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Leading Off:

AZ-Sen: Holy Toledo, Batman! Or should I say Holy Tucson? PPP's new Arizona poll shows Democrat Rich Carmona leading GOP Rep. Jeff Flake 45-43, up from 44-43 Flake a few weeks ago, in a race that's now pointing very strongly toward "tossup." One difficulty in analyzing this contest, though, is that almost all public polling has been conducted by PPP or by Republican pollsters like Rasmussen (blech), so it'd be nice if some other reputable firms also provided some numbers. But if PPP's right, then Carmona's doing an amazing job in separating himself from the top of the ticket, seeing as Obama's losing 53-44 and has a rough 40-57 approval rating. (Remarkably, as Tom Jensen points out, Arizona voters have a favorable view of Romney, 54-42.) The other fact, of course, is that the DSCC is now playing here, which means their internals must look pretty promising as well.

To top things off, Carmona just announced raising an impressive $2.2 million in the third quarter, double his haul from the prior quarter. Flake hasn't announced his totals yet.

3Q Fundraising:

MO-Sen: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): $5.8 mil raised. Whoa!

Senate:

FL-, OH-, VA-Sen: Marist has another trio of swing state polls. Democrats listed first, trendlines in parentheses:

FL: Nelson 51, Mack 41 (51-37); Obama +1 (+5)

OH: Brown 50, Mandel 41 (49-42); Obama +8 (+7)

VA: Kaine 49, Allen 44 (46-46); Obama +2 (+5)

On the Senate front, the big news is obviously out of Virginia, where Tim Kaine has legged out to a five-point lead over George Allen. While some polling has still found the race tight, a number of other surveys have shown similar movement for Kaine (and no public poll has seen any kind of advantage for Allen). On the presidential front, Obama's standing has tightened in both the Old Dominion and down in the Sunshine State, but it doesn't seem to have affected the Senate contests—indeed, in Virginia, Kaine and Obama are moving in different directions.

Suffolk University also has new Florida numbers: Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack 40-34, which is just a deeply weird number of undecideds this close to the election. (Obama's edging Romney 46-43.)

ME-Sen: I don't ask for much when it comes to polls: I want to know the name of the pollster, who paid for it, the field dates, the sample size, and the actual toplines. I mean, I'd always like more, but I'll give the time of day to most any poll which can actually tell me all this—and really, like I say, it's just the basics. So I don't understand outlets which report polls with less information than this, and case in point is this Republican survey leaked to The Fix. It's from a company called GS Strategy Group, on behalf of the NRSC, and it purportedly shows independent Angus King with just a 37-34 lead over Republican Charlie Summers, with Democrat Cynthia Dill at 17. But sample size? Not mentioned. And field dates? Just a vague "last week." C'mon, guys. (For what it's worth, previously unreleased trendlines supposedly had the race at 44-33-11.)

MO-Sen: PPP's out with another Missouri poll, and it's their first with genuinely positive news for Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill. She now leads Todd Akin 46-40, with 9 percent going to Libertarian Jonathan Dine. (Who's Dine? Why, he's the ex-con who once sported a giant "Legalize Marijuana" faux tattoo across his pecs.) Tom Jensen thinks McCaskill's improved standing is due to Democrats finally rallying around her, though respondents say they prefer a GOP-held Senate by a 50-42 margin, so that could snap back. Meanwhile, Rasmussen also has McCaskill up six, but since they didn't include Dine, the spread is 51-45.

Meanwhile, he "Todd Akin idiotic comment of the day" is actually a blast from the (relatively recent) past, delivered in a 2008 speech on the House floor:

"You find that along with the culture of death go all kinds of other law-breaking: Not following good sanitary procedure, giving abortions to women who are not actually pregnant, cheating on taxes, all these kinds of things," Akin said in the speech, as captured on C-SPAN.
And of course, Akin's standing behind his remarks:
"There's ample evidence that abortion doctors on any number of occasions have deceived women into thinking that they're pregnant, and then collect money for a procedure that they don't perform," said Rick Tyler, a spokesperson for Akin's campaign. "And I say they don't perform it because obviously the women weren't pregnant."
Amazingly, Tyler cited an article in the Chicago Sun-Times... from 1978! So awesome.

MT-Sen: Montana GOP = morans. Click through—a picture's worth $787 billion in this case.

OH-Sen: What is it about trackers that, from time to time, makes candidates lose their self-control and just spazz? The latest incident involves Republican Josh Mandel—and because it's Mandel, he's also lying about it, too. As the Columbus Dispatch's headline puts it: "Mandel's account of confrontation differs from evidence." Here's reality:

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel said a political video tracker "made the initial physical contact with me" in an incident that occurred Friday in a public elevator, offering an explanation that is not supported by eyewitness accounts nor the video of the incident and is a twist from the original statement put out by the Mandel campaign. [...]

The video of the incident shows, as The Dispatch previously reported, the tracker following Mandel into the elevator. But it also shows Mandel approach the tracker, say his name loudly, step to the side of him, and then the camera shakes. The tracker, whose name is Tyler Hansen, said "please don't," and Mandel relented, asking the tracker "how you been" and quipping "good to see you." He also asked the tracker if he knew the Dispatch reporter who was in the elevator.

After Mandel and the Dispatch reporter got off the elevator, an unidentified woman who was also on the elevator can be heard on the video remarking to the tracker that she saw Mandel come "right over there to block" the camera. The woman can also be heard saying "(when) he walked in he scared me to death."

I love that Mandel is such a lying liar that he lies even when he knows there's contradictory video. He'd make a wonderful apparatchik in the Ministry of Truth.

WI-Sen: Marquette's last Senate poll, which had Democrat Tammy Baldwin up an eye-popping nine points, seemed like an outlier, so it's no surprise to see that their latest numbers have fallen in line with what we're seeing from other reputable pollsters. They now have Baldwin beating Tommy Thompson 48-44, though Barack Obama is still crushing in the presidential race, 53-42. Meanwhile, things hardly look set to get much better for Tommy: Majority PAC is out with a new ad blistering the crusty former governor with his instantly-infamous new quote. "Who better than me," asks Thompson rhetorically, "to do away with Medicaid and Medicare." Ouch-and-a-half.

Ads:

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon (R)
ND-Sen: DSCC (D)
NJ-Sen: Bob Menendez (D)
NV-Sen: SEIU (D)
NV-Sen: NRSC (R)
WI-Sen: NRSC (R)

Gubernatorial:

NC-Gov: Just another brick in the wall: SurveyUSA joins the sizable gang of pollsters who've found recent double-digit leads for Republican Pat McCrory, showing him up 51-39 over Democrat Walter Dalton.

House:

CO-03: The DCCC leaked four new internals to Politico on Wednesday, some of which cover races where we haven't seen much if any polling before. First up is Colorado's 3rd District (courtesy Grove Insight), where GOP freshman Scott Tipton barely edges Democrat Sal Pace, 42-39. Given how swingish this seat is (it went for McCain 50-48), it should be a real dogfight over those remaining undecided voters. Unfortunately, we don't have presidential toplines—indeed, the memo is awfully threadbare. The only additional information comes in the form of Tipton's job approvals, which stand at a negative 37-46.

FL-02: It looks like the D-Trip has succeeded in putting a very unlikely race on the map: Following the DCCC's smallish ($61K) television buy on behalf of Al Lawson, the NRCC is jumping in with $160K worth of advertising to help shore up freshman Rep. Steve Southerland. Democrats just threw on another $46K, but if Republicans ultimately out-spend Team Blue here, then that's a victory in its own right. (Though I'm sure Lawson wouldn't enjoy hearing that.)

FL-10: A second under-polled race is Florida's 10th, where Democrat Val Demings is hoping to unseat another GOP freshman, Daniel Webster. The D-Trip's survey (from Global Strategy Group) paints an unexpectedly close—though still challenging—picture for a race we have pegged at Likely R, with Webster up 46-41. Here we do have presidential numbers: Obama and Romney are tied at 47, which indicates a better environment for Democrats than in 2008, when McCain won 52-47. Of course, that 47% could be Obama's ceiling here, but in unambiguously positive news, Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack 48-40 in the Senate contest.

MI-01: One House race that's been extensively surveyed is MI-01, and the polling has been just about uniformly optimistic for Democratic challenger Gary McDowell. The DCCC's latest (from Benenson) is, of course, no different: McDowell leads GOP freshman Dan Benishek 43-40, with Libertarian Emily Salvette taking 7 and Green Party candidate Ellis Boal at 2. The generic congressional ballot is actually 45-44 Republican here, which suggests that these third-party Some Dudes are hurting the GOP more than the Dems. On the presidential front, it's all tied at 48—very similar to Obama's two-point edge here four years ago.

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell, the first (and so far only) incumbent Democrat left to fend for himself by the DCCC, is out with a new poll trying to show that he still has a shot... but the trendlines really are not good. Kissell's survey (from his usual pollster, Anzalone Liszt) has him edging GOPer Richard Hudson 40-39, but that's down from 43-39 in August and 46-36 back in March. Given how red this district is, it's pretty safe to say that these undecided voters lean right.

NH-01: Pushing back against a long string of polls showing the race a tossup (as well as disputed claims that they're letting their incumbent twist), the NRCC leaked some toplines from a Public Opinion Strategies poll showing Rep. Frank Guinta up 51-43 over Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Before you get worried, the presidential numbers should give you some pause: Romney leads Obama 47-46, even though the president won by seven points in 2008, and even though all recent public polling excluding Rasmussen has found Obama winning in New Hampshire. Yes, the state's 2nd Congressional District is actually a bit bluer, but it seems very unlikely that the POTUS's statewide lead comes entirely from NH-02.

NV-03: The last of the DCCC's internals comes out of NV-03, where the only prior numbers came from a problematic SurveyUSA poll that put GOP freshman Joe Heck up 53-40 over Democrat John Oceguera. Global Strategy Group sees a very different picture, with Heck leading by just a 42-38 spread. I'm not exactly sure what to make of the trendlines, though: A previously unreleased August poll had Heck leading 46-37, which means that on the one hand, the incumbent's standing dropped but on the other, his challenger's barely budged. As for the rest of the memo, the generic congressional ballot is +3 Dem (obviously a good thing), but the presidential race is terribly pessimistic. Even though Obama won this district by nine points in 2008, he leads just 47-46 now. Obama's much weaker standing in Nevada this time around (due at least in part to the still-awful housing picture in the state) is going to make it a lot harder for Oceguera to pull off the upset.

PA-06, LA-03: In the pantheon of outside money groups, there's the strange phenomena of organizations which insist on spending money to help incumbents who are a lock for re-election. I understand why they do it (they want to keep these guys in their pockets), but for a horserace guy like me, it all seems so pointless. Nevertheless, the American Hospital Association is spending almost a million bucks on five different Republicans, only two of whom are in potentially competitive races. One is the all-GOP incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup in LA-03, where the AHA is supporting Charles Boustany against Jeff Landry. The other is PA-06, where GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach faces Democrat Manan Trivedi, who, interestingly, is a physician. The AHA's interests, though, tend to be pretty conservative, except when they're eating at the Medicare trough.

Reshuffling Roundup: Because the word "triage" is so loaded—and so often misapplied—we're going to start consolidating all reports about shifting television airtime reservations for House races under the heading of our new "Reshuffling Roundup" each day. As I've noted repeatedly, even if one group cancels ads in one competitive seat, another similarly-aligned organization might step up, so it's important to be careful with any notion of triage. In any event, here's what we learned on Wednesday:

AZ-02, FL-26, NM-01: Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz reports that the DCCC is feeling so good about its chances in three seats that it's cancelled a week's worth of ads (starting Oct. 18) in AZ-02 ($85K), NM-01 ($135K), and FL-26 ($280K). However, it's worth noting that House Majority PAC just went up in AZ-02. On the flipside, the FL-26 news fits in with reports that the GOP is giving up on Rep. David Rivera.

FL-18: The DCCC is once again curtailing its ad buys in FL-18, to the tune of $96K, for the week of Oct. 16. (The previously cut the prior week as well.) However, as Roll Call's Joshua Miller notes, House Majority PAC has lately upped its investment here from $1 mil to $1.5 mil. The picture is fairly complicated, because HMP's Oct. 16 reservation hasn't increased, but SEIU's also involved, and Miller says that "Democratic groups are scheduled to be outspending Republican groups over the course of that week."

MN-01: Meanwhile, the D-Trip has also cut back $260K worth of airtime in MN-01, where Dem Rep. Tim Walz looks increasingly safe. I'm wondering if this cancellation is what convinced The Hotline that the DCCC was actually scaling back its buys in MN-08, since there's good reason to believe this reservation was made in the Twin Cities. The 1st and 8th may be at opposite ends of the state, but the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market actually covers most of Minnesota.

NJ-03: The NRCC seems pretty confident that freshman Rep. Jon Runyan is safe, since they're reportedly ditching $780K worth of airtime in the expensive Philadelphia market, for the period of Oct. 5-18. Toeplitz notes that the NRCC still has time reserved for the final two weeks of the election, which could be used to help either Runyan or PA-08's Mike Fitzpatrick.

OH-07: The DCCC is cancelling a $240K buy in Cleveland for Oct. 18-22, where Democrat Joyce Healy-Abrams is trying to unseat GOP freshman Bob Gibbs.

PA-12: The NRCC isn't giving up its hopes of knocking off Dem Rep. Mark Critz: They've added $200K in Critz's home base of Johnstown-Altoona. Also worth noting: Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform is jumping in with a $495K expenditure on behalf of Republican Keith Rothfus.

UT-04: It's been a while since we've seen Democratic money come in to help Rep. Jim Matheson—in fact, the DCCC hasn't spent a dime here, relying instead on HMP and Center Forward. But Harry Reid's Patriot Majority USA is now stepping in with a $170K buy backing two new ads, so perhaps Matheson still has a chance.

Ads:

CA-24: House Majority PAC (D)
CA-24: Abel Maldonado (R)
CA-36: DCCC (D)
CA-47: Chamber of Commerce (R)
CA-52: Scott Peters (D)
CO-03: Scott Tipton (R)
CO-07: Ed Perlmutter (D)
FL-22: Adam Hasner (R)
IN-08: Dave Crooks (D)
IN-08: Larry Bucshon (R)
KY-06: Andy Barr (R)
MI-01: Gary McDowell (D)
MI-03: Steve Pestka (D)
MN-06: Jim Graves  (D)
MN-06: Michele Bachmann (R)
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D)
ND-AL: Pam Gulleson (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)
NV-03: Joe Heck (R)
NY-21: Matt Doheny (R)
NY-21: Matt Doheny (R)
NY-24: Ann Marie Buerkle (R)
NY-25: Maggie Brooks (R)
PA-12: Mark Critz (D)
TX-23: Pete Gallego (D) (Spanish version of this ad)
WI-07: DCCC (D)

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen (PDF): After conducting an extensive round of House race polling in New York, Siena's turned its attention to the state Senate. They're out with two new polls of open seats: the Westchester-based 37th District (where Democrat Suzi Oppenheimer is retiring) and the Rochester-area 55th District (where Republican James Alesi chose not to seek re-election after voting in favor of gay marriage last year).

In SD-37, Democratic Assemblyman George Latimer leads 2010 GOP nominee Bob Cohen 44-41, with 15% undecided. That's actually pretty good news for Latimer, seeing as Cohen lost two years ago by less than 1% after a protracted recount. What's more, Obama isn't faring especially well in this suburban seat, trailing 48-47, and Republicans also lead on the question of which party respondents would like to see control the Senate, 46-45, so Latimer is out-performing the rest of his party. Democrats also have a sizable 40%-29% voter registration advantage over Republicans here, which gives Latimer a nice cushion.

Meanwhile, things don't look quite so bright in SD-55. There, GOP Assemblyman Sean Hanna is beating Democrat Ted O'Brien (a Monroe County legislator) by a 47-39 margin. Obama's actually stomping Romney here, 53-39, so you'd think that should really boost O'Brien, but "control of the Senate" is tied at 45. This sort of ticket-splitting is a phenomenon found around the state, perhaps because Senate Republicans have always been forced into bipartisan compromise due to unshakable Democratic control of the Assembly, meaning that they haven't scared New Yorkers as much as national Republicans have. Democrats also have an enrollment edge here, too, albeit a smaller one than in the 37th, at 38%-32%. But let's not forget, though, that the Senate GOP had a free hand to draw the new map this year, and they know how to pick their voters.

Ads:

ME Ballot: Mainers United for Marriage is out with another ad, featuring a heterosexual couple married for 42 years. They say they just want their oldest daughter, who is gay, to be able to "get married at home."

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Damn it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens

    Roll Call has annoying news about AZ-02 with a GOP poll on McSally showing her tied... Seems like an attempt to force s to spend still in Tucson - I wonder whether one of our PACs will take the bait. McSally seems like a strong candidate, but there is no path for victory here even though Barber won't win huge.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:10:34 AM PDT

  •  IL-13: Gill goes anti-NAFTA in latest ad (4+ / 0-)

    I'll tell you this...I live outside IL-13 but in the Champaign-Springfield media market, and every other ad on local TV stations are either pro-Gill/anti-Davis or pro-Davis/anti-Gill. There are times when I just want to throw my TV through the wall, trust me.

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:26:24 AM PDT

  •  ND-AL: The NRA endorsed Gulleson. (8+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:26:56 AM PDT

  •  Hell Yes Richard Carmona! (6+ / 0-)

    Lover, fighter, dreamer

    by kate mckinnon on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:35:37 AM PDT

  •  Larry Kissell (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Christopher Walker

    I gave that man 900 bucks in 2008 !
    I don't care if he looses!
    If he does loose I'll write him a letter !

    •  if he does get gerrymandered out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      I hope he'll take whatever time he needs to lick his wounds and recuperate.

      But then I think he might be able to help flip back one of the two chambers of the North Carolina state legislature, which the Blue team controlled until the bloodbath of 2010.

      His long suit in the 2006/2008 cycles was the effect of bad economic policy on jobs and kitchen table issues in his district. There's scope for those concerns at the state level, too.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:43:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Initial claims 367k (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone, itskevin, askew

    Up from a revised 363k. Not bad. Makes me feel a little better. At least until tomorrow.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:46:00 AM PDT

  •  Warren, Berkley, Carmona, Donnelly (4+ / 0-)

    Those are the pickups that we need in order to maintain 53 seats in the U.S. Senate. Kerrey's almost certain to lose, King would only count as a D pickup if he caucuses with the Democrats, Baldwin and Heitkamp would succeed retiring D incumbents Kohl and Conrad, respectively, and we need to hold every other seat we have that's in play.

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:48:19 AM PDT

  •  Anyone who was referencing CNN's snap poll: (6+ / 0-)

    100% white, over 50's, southern, mostly male.  Yeah, I'm sure Obama had a shot at winning CNN's snap poll.  

    •  Sigh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007

      I didn't need a poll to tell me how it went.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:55:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Link, please? NT (0+ / 0-)

      31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

      by borodino21 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:00:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's the link: (4+ / 0-)

        http://i2.cdn.turner.com/...

        Page 15 is where you'll find the stat bar for 100% south
        only moderates and conservatives, no liberals.  All 50+, no under 50's.  All white, no non-white.

        •  No this is a misunderstanding (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, condorcet, Woody, KingofSpades

          N/A does not mean NO members of this category, it simply means that the sub-sample size is too small for them to make any reasonable projections, as the Margin of Error gets too ridiculously large. If it was all-white and all over-50 then the margin of error reported for these groups would be the same as for the sample as a whole, and it isn't. The over-50s are around 75%, whites at least 82% and possibly over 90%, but not 100%.

          These are too large, yeah, but let's not exaggerate. And the regional thing is just wrong - the south is the largest region and should be around 30% of the total, which on my calculation it roughly is for this sample. The other regions are going to be too small sub-samples to get counted.

          Do your own calculations if you want to check.

    •  I'm not sure this is right & want to know more... (3+ / 0-)

      ...about the snap poll.

      I've seen this problem in CNN crosstabs before, where they say "NA" for one subsample or another, often nonwhites but sometimes another demographic here or there.

      It suggests the subsample was too small to be statistically valid.

      But I recall they have done national polls where that seemingly can't be right, where the nonwhite vote or some other group would have to be big enough in any valid poll.

      It made me think it wasn't a statistically illegitimate subsample, but something else going on that was left unexplained that caused them to say "NA."

      Now, in this snap poll on the debate, it's very unclear to me what all the "NA" figures mean, there are a bunch of them.  Somehow it doesn't seem plausible they're actually saying their sample is all over-50 Southerners.

      I need to read/hear a more complete explanation before I buy that.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:12:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That would sound more realistic, but (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades

        that means it was skewed toward white, southern, etc. etc.   instead of exclusively.  Still feeds their 'comeback' meme.  

        •  We KNOW it's not exclusively white Southerners... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, askew, KingofSpades

          ...over 50 based on the margins of error.

          If it was exclusively white Southerners over 50, then the margins of error would be the same for the total sample and whites and the total sample and Southerners, and the total sample and voters over 50.

          But they're not the same.

          The MoE for whites is a little bit higher than the total. 5% vs. 4.5%.

          The MoE for over 50 is a little bit higher than the total, 5.5% vs. 4.5%.

          And the MoE for Southerners is a lot higher than the total, 8.5% vs. 4.5%.

          The regional crosstab shows that Southerners couldn't have been remotely close to the entire sample.  But each of the three other categories obviously was too small alone to report.

          I didn't study the MoEs in typing my last comment, now having done so it's clear they reveal a major demographic skew.  Indeed, the skew is so bad that I'm surprised the poll isn't even more favorable to Romney than it is.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:31:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It wasn't 100% white (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, MBishop1

      The MoE for the white sub-sample is slightly larger than for the sample as a whole, therefore it is clearly not white-only. However, whites are oversampled as on my calculation they are at least 82% of the sample and could be over 90% (compared with 74% at the last election, probably fewer this time). More extreme is the situation with age - looks like around 75% of the sample is over-50, compared with 43% at the last election, so yes that is really way out of whack and totally unrepresentative of the population as a whole.

      The regional thing is a nothingburger - the south is the largest region anyway. For the last Daily Kos/SEIU poll  it was 31%, around the same as on this sample by my calculation. With the small overall sample size the other regions would be too small to create meaningful sub-samples.

      •  Anyway, this poll actually isn't that bad (11+ / 0-)

        The only pre-debate/post-debate comparison point is on favorability, and here Romney has the stunning net gain of ONE POINT (he goes from +12 to +14 while Obama goes from -1 to 0). So while the sample thought by a large majority that Romney won the debate, it doesn't actually seem to have had any significant impact on their opinions of the two men.

        Forget all the stuff about Romney being ahead on issues - there is no pre-poll comparison for these and with this too old and too white sample you can be sure that Romney was well ahead before the debate too. In case there's any doubt of that, we have the information that his favorability was +12 BEFORE the debate with this group. That really tells us all we need to know.

    •  For real? (0+ / 0-)

      Are those demographics on record?

    •  Wha? Really? (0+ / 0-)

      100% white?

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:45:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I feel like I did after the first day (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27, DCCyclone, LordMike

    of oral arguments on the healthcare cases. Ugh.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:54:08 AM PDT

    •  think about it then.... (12+ / 0-)

      1.  There will be no Obama lines in attack ads from last night.

      2.  Obama will not be called an angry black man.

      3.  Romney will be quoted in several attack ads by this weekend.

      4.  it sucks to play prevent defense, but when you are up by 4 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go in the game, you can remain focused.

      both teams executed their game plan last night.  I would rather be in the democrats shoes.

      Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

      by jalapeno on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:59:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If that was our game, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        then we need a new coach. The President was doing his best imitation of Jan Brewer. I almost expected to hear "we have did" in his closing.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:02:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Brewer won too (5+ / 0-)

          Great examples here! :)

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:12:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  watch the talking heads..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          not 1 attack ad will come out of the debate.

          remember the "leaked" video the night before the debate?  Obama engages in the debate and he is tagged as an angry black man.  He goes Presidential instead.

          Tough to swallow, but everything was planned that way.  Look at the spin room.  The high energy democrats were not in the room.  Martin O'Malley?  Are you serious?  It tells you that this was all planned and they left very quickly.  

          Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

          by jalapeno on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:26:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  What keeps me energized and calm is doing (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EcosseNJ, askew, KingofSpades, MBishop1

      phone banking and GOTV and spending time with OFA people in my community.

      Another thing that helps is looking at the electoral map and playing with the map.

      There are many paths to victory for the President and not so much for Mittens.

      I played with the math and I was delighted to see that if Obama keeps the Kerry states plus say OH, NM, NV..and he loses FL, VA, NC, IA,  CO, NH, he still wins.

      That is just one example as I am more confident about NH than some. I think that goes in the Obama column.
      I remember how close NH seemed for Kerry and he won it. I think the last time NH went red was for Bush first term.

      It is amazing how many states the President can lose and probably will not lose them and still win the election.

      I am one who is just fine with no landslide and Obama winning by just enough. Look at Bush who nearly lost for a second term and declared he had a mandate.

      I never thought his election would be easy and never, ever believe it would be a landslide. I always believed it would be rather close but not a tossup like the media will no doubt predict within the week.

      Polls may tighten but that might not last.  

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:05:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is positive spin on that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, bythesea, askew

      Given the result.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:08:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And you remember how that turned out in the end (8+ / 0-)

      Just remember that, one fumble is just one fumble, it's not the ballgame.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:13:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The difference is (0+ / 0-)

        that the White House misjudged its audience then--almost reasonably. The similarity is that that was the day it became obvious that what should have been an easy win was possibly going to be a loss. An with respect to Medicaid, don't forget, it was a loss.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:17:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No one thought we fumbled Medicaid (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, askew, KingofSpades, MBishop1

          I don't recall any criticism of our oral argument on the Medicaid issue.

          All the criticism I recall was on the broader law and particularly the individual mandate.

          The Medicaid loss was a surprise in light of everything else being upheld.

          And really the similarity is you don't know really how the "judges," i.e., voters, will rule now based on one bad night the same as you don't really know how SCOTUS will rule on something based on a bad oral argument.

          Really, the briefs and the innate merits matter more than oral argument, and oral argument matters very little or not at all.

          Similarly, the repetitive campaign arguments and their merits in the eyes of the voters matter more than one debate, which might end up mattering very little or not at all.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:25:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Precisely !!! He has to really lose a lot of (0+ / 0-)

        states..he has to completely collapse in polling and not national polls but complely collapse in OH, WI, NV, and so on.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:19:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's also the House and Senate (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Square Knot

          to think about. We of all people should know that.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:20:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But so what? (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bythesea, bjssp, itskevin, Woody, askew, wishingwell

            I think it's extreme hyperbole to think we're going to have a downballot slide based on one bad Presidential debate in what has been a long campaign where Obama has weathered so much already.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:26:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Downballot (0+ / 0-)

              The issue driving the polls since the Convention is Medicare/Vouchercare, Medicaid (paying for grandma in the rest home, as Bill Clinton explained), and protecting Social Security. The debate didn't change any of that.

              I wish Obama and his spokespeople would shut up about cutting the deficit and all that Repub talking point shit. He may remind voters that you can't make much of a dent in the budget by cutting Big Bird -- he'll have to cut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Obama seems to yearn to do that because he mistakenly thinks it's needed, but electorally, it is a sure loser.

              If House and Senate candidates keep standing up to protect Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security -- without getting misty-eyed about Bowles Simpson and Grand Bargains to slash entitlements -- they will do fine.

              •  I liked Baldwin's answer to those much better (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Woody, wishingwell

                She actually had a zinger for that question- "It's not a program, it's a promise". I was really looking for Obama to say something like that.

                Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                by fearlessfred14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:58:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Also (0+ / 0-)

        Andrew Sullivan's over the top whining about it all (no offense to him, but I think he was being hyperbolic) reminded me of Toobin calling the S-G's arguments a "plane wreck".

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:48:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  People may not like this (0+ / 0-)

    but the President was a complete no-show last night.  
    It's not just that Romney won the debate, but even worse, that Obama didn't even bother to try.  It's kind of how I feel about large parts of his job in office.

    At this point I think Romney may well win the popular vote, possibly with Obama winning Ohio/Wisconsin/Nevada and possibly New Hampshire to win the EC.

    WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

    by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:06:42 AM PDT

    •  Really you think Mitt will win the popular vote? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, askew

      You really think he came off as completely likeable, trustworthy and he can now erase the 47 pct comments and all the other things he has said and done? Do you really think people will like him that much ?  

      He would have to sweep the popular vote in some states to counteract the popular vote Obama will get in NY and CA and VT and CT and MA and deep blue states. I think NY and CA will keep Romney from winning the popular vote.

      I think Obama will win New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire. I have always thought he was most vulnerable in FL, VA, NC.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:14:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just me personally (5+ / 2-)

        If not for cultural issues and the Supreme Court, I would be (even before the debate) be voting enthusiastically for Mitt Romney.  I like Romney personally more than Obama and I think he would do a better job overall than the poor one that Obama has done.
        But as I said before, I refuse to throw my sisters (one who is a lesbian) and my girlfriend under the bus.

        WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

        by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:21:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  well, as far as electoral analysis goes (5+ / 0-)

          most people don't like Romney personally.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:25:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  How is this HRable? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, AUBoy2007, Woody

          The commenter, an independent, clearly explains his reasons why he thinks Romney won, but also why he will be voting for Obama.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:08:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The HR is wrong (0+ / 0-)

            HR is for specific violation, not because a comment provokes you to have a pissy fit.

            So I have uprated the comment.

          •  I agree, while I did not like him saying he likes (0+ / 0-)

            Mitt personally more than Obama...that arrogant bully Mitt, how could anyone like that asshole is beyond me...it is not HR able as he said he is voting for Obama.

            He does not appear to be a troll, just not a strong Obama supporter.

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:01:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  My view (0+ / 0-)

              I see Romney as a pragmatic guy who looks to find solutions.  I don't think the guy has any real ideology or core, when he needs to move to center to survive (like in Massachusetts) he will, when he needs to move to the far right to survive, he will.  He may be a bully, but so are most politicians.  My best guess is that when it comes to day-to-day administration of government, he will do a better job than President Obama.

              That said, right now the push on Romney is from the far right, NOT the center.  What that means is that Romney will have to throw bones to the extreme right, especially on cultural issues, which is completely anathema to me.

              I'm not going to fully explain my views on President Obama, I don't want to inflame people here.  But I will say that I consider voting for him similar to taking some really yucky tasting medicine with some nasty side effects, but I choose to take that medicine despite the taste and side effects because it will probably make me healthy in the long run.

              WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

              by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:58:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  HR abuse (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fearlessfred14, Woody

          Every one has their own reason to work for success of Obama. No need for ideological purity. HR abuse so uprated.

    •  Nah (6+ / 0-)

      I really don't see a split like that.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:14:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I will be happy with any win, I never thought (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      it would be a landslide as some believed. I also did not think it would be a tossup which I doubt it will be.

      I would be delighted with any win, however it goes...mess around with the Electoral map. It is a good way to feel optimistic again.

      The President has to lose a ton of states he won before to lose.  

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:16:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually in the long run, maybe this debate and if (0+ / 0-)

      polls tighten a little, Obama supporters will not just think the President has this won and their vote won;t matter.  Maybe it will motivate more people to volunteer and do more GOTV and show up at the polls and bring their neighbors and friends.

      I know I am making lemonade out of lemons but I have seen this before in my nearly 4 decades of GOTV for Democrats.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:22:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Jobs Report Tomorrow Is Critical.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, LordMike

      Put last night back-to-back with 30,000 new jobs and President-elect Romney is likely 32 days away.

    •  Whatever, we'll accept your vote and... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NMLib, askew

      ...dismiss the rest of your thoughts.  Yours is not a majority sentiment either here or in the country as a whole.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:00:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Q-Pac CT-SEN: McMahon 48 Murphy 47 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew
  •  The sky is falling! The sky is falling! (5+ / 0-)

    And the morning live digest is up

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:29:29 AM PDT

  •  NY-25 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    General Goose

    What the hell is this?

    Does this even qualify as an "ad"?

    •  More info please (0+ / 0-)

      Neither your comment nor the clip you posted meet the basic journalism formula: Who, where, what, when ... and sometimes how or why.

      •  Apologies (0+ / 0-)

        Well, you might notice that this video is linked (conveniently under the text "NY-25") in the diary on which this comment was posted.  By putting "NY-25" in my subject line, I thought I was usefully signalling that my comment was relevant to people who had noticed that link.

        I apologize for the confusion.

        •  A most sincere apology indeed (0+ / 0-)

          You are a lazy writer, I'm sorry to say.

          There are 400 or so House races (not all being contested), more than 25 in New York State alone. As a reader, it's not my job to remember them all without a helpful clue. It's not my job here to leave a thread to go up to a diary at the top with paragraphs on a dozen or more different races, just to search out a link.

          But you do not respect your readers enuff to add a few words or names to the four digits "NY-25". Cum'on.

          I did click on your video, and watched it. It didn't say who was the speaker or what was the subject.

          So I asked you. You don't even give me the courtesy of an answer.

          Instead you write five lines of smug and self-righteousness snearing, but you STILL do not inform me as to Who or What or ...

          Lazy and rude. Sorry.

          •  Speaking of smug and self-righteous sneering (0+ / 0-)

            Well there's also the fact that the answer as to whose video it was had already been posted by the time I wrote my reply.  I didn't see the point in reiterating what someone else had already written.

            Look, I'm new here, and I'm still getting the hang of how much information one should provide when making comments.  I've noticed comments tend to be very short, so I embedded one of the videos linked in the diary, referenced the race to which it was related, and asked a couple of questions about it.

            I don't want to bore readers who likely have to skim the voluminous comments here at Daily Kos with information they already know.  It's a delicate balancing act.  I am sorry if I didn't provide the customary amount of information, but really I thought I was just asking a question based on information that was already in the diary.  I wasn't providing any new information.

    •  Apparently this is on Maggie Brooks' YouTube (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe they just want to annoy people while they are looking at Slaughter's face.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:43:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-StSen 55 (0+ / 0-)

    I suspect part of the reason Hanna is leading O'Brien is the relentless hammering from a shadowy outside group that no one has been able to identify yet.

    SD 55 campaign: A lesson in bullying

    I only just got my first O'Brien mailer this week, but I've been getting stuff from Hanna and from this outside group for weeks.

  •  Fucking CT (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    They're making me nervous down there with the senate race. WTF, CT?

  •  Obama torpedoes Rich Carmona's AZ camapign. (0+ / 0-)

    His performance last night was just the kind of thing that can swing independents back into the Flake column.  Ouch! I really hope I'm wrong about this, but I don't think so.

  •  get a grip (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe Obama was feeling out what Romney had and is going to pummel him in the next debate in front of a live audience.
    Romney can't study relating to people.
    If the next one goes badly then panic. Anyway I figure by the weekend Rasmussen will have Romney leading still 49-47 Obama.  

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