Early voting is in full swing now. Ohio started in-person voting yesterday and more than 15,000 people showed up to vote. The majority of them were in left-leaning Franklin County, where college students actually camped out over night to be the first to vote.
Of the 15,942 people who voted in Ohio yesterday [and those votes were reported], 10,311 were in Franklin County. That is 65% [of the reported votes]. In 2008, Franklin county made up about 10% of the electorate in Ohio. According to Dr. McDonald, 1.8% of Franklin county eligible voters had already voted by the time polls closed last night.
I still only have voting demographics on three states: IA, NC and ME. ME has only received a handful of votes, so I am not doing anything with it, yet.
I hope that next week the polling will give us information on who is early voting in OH and elsewhere.
Estimates are made using the early voting statistics gathered by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University and combining it with most recent polling in the state.
Total number of early ballots received: 114,581, an increase of ~46,000 since yesterday.
CALIFORNIA reports 512 ballots cast as of Tuesday evening (only 11 counties reporting, excludes LA and other large counties)
IOWA reports 69,420 ballots cast as of Wednesday morning.
MAINE reports 48 returned ballots as of Monday morning.
NORTH CAROLINA reports 19,721 returned ballots as of Wednesday morning (with 6 non-reporting counties).
OHIO 46 counties report 15,942 returned ballots as of Tuesday evening.
SOUTH CAROLINA reports 1,753 returned ballots as of Thursday afternoon.
SOUTH DAKOTA reports 7,185 returned ballots as of Wednesday morning.
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North Carolina
Still using the ARG poll. Absentee ballots from NC are still coming primarily from older Republican voters (52.6% Republican, 61.7% age 60+). There are still 6 counties in NC not reporting.
Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date
GOP |
DEM |
IND/OTH |
52.6% |
28.8% |
18.6% |
Candidate |
Estimated votes |
Estimated % |
Obama |
6,784 |
34.4% |
Romney |
12,121 |
61.5% |
Iowa
As of this morning, Iowans have returned 69,420 ballots. This is ~25,000 more since yesterday. So far, these ballots have been heavily Democratic. Still using the WeAskAmerica poll.
Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date
GOP |
DEM |
IND/OTH |
19.3% |
63.1% |
17.6% |
Candidate |
Estimated votes |
Estimated % |
Obama |
46,502 |
66.9% |
Romney |
18,508 |
26.7% |
Comparing total votes for NC and IA, the popular vote has Obama up 60-34. This isn't really indicative of anything, but it is still fun to look at.
For more information on methodology, please see my original diary here. The raw math is here.