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NBC will talk about a 3 point margin among likely voters, 49-46 (although they point out among registered voters it is 51-44, the margin having increased by 1 since the last iteration).

But that is asking only about Obama and Romney.

With Gary Johnson & Jill Stein on the ballot, tally becomes: Obama 48, Romney 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2.

That's a 5 point national margin.  In 2008 the national margin was 7 point, and Obama won 365 electoral votes.  At a 5 point margin, Obama is a cinch for over 300 electoral votes

Then there are the problems in the states.  Note the new SUSA poll that has Obama up 8 among likely voters (Kaine up 10 over Allen in the Senate race), as compared to the 52.7-46.4 margin (6/7) in 2008.  Even discounting the margin a bit, it does support other data that shows Virginia moving out of range for Romney.  Consider just this:  Lose OH & VA and there is no path to 270 for Romney.  

The internals of the NBC poll, where people are on taxes, economy, who better understands them -  there are real issues for Romney.

But simply remember this:

With Gary Johnson & Jill Stein on the ballot, tally becomes: Obama 48, Romney 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2.

It's a 5 point margin folks, not a 3 point margin.

UPDATE - there is some detail in the thread.  For those interested in the crosstabs, which are fascinating, here's the link for the details of the poll

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