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Welcome, friends. The purpose of this regular series is to promote enthusiasm and action among Daily Kos members. Romney will very likely out-fundraise President Obama. However, we believe that we can still win if (1) we can remain competitive financially, and (2) we volunteer our time and energy (GOTV, canvassing, phonebanking, LTE, ...).

ObamaNightlyNews posts every night at 9:00 ET, 8:00 CT, 7:00 MT, 6:00 PT


Polling for every swing state

Volunteer at Obama For America to help register voters and participate in
As is our custom, we provide voter registration information for three states in the Tuesday Night Edition of Obama Nightly News. We have shared how to register and how to vote in every hotly contested swing state already. We are returning, if you will, to the scene of our past crimes !

Today, like last week, we decided to pick Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina.
North Carolina was an obvious choice since that state is so close in the polling.
Virginia is a neighboring state and is a swing state. Hence, it seemed to make sense to pick Virginia this week.
Florida is the closest swing state in polling that we are favored to win.

Florida

Florida

To register to vote in Florida, you need :

6.Provide your current and valid Florida driver’s license number or Florida identification card number. If you do not have a Florida driver’s license number or a Florida identification card number then you must provide the last four digits of your Social Security Number. If you do not have any of these items, you must write “none” in the box or field.
8.You must be registered for at least 29 days before you can vote in an election
The book closing dates for the 2012 election cycle are:

January 3, 2012………………Presidential Preference Primary
July 16, 2012……………………Primary Election
October 9, 2012………………General Election

On election day, to vote you need :
Florida requires a valid picture identification and a signature to vote. The following photo IDs will be accepted:

◦Florida driver’s license
 ◦Florida identification card issued by the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles
 ◦United States passport
 ◦Debit or credit card
 ◦Military identification
 ◦Student identification
 ◦Retirement center identification
 ◦Neighborhood association identification
 ◦Public assistance identification

If your photo identification does not contain your signature, you can show a second ID that does. For example: your student photo ID + your debit card.

call Florida’s Voter Assistance Hotline at 1-866-308-6739.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Virginia

Virginia

Get registered to vote with your current name, at your current address, by 22 days before Election Day.

 To be registered for the November 6th, 2012 General Election, you must be registered no later than October 15th, 2012.

More info :
FIRST TIME VOTERS

If it’s your first time voting in a federal election in Virginia, be sure you bring one of the following types of identification containing your current and complete name and current address:

◦A current and valid photo ID (for example a driver’s license); OR
 ◦ A current utility bill, bank statement, government check or paycheck that shows name and address; OR
 ◦ Another government document that shows name and address (for example, a voter card).

ALL OTHER VOTERS

Make sure you bring one of these forms of identification in order for your vote to count:

◦A Virginia voter registration card
 ◦A valid Virginia driver’s license
 ◦A military ID
 ◦Any Federal, Virginia state or local government-issued ID
 ◦An employer issued photo ID card
 ◦A Social Security card
 ◦A student ID from a Virginia Public School
 ◦A student ID from any Virginia college or university
 ◦A copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check or paycheck that has your name and address
 ◦For other acceptable forms of identification see here

Note: Any voter who forgets to bring acceptable ID to the polls may still vote, but will be required to submit the ID to the local electoral board by noon on Friday following the election, by fax, e-mail, mail, or in-person.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
North Carolina

Our first state for our voter registration today is North Carolina.

The Voter Registration Process

To vote in North Carolina, a person who meets the qualifications above must sign and complete a voter registration application. When completing a voter registration application, be sure to provide your full name, residential address, date of birth, and citizenship status. In addition, do not forget to sign the form. Failure to complete a required field on the form will delay the processing of the application. After completion, send the form to the appropriate county board of elections. In order to vote in an election, the form must be received by the voter registration deadline.

If an application is complete, the county board of elections will notify registrants of their precinct and polling place assignments by mail (voter card). Voter registration applicants, who have met the voter registration deadline, should expect to receive their voter card within 1 to 2 weeks. The voter card is a non-forwardable mailing. If a voter card is returned by the postal service as undeliverable after two attempts, then an applicant’s voter registration may subsequently be denied. Applicants should contact their county board of elections if they do not receive their voter card within two weeks. Note: The applicant must have transmitted the registration application by the registration deadline; otherwise, the voter card will not be mailed until after the completion of the election.  

Voter Registration Deadlines

The deadline to register to vote in North Carolina is 25 days before the day of an election

These people are not friendsof democracy :
What Constitutes A Vote

Pursuant to Section 301 (a)(6) of the Help America Vote Act of 2002, codified as 42 U.S.C. § 15481(a)(6), and N.C.G.S. § 163-182.1(b), the State Board of Elections has developed these standards and procedures to define what is a vote and when that vote should be counted in circumstances in which voting systems are unable to determine the voter’s intent with respect to a marked ballot.

:
on election dayIf this is your first time voting in a federal election in North Carolina, you may be asked to show ID before you can vote on Election Day. Identification may include (but is not limited to):

 ◦A North Carolina driver’s license
 ◦Another valid photo ID
 ◦A current utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or other government document that shows your current and complete name and current address.

If you’ve previously voted in a federal election in North Carolina, you don’t have to bring an ID with you to the polls.

If you have additional questions about voting in North Carolina, please contact: Elections Division: (919) 733-7173 or (866) 522-4723; elections.sboe@ncsbe.gov

Sometime in the not too distant future, I plan to explore the ramifications of swing states and the electoral college. For, this could remover the tether that connects individual states (and their polls) with national polls. In other words, since President Obama and willard have many states locked down - where the other cannot get to 50, neither of them focus on those states. Neither of them advertise or campaign or invest resources in those states. The numbers in those states could become lopsided or closer. This would effect the national polls. Yet, it would not effect the electoral college.

Therefore, the relationship that individual states have to the national polls has become very tenuous. I am, therefore, leaning towards the view that the national polls are not as informative of the polls in individual swing states as they used to be. Moreover, I predict that this will become increasingly true.

I also have this belief that this jeopardizes our democracy. For, essentially we have the two candidates only competing for the available votes in a few swing states. Thankfully, demographics and the exceptional nature of President Obama widened the map, at least for us. However, soon, demographics will put some of the newly minted Democratic states into safe Democratic status. And we will continue competing for the votes of a few voters in swing states. It is like the primary process which is fairly flawed, only worse.

It may be time to have a serious discussion about the electoral college. I am not saying that I am against the electoral college. I am saying that it merits a real discussion since the above disadvantage is quite serious.

10:51 PM PT: I just did the commit to vote thing. It was cool also just to verify my registration.

https://www.barackobama.com/...

Please early vote if you can !

Please donate what you can !

Please remember that downballot races are EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!

Thank you very much !


Ohio

POLLSTER    DATES    POP.    OBAMA    ROMNEY    UNDECIDED    MARGIN   
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS    9/18 - 9/24    1,162 LV     53     43     3     Obama +10   
Washington Post    9/19 - 9/23    759 LV     52     44     2     Obama +8   
Gravis Marketing    9/21 - 9/22    594 LV     45     44     10     Obama +1   
PPP (D)/NRDC    9/17 - 9/19    2,890 LV     50     44     6     Obama +6   
Purple Strategies    9/15 - 9/19    600 LV     48     44     8     Obama +4   
FOX    9/16 - 9/18    1,009 LV     49     42     7     Obama +7   
Ohio Newspaper Organization/University of Cincinnati    9/13 - 9/18    861 LV     51     46     2     Obama +5

Composite: President Obama 49.1 Willard 43.0

GOTV events. And check with your state Democratic Party office to find volunteer opportunities.

Share two sites that will help voters in your state: Gotta Register will generate a voter registration form for your state. Gotta Vote explains how to register and what to bring when voting in your state. Voters can also download a convenient checklist with all of that info.
Cenk says

There's another poll out today showing President Obama with a nine point lead in Ohio. That's the fifth poll in a row showing him with a larger than a five point lead. The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll that came out last week had him with a ten point lead.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Plus, whoever has won Ohio has won the last 11 presidential races. Ten point leads aren't small, they're gigantic.

Here's my new favorite fact: whoever is leading two weeks after the last convention has never relinquished the lead in the last 15 presidential elections. It's way past two weeks since the last convention and President Obama doesn't have a small lead, he has a huge lead.

Ezra speaks to what rmoney really needs
Behind in the polls and facing mounting panic among his donors, Mitt Romney is readying  his secret weapon for the debates: Zingers.
“Mr. Romney’s team has concluded that debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since August,” reports the New York Times.
Pro tip: If your strategy to turn the presidential election around relies on Romney’s sense of comic timing, you might want to prepare a Plan B, as well.

Willard and his team are desperate.

President Obama's approach to the debates

Ahead of the first presidential debate this Wednesday, the Obama campaign has rejected the idea that the president will be hurling any "zingers" at opponent Mitt Romney.

"We also saw in reports that Mitt Romney and his team have been working on zingers and special lines for months," said Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki, according to pool reports. "That's not what the President's focus is on. So if you're expecting that, that's probably not what he's going to deliver on. As I said, he's speaking directly to the American people and we know what they want to hear is what his plan is for moving the country forward, and that's what we're hoping he can deliver on, on Wednesday."

Slate has more thoughts on the debate

Willard has an uphill battle say GOP pollsters

WASHINGTON -- The tone on a conference call with Republican pollsters Monday, discussing Mitt Romney's chances of winning over key swing voters, was rather gloomy
.

President Obama up by 18 among women

Some nice analysis by teacherken on new polling He discusses the impact of third party candidates on the race, the rv vs lv margins, the 57% who think the economy is moving in the right direction, and how Virginia is going our direction and starting to get away from willard, just as Ohio is basically out of willard's reach (so long as we do our blocking and tackling (ie register voters, make calls, donate, talk to people about POTUS and our Dem candidates, ).

the poll teacherken analyzes for us

President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 3 points amongst likely voters nationally, 49 percent to Romney's 46 percent, in a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.

"For Obama, he’s ahead at a time of growing optimism about the economy and nation’s direction," NBC's FirstRead blog wrote. "For Romney, it’s a 'margin of error' contest that comes as interest in the upcoming election lags among key Democratic constituencies versus four years ago." There is evidence in the poll that Americans are feeling better about the economy -- 57 percent of registered voters said the nation is recovering while 39 percent said it was not.

some unsolicited bad advice from wingnuts for willard - go further right

new NC poll - among early voters, we lead by 20 - 2 pt lead among lv

There’s a new poll out tonight of North Carolina from SurveyUSA. The topline shows President Obama with a 2 point lead over Mitt Romney, which is near where most recent polls have been. But among those voters who plan to cast early ballots, Obama has a 20 point lead.
more info about that NC poll
As in 2008, Democrats hold a sizable edge among early voters, but the GOP is making a concerted effort not to fall too far behind before Election Day. Conservative groups have pushed for absentee votes and plan get-out-the-vote efforts once early voting starts in a couple of weeks.

According to the poll, Obama has a 20-point lead among people who plan to cast early ballots. They accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed. Romney holds a 53 to 41 percent lead among those planning to vote on Election Day – 48 percent of those surveyed – and a 58 to 39 percent lead among the small number of people who will cast absentee ballots.

New Hampshire poll- POTUS at 51 leads by 7.5
******************
Nate Silver gives us his analysis

He sees President Obama with an 85.7 % probability of victory if the election were held today. Florida is still lean Obama but quite close to becoming likely Obama at 70%.
Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado are all likely Obama with President Obama holding a 75% or higher probability of winning.

8:19 PM PT:
Link to Transcripts and Documents.

Goal Thermometer
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Buy Obama/Biden gear at the Obama 2012 Store.

Originally posted to Vote4Obamain2012 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 05:43 PM PDT.

Also republished by ObamaNightlyNews.

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