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First, from Nate Silver, as of right now

percentage likelihood for Obama

NH 88
NV 86
OH 85

take those off the table and even if Romney were to run the table, the result would be

Obama    275
Romney   263

But note of the remaining states

CO  74
Fl    68
IA   75
NC  37
VA  78

Then from the more conservative Real Clear Politics

They now have Obama with 269 EVs
and Romney with 181
with the following states as tossups:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)

You will note that they now list MO as a tossup

regardless of what you may hear from one or two polls in the past few days, the overall picture has not changed

it is almost impossible to see a path to 270 for Romney, barring something outside his control.

In NC, where the Obama campaign is registering even more new voters than last cycle (and these do not make it through a likely voter screen) and where the percentage of Hispanic vote has increased, the polls probably understate how well Obama is likely to do.

Also remember that most polls only match Obama v Romney, and ignore Gary Johnson (who will take more than 1% nationally, maybe 2%, mainly from Romney's hide), Jill Stein (who will take some from Obama, although i would bet most of her national support comes from states where it makes no difference, like CA) and Virgil Goode (who still has the possibility of taking 1%+ in Virginia).

For all the bloviating of various pundits, the current lay of the land is quite bleak for Romney, and his campaign knows it.  Which may mean that he goes for a real game changer tonight, with the possibility of imploding as a result.

Don't worry, only 6 more hours until the debate starts.

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