Skip to main content

Election 2012 has been trending Democrat for months. It's not that long ago that the GOP and many others thought that Republicans could capture the Senate, given the number of vulnerable Democratic seats up for grabs and the power of incumbency for the seats they have to defend. President Obama's reelection seemed vulnerable with unemployment North of 8% and no one in their right mind argued that Nancy Pelosi was a favorite to reclaim the Speaker's gavel. Today, though, it seems at least 47% more likely that we will soon again hear the wondrous words "Madame Speaker" ring out in the People's House, that Democrats will control and reform filibuster in the Senate and that President Obama will serve two terms.

The next Congress, the 113th, is unlikely to fare worse than the only previous Congress ending in 13. The 13th Congress sat during the War of 1812, suffered the British sacking of Washington D.C. and found itself scattered to the four winds. I daresay, that John Boehner, if he is given one last grasp of the gavel, wouldn't do a whole lot worse than that. But I don't think he's going to get it.

For more thoughts about my deep, abiding and growing sense that the next Congress will be ours, come out into the tall grass.

It starts in my home district, the Illinois Tenth. I blogged passionately about the young progressive who sought the nomination here, and have hardly written a word about the race since he lost to a triangulating, New Democratic Coalition businessman, in a 4 way race (the good guy ran 2nd).

I live in the most Obama 2008 + Congressional District in America still represented by a Republican, first term incumbent, Robert Dold. Alas, the Democrat, Brad Schneider, offers only a modest philosophical improvement over Dold when it comes to regulatory, labor and tax matters, But, to the good, Democrat Schneider is the complete opposite of GOP, Dold, in Schneider's robust support on marriage equality, choice, women's health, and other cherished progressive issues. So, Schneider gets my vote and, more importantly, Speaker Pelosi will get his in a Democratic majority caucus. If our Party is to control the 113th Congress, we must win seats like these.

In past elections outside groups and the GOP have run tough local ads against our local Congressional candidate and waged vigorous local campaigns. This year, though, the Congressional campaign is barely a whisper. Judging only by the direct mail campaign, and comparing it to what I experienced during the primary, I'd have to say there is nothing much going on, at all. The Chamber of Commerce was up with a lame generic ad, but I've seen no effort by Dold to define Schneider or stake a position in this race except against tax increases. The direct TV war is no better. Here is how a local paper described it:

Nowhere in any of the five commercials aired so far—three by Dold and two from Schneider—is the word Democrat or Republican mentioned. Neither are the words progressive or tea party used in the spots in this race drawing national attention.
It's like the Republican campaign doesn't know what to talk about any more. None of the old stuff works any more and they don't have any new stuff. I have every sense that the GOP incumbent will be whisked out and Obama's coattails will whisk in businessman, wobbly Democrat, Brad Schneider, to what I'm beginning to sense will be the Democratic 113th Congress.

In fairness to reality, the little objective data available on this subject suggests that I am wrong, about the 113th Congress, if not about my local district. I located only one poll for the Illinois Tenth, showing the candidates tied at 46%. Huffington Posts poll tracker has not yet seen a tip to probable House control by Democrats. Huffington Post projects Democrats to fall more or less half way short of the seats necessary to capture the House. Intrade gives us a 26.5% chance of pulling it off, as of today.

But the pundits picking the races only have to be wrong in a small number of cases for there to be a very different outcome. And just like the only poll in my local Congressional race, taken in August, a lot of the relatively scarce Congressional race polling data could be badly outdated if it doesn't account for the general, recent cascade of GOP fortunes under the tender mercies of Romney and Ryan.

What betides the 113th Congress is, at least, a weakened GOP majority and, at best, Speaker Pelosi.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    arealniceguy, Turbonerd, Sylv

    The stain of Bain is wrecking Romney's name. h/t to Lerner & Lowe

    by LeftOfYou on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 07:10:08 PM PDT

  •  I just read an article about the Senate .... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    arealniceguy

    leaning towards the republicans which sucked over on Politico. I was like what the hell..... I thought we had a good shot of keeping it  that is why my focus has been on the House races.......

    Shit starter extraordinaire/takin' it to the extremely gifted idiot savants that are ruled by the republican establishment. Why can't I go to that alternate reality?

    by tdslf1 on Sun Sep 30, 2012 at 08:58:20 PM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site