Nate's run the numbers again and, surprisingly to me, President Obama has reached his all-time high mark in the November 6 forecast, 86.1%. I'm only surprised because it seemed like a mixed day of polling - a national NPR poll of O+7, narrow Obama poll margins in Florida and Virginia, big leads in Wisconsin and Ohio.
The now-cast, which is all based on polls, saw a small bump for Romney. He's up to a whopping 3.1% chance for an election held today.
Two up days on the stock market, which the forecast considers but not the now-cast, may be part of the discrepancy. Also, as Romney runs out of days to change things, the forecast will approach the now-cast.
Where will they meet? I'm still betting on a slight tightening in some polls. I'll guess they meet somewhere around Obama being favored to win about 95% of the time.