Well, could have seen this coming.
The media appear to be anointing Romney as the winner of debate #1, just as they anointed Ronald Reagan the winner of his first debate, and Bush II the winner of his first debate.
Not based on saying things that were true. Not based on actually landing successful and valid critiques on their opponents. But just for showing up and not failing.
Romney didn't make any major gaffs, and didn't come off as either stupid or mean or evil. So the talking heads are declaring this a Romney Win. Chris Cilizza at the Washington Post called it "Romney's prepared competence".
Obama didn't do himself any favors. He was quiet and competent, but not particularly inspiring. (One wit tweeted that his plan is clearly to be the comeback kid in the second debate...). He won the last election as the Hope kid, not the accountant, but that's what he was tonight... rattling off number after number.
But humans don't connect with numbers. He needed more human connecting moments. Maybe Romney landed one or two of those, after an entire summer of coming off as an uncaring elitist who doesn't understand cookies or NASCAR rain ponchos.
Pre-debate, several commentators noted that debates aren't won and lost on talking points. They are won or lost on impressions. By that metric, Obama screwed up. He was subdued, he looked down a lot, he didn't spend enough time making "eye contact" with the camera. Romney, on the other hand, came off as competent and aggressive.
According to a CBS poll of non-committed voters, post-debate,
- 63% now say Romney cares about their needs and problems (up from 30% before debate.)
- 56% of uncommitted voters say their opinion of Romney has changed for the better. 13% say that about the President.
- 46% pick Mitt Romney as debate winner. 22% say it was Pres Obama. 32% call it a tie.
I gotta agree with Kos:
So looking at the snap polls, it's clear that the president got spanked tonight. It's one thing to play prevent defense, which is what he was doing, and it was another to completely ignore Mitt Romney and let lie after lie stand unchallenged. It was another thing to refuse to defend Social Security.
...So what will happen moving forward? There will be aggressive fact checking, which may make a dent in Romney's win, but I'm not confident of that. Romney's favorabilities, if the snap polling is to be believed, will also improve. But nothing will knock Obama's down, and in fact, that CBS snap poll found that people found Obama more empathetic.
Obama ripped Romney for his lack of specifics, asking if he won't share the details with the rest of us because his plans are too good, and benefit the middle class too much?
And Romney did come with specifics... He tossed out lots of details; most of them weren't true, but how many of the people watching will know that?
Chris Matthews, on MSNBC: "I don't know how let Romney get away with the crap he threw out tonight... What was he doing? He went in there disarmed!"
Romney kept hammering at the "$716 billion" cut from Medicare. Not true, and Obama replied, but Romney kept repeating it over and over. (And good god, the Politifact fact-checking site takes a look at the Romney's claim, admits "Obamacare does not literally cut funding from the Medicare program’s budget. Rather, the health care law instituted a number of changes to try to bring down future health care costs in the program. ... That amount - $716 billion - refers to Obamacare’s reductions in Medicare spending over 10 years, primarily paid to insurers and hospitals. But the statement gives the impression that the law takes money already allocated to Medicare away from current recipients." And even so, "We rate his statement Half True.")
Romney zinged on Solyndra, claiming that half the companies that got government support had failed and half had ties to Democratic donors. Not true, but it didn't stop him.
Romney claimed Obama can take no credit for the big increase in oil production because it's up on private land, not public land. Which is both not true, and a nonsensical thing to say, but fits in with the GOP narrative "Anything that goes wrong anywhere in the world is is Obama's fault; anything good that happens he gets no credit for."
Romney kept insisting he could cut taxes, raise defense spending, and be revenue-neutral by cutting vaguely defined "loopholes" and deductions. Nobody believes it would work, but that didn't stop him from repeating it over and over, without giving specifics as to how it COULD work.
He said Obama doubled the deficit - not true.
He said Obamacare would raise middle-class taxes. Not true.
Romney insisted he had a detailed health plan that included keeping coverage for pre-existing conditions. Not true on either count.
He made ludicrous statements like , “The government is not effective in bringing down the price of anything” and “The private market… always works best.” (That was the plan for Medicare Advantage - the Bush plan to let private insurers compete for Medicare patients to bring down costs. It FAILED, it ADDED to costs, and bringing it back in line with the rest of Medicare is part of the $716 billion in savings that Romney was lying about.)
Even his statement that "Half of college graduates can't find a job" isn't true.
And yet, Romney had the gall to attack Obama for "not being entitled to his own facts". And nobody is going to call him on this...