Skip to main content

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Something I pulled from my head randomly: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    Also had an idea to post this earlier:

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:37:20 PM PDT

  •  My Dad's in Champaign, IL. I guess that's the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv

    new IL-15? What's going on there?

    Can McDowell really win in the MI-1?????

    Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

    by Catskill Julie on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:43:31 PM PDT

    •  Wbo's there? (4+ / 0-)

      If it's Shimkus, the Democrat running is a right-wing anti-abortion nutjob who is only acting as a troll for Randall Terry.  That's real bad, not that Democrats can win in this very GOP seat.

      And yes, McDowell can win.  Some internal polls from him show him ahead single digits.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:47:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  According to my dad, it's an open seat with the (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Sylv

        moderate (he says) Republican Rep. retiring. He thought the Democratic candidate was an emergency room physician but couldn't recall the name--not a great sign. The new district includes the (huge) University of Illinois.

        Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

        by Catskill Julie on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:02:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, you mean the State legislative races. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Catskill Julie

          I thought you meant Congress.  DownstateDemocrat can help you as he lives in Champaign.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:04:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Uh oh. Dad thought that was the Congressional (0+ / 0-)

            race. He's a retired prof and usually pretty astute politically.

            Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

            by Catskill Julie on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:10:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I live in Westville, in Vermilion County (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sylv, KingofSpades, WisJohn

            That's about 30-35 miles or so east of Champaign.

            Julie was referring to IL-13, the congressional race between David Gill (D) and Rodney Davis (R). Tim Johnson (R) bailed out not long after the March 20 primaries, and local Republican county chairmen slated Davis as the replacement nominee.

            There's three state legislative races in Champaign County that have more than one candidate running in the general election that I am aware of:

            52nd State Senate - Mike Frerichs (D) vs. John Bambenek (R)

            Frerichs is the incumbent running for a third term, Bambenek is a Tea Party blogger/columist. This district includes virtually all of the Democratic-leaning areas of Champaign and Vermilion counties, in fact, the district, when viewed on a map, looks like the weather radar signature for a supercell thunderstorm. Champaign, Urbana, Rantoul, and Danville are the four largest cities in SD-52. Frerichs is strongly favored to win.

            103rd State Representative - Naomi Jakobsson (D) vs. Robert Meister (R)

            Jakobsson is the incumbent running for a sixth term, not much is known about Meister. HD-103 is an urban district that includes most of Champaign and the vast majority of Urbana that is probably one of the most Democratic representative districts downstate, so Jakobsson is strongly favored to win.

            104th State Representative - Chad Hays (R) vs. Michael Langendorf (D)

            Hays is the incumbent running for a second term, Langendorf is a school social worker. The shape of this district is absolutely bizarre: The southwest side of Champaign, a couple of subdivisions on the southern outskirts of Urbana, the mostly rural areas of northeastern Champaign County, and the central and southeastern portions Vermilion County were all lumped into HD-104. If Langendorf were running a more serious campaign, he would have an outside chance of winning, as this district is Republican-leaning but not overwhelmingly so, but he's not taking his campaign all that seriously, so Hays is strongly favored to win.

            Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:57:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thank you DD, I will share this with my Dad (who (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DownstateDemocrat

              probably knows most of it). This year he plans to vote straight D--although he is pro-choice, he's always been open to voting for an R of the right sort, but thinks the party had devolved alarmingly and must go away. The anti-science part is unignorable for a retired prof of EE.

              I grew up mostly in Urbana but only voted there in one election. Spent many happy weekend hours playing at the Univ of Illinois Vermillion River Observatory as a child.

              Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

              by Catskill Julie on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:21:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  IL-13, I think. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Catskill Julie

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:15:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Dr. David Gill ? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Catskill Julie

          It sounds like you might be referring to Dr. David Gill the Democrat running for retiring Rep. Timothy Johnson's old seat.  The Republican opponent is Rodney Davis.  This would be IL-13 and it is just a guess based on you describing a candidate as an emergency room physician.

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:43:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm interested in any race that includes.... (0+ / 0-)

      republican knuckle draggers, cross dressers, she's not being rape, cause she's likin it gifted savant morons of the republican persuasion, and republicans who say they dont bother with those fucking fact checkin bitches all the while belonging to the Sarah Falin club.  Also especially special republicans like Todd Akin who is surely idiot like, Michelle, I have to put my husband back in the closet bachman and Alan I am embarrassed you are a black man, West.  My plate is full.  

      Never underestimate the predictibility of stupidity....clearly the real reason there is ANY question of an Obama second term.

      by tdslf1 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:11:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What's the deal with ME-Sen? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I'm getting really nervous that it's going to be a redux of the 2010 gubernatorial race. Angus King is super annoying with his "I'm not saying who I would caucus with" crap, though he'd obviously be much better than Charlie Summers. But he's been on a downward trajectory it seems, at least for now.

    I'd really prefer Dill in the Senate, but that would be a huge blown opportunity if Summers ending up winning. What do people think is going to happen?

    22, PA-15, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

    by GReen4994 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:46:16 PM PDT

  •  Progressive R Senators during the New deal (5+ / 0-)

    Going into the 1932 elections the US senate still had few Republicans from the Progressive Era. When it came to presidential election the caucus split into 3 separate groups:

    Two Liberal Republicans, Charles McNary of Oregon and Arthur Capper of Kansas, stuck with Hoover and formally endorsed him. McNary was later rewarded by his caucus to serve as the incoming senate minority leader.
    Capper went onto support many of the policies of the FDR. His pro-New Deal stance may have played a factor in the reason why this particular senate seat has never elected a Democrat (including during the New Deal).

    Four Western and Midwestern GOP stalwarts remained neutral. The ever-cautious William E. Borah of Idaho, plus Gerald Nye of North Dakota, James Couzens of Michigan, and Henrik Shipstead of Minnesota.

    FDR received the outright backing from Robert M. La Follette (Wisconsin), Hiram Johnson (California), Bronson Cutting (New Mexico), and George Norris (Nebraska)  

    -from The Most Exclusive Club by Lewis Gould

    What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

    by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:52:30 PM PDT

    •  I don't think McNary was considered a liberal (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      at least not here in state politics.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:31:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  he's sorta hard to peg down (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        He started off before his senate career supporting much of the progressive reforms: initiative, recall, referendum, primary elections, and the direct election of U.S. senators.

        on the Oregon Supreme Court:

        He quickly "established himself as a judicial activist and strong advocate of progressive reform". A supporter of organized labor, McNary "consistently defended the rights of injured workers and was not hesitant about using the bench as an instrument for social change" such as an eight-hour work day for public employees. Trade unions supported McNary throughout his political career.
        In the senate:
        Going against much of his party, McNary, part of a group of senators known as "reservationists", proposed minor changes but supported the United States entry into the League
        As minority leader he "hovered most of the time on the periphery of the Republican left", and he opposed disciplining Republican senators who supported President Franklin Roosevelt. He supported many of the New Deal programs at the beginning of Roosevelt’s presidency. As World War II approached, he favored "all aid to England and France short of war". He voted to keep an arms embargo in place, but voted for the lend-lease agreement with the British in 1941 and to re-instate Selective Service in 1940 in preparation for military conscription of civilian men
        He did side with his more conservative brethren after the 1938 midterms which brought Republicans back relevancy in the senate. But when he ran for VP, he stuck like a sore thumb by supporting many of the federal projects that Wendell Willkie opposed
        Whether as Vice President of the U.S. Charley McNary can keep on endorsing Government-power projects, isolation, high tariffs and huge outlays for farm relief under a President who believes in none of these things remains to be seen
        I guess its all relative to who you compare him to. Against Robert Taft, McNary was clearly to the left of his successor.

        What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

        by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:54:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is that a good book? (0+ / 0-)

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:44:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've found it enjoyable (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bfen

        It's pretty concise. They break each chapter into an era (or particular majority leader's term)The only thing it really needs is new chapter on the current senate as it stops at 2005.
        It's got me learning all sorts of cool facts.

        Take Senator Bronson Cutting, although he initially supported much of the New Deal, FDR wanted a more loyal senator. So he backed Cutting's opponent,Dennis Chavez, in 1934. Cutting narrowly in a very close election but Chavez challenged the results.

        In the course of fighting the Chavez challenge, Cutting had to fly back and forth to New Mexico. On May 6th 1935, his plane crashed and Cutting was killed. The governor appointed Chavez to succeed him and become the senate's first Hispanic member. Some of his colleagues blamed Roosevelt for Cutting's death in the sense that dealing with the Chavez challenge put the senator in a plane when he could have been safe in Washington in his senate seat.

        What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

        by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:42:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ps (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, WisJohn

      people had much cooler names in that era.  I mean, Cordell Hull, c'mon.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:08:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sunday night is the end of the Q3... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Sylv

    I'm interested in the money races.  COH numbers will be interesting heading into the last month.  I'm hoping for a big September edge for OFA given the Dem convention kicked off the month and the bounce that came from it, not to mention Romney has been down in the polling and his odds of winning is growing longer and longer.  But Romney still does fundraisers like crazy trying to tap any last large maxed out donors he can find.  

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:58:35 PM PDT

  •  Ellen is most D, Scott is most R (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/...

    See the graph for "How Republican or Democratic Is Your Name?"

    (81% of Ellens who donate politically donated to Ds
    60% of Scotts who donate politically donate to Rs.)

    •  interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      my uncle Scott is very liberal.  Every Ellen I know is a Democrat, but so is every Scott.  Then again most people I know are from the Bay Area and a high percentage of them are Jewish.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:16:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  way cool (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      A pity my name is too rare for anything.

      But I tried using my Pseudonym: Peter and it's pretty Democratic.

      Alex,the main character in the novel I'm working on, works well too. The only problem is his boyfriend, Tyler, is apparently the most Republican name on the list.

      Though I do like the fact that Alec, is the most Democratic guy name. He just happens to be one of favorite characters in a story I'm catching up on.

      What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:22:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  50-50 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      For "Wendell"

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:31:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My name, Ethan, is 55-45 Democratic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, atdnext

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:36:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ironically, My name, Lincoln (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, James Allen

      is 65-35% Dem,

      I bet a lot of that is me- I think i am probably 4 people on that list due to multiple Zip codes from which I have donated from, having bounced around a lot.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:39:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  my name is 55-45 Republican (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, supercereal

      :(

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:10:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  heh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      My sister's name is Ellen and she's well to my left.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:58:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  hey I got a fun activity (0+ / 0-)

      Since they don't give us the full list of names, we have enter names to get them on the grid, I thought this would be fun.
      Lets see if we can find the most R leaning Female names and the most left leaning male names!
      And as a bonus lets do liberal females and conservative males (I found few myself)

      Dem Male Names:
      Willie (93-7)
      Sylvester 86-14
      Jesus 70-30
      Hugo 65-35
      Alec 64-36
      Dexter 64-37 (I think they round up, hence why it adds to 101)
      Angel 63-37
      Seth 62-38
      Simon 62-39

      R Female
      Jamie 58-42

      R Male names:
      Brent 27-73
      Kenny 34-66
      Tyler  34-66
      Billy 35-65
      Carter 36-64
      Wade  36-64

      D female
      Jen 89-11

      What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:23:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know any Ethans, Wendells or Lincolns (0+ / 0-)

      IRL. Which is kind of weird because maybe half of Singaporeans have Western first names.

    •  My last name is 50-50 (0+ / 0-)

      though my actual first name is 53-47 Republican.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:33:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Both Democratic! (0+ / 0-)

      55-45 for my first name, and 62-38 for my last name (Johnson). Guess a lot of Swedes are still Democrats.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally get a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

      by WisJohn on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:44:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Aaron is 51D-49R (0+ / 0-)

      Looks like I have an R+2 or so name from a PVI standpoint. I only know a couple of other people who are named Aaron, and they are both right-wingers.

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:52:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My name is too rare . . . (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, BeloitDem

      . . . to show up. And I'm dismayed to see that my brother's name, Jared, is actually more Republican. That does surprise me, since it is such a common Jewish first name . . . but, then, I've heard that it's also a common Mormon first name, so perhaps that accounts for the prevalence of R's.

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:10:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They don't have my name :( (0+ / 0-)

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:42:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-11 -- McCotter's old seat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Sylv

    Bentivolio is a nutjob.  Taj is not.  But I've seen less communication from either of them than I have from countywide officials.  I've seen no polls to speak of.  I'd love to know what's going down here.

  •  Chip Cravaaaack (5+ / 0-)

    Why is he advertising on this site?

    Does he think we are his key demographic or something?

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:33:06 PM PDT

  •  PA-8 getting dirty (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, lordpet8, jj32, MichaelNY

    There's smart, and there's K-mart smart. Sarah Palin is K-mart smart.

    by InsultComicDog on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:37:32 PM PDT

  •  GOP poll: Joe Garcia 43-33 (10+ / 0-)

    over David Rivera.

    link.

    Feeling good about this. I think Grayson wins as well, and maybe Frankel?(havent heard much on this race). Dont have a good feeling about West vs. Murphy. Would really like more info on Webster vs. Demings as well, I think Demings is a great candidate.

  •  Sen. Webb Rips Romney a New One (8+ / 0-)

    Via Brad DeLong, via James Fallows, Sen. Webb absolutely guts Romney here, without going over the top. It's devastating because what he says is true.

    In addition to helping in Virginia, do you think Webb could help in any other states? Could he help in Arizona in particular, but also in Montana, Indiana, and even Wisconsin? I have no idea if he would stump for any of our candidates besides President Obama and, I would think, Kaine, but if he would and he can be as powerful as he was here, perhaps he could help with certain key groups in those states.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:48:00 PM PDT

  •  A (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

    little off topic, but I've been watching BBC's series on Ancient Rome and I wanted to share this video clip (watch the first two minutes) with all of you on how political rivalries could get really nasty in the ancient world:

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Oh and Nero was a complete nut job, but then again no one could top Caligula when it came to pure insanity.

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:13:43 PM PDT

    •  I studied the Roman emperors from the POV (4+ / 0-)

      of Judea as part of my Early Jewish History elective.  Caesar was the fairest of them all as he allowed them to continue practicing their religion (although he found it odd, particularly when he heard the Inner Sanctum of the Second Temple had nothing inside it, not knowing that it was the Ark's rightful place), allowed Hebrews to observe the Sabbath, and even gave them a sabbatical on taxation on alternate years.  As emperors progressed, they got worse and worse.  Nero was a lunatic who hated the Hebrews (his name was transliterated from Greece by them to "666").  Caligula demanded that all temples have his statue put in and treated Jews with contempt and suspicion.  Hadrian would massacre.

      And yes, Caligula was insane.  He thought himself a god.  No wonder he only ruled 4 years.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:26:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am considering (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Minoring in Classics but there are other great options out there too. I'm not sure yet which one I want to take.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:00:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Campaign stuff in Northern Virginia (8+ / 0-)

    Some miscellaneous stuff to share on the goings-on in the election here in McLean and surrounding areas of NoVa......

    Obama has dominated the airwaves where I am.  We watched broadcast primetime this week for the first time since the spring, with favorite shows back on with new episodes for the new season.  NCIS, a top-rated show on CBS, as expensive as advertising gets, was all Obama ads.  As was everything else on the local CBS affiliate all evening.  Maybe one, two most, ads attacking Obama by independent expenditure groups.  But no Romney campaign ads.  At all.  The new 47% ad that just plays the audio of Romney talking played at least 3 times that I saw, along with scatterings of other Obama ads.

    Not much different all these months on cable.  A lot of Obama ads, a seemingly declining number of independent expenditure anti-Obama attack ads, but not Romney ads.

    Romney has done three direct mail pieces to my house, one to me and two others addressed to my wife.  I've talked about these before...they are junk, recycling the TV ads they've done that I've seen only online as a campaign junkie.  But robocalls!  About one Romney or RNC robopoll per week lately, I think 3 total so far.  They are really just radio ads piped into my answering machine (yes, we still have one of those), complete with the carefully-selected background music and everything.

    I'd mentioned once before that once in the summer the Romney campaign canvassed my house, left lit while we were out.

    No question Obama is dominating here in voter contact, as the above attests.  TV always works best, then canvassing.  I personally have canvassed my neighborhood multiple times already.  The direct mail has been a waste by Romney, as have the robocalls.

    Bumper stickers!  Obama has long dominated this battle.  But Romney bumper stickers have picked up in recent weeks, I now see one almost every day.  Of course in my daily work commute I routinely find myself surrounded by cars with Obama stickers, in addition to my own.  A lot of this is simply living in America's most hyperpoliticized locale...I'm sure there aren't so many bumper stickers on cars anywhere else, probably few in most places.

    Oh, and the most amusing thing recently:  Romney sign-wavers!  Romney has had volunteers stand in road medians or along roadsides during my morning commute a couple times, waving Romney signs at all the cars driving by.  I've heard of this activity......in Hawaii.  It's a tradition there, I understand.  I've never, ever, ever, ever, ever seen anyone do it here in NoVA.  Ever.  Not even for local races.  Glad to see they're using their volunteers so well!

    That's the campaign in NoVA in a nutshell.  Obama should win big here simply based on the partisan breakdown, but if campaigns affect the margins, Obama will greatly overperform.

    In the Senate race, I've seen a few Kaine ads, a lot of anti-Kaine independent expenditure attack ads, and no George Allen ads that I can remember.  I suspect the anti-Kaine ads are having no effect, which is quite the teflon for Kaine because they've been on the air heavy on cable all summer and now into the fall.  Indeed, the anti-Kaine ads were uncontested for a long time.  I'm very happy with the state of the Senate race.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:14:12 PM PDT

  •  If you can't beat him in the legislature, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, lordpet8

    appoint him to a judgeship.

    I hadn't seen anything here about this, but hang on. A Judge recently died in southern Kentucky. The district includes Burkesville, home of the Bully of Burkesville, State Senate President and 2011 losing candidate David Williams. There is a possibility Gov. Beshear may appoint Williams to that judgeship to get him out of the Senate. No word from either one of them as to whether this is going to happen. Here is a link:

    http://www.kentucky.com/...

    It will be interesting to see who the GOP would name the new Senate President if Beshear appoints Williams. My favorites I would bet would run for it would be Sen. David Givens (R-Greensburg), Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown), Robert Stivers (R-Manchester), Carroll Gibson (R-Leitchfield), Julie Denton (R-Louisville), Dan Seum (R-Fairdale), and possibly even Katie Stine (R-Southgate). Stivers and Gibson are currently the #2 and #3 in the GOP. It is also possible that several of these members may run as a team. My guess is that the person that takes the reigns would be Stivers, who is generally well thought of in the Senate.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:23:19 PM PDT

    •  It would also satisfy Julian Carroll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lordpet8

      as it means his promise to outlast Williams in the Senate will last.  What's to gain by getting him out?  Are the rest of the GOP leadership more willing to bend?

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:28:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Democrats could work better (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, LordMike, lordpet8

        with absolutely any of the other Republicans in the Senate than Williams. Beshear would hope for Thayer to win the Senate Presidency, which would guarantee passage of casino gambling.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:34:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen Review (5+ / 0-)

    So at this point, is there anyone who still doubts a Baldwin lead in WI-Sen? I don't mean to be that guy, but I've had great confidence in the Baldwin campaign throughout the last year (this is the earliest example I can find, however). Quite honestly, in retrospect, Thompson has probably been the best of the three Republicans candidates for us to oppose for the very reasons that he's now floundering - he's become a very rusty campaigner and he's done poorly with fundraising throughout the campaign. I think Mark Neumann could've been tied to his conservative votes in the House, but in an inelastic state like Wisconsin, if I had to choose between a conservative opponent like Neumann and an ethically questionable opponent like Thompson, I would pick Thompson. After all, political ethics are not a partisan matter. In all likelihood, the Club for Growth probably would've run into the race and erased Baldwin's financial edge anyway. That's the reason that I actually feared Eric Hovde the most in the primary - he had a massive amount of wealth and could've blanketed the state in advertising. He did seem somewhat gaffe-prone in the primary, though not to any particularly greater degree than Neumann or Thompson would've been in the general election.

    In all, Baldwin has been able to exhibit two great advantages over Thompson - a deep fundraising warchest and a modern, no-holds-barred campaign. I did admittedly get a bit concerned about Baldwin's campaign for a week or two following the primary, but I think Baldwin is pulling into a winning position just when she needs to. I have faith that she'll be Wisconsin's junior Senator in four months' time.

    "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:25:03 PM PDT

    •  Any thoughts on the debate? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:25:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Baldwin Won (8+ / 0-)

        I think each candidate had their pros and cons in the debate, but overall I objectively believe that Baldwin won the debate. I think that Baldwin seemed to stumble on her answers frequently, whereas Thompson almost always knew where he was going with his comments. However, Thompson was always talking to the moderators while Baldwin always spoke directly to the camera, and that is very important in connecting to voters. Baldwin was able to make a personal connection with voters because of her calm, compassionate case that she made to the audience, and I think keeping eye contact with the camera magnified that benefit. I also loved that she ragged on Thompson for Medicare Part D through all 55 minutes of the debate; it was particularly powerful because it became increasingly evident that it was getting under Thompson's skin in a very nasty way. I think Thompson really lost the debate because he was very clearly coming across as an angry old man. 42 minutes into the debate, he went off on an angry tirade about Baldwin blaming him about all sorts of things when he was supposedly "private-sector." By 48 minutes into the debate, in response to a Baldwin answer that didn't involve his HHS service, his remarks about her "not attacking me for my HHS service for once!" (to paraphrase) came across as very irate.

        In short, Baldwin came across as calm and compassionate, whereas Thompson came across as a bitter old man that hasn't aged well. I think Thompson was particularly aggresive in the debate because he knows he's down in the polls and that he's being blanketed in negative advertising throughout the state. He isn't taking it very well.

        I will note that I think Thompson made two very interesting comments in the debate. In particular, he said he believes the filibuster should be removed and that we need to end the Afghanistan War immediately. I think those are two noteworthy pieces of news.

        "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:04:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know how we can say (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, redrelic17, SaoMagnifico

      that the losing candidates in the Wisconsin Republican primaries, who were all more extreme than Thompson, would have been better candidates in the general election. Instead, I think Thompson, win or lose, is the best they've got.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:43:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I know you're referring to me... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      And no, I definitely think she's leading -- improbable as it may be.

      Thompson has run a very poor campaign and he's pissed away a lot of his goodwill. Rep. Baldwin has done a better-than-expected job of managing her message, while the DSCC and Democratic groups have been utterly relentless in grinding Thompson into cheese dust.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:30:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not cheese dust, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

        that would imply Thompson is tasty.

      •  Nah (8+ / 0-)

        My comment above wasn't specifically aimed at you lol. It was aimed as a general comment at a lot of the naysayers in DKE that believed her to potentially be an irreparable candidacy, though if it had to be aimed at anyone, it would probably be the people in that cited conversation - particularly jncca, bfen, GradyDem, and Xenocrypt.

        I believe Thompson has certain done a lot of harm to his campaign throughout this cycle, and a lack of proper funding has really killed him. However, I think this campaign might be evidence of a broader trend that politicians can't really harness "goodwill" now the same way they could several years ago. Thompson and Bob Kerrey in Nebraska were both good candidates on paper, but because of their older age and their ties out of state since their last political campaigns, both have been weaker candidates in practice than in theory. Even Angus King, running his first campaign since 1998, hasn't been able to solidify a lead through "goodwill" from his prior service in the state. They've all just gotten really rusty over the last decade.

        However, Baldwin and Democratic outside groups definitely deserve a lot of credit for the trajectory of this race. Let's keep in mind that Thompson is the greatest Republican Wisconsin politician of the last five decades, so if she pulls this off, she will have pulled off a massive feat (even if Thompson isn't the politician he used to be in his younger years).

        "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:58:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It seems as if politicians making a comeback (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          attempt after a long time aren't doing very well, at least off the top of my head.

          King's coronation isn't certain anymore, Thompson is getting thumped, and let's not even talk about Kerrey.

          •  It depends on the candidates (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sylv, LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            Candidates and the states they run in matters. Coates hadn't even lived in Indiana for years and was a lobbyist for years after leaving public office but he still beat a good Democratic candidate in a moderate/conservative state in a red year. He was rusty on the stump but the red tide was more then enough. Heitkamp hasn't been in elected office for 10 years but is running by all accounts a great race. She has a good shot but the state is very difficult.

            •  Oops, forgot about Heitkamp. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY
            •  Left Her Off (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, WisJohn

              I left Heitkamp off my list because she seems to be the exception to the rule this year. I think she's been able to excel because she never left North Dakota, she's been engaged in ND politics for years even after her departure, and she was able to initially garner more personal appeal than Kerrey, Thompson, or King could. I also wonder if being a woman has had some impact on that.

              If 2010 hadn't been a Republican wave year, I think we could've held onto Evan Bayh's Senate seat. If the Republican candidate had been anyone other than Coats, I'm certain we could've hung on. Coats got into that race for the same reasons Tommy Thompson got into this year's Wisconsin Senate race - the rest of the field was filled with unacceptable conservatives. Even then, if we hadn't been swamped by a Republican wave, we probably could've held on. Ellsworth always had good messaging, and Coats' record was extremely slimey. We just couldn't cut through the wave in an already red state.

              "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

              by AndySonSon on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:20:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You really think Ellsworth could have won (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                in 2010 without coats?

                This year is substantially better and Joe Donnelly is at least as good and conservative a candidate, but he's at best even money to beat Richard Mourdock.

                •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42, Christopher Walker

                  The five candidates in the 2010 Senate race were Don Bates (businessman), Richard Behney (businessman), Dan Coats, John Hostettler (former 8th District U.S. Representative), and Marlin Stutzman (then State Senator, now 3rd District Representative). Coats only got through the primary with 39.5% of the vote, so if the conservative opposition hadn't split their vote, one of the other candidates would've gotten through - most likely Hostettler or Stutzman. If Hostettler had gotten through the primary, I'm certain we would've won. If you think Richard Mourdock is a mess of a candidacy, you should read up on Hostettler's controversies. He makes Sharron Angle and Todd Akin look like viable Senate candidates. It also would've been a rematch against Ellsworth of their 2006 House race, a contest Ellsworth won 55-32.  If Stutzman had stayed out of the race, in other words, we would've held onto this seat. Stutzman would've been a bit harder to tar if he'd been the nominee, but he was deeply tied to the sex scandal and resignation of Mark Souder in IN-03 (a mini-Roland Burris scandal), so I think he would've been pretty vulnerable too. Either way, if either one of them had just stayed out of the primary, the other one probably would've beaten Coats in the primary (Bates and Behney just played the role of spoiler) and would've gone on to lose to Ellsworth in the general election. They were that poor of candidates.

                  "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

                  by AndySonSon on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 06:11:13 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  From Comment on Kentucky tonight (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike

    GOP House gains probably top out at 4-5 seats. No mention of which seats they think are most likely to go. My guess is that it would be probably among the open Dem seats.

    Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville) faces a well funded challenge from Chris Thieneman. I don't buy this one. It seems ever year, Clark is called vulnerable, yet he easily wins and Thieneman is touted for his fundraising and popularity from when he played football, yet he has never been elected. I think Sen. Joey Pendleton (D-Hopkinsville) could be the top GOP target, mainly because President Obama will not do so well in SD-3.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:32:28 PM PDT

    •  What of SD-1? (0+ / 0-)

      Has that been quiet?  Did they also take into account the probably Dem pickups in HD-3 and that Louisville district?  Finally, has McConnell gone in or what?  Sorry for flooding you with questions like this.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:41:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was a pretty general discussion tonight (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I have not heard much on SD-1 since Fancy Farm. I think it is competitive, but I would not bet on Hubbard unless geography takes over voting.

        Dems should pickup the HD-38 in Louisville, but HD-3 is probably a tossup, not a pickup. Paducah has moved sharply to the right in the last few years. Dems did lose this as an open seat in 2008, so I do not give this automatically to the Dems. Dems also will be trying to get back their seats they lost in Scott and Clark Counties in 2010. They have a better shot in Clark County. The GOP has only a hope that Obama's unpopularity in Western and Eastern Kentucky knocks out many Democratic incumbents. Dems to have an advantage in fundraising statewide.

        As for McConnell, he seems to be more worried about himself publicly right now, but what he is doing behind the scenes is unknown.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:50:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So we've still got a good (0+ / 0-)

      chance at holding the state assembly?

      What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:53:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would say the chances of us (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

        holding the House are about 75%, which is really important, because redistricting will be next year.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 11:37:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting fact (0+ / 0-)

      Everything in that song is factually accurate.

    •  My first nerd music (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, OGGoldy

      Although it is outdated: http://www.youtube.com/...

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 09:44:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nice (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I remember hearing that in elementary school. Chemistry and metallurgy (yes, that is a serious class in the engineering world) were never my strong suit in college.

        Granted, w/r/t the Quantum Mechanics referenced in the first video was not something I studied extensively. An exgirlfriend of mine when I was in college was a physics grad student, and I found her work quite interesting. And the Higgs Boson, at the time, was something people were REALLY hoping to find). The "God Particle". Pure mass. Having everything else in the universe be massless is really a strange concept, but it looks to be true.

        Oh, and as a side note, There is a 1/535,000,000 chance that they did NOT find the Higgs Boson. And even that level of certitude is not enough to qualify it as a theory on its own.

        I would say that if I were 534,999,999/535,000,000 sure of something, I would say that I found it, with certitude. Certitude to the level where I recognize pictures of myself in my underwear, unlike a certain congressman. :)

      •  I own the complete Schoolhouse Rock box set (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, The Caped Composer

        so I guess that puts me in the nerd music club.

        Though some of the songs should probably be updated a bit.  "I'm Just a Bill" complained about sitting on Capitol Hill; he should consider himself lucky in that Congress did something and he was actually passed.  And the description of government as "Three Ring Government"--note the circus metaphor--was if anything too charitable.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 06:39:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Mine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:29:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why is the Romney Superpac in Michigan ? (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    In the last two weeks, the nearly broke Restore Our Future Superpac has utterly wasted $2.2 million in Michigan.

    •  Good news! For John McCain!!! (5+ / 0-)

      Seriously, the way the Romney campaign effort is going is very reminiscent of Sen. McCain's floundering in fall 2008.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:27:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was thinking about this last night... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, MBishop1, MichaelNY

      Although I'm sure the superpacs illegally coordinate with the candidates, the suprpacs are still independent.  If you have someone like Sheldon Adelson insist that his money be spent in Michigan 'cos he believes Fox News over reality, well the superpac will spend money in Michigan.

      I think that's what's happening here.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 06:29:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What makes you think they coordinate illegally? (0+ / 0-)

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:44:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting possibility... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, LordMike

        DeVos family or another fundie big spender might donate to ROF but under the condition that the ads air in Michigan.  I had just figured the SuperPAC is seeding the field to see if they have any chance of growth if Romney desperately needs to make a play for new states come the last month.  

        We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:55:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They probably don't want a repeat of 2008 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      borodino21, MichaelNY

      Is my theory. McCain pulling out entirely around this time of year allowed Pres. Obama to run up the score, and it was likely a big help to other Dems down ballot, e.g., Mark Schauer, Gary Peters, State House Dems, and county officials.

      Making at least at of noise even if they probably realize the state looks lost may keep the margin at closer than the 16 or so points it was last time, and maybe prop up a few of their folks running for other offices. Personally I wish they'd pull out entirely and let us repeat 2008, esp. here in Oakland County.

    •  I'm convinced Team Romney are all morons (9+ / 0-)

      Yes, I, too, saw that.  It's an absurd decision, especially at this stage.

      Political reporting has jumped around all year on how good a campaign Romney has run, it can be hard to tell in real time, but it's crystallizing now that the campaign is awful and in over their heads all along.

      The post-election reporting will reflect this, and we'll learn how the Romney campaign was fucked up all along.

      It's extremely hard to run a competent major party Presidential campaign.  There's nothing like it.  It's like a BCS bowl game quarterback suddenly being thrown into the Superbowl, where everyone is bigger, faster, stronger, more mature, more skilled, and the fans are completely unforgiving.  It makes on realize how amazing OFA really is.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:21:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Now what are the odds that Romney abandons Ohio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and goes into Pennsylvania? (Assuming the First Read report from a couple of days ago is true, and the Romney/Ryan Ohio bus tour doesn't budge the polling needle.)

        •  I'd guess there's no chance of that at all. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sacman701

          If what I've seen is any indication, they've done little to nothing in the state all year. It's certainly possible to get something going in the final few weeks, I guess, but it'd be very expensive. There are no indications that he's in any better shape in Pennsylvania than he is in Ohio, which are of course similar in size to one another. If anything, he's in worse shape, so it'd be as if he were trading being punched in the arm for being punched in the nose.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:59:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Zero (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, NMLib, MichaelNY

          They're stupid, but I can't imagine they're that stupid.  Ohio is closer than Pennsylvania and they've been investing there all along.  That automatically makes Ohio more fruitful than Pennsylvania.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:31:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Is it any more absurd than having Romney (0+ / 0-)

        himself in Pennsylvania yesterday? Off the top of my head, I'm not sure of what the differences between the two sides when it comes to finances are, for outside groups or the campaigns themselves, but they aren't short on cash, if I recall correctly. Given that, it's not the worst idea in the world to try to light a fire in Michigan. It's not the best idea, but it's far from the worst.

        But there's only one Romney* and his time is very valuable. You can run ads in a bunch of different places at once, but he can only be in one place at the same time. Why he was in Pennsylvania as opposed to Ohio or any other state is beyond me. Even if it was a logistically easy move for some reason, it makes no sense.

        *It is not yet clear whether they have manufactured a similar robot.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:54:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I still don't get why he (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        gave his staff those massive bonuses. He'd be much better off using those funds for his campaign.

        What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

        by lordpet8 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:59:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who the hell knows? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It really is puzzling, isn't it? I mean, it'd be one thing if he rewarded his low level staff in some way, just to keep them motivated, but it's not as if the high level staff is in the same position.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:27:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  that's what executives like Romney do. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBishop1, MichaelNY, lordpet8

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:33:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Why is a Romney superpac in MI? Why not? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      At this stage, Romney has essentially no chance of winning without some large "thing" that changes things.

      Still, even without a "thing", a football team losing 35-7 in the fourth quarter tries stuff.  I expect some money will be spent in PA, MI, WI, and maybe MN and even NJor CT, just like a losing team tries long bombs, end arounds, fleaflickers, etc.  They are hoping to catch lightning a bottle somehow.  They aren't just going to take a knee.

      If an expenditure in MI shows promise, they follow it up, but more likely what happens next is a few bucks will be thrown at PA or MN.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:11:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO3 (6+ / 0-)

    This looks like one of the most competitive races in the country, as Tipton won narrowly in the 2010 wave. But we never hear anything about it. Does anyone have any idea how this one is going?

    Also, how is Barrow holding up in GA12?

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:03:07 PM PDT

  •  CA-26: There will be a candidate's forum on Tues. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, lordpet8, Alibguy

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:11:21 PM PDT

  •  The Downstate IL races - IL-12, IL-13, IL-17??? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson

    I want to know why House Majority PAC cancelled a campaign ad buy for Bill Enyart in IL-12 and David Gill in IL-13.

    http://www.stltoday.com/...

    Have the Dems given up on those and are focusing everything on IL-17(Bustos) where Obama's coattails are much more likely to have a positive effect than in Central/Southern Illinois where Obama is less popular than in Peoria/Quad-Cities.

    It seems to me that these Dems are really missing an opportunity, especially in IL-17 with the Sensata issue, to not tie the Romney anchor around the neck of all the House GOPers. This would also be helpful in IL-12 with Jason Plummer, who won't release his tax returns and like Romney is a son of a businessman running like he knows something about job creation and a guy who was born on third base and thought he hit a triple.

  •  First names and political donations (0+ / 0-)

    This is an odd but interesting article on first names and percentages of donors donating a minimum of 200$ with that first name who contributed to Democrats and Republicans.  The chart in in the linked article.

    link: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 10:39:56 PM PDT

  •  The partisan divide (3+ / 0-)

    for my Louisiana map, which has 91 congressional districts all at just under 50,000 residents.

    Photobucket

    At 31 likely Democratic districts, I probably drew too many, but I tried to maximize the number of African American districts to a large extent.  I figured that shrinking the size of districts makes it much easier to draw majority minority districts, so they'd have to draw more, and also they would draw one in certain areas in order to prevent have several districts where a blue dog could win.

    How many white Democratic districts are there?  Well, considering I was drawing this as a Republican map, I only left one, which includes Tulane.  It doesn't leave Democrats much room to build a bench for statewide.  Because African Americans have been concentrated into a few districts, pretty much everything else in the state is safe Republican.

    (Two purple districts are districts where African Americans make up over 40% of the population, but Obama only got 51-52% here, making it questionable whether they would elect a black Democrat.)

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:04:27 PM PDT

  •  Colbert describes the unskewing 'phenomenon' (5+ / 0-)

    for those who might have missed it. It's hilarious.

               

    The Colbert Report Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
    "Skewed" Presidential Polls
    www.colbertnation.com
    Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog Video Archive
           
           

    20, Male, Hispanic, originally OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of the Ozarks!), currently at Princeton University

    by gigantomachyusa on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:27:15 AM PDT

  •  Unseating Two Incumbents (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Senator Brown in MA and Representative Gibson in NY

    The White Race can not survive without dairy products - Herbert Hoover (-8.75,-8.36)

    by alain2112 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:59:10 AM PDT

  •  RAND tracker shifts marginally towards Obama (7+ / 0-)

    after yesterday's one point bounce for Romney. Remains 50-43 in round numbers.

  •  IL-HD-96: Andrew Dambrauskis write-in campaign (0+ / 0-)

    In the comments section of this photo on David Gill's Facebook page, someone mentioned that Andrew Dambrauskis is running a write-in campaign against Sue Scherer (D) and Dennis Shackelford (R). Dambrauskis is apparently running to the left of Scherer, as the person who posted the comment on Gill's Facebook page is apparently related to Dambrauskis and called Scherer a DINO and "more conservative than some moderate Republicans".

    Scherer is running an unusually high number of TV ads for a state representative campaign in Illinois (I live in the Champaign-Springfield media market but in a different representative district), so she may be concerned that Dambrauskis's efforts might split the Democratic vote and hand Shackelford the seat with considerably less than 50% of the vote.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 03:17:16 AM PDT

  •  Former Wisconsin State Senator Barbara Lorman (0+ / 0-)

    In 1994, Lorman was a moderate Republican who represented the 13th State Senate district in Wisconsin. Lohrman was defeated in the Republican primary that year by Scott Fitzgerald, who is now the Republican floor leader of the Wisconsin State Senate.

    Here's an interesting thought process for everyone: if Lorman were still in the Wisconsin State Senate in 2012, would she be a Republican or a Democrat? Would there have been an Act 10?

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 03:30:00 AM PDT

    •  She'd probably have been a Republican (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      if she somehow survived being repeatedly primaried, and probably would have shifted a bit to the right a la Lazich and Darling (you'd hardly think it now, but Darling had a leadership position in Planned Parenthood about 20 years ago!). The real question would be the majority leader. If Schultz or another moderate were majority leader, Act 10 would probably be a watered down bill that would pass easily. Most likely it would be a simple ban on collective bargaining for health benefits and pensions, which frankly would be popular in Wisconsin. If current Assistant Minority Leader Grothman were the Majority Leader, Act 10 might be even worse. And anything in between is possible.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 11:05:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MO Sen: Akin has a better shot of winning (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, lordpet8

    than many people think.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 04:35:48 AM PDT

  •  Obama could nearly replicate the 2008 map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, Sylv

    with half the popular vote margin of '08.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 04:49:45 AM PDT

  •  Ohio Republicans deeply pessimistic (10+ / 0-)

    about Romey's chances in the state, according to Walter Shapiro.

    They weren't prepared to go on the record but he claims they think Romney is probably going to lose Ohio by 5 points or more.

  •  Most GOP Operatives CONCEDING Ohio to (10+ / 0-)

    President Obama...

    An Eye-popping Article from Walter Shapiro.

    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    •  That's huge! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      NO Republican presidential candidate has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Republicans, to me, seem to be more interested in flipping Wisconsin than actually winning the presidency.

      Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 03:15:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen has Obama up 48-46 today (6+ / 0-)

    49-47 with leaners.

  •  Why was Romney in Pennsylvania on Friday? (4+ / 0-)

    That's what Politico said.

    Amusingly enough, it doesn't mention how OFA is thinking of making a late push into Arizona. That alone is an indication of how badly things are going for Mitt, Inc.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:51:15 AM PDT

  •  Romney has apparently memorized (9+ / 0-)

    several zingers for the debate.

    Why do I get the feeling this could be as a bad as Palin's "say it aint so, Joe", or Hillary's "Change you can Xerox."
    •  He's already so unnatural... (7+ / 0-)

      Having him come off even more canned doesn't seem like a good idea.  Also he could come off as desperate at best or a dick at worst.  Not to mention any debate prep isn't in front of 4000 audience members with the knowledge 20M people are watching and the pressure knowing this is your last chance to shake things up.  

      Pres Obama could just keep playing it cool, saying something like "Was that another one of your planned zingers Mitt?  How about you answer the questions and tell the American people specifics to your plans and not worry about your canned one liners".

      Also the crowds are not supposed to react - will this be better policed than during the primaries?  Also will Romney listen to the directive or will he bus in supporters to be rowdy because he needs the "win" and his zingers seem set up to get the crowds whooping and cheering.  

      Something else that might be smart to do - set up web pages with likely attack topics like Solyndra and Fast and Furious and then explain them and lay out the facts so when Romney tries to bring these up knowing they can't be explained in 60 second rebuttal time limits, simply give a quick answer and then say go to "ObamaRomneyDebate.com and click on the Solyndra link for a complete explanation of why this is nothing but a hyped up phony distraction controversy by a desperate Romney".

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:10:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

        The best way to combat canned zingers is... with canned zingers.

        Americans eat that stuff up.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:26:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As I recall, there was no crowd reaction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        in the general election debates last time, but there was in the primaries. So, for whatever reason, the crowd doesnt react during the general election debates. Maybe before the debate, Jim Lehrer gives them a stern lecture on reacting. :)

        I agree, on the webpages. Although I can think of some good 60 second responses. An Inspector General report recently cleared Holder in F&F. Obama can mention this, that it was a field driven tactic, a form of which began in the Bush admin, and Holder immediately took action when he found out about it.

        On Solyndra, I imagine the Romney charge will be crony capitalism, an Obama fundraiser getting government money. Here, I really hope we get a response like this:

        Governor, the energy loan guarantee program was a bipartisan program. And  there was a diverse group of investors in Solyndra, including people who were Republicans. But one reason you know there was an Obama fundraiser among the investors? Because I release the names of the people who fundraise for my campaign. You have chosen not to do that. Will you pledge today to let us see who is raising money for your campaign? Dont the American people deserve to know that?

        •  The response to Solyndra is pretty simple (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Hamtree, MichaelNY, WisJohn, SaoMagnifico

          "First of all, Governor Romney knows a thing or two about investing in failed companies. The difference is I didn't make off with millions when it happened."

          •  That is better then my response (0+ / 0-)

            My response being, "The Solyndra loan defualt which was part of many in the Green energy loan program was around 1% of those loans far lowering then private market defaults; furthermore the Green energy loan program has created thousands of jobs and resulted in 4-8$ in private investment for every 1$ in government investments. Also the govt. receives the assets of defaulted companies and therefor will not lose much money.

            As you can see My response is shit in comparison

            Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

            by Hamtree on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:14:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  You're actually right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          All of the general election debate moderators say at the beginning that any audible reaction at all is unwelcome.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:26:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Any debate strategy that depends (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        on people going to a website is pretty doomed. Anyone willing to do that level of research on a presidential race has already made up their mind.

    •  He's also now Windows-compatible. (nm) (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, KingofSpades, sawolf

      nm

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:32:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They all do that now (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      One of the reasons debates are BS and a total waste of time.

      There you go again
      Where's the beef?
      That answer is as clear as Boston Harbor.
      You're no Jack Kennedy.

      And that's just the 80s.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 08:54:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm sure they'll be funnier than (0+ / 0-)

      Leave it to Beaver!

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:56:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nobody thinks Mitt Romney is funny. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, WisJohn

      We have never seen him make a sincere-sounding joke, and you can't change public perception of yourself on a moments notice. This is a terrible idea because people will just think he's being insincere because he's not playing into thei. He should be pretending to be a policy wonk not pretending to be Sarah Palin.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 11:36:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The diary about the Basque Country is published (5+ / 0-)

    I include the tag of Daily Kos elections, then you will see it fast here.

    I hope you like.

  •  Once Rasmussen adjust his Party ID... (0+ / 0-)

    I expect Obama ahead by the same margin he's holding in the other National Polls.

  •  Latest PPP Florida Poll: (17+ / 0-)

    Obama: 9%
    Romney: 89%

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
    As a public service we have decided to release the unskewed results version of our recent Florida poll:
  •  Zeke Miller says Obama going to WI (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    on Thursday. Is this state closer than it seems? The RCP average is 7.8, and even Ras had it by 3. I think there Restore our Future is running ads, there, but I dont know how much effort the Romney campaign itself is putting in this state.

    Is there a bit of chess on both sides? Romney doing fundraising in PA to try and lure OFA back there, and Obama doing the same in WI? Especially since it's Ryan's homestate, and we already know Romney is losing his.

    Obama's WI event could be fundraising, Miller's tweet didnt specify.

  •  ct-sen! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    paul ryan's coming to ct monday for three events, and neither linda mcmahon nor andrew rorabach (ct-05) want to be seen any where near him. i'm not sure about the other republican house candidates.

    Ryan, Biden Raising Big Money in Connecticut

    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

    by thankgodforairamerica on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:26:15 AM PDT

  •  A valid way to unskew the polls (0+ / 0-)

    or at least the polling average.

    Throw out the two most extreme polls, the best one for Obama and the best one for Romney. That might give a clearer picture of the race.

    In Ohio, for example, that would mean getting rid of the Quinnipiac Obama +10 poll that conservatives dislike. It would also mean throwing out Romney's best result, Gravis marketing's Obama +1.

    In this case, the news isnt great for the GOP. The avg of the five remaining polls does change, it stays at Obama +5.4.

  •  are the voting rights act's days numbered? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    NY Times:

    The justices are also quite likely to take another look at the constitutionality of a signature legacy of the civil rights era, the Voting Rights Act of 1965. In 2009, the court signaled that it had reservations about the part of the law that requires federal review of changes in election procedures in parts of the country with a history of discrimination, mostly the South.

    “We are now a very different nation” than the one that first enacted the Voting Rights Act, Chief Justice Roberts wrote for himself and seven other justices. “Whether conditions continue to justify such legislation is a difficult constitutional question we do not answer today.”

    The chief justice seemed to invite Congress to revise the law, but lawmakers have taken no action.

    Challenges to the law have arisen in several lawsuits in the current election season, including ones concerning redistricting and voter identification requirements.

    “It will be interesting to see if the justices worry half as much about the emerging restrictions on voting as they worried about restrictions on political spending,” said Pamela S. Karlan, a law professor at Stanford.

    I'm not optimistic.
  •  Gallup stays 50-44 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    but approval drops to 48-47 so must be a weak sample or two in the last few days.

  •  Why is PPP polling in Texas? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    Any idea of who or what group it might be for?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:14:04 AM PDT

  •  Possible reason NC is more blue in '12 (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.redracinghorses.com/...

    (Warning: I haven't checked the numbers. Something seems off with them -- unless there's a substantial number of "decline to state" w/r/t race, which is possible)

    Change in NC registration between now and 10/4/08:

    Compared to October 4th, 2008 its

    Democrats +54,241
    Republicans +54,403
    Independents +328,106
    Libertarians +15,215

    So everyone has gained. Republicans slightly more than Democrats.

    Race

    Whites +163,405
    African Americans +168,413
    Hispanics +45,063
    Native Americans +5,162

    Note how there are as many new African American voters as there are White voters. For comparison, in '08 in NC, there were something like 6m registered voters, and 4.3 million votes cast for President. So eyeballing, that looks like a baseline gain of just under 2% for the President's re-election.
  •  Starting a petition... (20+ / 0-)

    To add Syed Taj to Orange to Blue.

    "Like" or reply affirmatively to this post and I'll put your name on a PM to Kos roughly 24 hours from now.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:24:00 PM PDT

    •  count me in! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

      by lordpet8 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:57:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I know redistricting made it more Republican (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, redrelic17, MichaelNY

      but this district was one of our biggest missed opportunities in the last waves.  We ran nobodies against that dope and yet did really well in that area.  Despite redistricting this is still a great opportunity.  Bentivolio is a nut.  Taj is a decent guy with a decent campaign.  The district isn't that Republican.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:15:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Put my name on there. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If there's one race Kos could do something positive, this would be it.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:29:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Count me in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and come up with a list of reasons why Taj is deserving of our support. It's a bit of a low-profile race given the unique situation there, but it's one where the netroots could make a big difference.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:46:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's my list (4+ / 0-)

        1. Syed Taj has served his community for decades. The people of Canton County who have elected his trustee, his patients as a medical doctor, and others who have benefited from his leadership and expertise know that he's the kind of person who would change Congress for the better and always work hard to represent his constituents.

        2. Kerry Bentivolio is absolutely unacceptable. He abused his students during his short stint as a schoolteacher, he appeared in a film embracing the 9/11 "truth" conspiracy movement, and he is a known loose cannon.

        3. This district supported then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008. Local Democrats have been reluctant to run here, with Rep. Gary Peters preferring to primary Rep. Hansen Clarke in a nearby district rather than take on then-Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. But Syed Taj has stepped up and boldly taken this district on. If Obama won it, Taj can win it.

        4. Kerry Bentivolio is backed by Sen. Rand Paul, a nasty piece of work who demonstrated utter classlessness in his election to the Senate two years ago, and who is clearly seeking to build a coalition of like-minded individuals. One of Rand Paul's allies and Bentivolio's would-be colleagues in the Michigan delegation, Rep. Justin Amash, is famous for wasting space in Congress by voting "present" or "no" on almost every bill. Michigan doesn't need another Justin Amash, and Rand Paul doesn't need another henchman.

        5. Congress currently has no Indian-American members. Syed Taj would add to the diversity of the institution and represent a constituency that has historically received little representation in elected office.

        6. Syed Taj is a medical doctor who understands healthcare. At a time when radical Republicans are trying to end Medicare and Medicaid, repeal Obamacare, and curtail women's healthcare choices, we need somebody like Syed Taj who can speak from experience and be a voice of reason in Congress.

        7. Syed Taj is a true American success story. He came to this country as a young man to look for opportunity, following the promise of America enshrined at the base of the Statue of Liberty. As a naturalized American citizen, he has been able to create a better life for himself and his family, while being a force for good in his community. He represents the America that we aspire to be -- and the America the Republicans are conspiring to take away.

        8. This is a winnable race. National Democrats may be leery of it, resigned to losing it after failing to run strongly against Thaddeus McCotter and confused by the bizarre dynamics of its primary election and special election this year. But make no mistake: this is an Obama district where the Republican nominee is unlikable, unstable, and extreme even by Republican standards. We can win this seat, and Syed Taj is our candidate. We should support him in order to add to what will hopefully be a strong Democratic minority if not an outright majority in the 113th Congress.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:45:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney leads 42-46 in Arizona (4+ / 0-)

    That's according to GOP-leaning Highground. Story here.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:16:01 PM PDT

  •  I am SO sad. (12+ / 0-)

    Obama is coming to Madison the day I am leaving Madison at 9 AM. Bummer.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally get a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:19:03 PM PDT

  •  Why hasn't Donnelly (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, WisJohn, jj32

    Run ads on the auto bailout yet? That would seen to be an issue that would play well in IN.

  •  Sununu comments on how Obama climbs stairs (14+ / 0-)

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    Every time you see him climbing up or down stairs, he elevates his arms and does this pumping, trying to look like a well-trained and trim dynamic individual. It’s something he does all the time, particularly when he’s climbing up to a podium to speak or address a crowd. This president understands that he got elected on the basis of style and not substance, and I think he’s trying to preserve style.
    I wasn't aware that Obama's stair climbing helped get him elected.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:19:56 PM PDT

  •  Question aimed at DCCyclone and any (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    other person knowledgeable about Virginia. Is Mark Warner seriously considering a bid for Governor?

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:49:23 PM PDT

    •  He's left the door wide open (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen, MichaelNY

      Hasn't really come straight at the issue. Story here.

      In an interview with NBC12's Ryan Nobles, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner very obviously sidestepped a question about his possible interest in another run for governor, saying that he wanted to approach the next year "one thing at a time".

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 02:58:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes. Absolutely yes. (3+ / 0-)

      Mark Warner has always WANTED another term as Governor.  I think he just saw a bird in the hand in 2008 with the Senate seat, so he took it rather than wait for the 2009 Governor's election.

      I have no idea what the odds are that he'll run, since that is completely subjective on his part and I don't have inside sources with Warner personally.

      I won't be surprised if Warner runs next year, and I won't be surprised if he doesn't.  But the latest dodge on the subject to a reporter makes me hopeful he'll do it.

      Anyone here not living in Virginia should want him to skip VA-Gov and run for reelection to keep the Senate seat secure.

      But I live here and am tired of GOP rule in the state.  Warner is a lock next year if he runs.  He gets to appoint his replacement upon being sworn in, and that's our risk:  there is no slam dunk for someone who is a lock to win the election in 2014.

      The big risk is, what if Warner runs and wins, appoints as good a replacement as possible, but then the idle Bob McDonnell runs for the Senate seat?  McDonnell will be favored to win, unless he becomes unpopular the next 2 years......which he has the political skills to avoid, if something out of his control doesn't cause him trouble.

      But for me personally, a Democratic Governor is important.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 06:54:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If he runs (0+ / 0-)

        Does he resign the Senate when he wins, allowing Bob McDonnell to appoint his replacement? Or does he pull a Frank Murkowski?

        If he's a good Democrat I'd hope he'd do the latter, but he could conceivably allow McDonnell to appoint a replacement for the sake of "centrism".

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 12:35:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He appoints himself, McDonnell does not (5+ / 0-)

          Warner would resign from the Senate effective upon his swearing in as Governor, so that he's the Governor who gets to appoint.

          Warner is no Evan Bayh or Joe Lieberman, he's a loyal party guy who will do right by his party.  He is on policy and ideology ultimately on the righthand side of the Democratic Party.  But he rarely sticks a needle in his own party's eye.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 06:58:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  McDonnell having eyes on 2016 WH run... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        would that discourage him from running for the Senate because it would be come a campaign issue.

        We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 10:14:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-AD-44: Knilans (R) backs out of debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Knilans represents an urban Janesville district, AD-44, in the Wisconsin State Assembly that wasn't drastically changed in redistricting that I'm guessing is heavily Democratic. Knilans's Democratic opponent is Deb Kolste, by the way.

    Jenni Dye, a Dane County Supervisor from Fitchburg who grew up in Janesville, mentioned Knilans backing out of the proposed debate on her Twitter feed.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 03:11:01 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, Knilans is screwed anyways (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, KingofSpades

      We only lost this district in 2010 because our candidate fucked a payday loan lobbyist and then changed his position on payday loans. And even then, it was a close thing. Republicans made no attempt to save this seat in redistricting - they more or less triaged Knilans and Wynn to save Loudenbeck. I'm pretty sure this seat is like 67% Obama.

      •  Knilans was an accidental Assemblyman (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        The only reason Wynn has a very slim chance of winning re-election is because his opponent is a carpetbagger (Andy Jorgensen, to be exact). Even then, Jorgensen is strongly favored against Wynn. Jorgensen is running a very strong campaign, in fact, Lori Compas and Russ Feingold threw a giant birthday party for Jorgensen on the campaign trail not too long ago. Jorgensen moved into Wynn's district after his former hometown of Fort Atkinson was drawn into the heavily-Republican AD-33.

        Knilans has zero chance of winning, and running away from a debate proves it.

        Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 03:54:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 43rd is a bit less heavily democratic (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, DownstateDemocrat

          like 60% instead of 67% Obama. Which is why Wynn looks like he has an outside chance of holding on. I don't think the "carpetbagging" hurts Jorgensen - he barely moved. I general, though, Jorgensen is a very strong candidate - He's probably the favorite for the state Senate seat in the hopeful event that Tim Cullen retires in 2014. In fact, considering Cullen's frequent episodes, he might even be able to win a labor-backed primary, but he's probably too risk adverse for that.

          •  Dane Co. Supervisor Jenni Dye may consider (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Christopher Walker

            ...moving back to Janesville (she grew up there, but currently lives in Fitchburg, in Dane County) in order to run in SD-15 in 2014. If Jon Erpenbach retires or seeks higher office in 2014, SD-27 (where Dye actually lives) will be an open seat, and pro-choice groups would back her if she ran for Erpenbach's seat in that case.

            Another SD-15 2014 possibility is Janis Ringhand (currently running for re-election to the Assembly in AD-45). Yet another possibility is either Eric Compas, a geography professor at UW-Whitewater, or Lori Compas, the executive director of the Wisconsin Business Alliance, a progressive business organization, and unsuccessful candidate in the recall attempt against SD-13 Republican state senator Scott Fitzgerald. Eric and Lori are husband and wife, by the way. If either Eric or Lori ran for Cullen's seat in 2014, they'd have to move from Fort Atkinson, which was drawn into the overwhelmingly-Republican SD-11, and that's not likely to happen. Mary Erpenbach, Jon Erpenbach's sister and Russ Feingold's second ex-wife, lives in Beloit and may also run for Cullen's seat in 2014.

            Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:48:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I like Janis a lot (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Christopher Walker

              and I think she could make a go of it if she ran (I'd probably even vote for her over Jorgensen), but my guess is she isn't interested. She'll be 64 by then, and my guess is she just wants to serve out a couple more terms in the Assembly and retire.

              Jenni Dye has basically no base in Rock County politics, so the move would make no sense whatsoever for her. She may have been born in Janesville, but she's a creature of Dane County.

              And I really don't want to have comment on the Compas obsession again. In a Democratic open seat, we'll probably have multiple serious candidates running, we don't need someone who's never held office before to move into the district.

              •  Lori Compas for Governor...of Illinois??? (0+ / 0-)

                Lori recently launched the Wisconsin Business Alliance, a liberal/progressive business organization, and, being from Illinois, I absolutely loved this quote from her:

                I'm not interested in policies that would woo a company to come over here from Illinois or another state to try and get a tax break.
                You'd think I'd be quite receptive of the thought of Lori Compas moving to Illinois to run for Governor. Actually, if she carpetbagged into Illinois to run for Governor in 2014, I wouldn't support her. Lori is a nice person with a pleasant personality, but she's got a lifelong gig as the executive director of the Wisconsin Business Alliance, as that already appears to be more successful than the Recall Fitz movement ever could be.

                We have our own Democrats here in Illinois. We don't need Lori Compas, or any other out-of-state Democrat for that matter, moving here to mess around with our politics.

                Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

                by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 11:22:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  who is Lori Compas? (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Audrid, bfen, wwmiv, Christopher Walker

                  this is the first I've heard of her.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 04:02:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Political activist from Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

                    Specifically, she attempted to recall the Republican leader of the Wisconsin State Senate, Scott Fitzgerald, but lost 58-41. However, I regard Lori as a political hero for standing up to one of the most powerful politicians in Wisconsin when nobody else had enough courage to do so. Every time Republicans talk about how "courage won" in the Wisconsin recalls, I laugh at them and point to three individuals, Jessica King, Jennifer Shilling, and John Lehman, for actually winning their recall elections and taking back the Wisconsin State Senate, and I also point to Lori Compas for having the courage to stand up to Big Fitz when everyone else was too scared to do so.

                    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

                    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 03:12:35 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Loebsack On The Airwaves In Des Moines..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    ....as of tonight.  First time he's ever been on the air in the Des Moines market.  No sign of Archer yet.

  •  Many of you are too pessimistic. (4+ / 0-)

     For example, here's a poll showing Murphy beating west.
       If the election were today, I think we'd get 210 seats. But it's not. House races develop later, and just because a race is "Lean Republican" now does not mean it will stay that way.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 01:29:58 PM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site