I'm trying to be a realist, so bear with me here. I know we've not gotten too many polls post-debate, but what we are seeing and hearing is not good. Rasmussen has gone from 49-47 Obama to Romney up by the same amount. His job approval is still at 50, so that is not so bad. But I have a good idea that the polling over the next week will really be a downer for those of us here who want a second Obama term.
Many of us can point to Friday's job numbers, but I don't think they are the game changer that the debate was. There are not 60 million voters on their computers waiting for those numbers. And even if there were, it wouldn't amount to nearly as much as the debacle on Wednesday night. I have the same feeling now as I did in 2004 on the day of the Iowa caucus, when Howard Dean let out the scream heard round the world. I (and so many other friends) devoted so many hours (and lots of money) to his campaign, and saw it build so that he was correctly viewed as the prohibitive front runner. The scream changed the campaign for good. When we were all watching it, I just left the room and muttered to myself "it's all over." My friends were not so sanguine but, sadly, I turned out correct. I don't see Wednesday night in the same way, but it's still not good. Obama better be on his game in two weeks, or it will be bleak.
As Nate Silver said the other night, he thought Obama was up by a touchdown and Romney kicked a field goal. I think that was too generous to Obama. My football view of things is that Obama had the ball, with the good guys ups by 10. Obama threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. Obama now up by 3. On the ensuing kickoff, Obama fumbled and Romney recovered on the Obama 30 yard line. So, Romney has the ball, down 3, looking to tie or take the lead.
That's just how I see it. We can't overestimate the opportunity lost on Wednesday. If Obama had shown up ready to play, the debate would have been a draw or at best a modest win for Romney. Romney would have received little if any bump, and with the good news on Friday, this thing would have been over. In football terms, Obama would have punted the ball, and Romney would have it on his own 15 yard line, with 6 minutes to go in the game, down 10.
10:09 AM PT: Gallup confirms the trend: JA -4 from yesterday; horserace -2 from yesterday. All still on Obama's side, but tomorrow a huge day for him rolls off, so he might go negative on JA (and horserace too). But, on the other hand, we may see some positive uptick from the jobs report.