On Wednesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its first list of candidates for the 2012 edition of the Red to Blue program, which highlights the most competitive House races in the nation and offers those campaigns assistance. The DCCC rolled out two different levels of races, which they've used in the past: "Red to Blue" proper and "Emerging Races"—contests that haven't yet reached top-tier status but may in the future. (In 2008, they eventually added a third and lowest rung, known as "Races to Watch.")
Both of these categories are further broken out into two sub-groups: races where the D-Trip is actually endorsing a candidate and races where the primary is still unsettled and the DCCC is formally candidate-agnostic but which it expects or hopes will be competitive. Also, this cycle, due at least in part to redistricting, the D-Trip has created a brand-new classification called "Majority Makers," which lists Democrats running in blue seats who, it seems, they want to give a shout-out to but who don't necessarily need much help and aren't on the standard "Red to Blue" ladder.
In any event, we've broken out the list into its various parts, and added information about which party controls which seat, and who the incumbent is, if any. We've also included the percentage of the vote Barack Obama received in each district, where available. (Note: R2B = Red to Blue, ER = Emerging Races, MM = Majority Makers.) One thing to keep in mind is that traditionally, the DCCC rolls out Red to Blue in multiple waves over the course of the election cycle, so this is almost certainly just an initial lists.
Up first, Red to Blue candidates:
Class |
District |
Candidate |
Incumbent |
Party |
Obama
%age |
R2B |
CA-07 |
Ami Bera |
Dan Lungren |
(R) |
51 |
R2B |
CA-10 |
Jose Hernandez |
Jeff Denham |
(R) |
50 |
R2B |
CA-41 |
Mark Takano |
OPEN |
(R) |
59 |
R2B |
CO-03 |
Sal Pace |
Scott Tipton |
(R) |
48 |
R2B |
FL-08 |
Val Demings |
Daniel Webster |
(R) |
|
R2B |
FL-13 |
Keith Fitzgerald |
Vern Buchanan |
(R) |
|
R2B |
IA-04 |
Christie Vilsack |
Steve King |
(R) |
48 |
R2B |
IN-02 |
Brendan Mullen |
OPEN |
(D) |
50 |
R2B |
ND-AL |
Pam Gulleson |
OPEN |
(R) |
45 |
R2B |
NH-02 |
Ann McLane Kuster |
Charlie Bass |
(R) |
|
R2B |
NV-03 |
John Oceguera |
Joe Heck |
(R) |
|
R2B |
NY-25 |
Dan Maffei |
Ann Marie Buerkle |
(R) |
|
R2B |
OH-06 |
Charlie Wilson |
Bill Johnson |
(R) |
|
R2B |
PA-08 |
Kathy Boockvar |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
(R) |
53 |
R2B |
TX-14 |
Nick Lampson |
OPEN |
(R) |
|
R2B |
VA-02 |
Paul Hirschbiel |
Scott Rigell |
(R) |
|
R2B |
WA-10 |
Denny Heck |
OPEN |
NEW |
|
R2B |
WI-08 |
Jamie Wall |
Reid Ribble |
(R) |
|
Many of these names are exactly those that observers would expect to be on this list, like attorney Annie Kuster and physician Ami Bera, both excellent fundraisers who ran terrific races against a tough headwind in 2010 and are back to finish the job this time. A few (Dan Maffei, Charlie Wilson and Nick Lampson) are ex-Reps. making comeback bids, in order of ascending difficulty. Some names are a little more surprising, like attorney Kathy Boockvar, who only launched her campaign a week ago but must have made a good impression since then. Army vet Brendan Mullen, running in the only Dem-held district here, is also a bit unexpected, given how challenging it'll be to defend this seat. (Don't be fooled by that gaudy Obama figure, a high-water mark for sure.)
The D-Trip is also looking to play offense in a couple of tough districts, like VA-02 and ND-AL. They must think investor Paul Hirschbiel and ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson have some chops. Most of these, though, are fairly swing seats, with Riverside Community College Trustee Mark Takano probably in the cat-bird seat, given CA-41's favorable lean and open status.
Next are the Red to Blue races without specific candidate endorsements:
Class |
District |
Incumbent |
Party |
Obama
%age |
R2B |
AZ-01 |
OPEN |
(R) |
|
R2B |
CA-26 |
OPEN |
(R) |
56 |
R2B |
CA-31 |
Gary Miller |
(R) |
56 |
R2B |
CA-47 |
OPEN |
(D) |
58 |
R2B |
CA-52 |
Brian Bilbray |
(R) |
55 |
R2B |
CO-06 |
Mike Coffman |
(R) |
54 |
R2B |
CT-05 |
OPEN |
(D) |
|
R2B |
FL-22 |
Allen West |
(R) |
|
R2B |
IL-08 |
Joe Walsh |
(R) |
62 |
R2B |
IL-10 |
Bob Dold |
(R) |
63 |
R2B |
IL-11 |
Judy Biggert |
(R) |
61 |
R2B |
IL-12 |
OPEN |
(D) |
55 |
R2B |
IL-17 |
Bobby Schilling |
(R) |
60 |
R2B |
MD-06 |
Roscoe Bartlett |
(R) |
56 |
R2B |
MI-01 |
Dan Benishek |
(R) |
50 |
R2B |
MN-08 |
Chip Cravaack |
(R) |
|
R2B |
NM-01 |
OPEN |
(D) |
|
R2B |
WA-01 |
OPEN |
(D) |
|
As you can see, these are all swingish-to-light-blue seats, with some more defense thrown in on this side of the ledger. And while the DCCC will almost certainly remain officially neutral in the primaries here, there are undoubtedly some candidates they are rooting for over others. One is probably ex-State Rep. Gary McDowell, who ran last time in MI-01 when the seat became open. I could be wrong, though: He faces Indian tribal leader Derek Bailey, who won't file his first fundraising report until the end of the month and may wow us. Either way, though, this is probably the toughest race on this list, perhaps along with AZ-01, where I'd guess that the D-Trip would like to see ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick as the nominee.
It's also interesting that CA-47 is on this list rather than the one above. State Sen. Alan Lowenthal seemingly is the only plausible Democrat in the race, but his fundraising has been abysmal and the D-Trip may yet be hoping for someone else to enter.
Next are the Emerging Races candidates:
Class |
District |
Candidate |
Incumbent |
Party |
Obama
%age |
ER |
AR-01 |
Clark Hall |
Rick Crawford |
(R) |
39 |
ER |
CA-36 |
Raul Ruiz |
Mary Bono Mack |
(R) |
50 |
ER |
FL-02 |
Leonard Bembry |
Steve Southerland |
(R) |
|
ER |
IN-08 |
Dave Crooks |
Larry Bucshon |
(R) |
48 |
ER |
OK-02 |
Rob Wallace |
OPEN |
(D) |
34 |
ER |
PA-06 |
Manan Trivedi |
Jim Gerlach |
(R) |
53 |
ER |
PA-15 |
Jackson Eaton |
Charlie Dent |
(R) |
52 |
ER |
TN-04 |
Eric Stewart |
Scott DesJarlais |
(R) |
|
ER |
TX-23 |
Pete Gallego |
Quico Canseco |
(R) |
|
ER |
VA-10 |
John Douglass |
Frank Wolf |
(R) |
|
ER |
WI-01 |
Rob Zerban |
Paul Ryan |
(R) |
|
ER |
WI-07 |
Pat Kreitlow |
Sean Duffy |
(R) |
|
Here, as you'd expect, the races get tougher. Just by way of example, a number of candidates listed are current or former state legislators (like State Rep. Leonard Bembry, ex-State Rep. Dave Crooks, and State Sen. Eric Stewart), one ran a creditable race last year against a tough incumbent (physician Manan Trivedi), and one has some pretty impressive military credentials (retired Air Force General John Douglass). All of these guys will need to hustle hard and catch some lucky breaks to make it into the top tier, though.
One surprising inclusion is former State Sen. Pat Kreitlow. Given that Sean Duffy has been targeted almost since the day he took office, I'd have expected WI-07 to be on the main Red to Blue list, but Kreitlow's fundraising hasn't been particularly impressive.
Next are the Emerging Races without specific candidate endorsements:
Class |
District |
Incumbent |
Party |
Obama
%age |
ER |
AZ-09 |
OPEN |
NEW |
|
ER |
IL-13 |
Tim Johnson |
(R) |
55 |
ER |
MT-AL |
OPEN |
(R) |
47 |
ER |
NY-13 |
Mike Grimm |
(R) |
|
ER |
NY-19 |
Nan Hayworth |
(R) |
|
ER |
SC-07 |
OPEN |
NEW |
|
A couple of the races on this list are only just now getting underway, like AZ-09 and NY-13, where candidates began declaring very recently. I'd be surprised, for instance, if AZ-09 didn't reach full-fledged R2B status before long. Most worrisome here is IL-13, a seat that I'm sure Democrats expected to be an easy pickup when they redrew Illinois' congressional map last year. Unfortunately, GOP Rep. Tim Johnson decided to seek re-election here, and Democrats struggled in their recruitment efforts. Again, I imagine that the DCCC has an unstated preference here (for state’s attorney Matt Goetten over physician David Gill), but evidently neither man has demonstrated sufficient prowess to reach full-blown Red to Blue yet.
The biggest surprise here is SC-07, a brand-new district that is decidedly red. Democrats did land a legitimate candidate in the form of State Rep. Ted Vick, but I still wouldn't have considered this a major pickup opportunity, so the D-Trip may know something the rest of us don't.
And lastly, the Majority Makers:
Class |
District |
Candidate |
Incumbent |
Party |
Obama
%age |
MM |
FL-27 |
Alan Grayson |
OPEN |
NEW |
|
MM |
NV-04 |
Steven Horsford |
OPEN |
NEW |
|
MM |
TX-20 |
Joaquin Castro |
OPEN |
(D) |
|
While TX-20 is likely to remain a very blue seat and State Rep. Joaquin Castro should have no problems there at all, FL-27 may or may not be especially winnable for ex-Rep. Alan Grayson, at least in the primary. A map that has already passed the state Senate creates a new 27th that is 40 percent Hispanic and would probably be most hospitable to a Puerto Rican politician, but nothing is final yet. Meanwhile, NV-04 is no slam-dunk either: While State Sen. Steven Horsford appears well-situated, Republicans aren't giving up without a fight, and have one if not two legitimate candidates lined up. Personally, I'd be playing it safer if I were drawing up these lists.
There are also a few noteworthy races not on any list. A few off the top of my head: NH-01, where ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is trying to make a comeback against the man who beat her last cycle, Rep. Frank Guinta (though others are also seeking the Democratic nod) ... AR-04, a Dem-held open seat where Democrats had landed a state senator, Gene Jeffress ... CA-21, an open swing seat where Democrats still don't have a candidate ... MI-05, a potentially swingy open seat but one where the D-Trip must feel pretty good about our like nominee, former county Treasurer Dan Kildee ... NY-20 & NY-24, swing seats we lost in 2010 but haven't had a lot of luck recruiting for this cycle (especially surprising in the 24th, where incumbent Richard Hanna may not seek re-election due to health issues)... and IN-09, where the pool of candidates also includes a retired Air Force general (Jonathan George).
Overall, though, I think this is a good first list. Democrats need 25 pickups to regain control of the House of Representatives, and there are already 30 GOP-held or newly-created seats on the main Red to Blue tier. The one silver lining to getting so badly hammered in 2010 is that we don't have a whole lot of vulnerable members left, so for the most part, the 2012 House elections will be played on offense for us. But there's a ton of work left to be done between now and November, and just because we have a shot at victory certainly doesn't mean we'll win. This is only the beginning.
Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 7:44 PM PT: Here's another surprising omission: State Rep. Luis Garcia, running against freshman David Rivera in FL-25. Garcia didn't raised a ton in 3Q (~$100K), but still: He's a state legislator and he's running against one of the most damaged Republicans in the country. You'd think that'd at least be good enough for Emerging Races, no?