 789 LV  3.5 47 50 - Kerry +3
    Rasmussen | 10/12-10/18 537 LV  4.0 47 47 - TIE
    Ohio Poll | 10/11-10/17 757 LV  3.6 46 48 - Kerry +2
    Rasmussen | 10/7-10/13 564 LV  4.0 49 47 - Bush +2
    Strategic Vision* | 10/9-10/11 801 LV  3.0 51 43 1 Bush +8
    Chicago Tribune | 10/8-10/11 500 LV  4.4 45 49 - Kerry +4
    ARG | 10/4-10/6 600 LV  4.0 47 48 1 Kerry +1  
    SurveyUSA | 10/2-10/4 761 LV  3.6 48 49 - Kerry +1  
    Rasmussen | 9/25-10/2 597 LV  4.0 48 47 - Bush +1
    Columbus Dispatch | 9/22-10/1 2859 RV  2.0 51 44 - Bush +7
    Gallup | 9/25-9/28 664 LV  4.0 49 47 1 Bush +2
    Strategic Vision* | 9/24-9/26 801 LV  3.0 52 42 1 Bush +10
    Now, compare that to what we are presently seeing in PA for 2012:
    Poll    Date    Sample    MoE    Obama (D)    Romney (R)    Spread
    Morning Call
    9/22 - 9/26    427 LV    5.0    49    42    Obama +7
    CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
    9/18 - 9/24    1162 LV    3.0    54    42    Obama +12
    Franklin & Marshall
    9/18 - 9/23    392 LV    4.9    52    43    Obama +9
    Tribune-Review/Susquehanna
    9/18 - 9/20    800 LV    3.5    47    45    Obama +2
    Rasmussen Reports
    9/19 - 9/19    500 LV    4.5    51    39    Obama +12
    WeAskAmerica
    9/18 - 9/18    1214 LV    2.9    48    42    Obama +6
    Mercyhurst University
    9/12 - 9/20    522 LV    4.3    48    40    Obama +8
    Morning Call
    9/10 - 9/16    640 LV    4.0    50    41    Obama +9
    Philadelphia Inquirer
    9/9 - 9/12    600 LV    4.0    50    39    Obama +11
    Philadelphia Inquirer
    8/21 - 8/23    601 LV    4.0    51    42    Obama +9
    Morning Call
    8/20 - 8/22    422 LV    5.0    49    40    Obama +9
    Noise level low, consistent leader. Margin of predicted victory outside the MOE.
    •  Rather than looking at how much they'd have (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Russgirl, apimomfan2

      to steal and assuming they have enough integrity not to try it, we should probably be looking at the people who would steal it... and in that case there are a fair amount of similarities in terms of how little integrity they have.

      •  it's not about anyone's personal character; it's (4+ / 0-)

        about the difficulty of stealing a 10-pt election vs a 1-2 pt election.  I am sure there will be plenty of close PA races for which the GOTV and election-theft fighting efforts will be critical in the outcome.  But Mitt is not going to steal PA.   Now FL maybe another story.  

        •  If you're making the argument (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          xsonogall, apimomfan2

          that the GOP has too much shame/integrity to try to steal a 10 point election they'll argue was really a 4 point election (by finding some poll or another), then I think you've already lost.

          White resentment, Catholics for Ryan, the Tea Party, soccer moms, blah blah blah, they'll find a reason and the media will buy it hook line and sinker.

          •  No. Not that they have the shame or integrity (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            xsonogall, ItsSimpleSimon, gffish

            That they don't have the ability.

            Only so many votes can be stolen.  Not every machine can be rigged or hacked.  There just are not enough operatives.

            And the polls at this point are just providing way too much objective evidence.  Every poll except Rasmussen has Obama ahead, either by a lot or a little.  Even Rasmussen has the race at a tie.

            Romney suddenly winning by several points, like a 10 point or more swing from almost every single poll, just will not pass the smell test.

            •  They don't have to rig every machine (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              xsonogall, apimomfan2

              If you've got the Sec. State, you can just flip em further down in the process.

              I wish we had a system where what you say was true, but I don't think we do.

              •  Yes but if all things stay the same until Nov (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                snowcity, gffish

                ...he's just saying they'll probably just concentrate on stealing FL rather than PA because it will be less suspicious.

                "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:59:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  thank you, spokespeople :-) Yes--I think if we're (0+ / 0-)

                  going to speak credibly about the phenomenon of election theft, we need to stay realistic about it.  Any time an election comes down to 1-2 points, it can be decided by a whole stew of factors from turnout drives to suppression to outright theft somewhere along the line.   So we should all be motivated to build up double-digit advantages that can't be stolen.  But you know what?  PA has a double-digit advantage!   So let's either worry about closer states, or worry about closer races in PA.  Otherwise it starts to sound a bit too tinfoily...

    •  Kerry was within the MOE for just about every poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ItsSimpleSimon, Mindful Nature

      Bush leading big in a couple of the polls.  

      Thanks for laying it out.  

      Is there any room for Obama moderates around here?

      by Bagger on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:17:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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