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In-person early voting starts today in Ohio. President Obama currently holds a 5.5 point lead in Ohio in the RCP average. The most recent poll in Ohio, from left leaning Public Policy Polling, puts Obama ahead 49 - 45. Another poll released at the same time, from The Columbus Dispatch, puts Obama ahead by a wider margin 51 - 42.

Hopefully, new polls from Ohio will also provide a snapshot of how early voting is going. Ohio does not have traditional party registration, so it is difficult to get reliable demographics of early voters.

Updated numbers after the jump.


Estimates are made using the early voting statistics gathered by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University and combining it with most recent polling in the state.

Total number of early ballots received: 68454, an increase of ~20,000 since yesterday.

IOWA reports 43,856 ballots cast as of Tuesday morning.
MAINE reports 48 returned ballots as of Monday morning.
NORTH CAROLINA reports 16,357 returned ballots as of Tuesday morning (with 7 non-reporting counties).
OHIO 10 counties report 268 returned ballots as of Sunday morning.
SOUTH CAROLINA reports 1,753 returned ballots as of Thursday afternoon.
SOUTH DAKOTA reports 6,172 returned ballots as of Tuesday morning.
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North Carolina
Still using the ARG poll. Absentee ballots from NC are still coming primarily from older Republican voters (51.5% Republican, 62% age 60+). There are still 7 counties in NC not reporting.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

GOP DEM IND/OTH
51.5% 29.6% 18.8%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 5729 35.0%
Romney 9940 60.8%



Iowa
As of this morning, Iowans have returned 43,856 ballots. This is almost double what it was yesterday, at 24304, which was almost double what it was on Friday. So far, these ballots have been heavily Democratic.  Still using the WeAskAmerica poll.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

GOP DEM IND/OTH
20.1% 62.8% 17.1%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 29199 66.6%
Romney 11891 27.1%



Comparing total votes for NC and IA, the popular vote has Obama up 58-36. This isn't really indicative of anything, but it is still fun to look at.

For more information on methodology, please see my original diary here. The raw math is here.





Humor break:

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