Skip to main content

The Polltracker chart does not include the Dispatch poll out this morning as of this writing.

A trio of interesting newspaper polls just out in the last twelve hours show an advantage for the Blue Team.

Ohio


In Ohio, Columbus Dispatch: Obama 52 51 Romney 41 42 (+9). The two were tied at 45 in August.

What's interesting here is not simply the confirmation of an Obama lead. The internals show Obama splitting the senior vote and winning everyone else. This, with Ohioans casting ballots starting Tuesday.  And not to put too fine a point on it, this from National Review:

In terms of the broader election, I don’t want to be the one who contradicts Karl Rove’s view that Romney can win without Ohio, but he can’t. It isn’t just that historically no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio’s electoral votes that “proves” that point. It also is the fact that Ohio is a bell-weather state, so if a candidate cannot win Ohio — especially a candidate operating under a very-low-margin-of-error strategy — the likelihood that that candidate wins enough of the other five to nine toss-up states is not high. We are seeing that in the polling results in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The election isn’t over, but it appears that Romney will need a big Obama misstep to win.

Iowa


The Des Moines Register's go-to pollster in IA, Ann Selzer, has Obama up 49-45 (+4). There hasn't been a DMR poll since February (Romney was up by 2).

Romney leads by a huge margin on who would be better for business,

But so far they’re not convinced Romney will do a better job of shoring up the economy. He trails slightly (47 percent to 46 percent) in voters’ perception of who would be the better economy fixer.
Also note:
Thirty-seven days from Election Day, Iowa has few undecided voters left — just 2 percent.

But 10 percent of likely voters say they could still change their minds. Of that group, more than half are independent voters.

“The 10 percent persuadable could change the race,” Democratic strategist Celinda Lake said.

The Polltracker chart includes the DMR poll out last night.

Massachusetts Senate


The Boston Globe has Elizabeth Warren (D) over Scott Brown (R-inc) by 5, 43-38 with 18% undecided. That reverses a May 2 point Brown lead. From the Globe:

This survey is the sixth of eight public polls taken this month that show Warren ahead.

Warren’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning a spread of as much as 8 percentage points between the candidates would still statistically count as a dead heat. Still, the survey is sobering for Brown six weeks before the election.

“It’s trending away from Brown,’’ said Smith. “Brown right now is not doing well enough among Democrats to offset the advantage that ­Warren has,” said Smith. “That’s just such a big obstacle to overcome for any Republican candidate” in Massachusetts.

The Polltracker chart does not include the Boston Globe poll out this morning as of this writing.

Finally, keep in mind the under-appreciated RAND poll shows a stable race today.


Since the narrative from the media will be straining for a Romney comeback to make this a race, keep in mind where we are the Sunday before the debates.

Originally posted to Greg Dworkin on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 06:55 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site