Where does the data take us today? By and large, it is another solid day for the Democrats, though there are some definite alarm signs downballot (John Tierney: call your pollster, stat). A series of PPP polls for the National Resources Defense Council have the battlegrounds looking extremely strong for the president, while Obama more or less holds steady in the national polls.
More on the trajectory of the polls after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 44DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 42 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 39 (RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking w/Leaners): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46
MAINE (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 40
MICHIGAN (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 53, Romney 41 (RV)
MICHIGAN (PPP for the
NationalNatural Resources Defense Council): Obama 51, Romney 42
NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Obama 50, Romney 45
NEW MEXICO (PPP for the
NationalNatural Resources Defense Council): Obama 52, Romney 43
NEW MEXICO (Public Opinion Strategies for the Heather Wilson for Senate campaign): Obama 47, Romney 40, Johnson 9
NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Romney 51, Obama 39
OHIO (PPP for the
NationalNatural Resources Defense Council): Obama 50, Romney 44
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Obama 49, Romney 42
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP for the
NationalNatural Resources Defense Council): Obama 52, Romney 40
VIRGINIA (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47
VIRGINIA (PPP for the
NationalNatural Resources Defense Council): Obama 49, Romney 43
MI-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40 (LV); Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37 (RV)A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
MT-SEN (Global Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters--D): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 44, Denny Rehberg (R) 42, Dan Cox (L) 7
NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44
NM-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 43, Heather Wilson (R) 42, Jon Barrie (AIP) 9
ND-SEN (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44
PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44, Tom Smith (R) 36
NH-GOV (PPP for the PCCC): Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44
NC-GOV (National Research for Civitas--R): Pat McCrory (R) 49, Walter Dalton (D) 38, Barbara Howe (L) 3
WA-GOV (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 46, Rob McKenna (R) 45
IL-17 (GBA Strategies for the Bustos campaign): Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 47, Cheri Bustos (D) 45
MA-06 (North Star Opinion Research for Young Guns Action Fund--R): Richard Tisei (R) 45, Rep. John Tierney (D) 37
NH-01 (PPP for the PCCC): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 47
NH-02 (PPP for the PCCC): Ann McLane Kuster (D) 51, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 46
WA-06 (SurveyUSA): Derek Kilmer (D) 52, Bill Driscoll (R) 37
If you are a Democrat looking for good news, the most logical place to look would be in the spate of new PPP polls conducted on behalf of the NRDC. The polls, primarily designed to test public opinion on a variety of environmental questions, also took the time to do the presidential toplines before the message testing. The verdict, by and large, was enormously heartening for fans of the president. In no state was the president's lead smaller than a half-dozen points, and that included Romney must-have states like Ohio and Virginia.
Democrats also have to feel pretty good about today's offerings with regard to Senate races. Even Gravis, which has had a really conservative lean in most of their data (and only had Obama up four with likely voters in this sample) gave Debbie Stabenow a double-digit edge over Pete Hoekstra, whose fortunes appear to have badly sagged as Summer turned to Fall. Meanwhile, two internal polls out of North Dakota and Montana have Democrats looking like at least even money bets to hold onto two Democratic seats in red states. In New Mexico, the news is even more equivocal, but even in Heather Wilson's poll, Martin Heinrich still had a nominal edge (and that was with an improbable nine percent of the vote going to an independent "Some Dude" candidate).
Republicans don't get shut out entirely on the good news front. In the national tracking polls (of which there are now four, with the inclusion of the UPI/CVoter poll), Obama held his ground in two, but lost ground in two others. While this is not likely a sign that all is well in camp Romney, at least it might be a sign that he has stopped hemorrhaging support. Also, Republicans will crow that today's ARG (!) poll is the second in as many days showing a tight margin in Virginia, a must-have Romney state is Ohio is going to stay out of range for the GOP nominee.
At the House level, you'd rather be the Democrats than the GOP, with the only good news coming out of Massachusetts, where a second GOP poll this week shows a lead for challenger Richard Tisei over embattled Democratic veteran Rep. John Tierney. Both polls have seemed a little implausible in their presidential toplines (with Obama barely ahead of Romney), and the last public poll here (taken a month ago) gave Tierney a reasonable cushion. That said, if he is polling, and he is polling ahead, he might want to drop those numbers to a reporter. It is one thing for your opponent to release a favorable internal. But this is two of them, within a span of about 72 hours, showing the challenger up by a substantial margin (outside the margin) in both. That's the kind of narrative you want to counteract, and sooner rather than later.
In other polling news ...
- PPP also polled New Hampshire, with very good results for the Democrats. The poll gave Maggie Hassan a sizable edge over Republican Ovide Lamontagne. Given that this is the fourth poll this week to give the Democrat an edge, it looks like the small edge Lamontagne enjoyed for most of the cycle truly was, as Democrats in the state claimed, solely attributed to name recognition. PPP also checked out the state's pair of House races, and found the Democrats leading in those races, albeit by fairly modest margins.
- Kudos to SurveyUSA for hitting one of the few Democratic-held open seats that has seen absolutely no polling: the Olympic Peninsula-based 6th district in Washington. As expected, Democrat Derek Kilmer looks like a lock to hold it for the Democrats. And, if this district is a bellwether, that could be good news for Democrats across the board, as Jay Inslee led the district by mid-single digits in the gubernatorial race, and Barack Obama led far more comfortably (in the teens) at the top of the ballot.