Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters in a state that looks a lot less like the battleground that many anticipated after Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan joined the Republican ticket in August. The president claimed a commanding lead in Marquette’s previous mid-September poll, 54 percent to 40 percent.This is the first poll of Wisconsin we've had in a week. Last week's Wisconsin polls averaged out to a huge 10 point lead for Obama in the state. PUSA, the Obama Super PAC, is pulling out of Wisconsin because ... well ... its looking like a definite lock for Obama.
Time to move the cheeseheads off the swing state map and into the Obama column.
So where can Romney go? He's about to get run out of Ohio. He's got no reason to stay in Wisconsin except for ground game (which wont overcome a 10-12 point deficit). New Hampshire is starting to look like a wrap too. Give Obama these states and he's at 269. He needs any one state and its over.
I went to CNN's map tool and gave Romney all kinds of stuff without Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. I gave him Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia and Iowa. Give him all that, and he still loses if Obama takes the one state he is currently in, Nevada.
Did I mention that NBC reported in its latest poll that Obama is up 50 points with Latinos?
In the end, even if things go swimmingly for Mitt Romney in all these other states over the next month, he will find himself in the hands of the folks he wants to self deport and Harry Reid's vaunted turnout machine. Poetic that.