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12:17 PM PT: VA-02: Some very tough numbers for Democrats in VA-02: Freshman GOP Rep. Scott Rigell is out with a new internal from Public Opinion Strategies showing him with a commanding 54-32 lead over Democrat Paul Hirschbiel. I'm surprised Hirschbiel's name recognition is so low (he's been on the air), but I'm not surprised to see Rigell over 50. However, no presidential toplines were provided. Note that the DCCC recently cut back its ad buys here, but House Majority PAC stepped in with a $126K expenditure. It'll be worth seeing whether they continue to spend here.

1:00 PM PT: NJ-03: If Stockton College's new poll numbers are accurate, this might help explain why the NRCC just cancelled a huge ad buy on behalf of GOP Rep. Jon Runyan. The freshman Republican leads his challenger, Democrat Shelley Adler, by a 49-39 margin, suggesting he's very close to sealing the deal. If anything, this sample is very optimistic for Democrats, since Obama's leading Romney 49-41—in 2008, he won just 51-48, so that's a much bluer spread.

1:13 PM PT: NY-21: Cue the theme from "Deliverance," because we've got dueling internals—and only one can be right. Dem Rep. Bill Owens is touting a poll from Global Strategy Group that shows him up 50-36 over Republican Matt Doheny, though the presidential numbers seem very optimistic, with Obama leading 51-39. The POTUS won here 52-47 in 2008, so his share isn't implausible, but Romney all the way down at 39... man, I dunno about that. But Doheny's own survey isn't entirely awesome for him, either. He trails Owens 45-40 but doesn't provide presidential toplines, making the two polls harder to compare. Still, I think I'd rather be Owens right now.

1:41 PM PT: MO-Gov: Some good news on the polling front for Dem Gov. Jay Nixon, who has now legged out to a 54-35 lead over Dave Spence in PPP's latest poll (the same one which put Claire McCaskill up six). The governor's race has been remarkably under-polled, but this is the largest advantage Nixon's ever had since PPP's first survey all the way back in January. It's also only the second poll showing him over 50 (SurveyUSA had him at 51 in August). It doesn't seem like the RGA is going to come in and help Spence, though I'd likely want to see some confirmatory polling before we consider changing our "Lean D" rating on this race.

More interesting are the numbers in the LG and AG races. Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who suffered a year of bad press before deciding to seek re-election rather than run for governor, is edging former state Auditor Susan Montee by just a 42-38 margin. That's not exactly where you want to be if you're an incumbent. The attorney general's race isn't actually looking all that competitive, but that's still noteworthy because the sitting AG, Chris Koster, is a Democrat, and he's manhandling Ed Martin 52-34, rather similar to Nixon's numbers. And more globally, you've gotta wonder if Todd Akin's disastrous Senate campaign is acting as a drag on his party elsewhere on the ballot.

1:46 PM PT: And Tommy just continues to run the strangest campaign:

U.S. Senate candidate Tommy Thompson says he held six campaign stops on Monday.

Just don't expect to get answers about them too quickly.

Under criticism that he hasn't been on the campaign trail enough, Thompson told WBAY-TV in Green Bay on Sunday that he had six events slated for the next day. For three days since then, campaign spokeswoman Lisa Boothe would not provide any details about them despite repeated requests.

On Thursday, she listed eight events that Thompson participated in on Monday, though some of them would not traditionally be considered "campaign stops." Thompson attended a Republican Party event in Waukesha, held a visit to Herzing University that was closed to the general public, sat down for four one-on-one interviews with reporters and held two fundraisers.

For a guy who spent the post-primary period resting up, and who's behind in all public polling, this "lay low" strategy is just bizarre.

1:54 PM PT: CT-05: Politico's Jake Sherman says the conservative American Action Network has a new poll from American Viewpoint showing Republican Andrew Roraback leading Democrat Elizabeth Esty 42-35—but he provides no field dates or sample size, leaving us to wonder when it was taken and what the margin of error might be. And here's something odd: The toplines are identical to a Roraback/NRCC poll taken a month ago.

2:06 PM PT: And Majority PAC is also going into Arizona, with a $130K buy targeting Flake. (Note that they're also spending another $150K in NJ-Sen, again on "voter outreach and printing," doubling their total outlay so far.)

3:30 PM PT: Reshuffling Roundup:

AZ-02: Even though—or perhaps because—the DCCC announced just a day earlier that they're pulling out of AZ-02, the NRCC has placed a new $225K one-week broadcast buy on behalf of Martha McSally, starting Friday. McSally also says she has an internal poll from OnMessage showing the race tied at 47 apiece—a stark difference from a recent Ron Barber internal that had him up 54-40. We did note, however, that even though the D-Trip is leaving the playing field, House Majority PAC did move in with a $143K expenditure.

CA-21: Has something gone wrong for Republicans? After Democrats experienced a serious recruiting fail and wound up with the Some Dude-ish John Hernandez (who somehow had negative cash-on-hand in his last fundraising report), the GOP had to feel pretty chuffed about Assemblyman David Valadao's chances in this swingy district. But somehow Hernandez scraped together some dough for a few (low-budget) TV ads, while Valadao, notes Scott Bland, "has only just gone on the air with a TV ad of his own, and his campaign hasn't posted new news to his website since March."

But why mention all this? Because Bland reports that Eric Cantor's YG Action Fund has just jumped in with a $200K TV reservation for the final two weeks of the campaign. I'd also note that while other prognosticators have written this race off, we've steadfastly kept it at "Likely R" for precisely this sort of reason. The 21st is heavily Latino, and in a low-information election, it's easy to imagine many Hispanic voters pulling the lever for the more familiar surname. (Valadao is of Portuguese descent, like several other members of Congress from California's Central Valley, including Jim Costa and Devin Nunes, as well as ex-Rep. Dennis Cardoza.) So let's see if Republicans somehow screw this one up and let Valadao sleepwalk to defeat.

3:43 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:

MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc): $2.3 mil raised, $1.3 mil cash-on-hand

VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D): $4.5 mil raised, $1 mil cash-on-hand; George Allen (R): $3.5 mil raised, $2.6 mil cash-on-hand. Note: Kaine's lower CoH is due to his recent purchase of $3 mil of additional TV airtime.

FL-22: Adam Hasner (R): $475K raised (since July 26)

3:52 PM PT: Ads:

MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D)
NV-Sen: Majority PAC (D)

3:52 PM PT: Ads:

MT-Gov: Rick Hill (R)
WA-Gov: Rob McKenna (R)

3:55 PM PT: Ads:

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ-02: Martha McSally (R)
CA-26: Tony Strickland (R)
CA-39: American Sunrise (D)
FL-10: Daniel Webster (R)
FL-18: House Majority PAC (D)
GA-12: Chamber of Commerce (D)
IL-13: David Gill (D)
MA-06: John Tierney (D)
MI-11: Syed Taj (D)
MI-11: Syed Taj (D)
NC-07: David Rouzer (R)
NC-07: David Rouzer (R)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NY-01: Chamber of Commerce (R)
NY-18: Chamber of Commerce (R)
NY-21: Chamber of Commerce (R)
NY-24: Chamber of Commerce (R)
NY-25: Chamber of Commerce (R)
NY-27: Chamber of Commerce (R)
PA-18: Tim Murphy (R)
UT-04: Chamber of Commerce (D)

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Comment Preferences

  •  CA 41 debate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    There was also one other debate going on last night.

    I didn't get a chance to watch it yet but there are links to the video on here.

    What is it that has no weight, can be seen by the naked eye, and if you put it in a barrel it will make the barrel lighter?

    by lordpet8 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:02:22 PM PDT

  •  I would post a link to the debate between Sinema (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    and Parker but I am still not 100% sure that he is actually debating here.

    There are various good articles at The Arizona Eagletarian including here, here and here, but it seems he has agreed to something where they will be taped separately. Does talking to a camera on the condition that your opponent not be there count as a debate ?

    Advantage Sinema methinks.... gotta to go.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:09:59 PM PDT

  •  NJ 3: Runyan 49-39 (4+ / 0-)

    Stockton polling institute.

    http://www.philly.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:14:05 PM PDT

  •  Could the exit poll exclusions hit election night? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, MichaelNY

    If the absence of state exit polls means no calling until the votes are counted, Romney is going to start off way behind when you look at the list. It's 16-4 Red states, and in EVs the difference is even bigger - 135: 14.

    Romney will be left with only 3 definite instantly callable states totalling 21 EVs (KS, AL, MS) and another 4 likelies worth 35 EVs which will depend on the state of play on the night (AZ, MO, IN, MT). Obama on the other hand could have as many as 203 EVs in 14 instantly callable states (CA, WA, OR, NM, MN, MI, PA, NY, VT, MA, MD, ME, NJ, CT).

    Of course coverage of the election isn't the election itself, but it looks to me as if Obama is going to build up a large early lead in the official count, almost regardless of whether or not he's actually on track to win.

  •  Sam Wang updates his take on redistricting effect (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, nimh, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY, askew

    Here. Long story short:

    So: in terms of national popular vote margin, the Congressional 2012 new redistricting advantage is R+1.2+-0.1%... the Congressional incumbency advantage for 2012 is R+0.6+-1.0%....

    The sum of these is R+1.8 +/- 1.0%. This is the amount by which Democrats must win the popular vote in order to have approximately even odds of winning control of the House of Representatives. I previously assumed an advantage of R+1.3+/1.0%. The next House prediction will use the new calculation.

    The counter-arguments to Wang that I've heard have generally taken the form of "Naaaaah, Dems need to win by like 6% to take the House." In lieu of any better arguments than that, I'm inclined to go along with Wang here.
    •  Plus he cites Dave Braldee and DKE. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But here's what I don't get:

      Finally, a brief note on incumbency. Although incumbents walk into the general election campaign with an advantage, as shown by Andrew Gelman, much of that advantage should already be captured by the generic Congressional ballot.
      Should it be?  Why?  That's not obvious to me at all.  Isn't the whole point of the generic ballot that people aren't asked "would you like your incumbent Representative re-elected?"
      Previously I estimated the incumbency advantage this year, averaged over all districts, as R+1.3 +-1.8% (note that this error bar has been corrected). This is based on 1996-2010 data. Based on 1946-2010 data it shrinks to R+0.6 +- 1.0%. Although this cannot be distinguished from zero, we should probably use it anyway. This is a second net potential advantage for Republicans. So the Congressional incumbency advantage for 2012 is R+0.6+/-1.0%.
      I think the real problem is that he's averaging the incumbency effect over all districts, but what's seemingly more relevant is the average over those median 100 seats or so.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:16:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My own take on this is simple...... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        We will know in 33 days if his model is any good.  He's making a bold prediction out of step with everyone else, so his thesis will be proven conclusively right or wrong.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:15:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We certainly don't need D+6 to get the House (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      unless one thinks that we need D+6 to knock off incumbents like Mary Bono, Steve King, Michael Grimm, and Reid Ribble.  Those seats ought to be right around the tipping point to put us over (if we do get over, of course).  Those races are still tough for us, but not that insane.

  •  Reuters/Ipsos Post-Debate: Obama 48-43 RV (9+ / 0-)

    http://whtc.com/...

    This is a smaller sample of 536 RV's taken post-debate late Wednesday to early Thursday.

    The margin is down two points from the prior 4-day RV sample which was Obama: 46-39 RV (47-41 LV). This is not the average being brought down two points but a discreet sample from the prior average.

    The tracker has been going between +5 and +7 among LV lately, so this shows nothing more than usual noise.

  •  HUGE grain of salt but (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

    Reuters-Ipsos online poll shows 48-43 Obama among respondents in a poll taken after the debate -- though Romney did have net postive favorability and improved on several of the "issue" questions.

    http://www.reuters.com/...

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:26:49 PM PDT

  •  Republicans outraise Democrats in race for (4+ / 0-)

    Arizona State Legislature... with AFSCME and Salt River Pima Maricopa Indian Community supplying most of the dough for the Dems.

    It seems the GOP are cranky with incumbent State Senate President Steve Pierce for spending so big to allow Rich Crandall to beat a slightly more conservative candidate for the East Mesa Senate seat.

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:29:39 PM PDT

    •  Just to clarify (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh, KingofSpades, CF of Aus

      these are IE committees--Arizona's Clean Elections system is relevant to consider with candidate expenditures.

      Hm, interestingly, it seems like neither McComish nor Hydrick is participating in the Senate race in LD-18.  GOP incumbent Adam Driggs is not participating in LD-28, but Dem challenger Eric Shelley is participating.

      As for fundraising between McComish and Hydrick in LD-18 (Obama's best district among the "swing" seats):

      In Hydrick's initial report in June, she raised $14,298.60 and spent about 200.  In McComish's June report, he raised $9,554.00 and spent about 3k.

      In the pre-primary period,  Hydrick raised $28,790.20 and only spent 5k.  McComish raised $12,684.00 and spent nearly all of it.  

      In the post-primary period,  Hydrick raised $2,944.60 and currently has $40,766.19 on hand.  McComish raised $4,746.00, spent $14,235.11 , and currently has $31,175.05 on hand.

      So--while she's been a candidate--she's out-raised him by quite a bit, $46,033.40 to $26,984.00, and he's spent quite a bit (on what?  They both had uncontested primaries.).  He had raised a lot in January, before she even got in.  On the other hand, he did out-raise her in the most recent period.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:46:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  According to Follow The Money (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nimh, CF of Aus

        which has slightly different numbers for some reason, about half (46%?) of Hydrick's money to date comes from herself, her husband Frank, the Arizona Education Association, and AEA-Retired Vice President/PrecinctFrank Bing.  Actually, I think that is her husband, since there are people named Bing Hydrick.  Hydrick herself was an active educator.  So this is basically self-funding more than anything that might indicate local support/connections.  

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:59:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting stuff - Looks like she is wiling to (0+ / 0-)

          She is willing to put in a some serious cash ( for a lowly house race).

          What does this sort of cash get her? is it just signs and mailers ?

          Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

          by CF of Aus on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:17:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Why We Can Stop Pissing Ourselves, Part XXIVIVII (5+ / 0-)

    I've been in the doctor's office with my mother most of the day, so I am now just catching up to what I missed before signing off earlier this morning. All of the doom and gloom was to be expected and is certainly okay, as it helps us release tension, but as usual, I think we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

    In one of the previous threads, I made the point* that this doesn't change much about the dynamics of the race. It could end up hurting some of our momentum, but that much is far from clear. Even if it does that, though, there's no denying what we've accomplished so far and what we can still accomplish.

    I won't rehash any of that right now. Instead, I'll say we should look at how the other side is reacting. In an odd paralel to why so many of us were disappointed, in that we expect Obama to do better because we know he's capable, we can see indications that the other side was ready to be underwhelmed and expected very little. Romney has disappointed them in so many ways, it's hard to count.

    Is it any surprise that he's excited them by merely showing up and doing better than expected? Not to me. And while it's certainly expected to see them pile on with with the positivity, it's getting a little absurd. Via Kevin Drum, we see National Review Online post a few reactions, topped by this truly absurd comment:

    Romney’s was the best performance of any presidential candidate in the television age.
    Not much more can really be said, so I will simply agree with Drum that they are setting themselves up for failure in the next debate. He has to save walking on water for the third, so they are pretty much guaranteed to be disappointed in the second...right?

    Seriously now, would a political opposition really act this way if it were confident about its status and happy with the way things are going? I think the answer is clearly no.

    *By the way, since my most popular comments by far are the fake Politico articles and other bits of sarcasm, perhaps I should just limit what I say to that. Gotta please the people, you know?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 12:38:23 PM PDT

  •  Someone says. (14+ / 0-)

    (Re-Tweeted by David Bernstein.)

    I say: Sure.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:08:17 PM PDT

    •  Am I crazy in thinking this sets (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      birdboy2000, bythesea, MichaelNY

      some sort of new benchmark for dishonesty or at least disingenuousness?

      I was looking at the Facebook wall of one of my brother's friends last night. This guy is a Republican, so it's not a surprise his wall was filled with his friend's harsh comments about Obama (harsh, but not insane, I should add). Someone mentioned the lies Obama has told about Romney.

      I was curious about what this person was referring to. Maybe it's me, but I am not sure what Obama and OFA have lied about. I'm sure they've been purposefully shady at times, but they haven't been THAT bad. Take the $5 trillion tax cut mentioned last night, for instance. It's over ten years, and it's rounded. Even if you grant that Obama should have made clear this was a tax cut that was supposed to be balanced out by spending cuts and/or deduction reductions, how is this a lie? Is it really even that disingenuous? I don't think it is, but again, I am certainly biased.

      And what about Romney? The notion that he's not for cutting taxes for upper income taxpayers is absurd. That's in addition to his shadiness in saying that these people would pay the same share, which is technically true but obscures the fact that their overall contributions would go down, and the fact that his plan would help people who already have insurance but leave those without it to fend for themselves. And what about his whopper about green energy?

      And what about leading up to the debate, where he's built entire notions of governance around things Obama just didn't say, i.e. "You didn't built that"?

      I'm willing to give these guys more leeway than most when it comes to bullshitting, but this seems to be taking it to another level.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:22:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've just gone numb to it (12+ / 0-)

        the entire fucking campaign is based on dishonesty on their part.  Republicans are the ones who fucked up the economy, prevented us from having a larger stimulus to improve it, and are now running their entire campaign around Obama having failed.

        Not to mention brazenly taking shit out of context like "you didn't build that" and turning into the basis for your convention.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:32:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Basis of Romney's whole campaign (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, The Caped Composer

          Right from that first ad using the McCain quote.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:40:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, it's very frustrating (0+ / 0-)

          I once sarcastically said I wish the GOP would win this year, because then they at least have to be accountable for a lot of their promises; they'd actually have to try to balance the budget, but not cut defense or Medicare or raise taxes.

          •  no, they wouldn't (8+ / 0-)

            They would do what they always do, cut taxes, increase spending, and make a few symbolic spending cuts on programs Dems like. The modern GOP has never cared about deficits (Bush 41 was practically excommunicated for taking them seriously) except as a rhetorical device, and voters don't care about them either as long as the economy is improving.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:56:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well said, sacman. What makes this even more (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, bumiputera

              infuriating is that the most recent deficits aren't so much Obama's fault as they the recession's fault. In fact, he probably made them lower with the stimulus.

              Were you aware he came out with a plan to limit deductions? It's not entirely clear what the details of this were, aside from a $17,000 figure, but it's not a bad idea. He can propose a cap to avoid pissing off any particular interest group more than the others and actually increase revenue without raising marginal rates, which is probably the best way to do it. But this isn't exactly new. There are lots of similar plans, some of which have been in existence, or were before they were apparently cancelled. That he didn't propose this WAY sooner is a sign that he's not all that serious about the deficit. Obama's plans may be inadequate, but at least they aren't originating from fantasyland.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:17:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Right, that was kind of my point (0+ / 0-)

              They cant really do all those things.

              The tea party base is a little different though, imo. I think they do care about deficits.

        •  It just seems worse than usual this year. (0+ / 0-)

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:17:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  New shiny: Obama raises $150 million in September (19+ / 0-)

    Hey media, look over here!

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    The Obama campaign set a new monthly fundraising record for the 2012 election cycle, taking in more than $150 million in September as supporters rallied behind the president in the final phase of the election, according to people familiar with the totals.

    The September total far surpasses the $114 million raised in August, when the Obama team snapped a three-month streak in which it was outraised by Republican challenger Mitt Romney. At the time, the $114 million was the most the Obama campaign had collected in any one month in the 2012 election season. The most the Romney campaign has collected so far was $111 million in August.

    •  Thought that might come today (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin, DCCyclone

      But didn't want to jinx it.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:09:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is good news! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, LordMike, MichaelNY

      This is what will help us win the election, even if the rest of the debates go kind of poorly. In the end, it's about having enough money to execute the plan OFA has.

      On a related note, seeing a number like that makes me think the map could very well expanded, at least to Arizona.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:13:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Makes me wonder what gives in NC (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        There are clear signs of disengagement. Strange.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:15:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Neither side is spending that big there (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, LordMike, MichaelNY, itskevin, askew

          anymore, yet Obama's public poll standing has improved.  OFA has also registered 250K voters there.  It's not a path to 270, and I think Obama is starting to focus resources on genuine paths to 270.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:24:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The only thing I can think about NC (4+ / 0-)

          is that they are just focusing on states that they feel may actually turn out to be the tipping point state. Nate Silver has NC way down at 0.3% chance to be the tipping point, in 14th place.

          Not a crazy strategy, if that's what they're thinking. Kind of a bummer, though - I'd really like to see a map where the only state that flips from 2008 is Indiana. But admittedly my aesthetic preferences probably don't carry much weight among the OFA brain trust.

          •  I get that (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            Just looks odd to stop now when they obviously aren't short of cash. And surely there is only so much they can spend in the other 7 states before it becomes slightly redundant.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:36:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also seem to be cool lately (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin

              On Florida.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:50:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  They haven't cooled on Florida at all (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                They made a supermassive ad buy in Florida in September.  It's possible they're now scaling back there for tactical reasons.

                And for NC, same thing.

                Partly with NC I can see where maybe they've decided in their modeling they've hit a point of diminishing returns, combined with the opposition staying limited there.

                Ultimately they want to spend all their money over the next 33 days, and be broke or close to it on November 7th.  And I bet they avoid telegraphing their advertising plans in this home stretch.  So I bet ad buys will spike the rest of the way.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:20:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  What are those signs? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          Are there any that have come up this week?

          I've said in the past that there's no reason at all for OFA to give up on the state. If they decide not to go into Arizona, I'll understand. But they've been spending in NC all along. Even if the debate hiccup turns out worse than I think it will, we still have the advantage in the Electoral College. We don't need it to win, but unlike Romney in a host of other states, there's no particular advantage to us call it quits.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:26:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not so sure about disengagement in NC (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY, itskevin, DCCyclone, jncca

          I had a call from OFA last night - right before the debate - to remind me about early voting starting 10/18 and making sure I knew where to go to vote.

          NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

          by bear83 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:36:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What is Romney's side doing in this regard? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bear83

            From what I can tell, the campaign itself isn't doing all that much. Gotta wonder how much outside groups can pick up the slack, if at all.

            If we are indeed outclassing them on this front, all of the huffing and puffing over minor things looks even more silly.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:41:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I'm thinking (0+ / 0-)

          That even though he could do more to help down ballot, that some of his decisions are triangulating getting 300 EV's but also retaining the Senate and keeping the House at least in play (reality says it's not).

          Investing in pretty much every other swing state (OH, FL, AZ, NH, IA, etc) puts something downballot in play.  Investing in NC is purely for his own gain.

          I've always wanted him to do more to help win the House, but maybe the aversion to NC thus far is part of that and focusing on other states.  I just don't see anything worth fighting for in NC at the Guv or Congressional level, and I doubt OFA does either.

          or maybe they've got something else in mind.  Time will tell.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:39:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Obama campaign is GREAT at stunting bad news (5+ / 0-)

      This did this kind of thing in the primaries all the time.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:06:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And I helped! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MBishop1, askew, bfen

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:48:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any bets on Romney's fundraising for September? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm guessing $75 million... (though I'd guess his campaign will probably smother that news with some 8 figure moneybomb post-debate.)

    •  Obama and his joint cmtes are only $125m away (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

      from ONE BILLION DOLLARS for this cycle!!!

      I know what Messina said about them probably not being able to do it, bit I never doubted it myself.

      Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

      by Zutroy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:28:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-SD-20: Grothman FINALLY begins campaign (0+ / 0-)

    One month before the general election, Glenn Grothman, the #2 Republican in the Wisconsin State Senate, finally launches a formal campaign against Democratic challenger Tanya Lohr, and Lohr confirmed this through this campaign letter asking for additional campaign volunteers.

    Since this is an overwhelmingly-Republican state senate district in Wisconsin in which the Republican candidate should be able to get two-thirds of the vote in a Generic D vs. Generic R race, it's quite possible that Grothman is throwing together a campaign late in the going in order to trick progressives into thinking that SD-20 is a competitive race, when, in reality, it's not. Sounds like the type of stunt that Grothman would pull...

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:12:39 PM PDT

  •  Clearly leaking the fundrasing to change newscycle (0+ / 0-)

    Fairly blatant.

  •  Fun Stuff. Gore Blames Obama's Debate Performance (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, MichaelNY, jncca

    .....on the high altitude at Denver making him tired.  

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

  •  Just gunna throw this out there (0+ / 0-)

    It's quite frustrating that Nate doesn't update his Senate forecast daily.  We have had a bunch of new MO polls, as well as PPPs AZ poll.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:36:10 PM PDT

  •  VA-02 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, wwmiv, jj32, MichaelNY, redrelic17

    Rigell's a good campaigner.  He's a former car salesman, so it's natural for him.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:49:06 PM PDT

  •  College student debate instapoll (7+ / 0-)

    52% thought Romney won.  60% plan on voting for Obama to 24% for Romney.

    http://dailycaller.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 01:51:25 PM PDT

    •  Ok, but what did they think before the debate? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, nimh, tietack

      Post-debate voting intentions without a baseline are pretty meaningless I'm afraid.

    •  Huge divide there (7+ / 0-)

      A lot of Obama voters were simply honest about the debate, there was no use pretending the outcome was good for Obama, but they are still firmly in his corner.

      I think his numbers will hold up decent even after this less than stellar performance.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:05:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Same people who thought the May jobs numbers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bythesea

        would doom or save Obama are the ones fixated on today's shiny object.  Yes, a debate shiny object is more important than May jobs numbers as literally zero people will decide their vote based on them, but still, this is just another daily item that is obsessed over and will be irrelevant in three weeks.

        (The interesting point here is, like some of us were speculating, Romney didn't much help himself in the debate.  Rather, Obama damaged himself.  Romney is still rather helpless in doing anything to help himself much.  He needs Obama to make unforced errors.)

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:14:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Please explain this (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV
          Romney didn't much help himself in the debate.  Rather, Obama damaged himself.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:35:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed strongly (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sacman701, tietack, DCCyclone

            I saw it the exact opposite way. I think Romney helped himself, I expect we'll see a bump in the polls but even if that doesn't happen he's certainly energized some of the doubters in his base and I expect that while he may not see a bump in the polls I think he'll definitely see a fundraising bump.

            On the flip side, I don't think even the softest Obama supporters likely saw anything that would flip there vote.

            •  It's possible Obama damaged himself slightly, too (0+ / 0-)

              We'll have to see if anything shows up in polling. And the thing is, by the time that might register, it could be blunted or reversed by the way OFA uses all the lying crap Romney uttered on stage.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:52:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He damaged (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Himself to the extent that he didn't perform as well as Romney. But the standard I'm using isn't does he get some criticism from partisans for his performance. The standard I'm using is did I see anything that would lead me to believe that even the softest Obama supporters would shift to Romney and I just didn't.

                And the very limited amount of data that's appeared seems to back me up. The Reuters poll showed it 48-41 before the debate and 48-43 today. A tightening, but one that came exclusively from Romney gaining voters.

          •  My view is the exact opposite (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bjssp, bfen, jncca

            I thought Obama was himself, didn't damage himself at all, nothing surprising about anything he said or did.  There was no memorable gaffe, no barrage of rhetorical incomprehension like Dubya had in the first debate vs. Kerry.

            But Romney looked the best he ever has.  He lied through his teeth, yes.  But he did it with a smile and without a hint of doubt.  He was actually animated, something people aren't used to seeing in him.  So in real time he looked good.

            Now, Obama and OFA are working hard at the post-debate work to expose Mitt's lies and downgrade his performance in voters' eyes.  That's smart, and it just might work.

            But I think tommypaine's take is exactly the wrong one coming out of the debate.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:27:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Nate forecasts a Romney gain of net 2.2 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, LordMike, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    based on past post-debate instapolls relative to post-debate horserace changes. He doesn't mention anything about the quality of the samples though, and this one (he works with CNN polling data) was clearly  predisposed to be more generous to Romney.

  •  DemCorps Memo: Romney good night but no game chang (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/...

    In the end, though, this debate did not emerge as the game-changer the Romney campaign needed. While his ballot support grew in pre- and post-debate testing, so did Obama's. Moreover, all of Romney's gains came from Republican-leaning undecided voters. He did not move a single voter away from Obama.

    Only 42 percent of these voters concluded Romney won the debate, no larger than the Republican lean of this small sample. Nearly four in ten voters (38 percent) say neither candidate won the debate.

    •  N=45, though. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, jj32, nimh, DCCyclone

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:15:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  People are so uncritical (5+ / 0-)

      I've watched President Obama for some time now.  That apatheia we watched last night was purposed.  No one can argue that it was anything other.  Now some people might make the case he 'should have been more aggressive.'  I think we got to go with the brain trust at the Obama campaign.  It's 35 days out or so.  They get better polling than we do.  He wasn't pathetic.  He didn't lose the debate per se.  There were no knock out punches.  Romney was more aggressive.  

      Interestingly I was watching CNN where they had male and female 'undecided' under the screen.  From my reckoning it was men who responded better to Romney's aggression.  It is also men who happen to be the pundits (or women living in a man's world and imitating male values).  My guess is that men like fights.  Men like to see combat.  The media had developed this up as an intellectual 'heavy weight' bout.  

      Yet I think that the Obama campaign simply sized this thing up and figured we can afford to lose 2 points for a couple of weeks.  Losing the debate does not equal losing the election.  

      So Obama presented a purposed apatheia.  This wasn't so much as a debate as it was a photo op with Romney.  Romney could say what he wanted.  The point wasn't to disprove Romney.  That will happen in November.  I think they wanted to present something friendly to women, to maintain the lead they already have.

      Are Hispanics, Blacks, Jews, gays and university students really going to switch over to Romney?  Think about it.

      •  The only meaningful questions here (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, ArkDem14, bythesea, MichaelNY

        a) what was Obama's actual lead going into the debate? (4 - 6 percent I imagine)
        b) what part of his overall coalition might have be influenced to switch by that aggressive Romney display last night (white men which represent his weakest numbers)
        c) is it enough for Romney to win? (no it is not)

        I think most of us were disappointed that we didn't get great entertainment value last night.  We wanted to see Obama do what Romney was doing.  But the brain trust doesn't care about entertaining us.  They want to win and while they might have been surprised with how good Romney was last night it is not enough to make much of a difference anyway.  

        The way I have been watching the polls the question since August is what percentage of Obama sympathizers are actually going to come out and cast a vote.  The Republicans (and much of the media) are re-living 2010 which lacked a popular like-able figure like Obama.  

        I remember after the Democratic convention Jim Messina warned that the polls were going to tighten:

        "This election is going to be very close. We have been building a ground operation that will give us the one or two points that we need to win these states and we are on track to do that."

        Most of us were shaking our heads at the time wondering if he had polling which suggested that things were going south for Obama.  When the bounce was sustained we thought WTF is he talking about?  

        I think he was referencing already the next part of the plan which was the 'sober' debate performance which was coming.  They likely knew it was going to give the swooners palpitations

      •  I agree only partly (4+ / 0-)

        I think it would have been possible for him to go after Romney more for lying, without being obviously nasty about it. He could have said something like he said on the stump today, about how it's interesting to be here with Mitt Romney's body double, because the candidate called Mitt Romney has spent the entire campaign calling for tax cuts for the richest, and whoever I'm debating here suddenly denies it, so either I'm debating Mitt Romney's body double, or a shifting target that will say one thing to his rich contributors in private, another to Republican voters in the primaries and partisan crowds at campaign appearances, and a third thing to 40 million viewers on TV. Had he said it with a smile, it wouldn't have seemed hostile, but like purposeful joking. He did that kind of thing to McCain a lot in the debates.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:43:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If he'd used (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The tough on Big Bird line yesterday, I think that's the kind of line that can really make up for an otherwise lackluster performance. Its really hard to win a debate when the other guy has the best line.

          Does anyone remember anything about the second 1984 presidential debate or the 1988 VP debate, outside of "I will not use my opponents youth and inexperience" and "You're no Jack Kennedy." For all I know Mondale and Quayle had Churchillian performances. But it was irrelevant because there opponents each had a breakthrough line.

  •  Finally (9+ / 0-)

    Can we all finally disabuse ourselves of the notion that Latinos are culturally conservative and would find a natural home in the Republican party if not for economics?

    http://www.towleroad.com/...

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:14:33 PM PDT

    •  Uh, the pollster is Zogby?? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:11:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not that bad (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, LordMike

        Only their internet surveys are completely bunk. Either way, the results are so far outside the margin of error as to be persuasive even in the case of a marginally acceptable pollster.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:17:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gotcha, I couldn't tell if it was internet or not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          Yeah I think I might send this to my elections professor since I made that assertion without any source in mind in an earlier class that the "socon" hispanic voter was a myth.

          I wish I just had some NZT to take so that I could remember the sources for all the random knowledge I've gleamed from reading SSP/DKE over the years.  Research papers would be a breeze haha

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:22:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps it depends on the particular issue. (0+ / 0-)

      It wouldn't surprise me to see some Hispanics be more conservative on abortion and birth control than most others, given that they are heavily Catholic, but do they vote on it?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:19:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-01 - Zerban outraised Ryan (7+ / 0-)

    for 3Q, $770K to $566K.  From teh Twitters, so no link yet.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:23:46 PM PDT

    •  Although (4+ / 0-)

      most people (outside of the district) probably don't realize Paul Ryan is still running for Congress.  And nobody is thinking about it.

      Zerban is a nice guy but I don't think he has much of a chance, unfortunately.  Ryan did give Romney a small bump in Wisconsin, which I think is certainly magnified in his district and even more so in the Congressional race.

      VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

      by psychicpanda on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:47:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Zerban's not giving up without a fight, though (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, askew

        He delivered a 50,000-signature demanding a Ryan-Zerban debate yesterday, so Zerban isn't going to give up on his efforts to defeat Ryan in his home district.

        "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:00:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What else is Zerban doing? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

          I said when Ryan was picked that he had an opportunity, not a guarantee. He should be pounding the pavement in the district every single moment from now until the polls close. It might not work, but unlike other candidates' opponents, Zerban's can't be there to fight back.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:22:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  But the Ryan bump is completely gone (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The polling has reverted to pre-bump, Obama up by a pretty big margin.

        OFA already stopped advertising there.

        Yes Obama was in Madison today, but that will be the last we'll hear of Wisconsin as a battleground.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:30:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  .... just imagine if that went to Pat Kreitlow (5+ / 0-)

      instead of being flushed down the Bachmann drain.

      I really wish Kos could use that hate money more strategically, and lets face it that's what it is.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:12:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I almost want to pull a bait and switch someday (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        where I find some batshit fucking crazy Republican who is nonetheless entrenched like Virginia Foxx to run against and run the Tarryl Clark/Rob Zerban campaign of getting national donors, only to redirect that money from my campaign account to somewhere it'll be useful in say, early September.  I feel like a lot of those dollars wouldn't have otherwise been donated if it weren't for the opponent.

        On the other hand, I could just scream, DONATE TO PATRICK MURPHY! lol

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:15:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's the limit for doing this? (0+ / 0-)

          I have to imagine you can't give all that much. Otherwise, why wouldn't we see this thing more often? I mean, there's virtually no chance of the Republicans defeating Jose Serrano, so why doesn't the GOP put up a sacrificial lamb in order to redirect donations to other New York Republicans? Seems way too easy to take advantage of, no?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:24:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because most donors aren't that stupid (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SLDemocrat, Daman09

            Also you're getting very little bang for your donation buck and you'd pretty much be vilified for doing it.  I was thinking along the lines of transferring to a PAC, but I suppose there are enough worthwhile races that a couple hundred thousand dollars can be divided enough ways to redirect all of it to campaigns.

            Obviously I'm not seriously going to do this, but I just hate it that there are liberals out there whose only donation is to Graves or Zerban or someone in a similar situation.  I understand that there are people who have no idea of how useless that is, but there are tons of purity trolls who will "only donate to progressives!" or some bullshit when there are other perfectly liberal candidates in viable races.

            I just wish that the left's donation dollars could come as close as possible to some equation that maximized the marginal value of donations or spending/liberalism or something along those lines.

            Essentially if we had the liberalness of the PCCC but the insider tactical information of the DCCC.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:31:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Patrick Murphy is running quite (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JBraden

          a good campaign and is up right now. FL-18 is a Democratic trending swing district.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:54:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Biden does it again (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

    ""My heart breaks, come on man. You know the phrase they always use? Obama and Biden want to raise taxes by a trillion dollars. Guess what? Yes we do one regard"

    Obviously taken out of context, but it's not like that part matters. Expect that to be cut into an ad soon.

    •  Well, Obama has said he wants to raise taxes. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      On the rich, that is. Taxes are a winning issue for us, unless I've missed something, so anything that draws attention back to the subject is a good thing.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 03:20:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just imagine the ad possibilities (0+ / 0-)

        All that you need to cut is this part of the video.

        "Obama and Biden want to raise taxes by a trillion dollars. Guess what? Yes we do"
        Then you just cut to their standard, never-ending supplies of lies and distortions about the ACA. It basically writes itself into another ad.

        Heck, you could cut that part with the other Biden gaffe earlier this week about how the middle class has been buried the last four years.

        We somehow have to count on Biden winning the VP debate after Obama's tanking yesterday. I can't say I am remotely confident. Ryan is significantly more talented at lying than Mitt Romney, and Biden can't even read from a teleprompter without making a gaffe.  

    •  eh, I kind of agree with bjssp (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, tietack

      The Dems are pretty clear when it comes to tax increases for the rich. There are probably a lot of statement favoring tax increases for the rich that could be clipped and used in a misleading way.

  •  MI-11 (4+ / 0-)

    Glad to see some ads for Syed Taj!

    Protons have mass. I didn't know they were Catholic!

    by lordpet8 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:33:42 PM PDT

    •  MI11 (5+ / 0-)

      He probably needs to run positive ads like these to introduce himself, but to win this he will have to discredit Bentivolio. If the public sees it as Taj v. vanilla Republican they don't know, most of them will still vote for the guy with the R next to his name. If it's Taj v. conspiracy nut who bragged about making his students cry, Taj should win.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 04:44:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A question to throw out there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    How much of an edge do you think President Obama has in the Electoral College?  What I mean by that is, how much could he lose the popular vote and still win the presidency by winning (most likely) Ohio/Wisconsin/Nevada (which I still believe are going to be his best swing states.)

    In 2008, the state that put Obama over the top was Colorado (which gave him 278, he would have had 269 w/o it).  Obama won Colorado by 8.95% versus the 7.25% he won nationally, for a difference of 1.7%.  Of course if McCain had won more votes nationally, it probably wouldn't have been evenly distributed, so the gap would have been less.

    My guess is that President Obama wins Ohio even if he loses by 2% nationally, and probably Wisconsin as well.  Nevada is more difficult to figure, as it is unclear how off the polling is there.  

    WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

    by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:19:31 PM PDT

  •  The mistake Obama's team made (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, SLDemocrat, DCCyclone

    was assuming Romney wouldnt run to the center in the debate. They underestimated the right's tolerance of any centrist positions, but at least for now, it seems to be working for Romney:

    Charlie Gerow, a former aide to Republican President Ronald Reagan, said "conservatives are going to give him a fair amount of latitude" to move toward the political center in this election.

    Why?

    "Because they want to win," Gerow said.

    Which way he would govern as president? I doubt anyone can say for sure. But, he needs to win first.

    link.

    •  After Hearing The Evening News Press Accounts..... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, LordMike, SLDemocrat

      .....of Obama appearing "irritated" at the very act of participating in 48 hours worth of debate prep (with the requisite "study break" to visit Hoover Dam of course) I'm frankly seeing redder than ever.  Supporters sent $150 million to his campaign just last month and as of right now, if those press accounts are true, are getting a terrible bargain for their hard-earned money.  

      •  And that money is supposed to control (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, jj32, askew, DCCyclone, bumiputera

        what the media say by exactly what method?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:53:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well the one thing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          the Obama campaign has been effective with is the ads and the ground game.  

          Personally, I think some of the attacks on Romney were basically "Swift Boat" and character assassination, but they have been no doubt effective and I can't blame them for doing that given that the Dems have been on the receiving end of this for so long.

          WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

          by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:08:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  This makes me quite irritated (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, KingTag

        and I'm fearful that these poor debate performances may continue.  My problem here isn't that Romney beat him, Romney is a good debater and there is no shame in losing to him, but that President Obama did not even try.  And his attitude toward this and several parts of governing that he obviously dislikes is a part of my disillusionment with him in the first place.

        Look, I thought about what would be the President's realistic worst debate outcome yesterday, and it was a few notches better than what I saw.  Obama simply did not mentally show up for the debate.   The performance yesterday was worthy of a George W Bush or a Rick Perry, although all of Bush's six debate performances were better than what President Obama gave yesterday.  

        I do believe that the voters will give him a pass for one poor debate performance if he doesn't repeat it, as this was out of character with what the majority of voters assume of the man.  (If this was someone like Bush or Perry, it might have been curtains.)  But one more below average debate performance and he will lose the popular vote at the least, and likely the Presidency.  

        WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

        by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:01:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt you're right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          I am seeing that you tend to be pessimistic about Democratic chances.

          Why do you assume what the media are saying is accurate?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:15:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  At Least For Me..... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, Chachy

            .....it seems convincing because it is consistent with everything that led up to the debate--the delays with debate prep and the fact that he couldn't even stay focused for two full days without a Hoover Dam detour--and with his performance at the debate where he seemed irritated and disengaged.  Perhaps it's coming from a cub reporter trying to make news or perhaps from a pissed off Obama staffer on the outs, but even if it's BS, it's a wake-up call to all of us that we deserve better for $150 million a month.

            •  I don't think donors need a wakeup call (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, bythesea, sapelcovits

              And their money is going to be used very effectively for ads and GOTV efforts.

              If Obama and his campaign needed a wakeup call, they got one.

              I think you are complaining too much.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:34:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  With All Due Respect.... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                .....I think there's plenty justification to complain.

                •  You're complaining that your money (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  redrelic17, James Allen, bumiputera

                  didn't pay for a better performance at a debate. That's not what money is used for, in general, is it? You might as well claim that your money isn't being well spent if the president trips while walking outside.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:55:46 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The Campaign Is Only As Strong As The Candidate... (0+ / 0-)

                    The money has been well-spent on the campaign....until the candidate showed he was its weakest link, at least in these last few days when he failed to take seriously debate prep.  Whether or not the press reports are true, it's pretty clear far more effort should have and could have been put into debate prep for what was arguably the most important night of the campaign.  And when that financial report appears within 24 hours of last night's debate performance, it's hard not to make the connection that we should be expecting more for our money.

                    •  Exactly on this: (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bumiputera
                      The Campaign Is Only As Strong As The Candidate
                      And in spite of his lackluster debate performance, he's a damn good candidate. But your point is made: Money is not at issue here. So stop complaining about how money is being spent and whether people are getting their money's worth.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:14:07 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Obama had a poor debate, ergo he's a poor candidate? Ok, I suppose in Mark-Land, where everything that happens is an excuse to take the absolute worst-case scenario and run with it, this would make sense, but back in reality, Obama has been an excellent candidate who had one stumble (and even then, it was more that Romney had a really good night rather than Obama having a poor one).

                      But again, this is Mark-Land we're dealing with, so I guess we have no choice but to believe that Obama is a horrible candidate, and that we donors (and yes, I have donated to the Obama campaign) should be disgusted because of something that has absolutely nothing to do with how spending goes.

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:47:59 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Straw Man..... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Chachy

                        It's possible for Obama to be an excellent candidate who made some very poor campaign choices at a very critical time that could and perhaps has undermined it all.  If you really believe that Obama represented the campaign and all of its volunteers and donors well last night, then I guess it's easy to see why you believe I'm the problem.  But perhaps if somebody in the campaign had looked him in the eyes in the lead-up to the debate prep and said "Mr. President....you need to take this more seriously", we probably wouldn't be having this conversation right now.

              •  Thanks Mark for your concern, but... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, NMLib

                ...I've given OFA $3000 and am very happy.

                OFA has run a brilliant campaign that has put them in great position to win by a more comfortable margin than seemed possible at the outset.

                I'm getting an incredible bargain for my hard-earned money, and any donors who complain are childish whiners.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:34:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  While I disagree with Mark27/WiscIndy (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              There is support for their position, ref Snippy Obama, Whose Heart's Not in It, which begs the question about the President's "fire in the belly".

              I think he'll pass the test with flying colors, given his fire today, but still, it is a legitimate question.

              •  I think that article is fairly sympathetic (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, bumiputera

                This is the key part of the article, to me, and it may be perceptive:

                I suspect a more prosaic explanation: A person of his temperament cannot maintain the same open demeanor when he's dealing with war and death all the time. As, we must recall, Obama has been for years now. If Obama seems shut down, perhaps it is because he has to be to be who he is and do the job he needs to do day in and day out. If his heart didn't seem in it last night, I wonder if it's not in part because the last thing he needs to consider in his work on a day-to-day basis is his heart. It's a long way from being a community organizer, civil-rights lawyer and anti-war state senator to running a drone war that kills innocent civilians, ordering the death of militants, overseeing a policy that's led to an increase in American casualties in Afghanistan, and delivering funereal remarks at a ceremony honoring the returning remains of a slain American diplomat.
                All that said, if he didn't still want the job, I don't think he would have run for reelection. I think there are some important things he still wants to do. As he is a smart man, he knows that he has been severely hemmed in by the obstructionism and downright sabotage from the Republicans, so if he doubts how much power he will have to act, he has very strong grounds for that. But I think he really does care about what would happen to the US if Romney and the Republicans took over.

                I think it's his nature to be polite, and I think he was sincere in having enjoyed an intellectual conversation with Romney, but he does need to call Romney more on things, like he did during the debates with McCain. And as much as McCain ran against his record, Romney is a much more slippery character, so in the next two debates, the president has to be prepared for Romney to deny absolutely anything he's campaigned on, accuse him of anything, and say any number of bizarre things.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:33:08 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  What was the "realistic worst debate performance" (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera, jncca

          you were thinking of?  Perhaps you discounted the possibility of a clear foot in mouth moment, obvious brain freeze, Quayle 88 redux, or obviously bad soundbite, but realistically all those things could possibly have happened.

          And comparison to Rick Perry?  Seriously, I guess the rest of us must have missed the moment when he had to name three things and went "oops..." and never finished the sentence.  Nor did he stammer, scowl, and whine "it's hard" like a nine year old who won't put in effort to do his homework--or like Bush in 2004.

          So he had an off night, and later acknowledged it.  But the Bush/Perry comparison, especially, seems a real stretch.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:19:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I admit the Perry reference was overkill (0+ / 0-)

            But Bush wasn't that bad in his debates.  Bush was better in all three of his debates in 2004 than Obama was last night, at least in style, and I stand by that.

            And I think the problem was largely style.  I read the debate transcript and from that the debate was far closer than it looked on TV.  

            I guess my frustration with the President in neglecting a lot of things of his job he doesn't care for(i.e. debates and schmoozing with Congresspeople/Senators) and my overall disappointment with his job as President got to me here.

            WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

            by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:54:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  so you're an avid supporter (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              of Obama right? that's been the impression I've gleaned from your posts so far.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:56:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I will vote for him (0+ / 0-)

                because I support equal rights for women and gays/lesbians and I support his Supreme Court nominees.  These are things that affect me very personally and deeply.

                But my vote for him will be like medication that tastes terrible and results in a lot of side effects...

                WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 09:00:28 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  err (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  can't tell if missed the point of my post, or if simply continuing the joke...

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 02:23:26 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I may have missed it (0+ / 0-)

                    I'm slow to get some jokes, but I assumed that your post that I was "an avid supporter of Obama" was sarcastic.

                    WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                    by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:14:11 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It was (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I really don't mind that you're a reluctant supporter of Obama, and I don't mind you posting once or twice to explain your reasons for that, but bringing it up in every other post gets really old, really quick. You're a good poster otherwise so I highly recommend that you not do that on a Democratic site.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:20:52 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Your concern is duly noted (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:28:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Will There Ever Be A Scenario..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          .....when the apologists on this board direct their contempt towards Obama instead of me?

          I guess if you're fine riding off the cliff with the guy who showed up last night who was too "irritated" to prep for a debate with his opponent with everything that is at stake, then I guess you can continue to look at me as the enemy.  Meanwhile, I'm gonna demand better.

    •  Well, Duh! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Romney should have figured that out months ago...

      This new Romney will present more of a formidable challenge.  The "moderate" Romney is the candidate that was the most worrisome.  So now, the task will be not to let him get away with being the new "moderate" guy...  A not so easy task, but one made easier by the candidate's months of tea party pandering.  Pull up the old videos from the Romney primary campaign!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:53:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He ran the center? (5+ / 0-)

      No increase in taxes.  Voucherize Medicare.  Block grant Medicaid.

      Could have fooled me.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:26:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Final Ipsos post debate tracking poll results.... (5+ / 0-)

    Who won the debate? Romney 50%, Obama 28%

    More or less likely post-debate to feel more positive about Mitt Romney? More favorable 27%, Less Favorable 19%. For Obama, it’s 16% more fav, 18% less fav.

    Head to head among Likely Voters. Predebate Obama 48%, Romney 41%. Post-debate 48%, Romney 43%.

    Not too bad...  That would translate to about a 1.5 point gain using the current Nowcast, which was predicted by Cohn today.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 05:57:32 PM PDT

  •  Sam Wang seems to have priced in bad debates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike

    He sees it at most costing 30EV.  He has Obama at 332 so 300 EV or so aren't bad.

    •  Kills any shot at the House we had as well. (0+ / 0-)

      A truly dreadful performance and one that will effect Pres Obama and the country for the next four years.  He didn't have any desire to be there it comes out - Romney has been focused on this debate for weeks and weeks and Pres Obama couldn't even show up mentally.  

      "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:34:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would that be if he lost all 3 debates? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Or is that just for losing the first debate? I'm unconvinced he'll lose any eventual support over this, in the end. He might. We just don't know yet.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:37:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If he loses any more debates (0+ / 0-)

        the way he did last night, he will lose at least the popular vote.  Hopefully, the President and his advisers understand that.

        Although, I just read the transcript of the debate and it felt a lot more even to me that when I saw it live.  There seems to be something with the delivery that really went wrong.

        WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

        by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:43:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I read (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bythesea, bumiputera

          on politicalwire that Obama is not happy with his performance there and that the campaign does not expect him to be that way at all next time.

          Sorry you got hide-rated by a few people this morning.  Far too much drama going around, partially unwarranted.  

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:47:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's hard for me to conceive of him losing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, bumiputera

          a debate on foreign policy, but I really don't know on what basis you believe you can predict that that would lose him the popular vote.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:00:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think that if (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            he continues to perform the way he did last night, the voters are going to have a much lesser opinion of the President. It is one thing to put out one bad performance, it is quite another to keep producing bad performances.
             And will vote him out at least nationally.  It is possible IMO that Ohio/Wisconsin/Nevada may still vote for Obama even if he loses the popular vote narrowly.

            And yes he can easily lose the debate in foreign policy, e.g. if he doesn't effectively rebut the charges on the embassy attack in Libya.  And given that in my opinion, the administration really screwed the pooch with the explanation of what happened, that isn't going to be that easy.  And unless President Obama brings up the initial Romney comments before that attack and hammers him on that (the kind of stuff that Obama had great difficulty in doing in debate 1), it is very easy to see Romney winning that argument.

            The idea that the Obama somehow cannot lose the debate on foreign policy is the same kind of assumption that his supporters made last night going into the debate,

            WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

            by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:16:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree that a mediocre performance next time (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea

              would be likely to erode his support at the margins, but I think it's overly bold to predict it would cost him a popular vote lead.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:20:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I will admit you did make a lot of good points (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                WiscIndy

                though, in fairness. But seriously, Romney has said so many idiotic things on foreign policy and Obama has such a clear and obvious record of achievement, it would be much harder for him to "win" a debate on that than on domestic policy, given that unemployment is still high and the ACA is still not that popular.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:27:15 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Style over substance (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I'm now coming to the conclusion that is what killed Obama yesterday.  After reading the transcript, it was much closer when you read the transcript that seeing the debate live.

                  Also don't forget that Bush was considered a favorite over Kerry in the foreign policy debate in 2004 (debate 1) and Kerry just crushed him.  

                  WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                  by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:41:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Just finished working at the Obama event (13+ / 0-)

    I was an usher for the Obama event today in Madison and it was insane.  The people entering the gate were super pumped and it was ridiculous to see how many people packed into Bascom.  Apparently, they had to turn away thousands of people.  They also had hundreds of Special Registration Deputies, so it was a tremendous event for registering students.   I am exhausted, but boy this event was amazing.

    Social Democrat, WI-05

    by glame on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 06:53:55 PM PDT

    •  Reminds me of an Obama rally in Philly in '08 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

      I went to it and it was sooooo crowded and took forever to get in and out, but it was all worth it.  I had to jump just to see a hint of where he stood.  So it was a listening experience.  It was one of those mini-speeches where he mentioned a pie shop owner in Ohio.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:29:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I kind of knew it would be like that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      from what the cops along the bike path said. I actually know one of said deputies (a TAA organizer), who had to arrive before 10AM to be sure of getting in and waited in line for four hours. Still, she clearly loved the speech.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:33:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP says Obama running 1 point worse in (7+ / 0-)

    first night of VA poll, despite polling that he lost the debate.

  •  Apologies if already posted (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

    But a new Lampson ad. Pretty good. Love the "As Texan as they get" line.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  Romney says 47% comments were wrong (6+ / 0-)
    Thought he would do this at the debate. I dont know the strategy here. Good to do it after good press of the debate? Or does this just make the remarks an issue again?
    •  Romney would have done it at the debate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      but neither Lehrer nor Obama would bring it up.

      I suspect that this is why Obama did not bring up the 47% comments during the debate, because it would give Romney an open opportunity to apologize for them.  It was one of the few positive tactical moves in an otherwise terrible performance.

      WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

      by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:02:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What an ass (8+ / 0-)

      My god, how is he even getting mid 40s with this type of shit?

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

      by Daman09 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:15:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Easy (0+ / 0-)

        Because his opponent is too chicken to call him out on it in a debate.

        But this is what all good politicians do.  Romney is finally learning how to do this well, and he is being helped when no one is calling him out on it.

        People here talk of Romney as if he is a monster.  But in reality most politicians would do what he did, including on Bain and his taxes, if they got the chance.  

        WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

        by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:22:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some are arguing now that (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, MichaelNY, tietack, askew, itskevin

          If he did, Romney would have made some touching rebuttal of those comments....despite defending them in September.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:24:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's what I think (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            Romney had a canned one-minute response/apology for the 47% remarks ready to go.  Had either Lehrer or Obama brought it up, Romney would have said it, and his mind that would have ended most of the damage from those remarks.

            Now Lehrer never directly brought it up, probably assuming that Obama would (and trying to goad him into it with a question).  For whatever reason Obama never did either, and that may have been intentional, the longer that Romney cannot directly apologize for them, the longer the campaign can keep beating Romney over the head for it.

            But I was generally responding to the poster above of how Romney can keep changing his positions on a dime.

            WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

            by WiscIndy on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:31:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Romney was carrying out... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JGibson, bumiputera, LordMike

              Prince Whoopass in a Can.

              President Obama just needs to be punchier and less passive next time. He can't seem bored, distracted, or sleepy again.

              The vice presidential debate generally doesn't move a lot of votes. But I will be interested to see whether badass heartbreaker Vice President Biden or fuckup goofball Vice President Biden shows up to the ball game.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 12:20:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  yeah, poor Mitt Romney (5+ / 0-)

          he's just m!zzundastood

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 08:46:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  WoW! (6+ / 0-)

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 07:57:43 PM PDT

  •  Interesting debate reaction from my mom, (5+ / 0-)

    who read about it in the Economist. She's terrifyingly right-wing on social issues, as you all might know, but is much more sympathetic to Democrats on economic issues (to the little extent that she thinks about America at all).

    She said something to the effect of: "of course Romney will look better, since it's easier to criticize the incumbent without offering a solution", and "how can Romney blame Obama entirely for the economy". But then she said "but Obama shouldn't have spent so much time going into detail".

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