Skip to main content

Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren in their first debate.
The second debate of the Massachusetts Senate race is tonight, and with one more poll giving Democrat Elizabeth Warren the edge, it's likely we'll see replay of the aggressive, bullying, nasty Scott Brown. This weekend, the Boston Globe released another poll, the sixth out of eight public polls released in September giving Warren the lead.
Warren, a Democrat, leads Brown, a Republican, 43 percent to 38 percent, a shift from the Globe’s last poll in May, when Brown held a 2-point lead. But the race remains within either candidate’s grasp, with 18 percent of voters still undecided, said Andrew E. Smith, the Globe’s pollster and the director of the University of New Hampshire ­Survey Center. [...]

Warren’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning a spread of as much as 8 percentage points between the candidates would still statistically count as a dead heat. Still, the survey is sobering for Brown six weeks before the election.

Sobering because Brown is losing the Democratic voters he held previously, and because at the top of the ticket, Mitt Romney is a walking disaster in the state. Obama leads by 27 points. As of now, just nine percent of poll respondents who are voting for Obama say they'll vote for Brown, with 20 percent say they are undecided. A repeat of Brown's first debate performance, in which Brown was in nasty personal attack mode from the outset, could make up the minds of those undecided voters who are open to supporting Brown because he's a likable guy.

Goal Thermometer

The ugly incident with Brown's staff could also be hurting Brown. One undecided voter the Globe followed up with, Charlie Brewer, said he had made up his mind in the week since he was surveyed: “If it were today, I think the image of those guys whooping with the tomahawk chop, I’d vote for Ms. Warren.” It's also not helping Brown that, even after that disgusting display by his staff, that he is still running ads attacking Warren on her heritage. Because he's got nothing else to run on. His attacks are defining Warren for some voters, eroding her credibility.

So will Brown overcome his desperation, completely change the tenor and the direction of his campaign tonight? His actions since the last debate suggest not. That leaves Warren an opening to appeal to those undecided voters by focusing back on Brown's voting record, trying to force him to defend his votes.

The debate begins tonight at 7:00 ET, and will be shown locally on WHDH-TV (Channel 7), NECN, and CSPAN.

Please donate $3 to Elizabeth Warren on ActBlue.
 

8:39 AM PT: WBUR is out with a brand new poll this morning, again showing Warren with a lead, albeit slight. This makes seven of nine polls in the past month giving Warren the edge: "46 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided in the hotly contested race." That's a slide for Warren from WBUR's poll of two weeks ago, which had her up by five points.

Also of note in this story, don't have high expectations for the debate moderator setting a tone or focusing on substance. The moderator is "Dancing" Dave Gregory.

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:56 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site