The acclaimed Des Moines Register poll of Iowa is out today and shows Obama ahead of Romney, 49% to 45%. Ann Selzer, the pollster, is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pollster in the country.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
The acclaimed Des Moines Register poll of Iowa is out today and shows Obama ahead of Romney, 49% to 45%. Ann Selzer, the pollster, is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pollster in the country.
All the talk from the right lately about polls being "skewed" reminds me of the 2008 Democratic primary, when the Des Moines Register poll right before the Iowa caucuses showed Obama poised to win by a big margin on the back of record turnout. The Clinton campaign argued that the poll's internals were completely ridiculous and assumed such favorable weighting and turnout to Obama that it couldn't possibly be right. Clinton campaign Mark Penn assured everyone that would listen that the turnout would be more normal and that Clinton would win. Then the poll turned out to be exactly right, nailing Obama's victory margin and the record turnout.
Betting that all the polls are wrong is a bet that almost always loses, and funny enough, it's an argument you hear pretty much every election by the side that goes on to lose.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.