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To sum up my premise in one word.
After a strong start, arrogance will doom the Romney debates.

1st debate:
Romney will come on the attack. He will pop in his memorized zingers and catch a couple of sound bites on the news that gets repeated and repeated. The conservative pundrity will rinse and repeat until the MSM also starts repeating. Obama will let a couple of these go unanswered in favor of bland policy wonk responses. Obama wil hit Romney on a couple of his major faults including the 47%, his lack details, and lack of math. Romney will use a couple of words over and over including "failure", "dependency", and "lie".

It will be close but the "universal punditry" will conclude
"advantage Romney". However there is something more in play....

2nd debate: Obama's answers in the first debate are there to set the table for the 2nd and third debates. Assuming there will be no major faux paus or misspoken policy, Obama can use this debate to focus on disseminating Romney's lack of policy coherence. The debates will be won here.  

Romney, bouyed by his performance in the first debate, will be urged to go for the jugular. He will double down on the "failure" talk, and "lie" verbage. Having used his "A" zingers in the first debate, his arrogence will get him to say something that Obama will simply be able to hit out of the park. This will be the home run of the debate.

Winner: Obama

3rd Debate:
The third debate will bog down in policy discussion. Romney wil continue to try zingers and use the  same strategy in debates one and two. By now, Obama will have come across as incredibly articulate, knowledgeable, and nuanced.  He will look like the reasonable one. By this time, Romney will personify the arrogance of the right wing (tea party et al...).  Romney, by contrast  will start getting hung up by debate procedures and start challenging the format, and the moderator for asking tough questions. He will look petty, unreasonable, and mean. Obama will highlight the etch-a-scketch  and jack in the box analogies on Romney's hundreds of policy flip flops.

Arrogance or Reason.
 That will be the central question coming from the debates.

Do we want another cowboy going around invading Middle East countries, or do we want articulate, nuanced, smart foriegn policy? Do we want a leader who represents far  fewer than half of the country, or someone who cares about everyone. It will be a clear choice.

Clear winner of all three debates:

This was my attempt on debate prediction. Your turn.......

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Comment Preferences

  •  That's a rather wordy explanation (7+ / 0-)

    when "his opponent is a freakin' idiot" would have done just as nicely . . . ..

  •  it's funny (16+ / 0-)

    I heard an NPR interview with some rightwingers this morning, and the woman said that she was sure Obama would lose the debates badly because "Obama can't speak without a teleprompter and he's not smart enough to counter anything Mitt says".

    Oh, are they in for a rude awakening.

    We have bought popcorn.

    •  PBO debated the Republican caucus on healthcare (12+ / 0-)

      without a teleprompter, took all questions, and demolished everyone with his thorough knowledge of facts, statistics and his knowledge of issues. Every senator or congressman that threw a question to the President was cut to pieces. It was beautiful to behold.

      And best of all, President Obama invited CSPAN along to cover the event and convinced the Republicans it would be wise for the entire country to see the debate. Boy, did they regret that.

      Two points: Obviously, there was no teleprompter for this debate, they aren't used in debates.

      Secondly, it was the last time Mitch McConnell thought it was a smart idea to let the President attend such a debate and debate the attendees.

      •  he debates these douchebags in meetings (7+ / 0-)

        all the time.

        you know who doesn't? mitt romney. seriously, the POTUS's day is filled with briefings, meetings, engagements, and debates on issues foreign and domestic, and his reputation is to be the guy more prepared to engage in the meeting than anyone else in the room. a GOPer member of congress admitted just a few weeks ago that Obama is a master of detail.

        Obama's only problem in these debates and in this election is the portion of the population that believes in a president that doesn't exist. this president is not smart, is lazy, can't speak without a teleprompter and can only read what other people prepare for him.

        when he shows himself to be the exact opposite of that, these people will still only see what they want to see.

    •  They really have started to believe all of their (4+ / 0-)


      I mean, since when did using a teleprompter become such a laugh line? Since they've been in existence they've been used by politicians.

      Um, hello, did they not watch their own convention? ONE guy went without a teleprompter and the rest is history.

      "...and if proud Americans can be who they are and boldly stand at the altar with who they love...then surely, surely we can give everyone in this country a fair chance at that great American Dream." ~ Michelle Obama

      by BoiseBlue on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:29:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think they'll claim someone else was (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      feeding him the answers through an earpiece. Technology has improved enough to make Bush's answer box much smaller.

  •  I don't see success due to his robotic nature (4+ / 0-)

    Mittbot programming means  1 zinger program runs.  2 smirk emerges.  3 inappropriate and highly annoying gallows laugh.  4 repeat procedure as the audience groans and his negatives increase.  Thursday morning I will eat Mitt's magic underwear if I am wrong.

    Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

    by J Edward on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:27:36 AM PDT

  •  Obama is tough as nails, and Romney is a (7+ / 0-)

    bully.  Obama is also much smarter.

    And he has the profound advantage of actually trying to tell the truth, while Romney is all spin and lies.

    I expect Obama will win all the debates handily, and his numbers will continue to rise.

  •  The reason why Obama will win the debates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Intheknow, wilderness voice

    is that debates are about substantive issues and Romney has no credible response on the big issues of the day:  health care, taxes, support for the auto bailout, immigration, student loans etc.

    Obama will be able to do what he has done all through this campaign:  explain his policies and define Romney's as a return to the failed policies of the past.  That's basically the same formula from the 2008 debates because McCain and Romney support the same policies, except that Romney doubles down harder on Bush economics.

    Like 2008, the debates will simply reinforce the electorate's prevailing view of the election, and it might make a few more undecideds come off the fence, and we know that those voters have been moving a bit more to the President than to Romney since the Convention.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:36:48 AM PDT

  •  President Obama will win all three debates because (6+ / 0-)

    he is the president, he has stood up to the pressure of being president for four years, has made big, pressure packed decisions despite the political risk, and this will be his fourth, fifth, and sixth presidential debates.

    In a word, President Obama is experienced, and this will show.  It shows in his listening ability.  It shows in his ability to think on his feet, and to issue a measured, thought through response.  It shows in his humanity, his sense of humor, and his ability to withstand whatever attack Mr. Romney wants to dish out, zinger or not.

    He will also win because he has a record, and a program.  Romney has a scant political resume, few accomplishments, and he is unwilling to own up to his biggest one, Romney care.  He has disdain for not just the 47 per cent, but the entire 99 per cent, and it is inescapable to anyone who cares to look.  This disdain, this wish to hide his program, this wish to obsfucate how and why he hides his enormous wealth from the press and the voters he so disdains, his inability to outline any kind of program in any kind of detail that can be scored, his reliance on washed up neocon national security advisors, all of whom were discredited during the Bush administration, his demonstrated desire for war with Iran, all will be disqualifiers over the course of the debates.  Each and every one of these things will disqualify Mitt Romney to be President of the United States of America.

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:38:54 AM PDT

  •  Obama has a zinger of his own. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    It's called "the truth".

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:58:05 AM PDT

  •  I tend to think that the... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Intheknow, The Nose, Smoh in the room will be perceived as the winner.

    Listening, replying with articulation and measured civility are traits and habits the President has, IMO.  

  •  What Obama Should Say In The Debate (0+ / 0-)

    All Obama needs to say to Romney is, in order to pay for part of your tax cuts you have proposed, would you be willing to close the offshore tax avoidance havens we know you used even with only the two years of partial tax returns you have allowed us to see, which have allowed you to pay less taxes on millions of dollars than 99% of the country or would you rather the rest of the country bear the burden of paying more taxes so you and your wealthy friends can get an even greater tax cut!!!!

    End of ballgame, thats all Obama has to say.

  •  All Obama needs to Say in The Debate (0+ / 0-)

    All Obama needs to say to Romney is, in order to pay for part of your tax cuts would you be willing to close the offshore tax avoidance havens we know you used even with only the 1 1/2 years of tax returns you have allowed us to see, which have allowed you to pay less taxes on millions of dollars than 99% of the country or would you rather the rest of the country bear the burden of paying more taxes so you and your wealthy friends can get an even greater tax cut!!!!

    End of ballgame, thats all Obama has to say.

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