Abraham Lincoln lost his birth state of Kentucky, but won his official home state of residence, Illinois. Woodrow Wilson lost his home state of New Jersey, but won his birth state of Virginia. Richard M. Nixon lost his home state of New York, but won his birth state of California. Both Bushes lost their birth states, but won their home state of Texas. In total, there have been six men to ascend to the White House who have lost either their birth state or home state, but not both. Only one man has ever taken the White House without winning either his home state (Tennessee) or his birth state (North Carolina), James K. Polk, our eleventh President.
Why is this relevant? While winning one's home and birth states does not guarantee victory, out of 55 presidential elections, candidates who lost either their home or birth state also lost the election more than 75% of the time. In short, if those who have your measure can't be convinced to pull the lever for you, it's a bad omen. No wonder the prediction market is bullish on Obama.
Mitt Romney is going to lose his home state of Massachusetts, and lose it badly. Here in his birth state of Michigan, where we prefer our industry and major cities not bankrupt, he is on track for a double-digit loss as well. There has been a lot of talk -- rightfully so -- about how Romney's chances run through Ohio. In one sense, this is true. If he can win Ohio (or if Jon Husted can manage to misplace enough Cuyahoga County ballots), Romney could conceivably win the election if he takes every single other swing state (including Wisconsin) except Florida. Or if he gets Ohio and Florida, he only needs to grab Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, and Nevada as well. Those are some pretty big "ifs," but the math adds up. No doubt Team Romney has considered every scenario.
But ask Al Gore where he might have spent a bit more time 12 years ago. Had he managed to hold his home state of Tennessee, the whole Florida question would have been academic. Candidates who lose when they ought to have the home-field advantage are a rare species, but even more unusual are those among them who still manage to eke out a victory in the face of defeat at home. Is Romney so exceptional a candidate and person that he would become only the second man ever to lose both home and birth states and still win?
This writer, for one, would not place money on it.