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Yes, there is only one poll that matters. Yes, the election is on November 6, 2012 (unless you early vote !). Yes, if we don't give it our all, we might lose. And yes, down ballot races matter - State legislature races and governor races, US House of Representative races, and US Senate races are all extremely important. Wednesday is the first debate.
It is possible, albeit highly unlikely, that the debate could alter the trajectory of the race. Nevertheless, with all of the above caveats duly noted (I am looking at you debbie downer concern trolls), we are leading in the composite numbers for every single legitimate swing state.

Follow me below the squiggle, if you will,

Indiana is not a swing state; 2008 was an aberration due to the financial crisis. Missouri is no longer a swing state; it is a southern state whose vote diverged by 7 percent from the national electorate and is moving away from our party. Arizona and Georgia and Texas are not yet swing states; by 2020, all three will be competitive. Montana and North Dakota are just outside of the reach of almost any Democratic Presidential Candidate.

The polls

North Carolina

NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/23 - 9/25    1,035 LV     46     48     5     Obama +2   
Civitas (R) / National Research (R)    9/18 - 9/19    600 RV     45     49     7     Obama +4   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     46     48     6     Obama +2   
High Point University/Fox 8    9/8 - 9/18    448 RV     43     46     9     Obama +3

Composite: President Obama 47.2 Willard 46.6

Virginia

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
ARG    9/24 - 9/27    600 LV     49     47     3     Obama +2   
Suffolk/NBC12    9/24 - 9/26    600 LV     46     44     8     Obama +2   
PPP (D)/NRDC    9/17 - 9/19    2,770 LV     49     43     8     Obama +6   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     46     43     11     Obama +3   
FOX    9/16 - 9/18    1,006 LV     49     42     6     Obama +7   
We Ask America    9/17 - 9/17    1,238 LV     49     46     5     Obama +3   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/11 - 9/17    1,474 LV     50     46     3     Obama +4   
PPP (D)    9/13 - 9/16    1,021 LV     51     46     3     Obama +5   
Washington Post    9/12 - 9/16    847 LV     52     44    -     Obama +8   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    1,047 LV     48     44     6     Obama +4   

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 45

Colorado

    MARGIN   
PPP (D)    9/20 - 9/23    940 LV     51     45     4     Obama +6   
Gravis Marketing    9/21 - 9/22    765 LV     50     46     4     Obama +4   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     48     45     7     Obama +3   
NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/16 - 9/18    971 LV     50     45     4     Obama +5   

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 45

Iowa

MARGIN   
PPP (D)    9/24 - 9/26    754 LV     51     44     5     Obama +7   
Des Moines Register/Selzer    9/23 - 9/26    650 LV     49     45     2     Obama +4   
Voter/Consumer Research (R-The Iowa Republican)    9/23 - 9/25    500 RV     46     47     7     Romney +1   
ARG    9/20 - 9/23    600 LV     51     44     4     Obama +7   
Rasmussen    9/19 - 9/19    500 LV     44     47     5     Romney +3   
NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/16 - 9/18    898 LV     50     42     7     Obama +8   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    700 LV     48     43     5     Obama +5   
PPP (D)    8/23 - 8/26    1,244 LV     47     45     8     Obama +2   
Rasmussen    8/8 - 8/8    500 LV     44     46     6     Romney +2   
PPP (D)    7/12 - 7/15    1,131 LV     48     43     9     Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 48.4 Willard 44.1

Wisconsin

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
We Ask America    9/20 - 9/23    1,238 LV     53     41     5     Obama +12   
PPP (D)    9/18 - 9/19    842 LV     52     45     3     Obama +7   
NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/16 - 9/18    968 LV     50     45     4     Obama +5   
Rasmussen    9/17 - 9/17    500 LV     49     46     2     Obama +3   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/11 - 9/17    1,485 LV     51     45     3     Obama +6   
Marquette Law School    9/13 - 9/16    601 LV     54     40     5     Obama +14

Composite: President Obama 50.6 Willard 43.2

New Hampshire

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
ARG    9/25 - 9/27    600 LV     50     45     4     Obama +5   
NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/23 - 9/25    1,012 LV     51     44     4     Obama +7   
GQR (D-New Hampshire Democratic Party)    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     52     45    -     Obama +7   
Rasmussen    9/18 - 9/18    500 LV     45     48     3     Romney +3   
ARG    9/15 - 9/17    463 LV     48     47    -     Obama +1   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    340 LV     48     42     5     Obama +6   
UNH/WMUR    9/4 - 9/10    592 LV     45     40     12     Obama +5   
PPP (D)    8/9 - 8/12    1,055 LV     51     45     5     Obama +6

Composite: President Obama 49.2 Willard 44.4

Florida

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union    9/24 - 9/24    540 LV     49     46     4     Obama +3   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/18 - 9/24    1,196 LV     53     44     3     Obama +9   
PPP (D)    9/20 - 9/23    861 LV     50     46     4     Obama +4   
Washington Post    9/19 - 9/23    769 LV     51     47     1     Obama +4   
ARG    9/20 - 9/22    600 LV     50     45     4     Obama +5   
Mason-Dixon    9/17 - 9/19    800 LV     48     47     4     Obama +1   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     47     48     5     Romney +1   
We Ask America    9/18 - 9/18    1,230 LV     49     46     4     Obama +3   
FOX    9/16 - 9/18    829 LV     49     44     5     Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 48.6 Willard 45.4

Nevada
POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
NBC/WSJ/Marist    9/23 - 9/25    984 LV     49     47     3     Obama +2   
ARG    9/20 - 9/23    600 LV     51     44     4     Obama +7   
POS (R)    9/19 - 9/20    500 LV     46     46     2    -   
PPP (D-League of Conservation Voters)    9/18 - 9/20    501 LV     52     43     5     Obama +9   
Rasmussen    9/18 - 9/18    500 LV     47     45     3     Obama +2   
CNN    9/14 - 9/18    741 LV     49     46     4     Obama +3   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    541 LV     51     44     3     Obama +7   
PPP (D)    8/23 - 8/26    831 LV     50     47     4     Obama +3   
SurveyUSA    8/16 - 8/21    869 LV     47     45     4     Obama +2   
Rasmussen    7/24 - 7/24    500 LV     50     45     4     Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 49.2 Willard 45.2

Ohio

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/18 - 9/24    1,162 LV     53     43     3     Obama +10   
Washington Post    9/19 - 9/23    759 LV     52     44     2     Obama +8   
Gravis Marketing    9/21 - 9/22    594 LV     45     44     10     Obama +1   
PPP (D)/NRDC    9/17 - 9/19    2,890 LV     50     44     6     Obama +6   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     48     44     8     Obama +4   
FOX    9/16 - 9/18    1,009 LV     49     42     7     Obama +7   
Ohio Newspaper Organization/University of Cincinnati    9/13 - 9/18    861 LV     51     46     2     Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 49.1 Willard 43.0

Michigan

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
Gravis Marketing    9/21 - 9/22    804 LV     50     46     4     Obama +4   
Rasmussen    9/20 - 9/20    500 LV     54     42     3     Obama +12   
PPP (D-NRDC)    9/17 - 9/19    2,386 LV     51     42     7     Obama +9   
CNN    9/14 - 9/18    754 LV     52     44     3     Obama +8   
Glengariff Group    9/15 - 9/17    600 LV     52     38     9     Obama +14   
Marketing Resource Group (R)    9/10 - 9/14    600 LV     48     42     8     Obama +6   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    1,114 LV     51     42     4     Obama +9

Composite: President Obama 50.6 Willard 41.7

Pennsylvania

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    NONE    UNDECIDED   
Muhlenberg    9/22 - 9/26    427 LV     49     42    -     5   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/18 - 9/24    1,180 LV     54     42    -     2   
Franklin and Marshall College    9/18 - 9/23    392 LV     52     43    -     3   
Susquehanna (R)/Tribune-Review    9/18 - 9/20    800 LV     47     45    -     6   
Mercyhurst University    9/12 - 9/20    522 LV     48     40    -     6   
Rasmussen    9/19 - 9/19    500 LV     51     39   

Composite: President Obama 50.5 Willard 41.4

New Mexico

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
POS (R-Wilson)    9/25 - 9/27    500 LV     47     40    -     Obama +7   
PPP (D)/NRDC    9/17 - 9/20    3,111 LV     52     43     6     Obama +9   
YouGov    9/7 - 9/14    293 LV     51     43     1     Obama +8   
PPP (D-League of Conservation Voters)    9/7 - 9/9    1,122 LV     53     42     5     Obama +11   
Albuquerque Journal    9/3 - 9/6    667 LV     45     40     8     Obama +5   
Rasmussen    8/21 - 8/21    500 LV     52     38     1     Obama +14

Composite: President Obama 50.9 Willard 41.7

Massachusetts

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
Boston Globe/UNH NEW!    9/21 - 9/27    502 LV     57     30     11     Obama +27   
Rasmussen    9/24 - 9/24    500 LV     55     40     2     Obama +15   
UMass Lowell/Herald    9/13 - 9/17    497 LV     60     36     5     Obama +24   
PPP (D)    9/13 - 9/16    876 LV     57     39     4     Obama +18   
Suffolk    9/13 - 9/16    600 LV     64     31     4     Obama +33   

Composite: President Obama 57.4 Willard 36.2

8:47 PM PT: Willard is above 45.4 in only one of the above swing states: North Carolina.

President Obama is at 48.4 or above in every single swing state except North Carolina.

9:18 PM PT: Ohio is a swing state like Massachusetts is (0+ / 0-)

a swing state. Huff Post lists the confidence that President Obama is ahead there as : 100 percent. The polls reflect this. And there are underlying factors that undergird this understanding: 1 in 8 jobs in Ohio is related to the auto industry which Ohioans know President Obama saved, 500,000 new manufacturing jobs have been created over President Obama's first term; manufacturing is very important to Ohio. Ohio's unemployment rate is substantially lower than the rest of the country. John Kasich is extremely unpopular there. His anti union bill SB 5 was defeated by 20 points and Willard tied himself to it.

Willard has zero ability to connect with working class people who dominate Ohio elections.

Willard's chances of winning Ohio are only marginally better than mine. Ohio is not a swing state this election. not between these candidates.

Note that President Obama is sitting on 50% in a number of Ohio polls. Willard can't get remotely close to 50% there. Convincing Obama voters to change their mind is willard's only move and it will not be successful.

President Obama is extremely confident about his position electorally now. That is why he is pushing his : commit to vote for Barack Obama  

9:37 PM PT: We note that PPP confirmed once again that President Obama is at or near 50% while Willard remains mired at 45% . PPP does not include cell phones and that hurts us in the polling. They also do not use live interviewers. This also hurts us in the polling. The better pollsters with live interviewers and who include cell phones show larger leads for President Obama, as Nate Silver pointed out. Willard has led in precisely 2 polls in Ohio since June. And they were by Gravis Marketing (R and a poor pollster) and Purple Strategies (Alex Castellanos -also R and a poor pollster). Even the House of Ras has not pretended that Willard has ever had a lead there. Not even Ras. Willard's own advisers admitted to journalists that they were down about 9 there; this is the same number that President Obama's team has in their internal polling.


10:39 PM PT: *************************

Sometime in the not too distant future, I plan to explore the ramifications of swing states and the electoral college. For, this could remover the tether that connects individual states (and their polls) with national polls. In other words, since President Obama and willard have many states locked down - where the other cannot get to 50, neither of them focus on those states. Neither of them advertise or campaign or invest resources in those states. The numbers in those states could become lopsided or closer. This would effect the national polls. Yet, it would not effect the electoral college.

Therefore, the relationship that individual states have to the national polls has become very tenuous. I am, therefore, leaning towards the view that the national polls are not as informative of the polls in individual swing states as they used to be. Moreover, I predict that this will become increasingly true.

I also have this belief that this jeopardizes our democracy. For, essentially we have the two candidates only competing for the available votes in a few swing states. Thankfully, demographics and the exceptional nature of President Obama widened the map, at least for us. However, soon, demographics will put some of the newly minted Democratic states into safe Democratic status. And we will continue competing for the votes of a few voters in swing states. It is like the primary process which is fairly flawed, only worse.

It may be time to have a serious discussion about the electoral college. I am not saying that I am against the electoral college. I am saying that it merits a real discussion since the above disadvantage is quite serious.

10:51 PM PT: I just did the commit to vote thing. It was cool also just to verify my registration.

https://www.barackobama.com/...

Please early vote if you can !
Please donate what you can !
Please remember that downballot races are EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!

Thank you very much !

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