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If I were a trite television talking head, I would begin the Tuesday edition of the Wrap with the statement that, if today's smattering of polls prove anything, it is that Mitt Romney "needs a game changer" in tomorrow night's opening debate.

While Republicans will cling to NBC/WSJ's "tightening" poll (and I will explain after the jump why that "tightening" meme is paper-thin), the balance of the polling looks pretty middling, at best, for the GOP contender. Worse still for Romney, the national polls look positively boffo compared to the state polls, which today are pretty much a universal disappointment for the Republicans (Texas would seem to be the only poll that they could stick on the refrigerator).

The GOP can point with some happiness downballot, but even there we can see a lot of potential disappointments for the red team coming in five weeks.

More on all of that after the jump. For now, on to the numbers:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); RV not available at press time

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St Journal): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV) Obama 48, Romney 43, Others 5 (LV w/Full Candidate Slate); Obama 48, Romney 41, Others 6 (RV w/Full Candidate Slate)

NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (United Technologies/National Journal): Obama 47, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)

FLORIDA (Suffolk University, with leaners): Obama 48, Romney 45, Others 3

LOUISIANA (Southern Media and Opinion Research): Romney 45, Obama 39

MISSOURI (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 45, Others 2

NEVADA (We Ask America--R): Obama 53, Romney 42, Others 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP for the PCCC): Obama 51, Romney 44

NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 40

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 47

RHODE ISLAND (Fleming and Associates): Obama 57, Romney 33

TEXAS (Texas Lyceum Poll): Romney 58, Obama 39

VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Obama 47, Romney 39, Others 5

FL-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 40, Connie Mack IV (R) 34, Others 5

ME-SEN (GS Strategy for the NRSC--R): Angus King (I) 37, Charlie Summers (R) 34, Cynthia Dill (D) 17

MO-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 45

NV-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41

RI-SEN (Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 56, Barry Hinckley (R) 30

TX-SEN (Texas Lyceum Poll): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 24

VA-SEN (Roanoke College): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 37

NH-GOV (Univ.of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 38, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 36

NC-GOV (SurveyUSA): Pat McCrory (R) 51, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 3

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42

RI-02 (Fleming and Associates): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 53, Michael Riley (R) 29, Abel Collins (I) 9

UT-04 (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love (R) 49, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 43

WI-08 (Normington Petts for the Wall campaign): Rep. Reid Ribble (R) 47, Jamie Wall (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...

The Wall Street Journal, desperately trying to preach to their right-of-center choir, trumpeted the tightening race between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

Is the race tightening? Only by the most charitable of definitions.

Among likely voters, what was an Obama lead of 50-45 is now a lead of 49-46. So, by that standard, sure...there has been some movement. But, among the larger pool of registered voters, the movement was in the other direction. What was a 50-44 lead for Barack Obama is now a 51-44 lead. That seven-point edge among registered voters is actually the largest lead the president has enjoyed over his Republican rival in an NBC/WSJ poll in 19 months (a February 2011 poll gave him a double-digit edge).

What's more, when the other candidates are thrown into the mix, the margin among likely voters is...five points. Which would indicate no movement at all, actually.

As for the other national pollsters, the movement is far from uniform. PPP moved a single point in Romney's direction (from Obama +5 to Obama +4), while Quinnipiac moved a single point in Obama's direction (from Obama +3 to Obama +4). National Journal's movement cannot really be tracked accurately, because their previous poll (in April) was of all adults, where this survey has a (ridiculously large) likely voter screen.

As for the trio of daily trackers, the day-to-day movement was equally muted. Ipsos/Reuters didn't move at all (holding steady at Obama +5), Rasmussen went two points in Romney's favor (from Obama +3 to Obama +1), and Gallup went two points in Obama's favor (from Obama +4 to Obama +6).

Again, as we noted yesterday, if there is a "tightening" of the race nationally, it is incremental, at best.

At the statewide level, though, if you wanted to score the ten polls released today based on whether they'd be viewed as "good" for either candidate, at best you would score the day 8-2 Obama. And that is giving Romney credit for Rhode Island, where he still trails by 24 points. Texas looks good for Mitt, as well, but beyond that, the numbers are sitting at various levels of awful for the GOP. Suffolk, whose polling this cycle has been typically upbeat for the GOP (witness last week's Virginia poll), had Obama up three points, with a fairly limited number of undecideds with which to close the gap. We Ask America, a GOP-affiliated pollster, piled on, putting Obama within striking range in Missouri (a place where no one seems interested in placing on the target list) and way ahead in Nevada (that one qualifies as today's "probably too good to be true" poll for Democrats). Add to that Roanoke's Virginia poll and SUSA's poll in North Carolina, and the projected electoral vote total for Barack Obama still looks to be north of 300 electoral votes.

And, in the eye-popper of the day, a Southern Opinion and Media Research poll had Obama within six Louisiana. It is safe to assume, however, that the Democrats aren't going to bite on targeting the Pelican State.

In other polling news...

  • If you ever wondered about why Todd Akin stubbornly decided to stick it out in the Show-Me State, today's We Ask America poll helps explain it. It is hard to dismiss the poll as too rosy for the GOP (Romney only leads by three points, as we noted), and yet incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill only leads Akin by a single point.  A sign of how catastrophic Akin's moment was politically lies in the fact that an incumbent with such low job approval numbers still holds a lead, at all, over a month after the utterance. But there is still a month to go, and this thing is pretty clearly back to a tossup.
  • If there is one state in the Union where Mitt Romney's coattails are evident, it is Utah. And it might knock the lone Democratic member of the Beehive State's delegation out of office in five weeks. A new Dan Jones poll gives Republican Mia Love a six-point edge. This is a shift of over 20 points since the last Jones poll of the Utah 4th. It also means that (oh, waiter! One order of crow!) Love's own internal polling last week, which showed a 30-point swing, was not totally crocked. Matheson is not dead yet, of course. He's down single digits, and he has had a tendency in the past to poll a little worse than he actually performs on Election Day.
  • Speaking of polls that look totally crocked, I am having a hard time buying the new GOP-sponsored poll in Maine, where the GS Strategy survey out today is claiming that Charlie Summers has moved within the margin of error on Independent Angus King. Though, it might explain the GOP doing a bit of clever chicanery by running ads which indirectly boost Democrat Cynthia Dill. Unlike the UT-04 race, we have a lot of recent independent polling here, and none of it shows this as a single-digit race. One thing is clear, though: with their prospects of a Senate majority in peril, the GOP is making the conscious decision to try to salvage Maine.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I was in Maine for five days last week ... (16+ / 0-)

    And for what it's worth, with very limited TV viewing, King was getting slaughtered ad-wise.  Plus he looked like a dope, as in one spot he was quoted as saying 'No one is talking to me about the economy.'

    Let's hope Dill doesn't hand the seat to the GOP in the same manner LePage won the governor's race.

    I'm no King fan, with his 'indie' schtick, but really.

    •  Let the 30% crush Ryan and ......... (5+ / 0-)

      his defective top of the ticket.

      Shit starter extraordinaire/takin' it to the extremely gifted idiot savants that are ruled by the republican establishment. Why can't I go to that alternate reality?

      by tdslf1 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:46:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The leak guarantees it will be a topic at debate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Romney finally started getting people to forget his 47% statement and we have a leak about Ryan.  Romney has never retracted what he said, which is I guess a tribute to his trying to avoid flip flopping, but we now have both of them on video saying something that is damaging.

    •  King is a disaster in Maine (13+ / 0-)

      I've decided this week I just can't vote for him - I am voting for Cynthia Dill. She is the Democrat in the race, and it's beyond foolish that Dems are just supposed to line up like sheep beyond the campaign of someone who trashes Dems as much as Republicans. King's campaign has somehow gotten the email addresses of all Maine Democratic donors and is sending out begging emails to all of us to donate and campaign for him. Yet he refuses to say he will caucus with the Democrats. So insulting and disgusting. If you email and ask the campaign point blank, they say he is too "fiscally conservative" to caucus with Democrats, and too "socially liberal" to caucus with Republicans. But it appears he IS a big enough idiot to think he can somehow get committee assignments and support for Maine by caucusing with no one. A delusional full of himself dope, that's our Angus.  If elected he will be more arrogant and a bigger grandstander than Lieberman. Just can't stomach voting for him. King is all about King. More and better Democrats, even if it takes another cycle to get there.  

      •  Please don't... (27+ / 0-)

        Seriously... I know King is a douche of major proportions, but don't get LePaged again, please...


        by LordMike on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:40:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In this case (24+ / 0-)

          I'd say that the thinking should not really be "more and better Democrats", but "fewer Republicans."  And if it takes an Independent who will seldom if ever vote with the GOP on major issues, then that's what it takes.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:46:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Believe Me I've Wrestled with It (10+ / 0-)

          But King is running a "pox on both of your houses" campaign. I've corresponded with the campaign to be absolutely sure he's sticking with the vow not to caucus with Dems, and that sealed the deal. He rails against the "partisan extremists" in both parties in the emails he has the gall to send soliciting money from "extreme partisan" folks like me -- in other words, Democrats. I know my vote doesn't count for much, but it matters to me. Cynthia Dill is a Democrat with a good record in the legislature. King is a tool, and a rusty one at that. Hopelessly puffed up ego and zero campaign skills after 12 years out of the ring. I honestly think if he gets enough heat and falls behind in polling he might suck it up and commit to caucusing with Dems. He would then win easily, and he'd be forced to follow through with a promise to caucus with the Dems instead of making everyone kiss his ring for weeks after the election. He's depending on Dems acting out of fear of being LePaged. I'd rather vote my beliefs than my fears. Plus if there's one thing I've learned from reading the front page over the past few weeks, we should never be afraid to call a dick a dick.

          •  I respect that (0+ / 0-)

            The other kind of thinking g helped get us into this mess

            Never believe your own press, never drink your own KoolAid

            by Mindful Nature on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:18:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  When did he vow not to caucus with the Dems? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, elwior

            Did he also say he would caucus with the Republicans?

            Unless he's an idiot or I am completely ignorant of how the Senate works, not caucusing would cause him to be basically powerless.

            Have you ever considered that he's done the math? He might win easily by saying he'll caucus with the Democrats, but even if he does, he'll lose most if not all of the support he had from Republicans. It's much more like he'll be a senator if he plays the "pox" card, however falsely, because he'll almost certainly get 45 percent of the vote. If he does that, he wins, because Dill will get enough of the vote to prevent Summers from winning.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:20:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That poll looks believable... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, elwior

              ...given all the negative ads on King and the faux positive ads for Dill (from what I've heard, and you can see a few of them on youtube if you're interested), I can see this really tightening, especially if King takes a brunt of the negativity.

              I'm just curious what actual Maine residents are thinking.  Anybody seeing the signs on the houses/cars?  Who feels like they are in the lead over there?  Momentum?

              Gad if Summers takes this seat that would be a freakin shame.

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:44:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Direct quotes from his campaign (4+ / 0-)

              to my email questions about who he will caucus with:

              Angus' intention is to not caucus with either party.  It will largely come down to getting committee assignments. These committee  assignments are important for Senators to be effective for their constituents.  Assignments are normally given out by Senate party leaders, but Angus isn't sure he has to caucus with either party in order to get committee assignments . . .This is all because Angus is not a good fit in either party: fiscally he is more conservative than the Democrats but also socially more liberal than the Republicans.  As Governor, he sometimes sided with the Republicans, he sometimes sided with the Democrats, but most often worked outside of the conventional structure to build a majority with people from both parties who were interested in moving forward.

              He's not being strategic about winning in Maine, he's arrogant. Angus thinks he'll somehow be a true "Kingmaker" and put together super nifty deals outside the Senate structure.  Anyone here who loved the era of "President Snowe" and "President Baucus" during the early days of Obama's term, have fun with "President Angus."  I would vote for him if he'd commit to caucusing with Democrats, even though I personally can't stand him. If he won't do that, he's too much of a pig in a poke.

          •  He never said he wouldn't caucus with Dems, (5+ / 0-)

            but stated that he wouldn't announce who he would caucus with until after he won. He has to caucus with someone (Senate rules), and it's gonna have to be the Dems because he's endorsed Obama. I don't like the "bipartisan" foreplay he's doing either, but he's the only person who's gonna beat Summers.

            I mean no personal offense when I say this, but you sound like the archetypal low-info voter that causes a split liberal vote---the same split vote that caused Reagan's >50% victories in northeastern states in 1980, D'Amato's victory over Javits and Holtzman that same year, Bush's victory in 2000, Kirk's and LePage's win in 2010, and a whole host of other preventable conservative victories as well as constant GOP chicanery to get multiple liberals on the ballot in close races.

            If you think you've "wrestled" with this, keep wrestling with it, because you clearly don't know who you're being used by.

            Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

            by Zutroy on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:34:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  low information? (6+ / 0-)

              I don't take it personally but the criticism blows me away anyway coming from this site - I'm an "idiot," "stupid," "low information," and "used"  . . . All because after a lot of careful research I've decided to vote for the only Democrat in the race. And I dared to state this intent at a site dedicated to electing Democrats.  I have tried to get on board with voting for King, but he's not a Democrat. Period. Full Stop. Not even a DINO. Since when is voting for your beliefs (and for a good candidate mainstream Democratic candidate to boot) a sign of being "used"? This race is in flux - King falls enough in the polls, and he will commit to caucusing with the Dems before November. And then everyone here wins if he wins. And I change my vote.

              •  If Dill were polling somewhere… (6+ / 0-)

                …around twice what she's getting, then I would agree with your logic. In a 33/33/33 race, it would be obvious to vote for the Democrat.

                But I have to invoke Bill Clinton here:  "What new ideas did we bring? I always give a one-word answer: arithmetic."

                And the arithmetic says that in this case a vote for Dill is a vote for Summers, just look at what voting for Kendrick Meeks and Libby Mitchell brought the Democrats: Marco Rubio and Paul LePage.

                How are you gonna feel if Summers is your next Senator?

                Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

                by DemSign on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 10:01:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I said a long time that if Dill were serious (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  elwior, Sherri in TX, DemSign

                  about trying to be a senator, she'd use this as one long extended listening tour. Get to know voters around the state and leave them with a positive impression. She will have her work cut in half next time she runs, which could be in 2014 whether or not Collins retires, or even against LePage.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 11:51:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  he just said it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              from the comment above regarding an email from his campaign...

              Angus' intention is to not caucus with either party.
              your insult was unnecessary.

              America could have chosen to be the worlds doctor, or grocer. We choose instead to be her policeman. pity

              by cacamp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:54:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Two names: Paul LePage and Marco Rubio... (5+ / 0-)

            all the rest is commentary. And King NEVER said he refused to caucus with the dems. he clearly is on the record again and again as saying he would decide after the election.  Since Dill is 20 points behind the GOP and 30 points behind King, you are basically saying you are voting for the GOP. That is fine, but be fully aware of what you are doing. We don't have instant runoff or proportional rep, we have first past the post.  Your choices are King or the GOP...good luck with your vote

            •  Instant runoff voting (5+ / 0-)

              If Summers somehow slips through yet Democrats retake the Maine Legislature, someone should seriously propose that.  If it passes, of course Gov. Shitforbrains would veto it, but if he loses to a Democrat (or liberal leaning Independent) in 2014, then IRV should go full steam ahead.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:58:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Clearly, our state needs runoff voting (0+ / 0-)

                because its fascination with independent iconoclasts is having the opposite effect that it's supposed to have. Instead of getting legislators who split the ideological difference with a novel "middle way," we're letting the teabagger minority dictate terms for the state.

                Nothing against either Angus King, or Cynthia Dill. But progressives, seriously: pick one, and run with her/him. And if you want to keep playing Dems and independents against one another on the ballot, amend the constitution so that we don't keep shooting ourselves in the proverbial foot.

                Nothing requires a greater effort of thought than arguments to justify the rule of non-thought. -- Milan Kundera

                by Dale on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 09:48:49 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I smell a ruse, not a rose... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              coaster33, EJP in Maine, kbroers

              Perhaps acadia's real goal is to help the Repub win, by pretending to vote for the Dem -- and hopefully dragging a few percentage points worth of Dems away from King -- when in fact acadia's real intent is to elect the Repub. Otherwise, there is NO good reason to pontificate about the unwillingness of King to declare with whom he would caucus after he is elected before the election.  After all, the moment he declares which side he would caucus with, that is the same moment he loses voters who might otherwise have voted for him.

              I think acadia understands this -- if s/he is as informed and non-low information a voter as asserted here today -- and so voting for the Dem IS a vote FOR the Repub.  And if s/he is comfortable with allowing the Repubs to gain control of the Senate with his/her protest vote to send another Repub to Washington to represent Maine, then the only party likely to gain ground with this ridiculous way of thinking is the Republicans.

              The only reason to withhold support for King is not to assert some moral high ground, but rather to assert the increased likelihood of electing the Republican to the Senate. Thus, in my opinion, I think this posting is a ruse to deflect votes away from the independent and towards splitting the non-Repub vote in order to elect the Repub.

              If I were a voter in Maine, I'd vote for a hedge-hog to prevent the Republicans from gaining control of the Senate. A vain protest vote would be the last thing I'd do. I don't buy the argument that s/he advances. If King is the smart politician he seems to be, he WOULD refuse to say in advance which caucus he would join, and would wait until after the election to then state he is going to caucus with the Dems. He will want a committee assignment, and won't get one if he stays outside the tent yelling, "Hey guys, I'm over here!"

              •  Oh Baloney (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                PALiberal1, CocoaLove, elwior, Sylv

                I am a committed Dem, and I've also voted for King in the past. The fact that a bunch of people uprated my concerns about King shows others see this race as in flux, and there are valid reasons to vote for the Democrat. This race is not over by a long shot. The Maine governor's race shifted very quickly in the late days of 2010 (went from a two-way to three-way race in less than two weeks), and that could be happening here too. Many people who thought they were voting strategically in 2010 for the weak Democrat (Libby) to keep LePage out (I was one of them) got burned in that race when the polls shifted very late in the game to the independent.  If Dill does ascend quickly, and King continues a decline in support,  the same folks trashing me now in two or three weeks will be urging Mainers to vote for Dill. Disappointed in the vitriol here. Amazing the number of experts on Maine politics who don't live here.

            •  I agree with LePage, not so much Rubio (0+ / 0-)

              IIRC Rubio got over 50% of the vote right?  Could be wrong, but if that's right, even if Meek dropped out, Rubio would have still beat Crist handily.

              I think Meek also had some times when he had some momentum and some of us here thought he might be able to pull off the miracle comeback win, whereas I have never seen Dill poll well enough to think, hey maybe Dill could take this?  

              While I respect acadia's thinking on this, I really do think a vote for Dill is a vote for Summers at this point.

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 10:11:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The 2010 FL Senate results (0+ / 0-)

                Marco Rubio - 48.9%
                Charlie Christ - 29.7%
                Kendrick Meek - 20.2%

                 If Meek had dropped out, it would have been close but it's too hard to tell if Christ would have gotten all his voters. Still, Christ led in most of the three-way polls till mid-August, after which Rubio led in all of them. Meek never led in a single poll. I was hoping he'd take a hint and drop out, but you know how politicos can be.

                 And until we get run-offs established in a lot more states, voters need to be strategic, seriously. Voting for Dill in Maine can lead to Summers winning the election. Sucks for sure.


        •  I agree with Mike on this one. It's like Nader (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          EJP in Maine, LordMike

          I hope you hold your nose and vote for King. As cynical as it sounds. Voting your conscience when it's going to help the Republican win is like voting for Nader in 2000. As icky as King might be, at least there's a chance he'll caucus with the Democrats.

      •  this is the same kind of shortsighted thinking (18+ / 0-)

        that got Maine a Republican governor in 2010 elected with only 40% of the vote.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:47:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Will get some heat for this but i dont really care (22+ / 0-)

        Your being stupid.

        Sorry. Thats how i see it.

        Dill has zero chance of winning. Idiot Democrats voting for her because they dont like king is a sure fire way to hand the seat and maybe the whole effing Senate to the GOP.

        So you think King a joke? Well its him or Summers and that guy is no joke at all.

        Maybe the national and local Dems were too quick to give up on this race but it is what it is.

        Finally. Surely all you need to know about this race is that GOPers are spending money pushing Dill?

        •  National Dems aren't exactly giving up (4+ / 0-)

          They just have to use their money in more covert ways, such as bashing Summers while aiding King without explicitly saying so, as I understand it.  It's a delicate dance but a doable one.

          As for the rest of your post, it's a bit blunt but I agree with the general sentiment.  

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:00:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  good point (0+ / 0-)

            I should have said given up on Dill rather than the race.

          •  They are doing this already, right? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell, EJP in Maine, Sylv

            At least I remember one of these posts saying the DSCC was buying ads going negative on Summers.

            I wish King just stayed the fuck out of this in the first place but oh well.  We are stuck with him.  Worst case, if he caucuses with the GOP, the silver lining will be that he will be their Joe Lieberman/Ben Nelson/Joe Manchin.  Maybe even worse.

            "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

            by xsonogall on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:27:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Dill is the Democrat in the Race (7+ / 0-)

          This site is dedicated to electing Democrats. And Dill's not a joke candidate -- she has a good, mainstream track record in the Maine legislature. If I'm an idiot for voting for the Democrat in the race who is the only person actually committed to caucusing with Democrats in the Senate, so be it.

          •  King supports gay rights (11+ / 0-)

            and was out front in supporting gay marriage before most were.  He is pro-choice.  He is an environmentalist.  He supports the Affordable Care Act and has supported Obama both in 2008 and now.

            I'm really not sure where you would have a problem with him other than his party label and rhetoric.  He's definitely more predisposed to caucus with us than with anyone else.  Especially since the Republicans are attacking him and we aren't.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:29:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And King also flirts with making Mitch McConnell (0+ / 0-)

              Majority leader. Even Lieberman rarely "went there". This guy can fuck off, he's a narcissistic piece of shit that cares more about himself than the values he supposedly believes in.

          •  Dill is a joke (5+ / 0-)

            If by joke we mean playing spoiler for the only guy who can beat the teabagger Rethug.

            Yes this site is (partially) dedicated to electing Democrats. And my position is that you should vote for King in order to help re-elect a Democratic Senate rather than vote for the candidate who cant find 20% in the polls in a blue state and whose only possible contribution to the election would be to split the Democratic vote and gift the seat to the GOP.

          •  I'm calling you an idiot.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NM Ward Chair

            ....for not voting for Cthulhu--the evil of two lessors!


          •  Voting for Dill is worse than for Mark Clayton nt (0+ / 0-)

            ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

            by GoUBears on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:59:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  stick to your guns, the name callers are fools (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            If they had used some logic instead of immediatly calling you names I might agree with them. But since the dumbasses are so fucking arrogant they think calling ugly names is a way to get votes, fuck them. They're the stupid ones in this thread. Even if you decide in the booth to vote King don't let the assholes have their chance to gloat.

            America could have chosen to be the worlds doctor, or grocer. We choose instead to be her policeman. pity

            by cacamp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:59:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not to be all heaty or anything... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          but if you're going to call someone stupid, as a general rule, your argument loses much of its force if you say "Your being stupid."

          In terms of just what passes for "stupid," one of the points about democracy that is both good and bad is that "the people," as a group, learn from their mistakes.  Why is John Bolton (and John Bolton-style thinking) persona non-grata?  Because Bush II ran American military imperialism, right into the ground.

          In 2008, NONE of the candidates of ANY party was running as the incumbent.  One of my favorite debate moments, ever, was during the GOP 2008, when Romney "introduced" himself, used the word "change" at least a dozen times in less than 90 seconds.  McCain was up next, and McCain said "If you're looking for the candidate of change, that's Mitt Romney."

          Sometimes, you have to vote your conscience, and stop going for the lesser of two evils.  If the GOPpers take the senate seat in Maine, it won't be the end of the world.  After all, look at all the number of times that Jesse Helms, Strom Thurmond, and James Eastland were all elected to the Senate.  Can you really look me in the eyeball, and tell me that Charlie Summers is a bigger piece of shit than James Eastland?  Who in the Senate is comparable to James Eastland?  I'll tell you: no one.

          Having to go one step back, to get to two steps forward...that's not always a bad thing.  YES, Bush II was an abomination for America and the planet as a whole.  But would we have ObamaCare, but for the bounce back against that abomination?

          I would never criticize anyone for voting their conscience (unless your conscience tells you to vote for Strom Thurmond.  Then, you should just concentrate on not having children).  If Acadia has looked at all the options, and decided that a vote for Dill is what's best for Maine, then I'm going to say whatever atheists say that means "gods speed."

          The fact remains, the further of the race, the strength of the nation, does not live or die over who's the junior senator from Maine.  

          (Then again, I come from a long line of people who got into fist fights over whether a vote for Wallace was a vote for Dewey....)

          •  huh? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Your argument is that feeling all warm and righteous about your vote (non hand wringer for "voting with your conscience") is more important than the actual result of your vote? And hey its ok cos Summers wouldnt be as bad as all those old racist Southerners!


            Maybe calling Acadia stupid was counter productive and maybe getting a ton of heat on Kos for deciding to do so will make him/her rethink that folly.

        •  what's with the name calling? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Totally unnecessary. Really tempted to toss you a donut.


      •  Uh, that's gonna help Summers win. (7+ / 0-)

        This is a numbers game, and I don't give a damn how fiscally backward King is. If he splits the liberal vote, Charlie Summers will become a US Senator.

        The math in these situations is so goddamn simple, but people ceaslessly manage to screw it up.

        Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

        by Zutroy on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:20:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Angus King...what an asshole! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        This guy would be ten times worse than Lieberman. The fact that he'd even consider caucusing with Jim Inhofe, Jim DeMint, and Mitch McConnell should turn any Dem away in disgust. Good job supporting Dill. Hopefully all Maine Dems follow suit, and Angus is left with his <20% of the vote from independents only.

      •  I'm a total outsider to ME, but... (0+ / 0-)

        Wouldn't a pretty good scenario be King winning this election and Dill winning in 2014? Dill has never been above 3rd place in any of the polls.

  •  No real net changes in national polling. (25+ / 0-)

    I think it's a bit mystifying at this point why anyone would put stock in a LV poll when the RV polls seem to align better with state polling.  Politico had an article over the weekend which quoted the Romney campaign as saying they expected bad public polls in NV, OH and VA.  They were not spinning as it turned out.  +9 OH, +11 NV, +8 VA.  Not to mention NH which now seems to be officially off the battleground map.

    Obama has now led in 5 out of the last 7 polls in NC.  Pretty good.

    Going into the debates, both sides know exactly what the score is on the electoral college map.  That impacts strategy.  Obama is going to hew tightly to his script and that will put Romney in a difficult position.  That's why you see Romney trying some awkward last minute policy shifts, because he knows that's exactly where Obama will strike.  

    If there was an impact to the 2008 debates, it was that new states were put in play:  NC, IN, MO and MT.  None of those affected the final result, but the pressure Obama put on McCain in those states (winning 2 of them) forced the pollsters to align behind a likely Obama victory and ended all thought of a close race.

    Same thing could happen if Obama has a solid debate performance tomorrow night. I think he will strengthen his position in North Carolina (where he is already polling ahead of his 2008 numbers).  It is also possible that MO and AZ get put into play, but I doubt Obama goes for either of those states.

    The amount of money being thrown into the primary battlegrounds by superpacs will require Obama to increase his spending in those states over the course of this month.  That will actually help Democrats downticket, as he might be able to help shift some House races and get Berkley enough of a boost to win in NV.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:44:03 PM PDT

    •  Here is the thing (11+ / 0-)

      virtually ALL state polling is with likely voters.

      Today Obama had his best day of state polling this year.  The 6 polls released 9/30 (NH +15, NC -4, NC 0, OH +5,OH +9, FL+3) project to an  8.1 Obama lead. In addition, the one 10/1 poll in NC was O+2 (which projects to a 9.3 point lead).

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:42:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, lots of lv at this time of year. few rv. nt. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NM Ward Chair
      •  Here is by graph (12+ / 0-)

        Note the growing gap between the national number and the state number.  This is a 5 day rolling average.

        I am proud to say I have done this since 2000, and I don't think anyone else runs this comparison:

        And why you should trust state averages more than national averages - a very revealing chart from 2000, the 5 day moving average of state an national polling, with the days remaining in the race.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:59:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  + (0+ / 0-)

          I like your chart a lot.  538 does a mix of state and national polls to come up with the final margin.  The final margin may be fairly irrelevant here, since Obama will get trounced in many Southern states, Utah, Idaho, etc, and there are less states where Romney gets completely trounced, so the swing state averages are what is most relevant.  The state averages do not genrally include states that are out of reach, and frankly, I would only think that about 15 states are relevant at all for polling, since 35 states are easily out of reach one way or the other.

          •  You need (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            all of the polls to spot trends.  Of the 199 polls in September, 133 were in close states.   You get a fair number of polls with Senate races (eg Mass) which are not close.

            The close state average is for the month 3.93 is almost identical to the overall month average 4.034.  

            The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

            by fladem on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:06:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  that Virginia poll is just brutal. Obama at well (17+ / 0-)

      over 50 , at 52, among likely voters, and willard not even up to 45. and a large gap among women voters.

      deep, deep trouble for willard. Ohio is out of reach for him. he absolutely afford to allow another crucial state to be taken off the board. and if this Virginia poll is confirmed, it is off. In Florida, the President still has a mid single digits lead. and willard and lyin are taking it on the chin because seniors don't want their medicare voucherized.

      •  FL will go for Obama (8+ / 0-)

        I am a senior living on Social Security, Medicare and a small pension in Cape Coral, FL. I attended Biden's rally this past Saturday across the river in Ft. Myers. It was exciting and only served to buttress my belief that Obama will carry FL.

        I know that if I had only ONE reason to vote for Obama, it would be to safeguard my Medicare and Social Security. I get angry when I see Romney standing behind a sign claiming he will "Protect and Strengthen Medicare," etc.  His idea of how to go about protecting and strengthening it is diametrically opposed to how I would like to see that happen.

        I have been making calls to locals to GOTV, and I often hear seniors telling me they support Obama "strongly." The reason? Fear of what Romney/Ryan would do to their beloved programs. And yes, we seniors do care about the generations coming along behind us. We want to make sure they can enjoy the peace of mind I/we have now about how much benefit we get from Medicare and Social Security as we currently know them. Privatizing Social Security and voucherizing them is not what we want to see happen to these great programs.

        And that, my dear, is precisely the reason I'm voting for Obama and I predict, most seniors here in FL and elsewhere who are not party ideologues or Romney-wealthy will do as well. It is just that simple. (And don't get me started about the Affordable Care Act and how good that is and will be for all of us as it fully kicks in...doughnut hole anyone? Pre-existing conditions? Lifetime caps? I could go on, and on, and on, but I won't.)

      •  Obama rides Tim Kane's coat tails !! (0+ / 0-)

        And the Constitution Party is pulling 3% out of Mitt Romney's pasty be-hind.

        Kane is up by 10%. Obama by 3 to 5%.

        Love it.

        Obama takes Ohio and Virginia, that's the set up for a presidential map that ends GOP dominaton of the White House.

        "Permanent conservative majority"... gone !!

    •  speaking of NC, is Dalton that bad or did Perdue (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bear83, NM Ward Chair, Sylv

      just really, really suck as governor?  I mean really, Obama can be taking the state but a local Democrat can't hold the governorship?  What gives?

      •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Perdue has been awful. She took a few stands to veto some of the worst GOP legislation, but she couldn't manage to hold the Democratic caucus together on her budget vetoes or on fracking.

        Perdue poisoned the well for Dalton, and then held out too long on her decision not to run for re-election, leaving Dems too little time to organize and campaign.

        Dalton is a conservadem - pro-business, and just not that exciting for Democrats.

        McCrory has been running for Governor since 2007 - kind of like Mitt running for Pres. And like Mitt, he's been long on generic plans and short on details.

        McCrory is running as Mr Generic Republican, and Dalton hasn't had the time or money to pin him down on anything. NC voters simply don't understand what they are getting in McCrory - a rubberstamp for the crazies running the legislature.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:04:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Realistically, control of the governor's (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Denver11, NM Ward Chair, Woody

          office was going to flip at some point.  The Dems have had it for a very long time.

          •  Yeah ... and the guy before Perdue wasn't the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NM Ward Chair

            cleanest guy around, IIRC

          •  We've had 2 GOP governors (3+ / 0-)

            in the 20th century - Holshouser in the 70s and Jim Martin in the 90s - but neither of them had a GOP-controlled legislature, and that's what is so dangerous about McCrory winning.

            NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

            by bear83 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:26:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  NC Gov (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              McCroy continues to poll very favorably with independents.  I'm not really sure why although I suspect it has to do with the fact that NC has not had a Republican governor in 20 years and they are wanting something different.  The really baffling part is that the new PPP poll indicates that he is getting 19% of Democrats.

              I don't know a huge amount about his tenure as mayor of Charlotte but it has been said that if the Pat McCroy who was mayor were running for governor he'd be running as a Democrat.

              After his narrow loss in 2008 he began to kiss up to the right to head off a serious primary challenge and since 2010 that meant kissing up to the crazies who took over the legislature. Now he just seems to be trying to coast on his lead which has a lot to do with a very disorganized and woefully underfunded Dalton campaign.  

              The Republican legislature is deeply unpopular (16% in the new PPP poll) but people don't seem to be able to connect the dots to a McCroy administration further strengthening those nuts.

              The only encouraging thing about the PPP poll is that McCroys' 10 point lead does not appear to be helping Republicans in the Council of State races, although no numbers were given for Lt. Governor.

              “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

              by RoIn on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:06:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  NC Lt Gov - Forest (R) 46, Coleman (D) 43 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                SUSA poll, Sat-Mon, 3.6 MOE.


                With Obama on top of the ticket, I would expect Coleman to pull this one out.

                NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

                by bear83 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:19:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Still... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...three points behind makes me nervous.

                  “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

                  by RoIn on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:29:10 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There was a PPP poll last week (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    that had Coleman up 4 points. This one's going down to the wire.

                    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

                    by bear83 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 07:31:17 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Lt. Gov (0+ / 0-)

                      I know that the Lt. Governor's powers are pretty limited but the idea of handing over everything to Republicans is not a pleasant thought and we certainly don't want Dan Forest to be in a position for higher office.

                      “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

                      by RoIn on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 08:34:25 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Perdue=Bill Richardson (0+ / 0-)

        the 2010 version, not the 2006 version.

        The bottom 1% are the most egregious victims of Wall Street's class war. We 99% must not abandon them.

        by NM Ward Chair on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:36:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Agree with your observation (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It's as if the media wants to jump at the only result that shows things getting closer.  We see this all the time.  The media loves a narrative of a close race.

      With that said, this race is hardly over. We still to work hard to get it over the finish line.

      "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

      by noofsh on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 04:15:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Somebody go email Nate Silver (12+ / 0-)

    He is treating the National Journal Poll like a swing when the pollsters changed to a right wing pollster.

  •  This is so irritating (12+ / 0-)

    Presidential debates have produced some of the most memorable moments of modern campaigns: A tanned and relaxed John Kennedy meeting a sweaty and pasty Richard Nixon in 1960. Gerald Ford denying Soviet domination of Eastern Europe in 1976. Al Gore sighing and rolling his eyes in 2000.
    Gore crushed Bush in that debate and made him look like a fool and all the media could talk about then and now was the fact that Gore sighed and rolled his eyes a few times at Bush's idiocy and how uninformed he was on important issues on a national stage. Instead they media just hyper-inflated a few little gestures of irritation.

    With Louisiana it's probably just understating Romney's support, and all the undecideds will go to him as well.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:47:32 PM PDT

  •  national polls make no sense (10+ / 0-)

    Obama seems to be running away in every swing state but the national polls are pretty close. Either the national polls are useless or the state polls should tighten soon.

  •  Why do you say Obama lost a point in PPP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamfan, divineorder, wishingwell

    This says it is a tie.

  •  Not buying that National Journal (5+ / 0-)

    Poll, if there is one thing that has happened this week is the media's desire to create a the race is a dead heat meme. More eyeballs and clicks for them if they can sell that.

    I believe Obama today is currently up from anywhere between four to six points, and that lead could grow after the debates. Many of these pollsters are using a vastly tight likely voter screen that is keeping the race closer than it really is in reality.

  •  Where is the House of RaZ now? (6+ / 0-)

    If you notice Raz did not update its monthy weighting of LV Democrats/Republicans?

    What is he doing?

    Is he messing with the secret sauce?

  •  Could the national Polls (7+ / 0-)

    also be picking up some super red-red numbers from the generally unpolled safe R states like Idaho, Okie & Wyoming and the south coast?

    Because I am not sensing any "huge story" out there that is building any polling Mitmentum at Obama's expense, other than Romney's gob has been less open of late which confirms this notion that he does better when people do not see or hear him...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:06:07 PM PDT

  •  Seriously, has anyone emailed or commened to Nate (7+ / 0-)


    THe last National Journal Poll was Heartland Monitor.  This one was by United Technologies, some sort of defense contractor.

    I can't email or comment on NYT.

  •  Heileman (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SoCalLiberal, Delilah

    is he the "good" cop to his partner Halperin's "bad" one?

  •  Nearly 60% of voters think Obama wins the debate (6+ / 0-)

    This kind of expectation would seemingly suggest it's Romney's to lose.  I would infer a 1-2 pt shift for Romney if he ends up holding his own with his rather spotty record on a lot of issues(I understand I read somewhat filtered news, but I am going to be interested in how he will explain his defense of Masscare while vowing to repeal Obamacare), at which point the national media will breathe a collective sigh of relief that they can still call the race tied up or with the challenger leading.  

    Obama has a lot of the vote already baked in, and that's what will be driving the home stretch of the race.  GOTV has been nothing short of spectacular for Democrats, and the base has been unusually enthused and excited to vote for the President.  Obama is basically hammering down its firewall states right now (Iowa, Nevada, Colorado)  If the voter fraud situation actually has legs, it may well be the Foley scandal of 2012, especially if Democrats can connect this somehow to GOP leadership.

  •  MOE, MOE, MOE (6+ / 0-)

    Movements in polls of 1 or 2 points in any direction do not represent "tightening" or "loosening" or gaining or losing or rising or falling.  They mean exactly this: NOTHING HAS CHANGED (as far as we know).  

    A dozen pollsters could poll the exact same population of a million people, in which every last person has made up his or her mind with unwavering certainty, and produce results that vary and change, from day to day and poll to poll, from, say 50%-44% to 48%-46% to 47%-47%, etc., etc.  And EVERY ONE of those polls would be equally valid, equally reliable, and there would be NO reason to say that there was any "movement" whatsoever from one day to the next.

    I know this is essentially well-known to poll followers here, but it bears repeating, again and again.

    Yet it is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set... -- Gandalf

    by dnta on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:05:07 PM PDT

    •  this is what i was thinking as i read steve's post (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, dnta

      it does bear repeating. so, thanks for doing it - this is noise, float around moe. no real movement nationally. and those national polls count for nothing at all. but we are winning those too.

      we are leading in a healthy way in crucial swing states.

  •  Race tightening? (10+ / 0-)

    The national polls aren't really showing Obama falling off.  Support seems to be steadying around 49-50, while Romney bounces back out of the low 40s.  It is a big reach for Rs to get excited about the national journal poll.  Of all the National Polls, 47% is Obama's worst # and Romney's best.  If a tie is the biggest outlier in their favor, they're in trouble.  Does anyone even remember the last time Romney led in a national poll?

  •  When was Romney not hurting? (6+ / 0-)

    Shouldn't that headline be "Romney hurting in swing states (still)"?

    When was the last time he wasn't behind?  Even in places where he is close he seems to be stuck at 44-46%.

    As the president's number hits and passes 50%, there is really nothing left to do but GOTV.

    •  Romney has never, ever held a lead (5+ / 0-)

      in the national polling. He's held leads in individual national polls, and certainly some state polls, and he's also been tied, but the last time he lead in the totality of polling was October of 2011. This hardly explains everything, but he's never had a clear lead in any significant sense, or in any sense at all in a lot of ways.

      I'm not sure a lot of people realize this. I was certainly surprised to see it. It's definitely true, though. Check the RCP tracker.

      There's still time, but he's never lead. Why should it so suddenly change?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:32:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My nightmare (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, LordMike, GOPGO2H3LL, bena, Sylv

        My nightmare is that things do suddenly change.  The political events of the last thirty years have permanently deprived me of any confidence.  The fact that Romney is not trailing by more than 10 points everywhere is a sign that there are still far too many people who just do not get it.

        My hope this week is for a Romney disaster in the debate.  It would put him back far enough that he will not have time to climb back.

        But my hopes in political matters are rarely realized. So I am left with nightmares.

        Election day cannot come soon enough for me.

        •  Just because you're paranoid (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Sylv

          that doesn't mean you're wrong.

          I'm not sure where all that Koch and Adelson money went, but I'm sure there's millions more available waiting to jump on any opportunity - or even make one up...

          NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

          by bear83 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:11:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  This is what distinguishes him from Kerry (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Kerry got a pretty significant convention bounce, and outright led Bush in national polling for at least a month or two in the first half of 2004 before the conventions.  Romney's convention tied him nationally, and he has never really led by much afterwards.  

        Granted, a lot has changed in 8 years and the polls are unusually stable this time around, but it's still the burden of proof on Romney to show he will end up leading rather than to be able to divine the tea leaves from historical data.  Kerry did almost tie the race in 2004 after Bush made that gaffe, so that's where Romney's seeing an opening, but I am having a hard time seeing Obama making a similar mistake after the past 20 years have shown both candidates the absolute no-nos of debates (looking bored, getting caught off guard etc.).

  •  Well, I'm heartened by the Wall Stret Journal (7+ / 0-)

    poll today that shows Obama's lead amongst registering voters holding up (going up by 1% which I think is statistically insignificant).  I don't think anything is wrapped up in this election yet (still 5 weeks to go).  But I am feeling far more confident and I'd rather be in this position than in theirs.  

    Obama has a solid opportunity to pick up Missouri (I still think Arizona and Georgia are possibilities).  Louisiana would only make sense if there really is a large national swing of blue collar white women behind the President.  I don't know that that's happenning but I could imagine why so many women in that position would become disenchanted with Romney and start swinging behind the President.  Still, it'd probably be better for the campaign to reserve its money for the states that need it and where Obama has a certain chance.  

    Check out my new blog:

    by SoCalLiberal on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:22:17 PM PDT

    •  The one reservation I have about the race (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair, Woody, SoCalLiberal, Sylv

      is tied to the silly historical precedent regarding second term Presidents and how only one (Wilson) has ever been reelected with fewer EVs than his first race.  While it does seem a daunting task since Obama isn't hitting more than 335ish EVs at this point, it also seems like something that is absolutely doable at this point.  

      If Romney flubs this debate, it is conceivable that OFA may start throwing money into Arizona and Missouri, which are the top "lean R" states that can go into the tossup column.  I would also like to see Obama get some action in the Plains States, since they're cheap and Democrats would do well to see the top ticket start seriously spending coin in North Dakota and Montana.  Indiana is a stretch simply because there is no longer the same ground game as there was last time, but if Obama were to actually improve his popular vote margin, states like that may start tipping as well.  

  •  Louisiana is pretty close actually (0+ / 0-)


    Lets see what the debate will bring! Given how much Romney "prepared" for this, I expect to see a Robot Romney with plenty of fake outrage, and fake robo answers as well as typical evasive dodgeballs

  •  Angus King should be an (I) not an (R). EOM (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, NM Ward Chair
  •  Thanks, Steve (a fan letter) (12+ / 0-)

    Dear Steve,

    I am a very infrequent poster on this site, but have become an avid follower of Polling wrap. I must thank you for the excellence you bring to it. You are clearly a partisan for Obama, as am I , but I appreciate the thoughtful and incisive analysis.  My main go-to has been Nate Silver, and I do believe he is excellent, but I am as likely to come here as there nowadays, because you do not have to offer a pretense of grey lady concern troll "balance",  the kind that occasionally makes Mr. Silver sound downright silly. Today's 538 is a good example of that. I have so much respect for Nate's analysis, that I thought "ok, fair enough. National Journal Poll swung 7 points, so maybe there is something to this national polls tightening meme." That is certainly how Nate spun it. However, as you point out, the April poll was ALL adults, whereas this one is a tight definition of LV. I don't think Nate stumbles too often, but I am VERY glad that sharp analysts like you put things in perspective on those occasions when he does.  That was a major miss for him, and it was pretty easy for him to catch that with one or two search terms on national journal.

    You are absolutely right to also point out that the margin among registered voters in the NBC/WSJ poll is the largest it has been in many months, and when you include the 3rd party candidates, the LV margin is the same.

    It is transparent that the media are spinning a horse race, and that is certainly understandable. I don't think most MSM journalists have a horse in this horse race beyond wanting eyeballs and clicks, and clearly a close race does that. (i think that most probably favor Obama over Romney on a personal level). So they put a slight thumb on the scale in the interest of doing that when reporting polls. It definitely drives the narrative. I mean, the headline could just as easily be "Obama moves to largest registered voter lead of the year in NBC/WSJ poll, Gallup moves Obama back up to post-convention largest lead, Romney trails on all swing states today", but that would e the same story they have been telling since the DNC convention and esp. since the 47% comments.  

    Tomorrow is a big day. I don't think Romney can have a knockout punch, but I believe he is one gaffe (true statement of how he really feels) away from drowning his own campaign. I eagerly await your analysis of the post-debate polls, since I have fairly little doubt the talking heads and beltway crowd will give it to Romney unless he starts screaming FUCK the poor or orders Obama to shine his shoes.

    One question. If you were Obama, what "leans GOP" state would you put money into to make Romney play a little D on his rapidly shrinking turf? I would suggest Arizona, because Carmona has a real shot.

  •  Teahadists are hoping that this Issa hearing on (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Fury, askew, Supavash, Sylv

    Libya swings the polls to Romney and wins it for him. They are convinced the debates, October surprises, and the President being hammered on Libya will give MItt the election.  I keep reading comments by Republicans that they are very hopeful that this Libya thing and the debates will swing the polls to Mittens. LOL

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:51:04 PM PDT

  •  For all the crap thrown at Nate Silver.... (8+ / 0-)

    in this thread, his latest article (10/1) in Five Thirty eight (whatever) addresses this specific question, as to whether the polls are "tightening."  He concludes that no, they really aren't.  However, his model anticipates the polls to tighten, as we get closer to November 6.

    But even with anticipating the polls getting tighter, Silver still forecasts the chances of President Obama being reelected at roughly 85%.

    More than the national polls, though, what the hell can anyone be thinking, in terms of the electoral college?  Silver's analysis has Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin as "Likely Obama;" and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Mexico as "Safe Obama."

    In what UNIVERSE, absent President Obama getting a federal RICO conviction for murder and drug trafficking between now and November 6, that Romney gets to 270 votes in the electoral college?

  •  Why is mainstream media (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, LordMike, Woody

    still placing so much importance on national polls? It doesn't mean squat. Only the electoral college matters now.

    "There ain't no sanity clause." Chico Marx

    by DJ Rix on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:16:12 PM PDT

  •  Pelican state? Beehive state? Who knew? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Sylv

    Well, Steve, I learn something new from you every day, and I had no idea there was a pelican and a beehive state.

    Watching any political show is getting ridiculous. It's as if a little league team was getting ready to play that Yankees, and the sportscasters are going, "Well, Jim, this looks like it's gonna be a close one."

  •  Louisiana (4+ / 0-)

    A 6% margin in Louisiana seems unlikely, but possible - given the large number of undecided voters, in a state that leans pretty strongly Republican post-Katrina (and was trending that way beforehand), those undecideds likely have an R lean to them anyhow. But they've also been getting to live under complete Republican control, and they're starting to see what that entails. I would not at this point take a bet on Louisiana coming within ten, let alone six. But I can see a plausible reason why at this point in the race that would be an accurate summation of where people stand.

    Also, there's one line from the Louisiana results that was really heartening: "Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has the highest job performance of any statewide elected official." I've been looking at the 2014 races, and purely going by redness-of-state Louisiana was one of the most challenging holds (Alaska, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, West Virginia, in my entirely informal just-based-on-state-lean, incumbent-skill-and-favorability-not-included ranking). If Landrieu is the highest-rated statewide elected official, either she would start the race with a higher rating than her challenger, or she'd face off against someone who hadn't won a statewide race. Either way, that's a hopeful sign.

    NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

    by realnrh on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 10:36:57 PM PDT

  •  "Obama's Failing Agenda" tour rolling through IL (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like the Koch/AFP Failbus is rolling through Illinois, from the latest ads I've seen on here.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 12:41:11 AM PDT

  •  NBC/Marist OH, FL, VA (5+ / 0-)

    OH:  Obama 51-43

    FL:  Obama 47-46

    VA:  Obama 48-46

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 02:43:36 AM PDT

    •  Ohio again way out ahead (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      among the "big 3" of the battleground states. While Romney has hills to climb in most of the contested states he has mountains in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. These are the states that seem by far most likely to deliver the required 270 EVs to Obama.

    •  Their FL and VA polls skew way too old (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, Sylv, askew

      For some reason, they called far fewer cell phones than last time. That's probably a big part of the reason only 8% of likely voters they polled in Florida were under 30 (compared to 15% in the 2008 exit poll) and a ridiculous 42% were over 60 (17% over 65 in 2008).

      In Virginia, only 11% of likely voters polled were under 30 (compared to 21% in 2008) and 30% over 60 (11% over 65 in 2008.

      •  I presume they must have reweighted though (0+ / 0-)

        otherwise in FL in particular it's hard to see how Obama could have any kind of lead.

        •  Hmm, not so much (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Sylv, itskevin, badlands

          They seem to be projecting around 30% of the electorate under-45 and 70% 45+, versus 40-60 last time. That's a pretty big call and makes a significant difference given the age skew of the numbers. Obama's lead would rise to 3 points in FL on this sample if under-45s are the same proportion of the electorate as 4 years ago.

      •  For VA, their race balance must be nuts (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, Sylv, itskevin

        Obama is "only" down 20 among whites, 1 point less than in 2008, and is up 82-13 among non-whites. With a racial turnout similar to 2008 that would give him almost the same margin as 2008. To get it down to 2% you have to have a white share of the electorate of 75%, 5% MORE than 4 years ago.

        That is just utterly ridiculous - what are Marist playing at?!

        VA crosstabs are here [pdf] in case anyone else wants to double-check.

  •  NJ: Obama 56-39 (6+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 03:07:07 AM PDT

  •  FL-02 - NRCC going in for Southerland. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv, redrelic17, itskevin

    This is going to be a fun one.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 03:12:26 AM PDT

    •  I think this one might be a toss up now (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, Christopher Walker

      You've seen a big movement toward House Dems in Florida lately.  At first I thought it was only because Allen West is a kook and David Rivera is the biggest, stupidest, most corrupt asshole in Congress, but there's evidence that Val Demings might be close in her race too.  I think a lot of House Reps in FL should be sweating right now, maybe even Vern Buchanan and Bill Young.

  •  The VA-Sen number from Roanoke (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is very good, giving Kaine a bigger lead than recent polls. Any thoughts on it?

  •  NPR Poll - Obama 51-44 with LV's (9+ / 0-)

    I don't know which I like better, the top line or the hilarious headline that this shows Romney "within striking distance."  This poll is pretty favorable to Obama compared to others this week, but if it is accurate, Romney is not within striking distance.  At all.  He would be finished barring an unprecedented October comeback.  Really big media push in favor of Romney this week.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 03:35:56 AM PDT

  •  The Senate polls look great...but we definitely... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Sherri in TX, abgin

    need as many states as we can get. The states up for Senate elections in 2014 look brutal.

     Midterm elections 6 years removed from a wave election, right wingers will be unhinged from all the rumors about Obama fulfilling his 2016 prophecy...

     The only DEM pickup I think would be possible is ME,

     and there are at least 7 red states with DEM senators as incumbents. Makes me think we really need to shoot hard for AZ, MT, and NV this election to give us 57 seats.

  •  Romney improves marginally on the RAND tracker (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, badlands, Sylv

    where he's had a relatively good week, but the round-number figure remains 50-44 Obama.

  •  I really hate this RV versus LV distinction (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    how can you bed so sure someone will or will will not vote.  Seems arbitrary to me.  So all the battleground polls show Obama maintaining and increasing a lead.  Romney is getting worse in favorable ratings yet LV has tightened in this one poll while RV went other way.  Doesn't add up.

    I would say that the President has an overall 4-5 lead per pollster and an even better margin in battleground states.

    We can't rest on this lead though.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

    by noofsh on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 04:08:07 AM PDT

  •  National Journal Pres: 47-47 LVs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Sylv

    I guess this and the NPR one with a 7-point Obama lead will count as the two outliers. Slightly better news even here beneath the hood as Obama leads 49-44 among RVs.

    They project the white vote share nationally will remain at 74%, same as last time, while African American share will decline by 2 points to 11%. The Latino share will also be down a point to 8. I'll believe that when I see it - it's quite out of line with the engagement/enthusiasm numbers I've been seeing. My guesstimate is that it will be more like 72-13-11, which would be sufficient for a few point Obama lead even with this sample.

  •  And it looks like no CBS/NYT poll today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Sylv

    I'm surprised, but not disappointed.

  •  TX-Sen Paul Sadler can make this a race! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Thanks for including the Tx Lyceum info (not in today's Elections Morning Digest).  No surprise with the Obama-Rmoney.


    Ted Cruz leads Paul Sadler 50 - 24, 26% undecided

    That's: 26% undecided
    This gives Paul Sadler an opening in the Texas Senate race.

    Kossacks, you must read these two diaires about Paul Sadler and his first debate last night in Dallas with "Crazy" Ted Cruz, now also known as "Troll" Ted Cruz:

    1. eve, last night:

    2. etmike (who apparently knows Sadler personally), from this morning:

    This diary is dropping off the front page, and Paul Sadler and last night's debate deserves some traction here.


    Paul Sadler is an excellent candidate for Senate in Texas.  Without some help, we will ALL see "Crazy Troll" Ted Cruz the NEXT SIX YEARS in the U.S. Senate.

    Act Blue link for Paul Sadler (h/t to mffarrow):
    Added bonus Gov. Rick "Goodhair" (h/t to Molly Ivins for the nickname) Perry poll data:

    Should Governor Perry run for re-election?
    30% against, 18% for, 53% will wait and see

    Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

    by tom 47 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 07:41:12 AM PDT

    •  The poll's likely voter screen is way too tight (0+ / 0-)

      Yes Sadler has a shot if he can get his message out, and the poll's likely voter screen is way too tight.  It says you are a likely voter if you voted in most of the elections the past 2-3 years!  Off-year constitutional amendment and local election voters are not the only voters in a presidential election.  

      The actual numbers in Texas are probably Romney +10 to 12 and Cruz +17 to 19 as found in the YouGov poll and Sadler's internal poll.

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