Week 7 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: As expected, Hienrich (D) in New Mexico has moved back over the 80% mark to move this race off the board. Mack(R) of Florida has risen above the 20% mark, removing the threat of falling off the board. In Pennsylvania Tom Smith (R) has gained enough support to break the 20% barrier, inaugurating coverage of that race.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 73.2 - 26.8. After making up ground last week, Carmona falls back. Republican hold
Connecticut: Murphy(D) leads McMahon (R) 74.3 - 25.7. Very little change this week. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 76.6 - 23.4. Intrading the Senate gets results. Faced with the ultimate humiliation of being taken off the board, Mack of FL rallied his troops and triumphed over the 20% mark. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 52.5 - 47.5. No change in the last week. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Warren(D) leads Brown(R) 62.4 - 37.6. Warren went ahead last week and lengthened that lead this week by few points. Democratic Pickup
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 64.5 - 35.6. I had thought that Akin passing the final date for withdrawal this race may move from the rut it has been in. I was wrong. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehberg(R) leads Tester(D) 60.0 - 40.0. Rehberg picks up a few more points. And more importantly for the first time I spell his name correctly this week.Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 65.9 - 35.7. Last week Berkley picked up 9 points. This week Heller got them back. Republican Hold
New Mexico: Heinrich(D) leads Wilson(R) 82.8 - 17.2. Last week this thinly traded race briefly showed Heinrich below the 80% probability mark. He's now back above. If Wilson can't correct this in the next week it goes back off the board. Democratic Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 62.5 - 37.5. No change from last week Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 75.0 - 25.0. Brown moves closer to the 80% necessary to take it off the board. He was actually above that mark for part of last week, but is now slightly below. Democratic Hold
Pennsylvania: Casey(D) leads Smith(R) 78.3 - 21.7. Smith picked up enough support to bring the race on the board. However it's a very thinly traded race, and it just a few purchases of Casey stock will take it back off. Democratic hold
Virginia: Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) 71.4 - 28.6. Kaine is relentless, gaining a few points every week. Democratic hold
Wisconsin: Baldwin(D) leads Thompson(R) 64.6 - 35.4. I thought that Thompson could get a dead cat bounce from his huge fall last week. I was wrong as Baldwin lengthens her lead. Democratic Hold
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Michigan (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
Results: So the current Intrade tally is 3 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota with a Democratic pickup (Massachusetts) an Independent pickup (Maine)).
Final Score:
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 48 Republicans.