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Was 50-45.  Make of it what you will.


Gallup by Monday:

17%63 votes
17%63 votes
12%44 votes
15%56 votes
14%52 votes
6%24 votes
3%11 votes
6%24 votes
4%16 votes

| 353 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  That seems ok for Gallup, they had it tied just (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    karmsy, Bob Duck, Smoh, doroma

    recently when pretty much everyone knew it wasn't tied, so i'm not sure what to make of them most of the time.

  •  We've seen this movie before (11+ / 0-)

    The media sets a narrative - and the polls with skewed crosstabs (that are rarely examined by those who push those polls) follow to push the narrative the media sets. We saw it with gas prices, the situation in Libya, etc..

    I'm not concerned about it. And neither should you. Obama is leading and he will continue to lead - right up to Nov 6. That's what matters.

    End of Story.

    Case Closed.

    •  So they're skewing the polls? (7+ / 0-)

      Let's not b.s. ourselves folks, the debates hurt President Obama.  Hopefully the unemployment rate going below 8 percent will help offset that.  But whatever the case, President Obama did himself no favors on Wednesday, which however way you try to spin it is not good a month before the election.

      The President needs to dismantle Romney in the next debate to truly remove any impressions from the first debate that may have resonated with the public.  And I believe he will do just that.

      “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

      by puakev on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:34:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So now you're all surprised (0+ / 0-)

        that RW polling outfits can manipulate their crosstabs?

        The same thing happened earlier this year with the gas prices narrative when Romney was having difficulty wrapping up the GOP nomination and he needed a shot in the arm to push him over - the Obama's doomed narrative with the accompanying polling to match.

        •  Manipulating cross tabs (5+ / 0-)

          is exactly the argument that the crazy Unskewed Polls people have been making.  Stop deluding yourself.  Dealing with reality doesn't mean that we've given up or think Obama's going to lose now.  It means we want him to do better, to make the adjustments he needs to kick Romney's ass in the next debates.  Because if he loses, we're all going to lose as well.

          I only hope the President is listening to people grounded in hard realities and not those telling him that everything's just dandy, that he did splendidly on Wednesday, and that it's all just a media conspiracy.  Because if he believes that, he's in trouble and by extension so are we.

          “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

          by puakev on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:25:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wrong, this is Gallup, not Rasmussen. nt (0+ / 0-)
    •  Hopefruit - the MSM wants a close race (0+ / 0-)

      and will do all they can to manufacture one.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 03:51:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm worried that the debate... (8+ / 0-)

    is having a much bigger effect than the jobs numbers.

  •  This is only 2/7ths of the 7 day ave. (9+ / 0-)

    It's a 7 day moving ave. so the post debate only covers 2/7ths of the results.

    I hope that yesterday was a turning day for the debate bounce, so Romney should climb for a day or 2 more, than we should start seeing him fall back.

    From the other polls, it looks like Romney is getting a 4-5 point bounce.  The Obama campaign has to work hard to make sure the bounce doesn't last.

    Biden can do a lot in the next debate.

    •  Fact-checking Romney in the debate (6+ / 0-)

      will also have an impact on the overall polling numbers.  Obama is already on the air in swing states with ads refuting Romney's "facts," and I'm sure we'll hear more about those in the second and third debates.

      Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
      ¡Boycott Arizona!

      by litho on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:26:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nate Silver made a very interesting observation (8+ / 0-)

      about some of the state polls that swung strongly for Romney.

      The We Ask America polls, for instance, had a lot of voters who identified as Republican in their samples. I don’t think there’s necessarily anything wrong with that — I’d rather that pollsters give the most honest snapshot of what they were finding in the field on the day that they conducted their interviews. Part of the reason that critiques about “oversampling” Democrats or Republicans are misguided is because the party identification breakouts themselves provide interesting information. It’s logical to conclude, for instance, that Republicans may have been especially likely to respond to pollsters after Mr. Romney’s strong debate performance. That would also explain why Mr. Romney’s bounce was more modest in the Rasmussen Reports polls, as they weight their samples by party identification (a poor methodological choice, in my view), which may dampen the enthusiasm effect.

      There is another type of polling bias, however, which is potentially more relevant when there is polling after a major development in the news cycle. Namely, polls are very probably biased toward high-information voters who take more interest in the news and are more likely to respond to political surveys. This issue may be more profound in automated polls, which have especially low response rates — often only 3 or 4 percent of the people they call respond to them.

      Have you googled Romney today?

      by fou on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:29:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  one point is basically noise (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, litho, ddn, doroma

    The only way this result would be meaningful is if you expected the change to be greater.

  •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Smoh, KJB Oregon

    Biden will make quite a difference - look who he has as his opponent.

  •  theres definitely a bounce for romney (8+ / 0-)

    I don't think anyone can deny that. PPP hinted that romney made gains in their WI poll but the question is now how is his bounce? Obama's approval is at 50-45 for the three day average. Someone had a good post yesterday on  Gallups trackers and was able to tell the exact amount approval per day. I think that would be very informative in trying to figure out how big the bounce.

    Regardless, all this means is we have to keep working and can't be complacent. The race is no longer in the bag as it was before. It's not exactly a horse race yet but were gonna need to work extremely hard going forward. We absolutely have to make Ohio a firewall.

  •  Team Obama knew about (5+ / 0-)

    all the money they raised last month which led them to thier awful "prevent defense" debate strategy. what I"m worried about is IF a state like Pennsylvania where there has been no defining of Mitt on the air has become  in play again. The debate damadge feels real to me but it was real to W in 2004 and he beat us with base turnout and relentless ads. Right now I'd sign for 270 e votes any way we can get them.

    After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

    by nevadadem on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:24:21 AM PDT

  •  7-day polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In a way, these polls that cover seven days are kind of maddening, since I believe only two (or maybe three) days in this one are post-debate, while all the others were conducted before the debate (and the jobs numbers come to think of it).

    So I don't know how reflective they are of "game-changing" events (if the debate turns out to indeed be one, for instance).

    I realize that they are supposed to keep some kind of stability in the race and not be oversensitive to temporary bumps and such, but I'm not sure having a poll in which the majority of it was done before a particular event is very indicative of where the race stands at the moment.

  •  I don't mean to be the diary police here (7+ / 0-)

    But this really isn't a diary.  This is a comment.  

    Check out my new blog:

    by SoCalLiberal on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:26:50 AM PDT

  •  Gonna get worse (4+ / 1-)

    before it gets better.


    by GOPGO2H3LL on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:27:43 AM PDT

  •  know more tomorrow (3+ / 0-)

    Romney had a great polling day on Thursday. Not sure that the jobs number have that much of an effect. 67 million people saw Romney shine, a lot of people who don't pay attention to the news.
    Hopefully this bounce is short lived. If Obama does poorly in the second debate  I think he will lose.

  •  Temporary..... (7+ / 0-)

    Romney made a good showing.  Obama didn't.  He still has 2 debates to redeem himself.

    Obama's got to be cringing.  Pride alone should be gnawing at him.  He just let Romney drag him all over the stage in front of 58 MILLION people. about humiliating.  

    •  THe Media can't let the debate go (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eglantine, Delilah

      Even today, the debate seems to be getting more coverage than the job numbers. Moreover, the positive jobs report has been countered by nutcase conservative conspiracy theories, that unfortunately, have sucked some of the air out of the job numbers in media coverage. We have got to come out swinging at the debates and otherwise, and Obama must lead the charge. Obama's debate coaches and strategists are more to blame than Obama because they should have recognized how rusty he was months ago and taken action to avert the Wednesday night debacle.

      •  The media will shift to whatever issue (7+ / 0-)

        That they can frame as being a weakness for Obama - see, it's not really about the issues, it's about President Obama, where the media is concerned.

        Had the President given a fantastic debate performance, the media would not be talking about the debates at all. The debates don't matter - they would tell us. They would be focusing on some other issue that they can use to pin on the President - like the Libya story, or something else.  If the President had given an excellent debate performance, but the unemployment number was stuck at 8%, the media would then tell us that debates don't matter, and despite Romney's lackluster performance, voters are more concerned about the economy than anything else.

        These are the kind of manipulative games played by the media and I'm just disturbed that so many so-called Democrats or Obama supporters are falling hook line and sinker for this garbage!!

        •  Oh gimme a break (6+ / 0-)

          if President Obama held his own or crushed Romney in the debate, this race would likely be over.  You talking about how this is all just being manipulated by the media is ridiculous and makes you sound like a right wing conspiracy theorist.  If the media wanted such a close race why were they talking incessantly a week ago about how Romney was finished?  I get trying to stay optimistic, but this pretending that President Obama actually did great on Wednesday and that this is all just some great media conspiracy is just ridiculous.

          And it's insulting that you refer to folks as so-called Democrats for pointing out and dealing with reality as it is.  The D stands for Democrat, not delusional.

          “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

          by puakev on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:14:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You honestly believe the media would (5+ / 0-)

            not be calling this a horse race if Obama won the debate?!?!


            You think that one strong debate performance from Obama and the media will finally start singing his praises?!

            That's laugh-out-loud funny.

            Have you googled Romney today?

            by fou on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:18:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The narrative before the debate (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              pademocrat, eglantine

              was that Romney was on the ropes.  If President Obama kicked his ass and all the snap polls showed Americans thought he kicked Romney's ass, that's what the press would've been talking about, which would've essentially reinforced the pre-debate narrative that Romney was pretty much finished.  Now if it was a draw, then the press might push the horse race angle, but since Romney won it turned into a story of not only a Romney comeback but of how President Obama was so inept at the debate.

              That's the reality.  The question is how the President regains the initiative.  Hopefully the jobs numbers will help.  A very strong 2nd debate will really help.

              “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

              by puakev on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:34:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Romney's still on the ropes. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                amsterdam, KJB Oregon

                There's the narrative and there's the electorate.  The electorate hasn't moved all year.  Romney has to do more than change the narrative.  He has to move the electorate.

                Romney has no strategy to change the electorate by any means other than changing the narrative.  He's been whining about Obama's "lying" about him all year.  Other than his credibility, people don't give a shit about Mitt Romney.  It's not about him.

                It's not about one debate either.  It's about what vision each candidate has for the direction of the country.

                Now, Obama didn't help himself with his performance, probably because he dismisses Romney and he underestimated the effect of his under-performance on the narrative.  But that's the narrative.  The narrative is not the election.

                Have you googled Romney today?

                by fou on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:42:43 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The electorate hasn't moved? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  eglantine, sharonsz

                  The polls shifted towards Obama after the Democratic convention, then tightened a little, then shifted considerably in Obama's direction after the 47% thing.  But now after the debate the polls are starting to show movement towards Romney.  So the electorate can obviously shift.  The important thing is, in a race that is fairly close, who has the momentum going into election day.  The President had it and had a chance to put Romney away but instead he let him get off the mat.  So his job from here on out is to knock Romney back on his ass.  And finish him.

                  “Th’ noise ye hear is not th’ first gun iv a revolution. It’s on’y th’ people iv the United States batin’ a carpet.” - Mr. Dooley

                  by puakev on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 12:12:22 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Obama has lead all year. Full stop. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KJB Oregon, GAS

                    There's a difference between poll fluctuations and a genuine, statistically significant, sustained lead-change for the challenger.

                    McCain was polling at over 270 EVs just after he picked Palin.  Romney hasn't gotten near that all year.  Romney has never lead in the Electoral College and it defies credulity to think that he will now.

                    Have you googled Romney today?

                    by fou on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 12:20:29 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I really hope your right..the debate has really (0+ / 0-)

                      gotten to me.

                      "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

                      by sillycilla on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 05:06:33 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  Thank you for that ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I really hate how people who point out reality and yes, true concern,  are accused of "wanting Romney to win."

      •  The Media? What about DK? (0+ / 0-)

        Let's tak a hard look at who's not letting go.

    •  Plus the fact that his campaign was beating (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fou, pademocrat, eglantine

      Romney handily...he's the one who messed it up.

      Hopefully he won't let that stand.

    •  67 Million (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fou, Supavash, pademocrat

      That's what the networks reported as the number of people who watched the debates. In the next debate, the jobs numbers will be big ammunition for him.

  •  Do not believe the polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Romney got two ex Republican Presidential candidate polling 10 points in Virgina ,they are not  on the national polls ,but  on  polls  done in Virgina     ,they are Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson ,by the way Big Lots got 20 percent off on all  purchaes Sunday,give the different   you save to your  favorite democrats

  •  I would be concerned on Wednesday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, Matt Z, pademocrat

    For whatever reason, the Gallup tracker has consistently shown Obama gaining in the Middle of the Week and Romney on the weekends. It could be that Obama's young supporters are harder to reach on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. But this movement is consistent with that overall trend.

    I get the feeling that the debate didn't do much to undermine Obama's support. But it did firm up Romney's support--I think it did a lot to soothe the angry Ron Paul supporters, who were sitting on the sidelines and causing Romney to appear weaker than he actually was. So I think the poll moves back to 48/47 either way, but by midweek gets tracking back in Obama's direction. If it doesn't, then there is cause for concern...but not over the debate

    I do think the west coast gas situation matters far more (whole sale prices up by a buck in a week, gas retailing for up to $5.75, due to the third recurrence of refinery problems all happening at the same time in a year), does matter. The West has consistently been suffering under higher gas prices all year.

    •  And if Obama doesn't do anything and gas remains (0+ / 0-)

      $5.50 plus, I think you can kiss NV and CO goodbye (NV is directly effected by CA gas prices, CO less so), probably throw Oregon to Romney and it wouldn't shock me if Romney carried California. Again, nothing to do with the debate. Everything to do with consistent and severe price shocks--this one is hitting food too bc diesel is way over $5/gallon--and Obama doing absolutely nothing about it. Releasing the oil reserves is something he can do and would take some pressure off. But no.

      •  Come on here (13+ / 0-)

        Where is gas $5.50?  Oregon and California are not going to flip.  I'm pretty worried right now but if you're going to concern troll keep it within reason please.

        But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

        by thezzyzx on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:41:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  $3.89 here. PA. (0+ / 0-)

          Cats are better than therapy, and I'm a therapist.

          by Smoh on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 10:54:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Gas is $5.69 in portions of the Bay Area (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Averaging $4.169 in Reno (they get spill over effect from CA) up there. It's whole Saleing for $4.70 a gallon! Costco shut down their stations! There are fuel lines and it's a fucking mess. And it's a really big fucking deal. I was paying $3.85 a few weeks ago. I use a tank a week. At $2/gallon higher, that's $30 disposable income a week out of my pocket. It spills over into food prices too. This means I don't buy anything and the economy tanks again.

          Remember CA would be the world's seventh largest economy on its own. And it's a big part of our national numbers. They need to do something--yesterday. (The administration is pressuring, quietly because they don't want to piss off the green nuts, the Air Resources Board and the Legislature to allow importing of non-CA gas for six months).

          The surge is because CA requires a special mtbe blend to clean the air. The refinery in Richmond, CA (Bay Area) blew up 6 weeks ago, and it provided 1/5 of CA's gas. Then the Exxon one in LA had a power failure and it produces 1/3. So there's a shortage and then the speculators bid it up, whole sale prices up by a buck in a week!!!! You east coasters may not really understand, but the distances in the west are greater, public transit is poorer and this has a real impact in people's pocket books. Enron and their price spike gave us the Governator and the 2003 recall; CA in this kind of energy shock environment would be open to a Republican.

        •  Also, I think as long as gas retreats to the low4s (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pademocrat, eglantine

          By election day, Obama will probably win Nevada and Colorado and with them the election. But this is a big deal. It's a huge problem the west has been dealing with all year that he has consistently done nothing about. If Romney starts running an energy campaign where he says the President doesn't care because he did nothing, yeah I think he could win CA (Arnold did by essentially doing that on electricity in 2003).

      •  Diesel is 3.89 and regular is 3.59 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ, S F Hippie

        It's only 5.50 in fantasyland.

      •  Well, If CA and ORE Goes to Romney (0+ / 0-)

        Then you can kiss most of the blue states good bye too. It will be Reagan versus Carter all over again, and this time Minnesota will vote for Romney. I don't expect that to happen.

        Although I've become a bit nervous since the debates, expectations for Romney will be high in the next presidential debates. This will increase the odds that the next presidential debate will work in Obama's favor.

        •  No, no, it's local conditions (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Namely our third localized price shock for gas in a year that is why Romney might win out here. Nothing beyond that. I wouldn't anticipate any of the eastern states to fall. I am saying $5.70 gas in CA is a really big fucking problem that the administration has done jack shit about (earlier this summer when oil was $78 per barrel, CA gas was $4.60, while the rest of the country was in the low 3s). If he doesn't do anything and doesn't tend to the crisis in his base states, then yeah Romney could win CA on energy, and certainly NV would come along with that. This is a huge deal easterners just don't get.

          •  It is not a problem (5+ / 0-)

            It will be solved in less than a week as a refinery went off line due a power failure.

            Good grief, people, get a grip.

            •  Everybody says it's not a problem (0+ / 0-)

              But 1/4 of the country's population and drivers live in California. A $1 a gallon price spike is $720,000,000 sucked out of the national economy. It compounds bc food prices are going up due to fuel surcharges. Businesses and governments get conservative when this happens and don't hire. Time and again, we've seen higher gas prices equal higher unemployment but nobody takes it seriously. Given the way station owners run their business model, it's be two months minimum before things get back to normal. Easier for east coasters who don't have to worry about it to say!

              •  And that's $720,000,000 in a week in just CA (0+ / 0-)
                •  If you want to be concerned about (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  something, I would not waste time with temporary gas prices......

                  Take a look at the melting polar ice cap.....

                  Eff fluctuation in gas prices.....there are bigger issues.

                  This obsession with fossil fuels thast are destroying our planet.....I expect the Republicans to go there....but sheesh a liberal too?

              •  What part of temporary do you not (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                amsterdam, KJB Oregon, hester


                You are just panicking or a concern troll.

                •  I live in the West, and get this is a huge problem (0+ / 0-)

                  Temporary is easy for easterners to say. If people are finally having enough confidence and disposable income to spend again but then see it burned up in a temporary gas shock, it's a big deal. A $1.65 increase since early Septmeber is $20 a tank, so for somebody like me, that's $100 a month. Net pay hasn't increased near that amount. The IRS rate remains at $.555 a mile for reimbursement, but at $5.50/gallon, you're looking at more like $.67 per mile to operate a car. It's killing the western economy and it's a big deal.

                  •  Gawd (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KJB Oregon

                    You are not the only one who lives in the West....

                    This is a classic case of concern trolling.

                    The solution to this "gigantic" problem of yours is already in process.....

                    Or are you suggesting more drilling....perhaps in our national parks?

                    •  I am suggesting releasing the oil reserved (0+ / 0-)

                      And waiving the CA blend requirement for six months.

                      I support electric vehicle adoption (my next car will be a plug-in hybrid). And I think there are good long term solutions to the problem. But I also think that high gas prices are devastating for people on the margins of the economy and that we should do something now about them.

                  •  I live in SoCal (0+ / 0-)

                    and gawd knows we love our cars and freeways.....

                    But most everyone here has kept their cool about this....

                    Because you cite a SF paper, I am guessing you are from the Bay Area....but you don't sound like you have a Northern California sensibility.  

                    Where's the praise for BART, the distrust of fossil fuels and the concern about the melting polar ice cap?

      •  That is nonsense--gas prices in California (0+ / 0-)

        will stabilize.....

      •  Look at my name. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I can say without a shadow of a doubt that the only way Obama loses Oregon is if he's arrested and charged with a felony between now and Election Day.  If Republicans thought they had a chance here, they'd be all over this place like ants on syrup (They were in 2000 and 2004.)

      •  Even I, 'concern troll of the week,' (0+ / 0-)

        Don't buy this one, Bagof.

    •  I can't take you seriously if you think CA is goin (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      twalk, GWinkler, S F Hippie, KJB Oregon, GAS

      g to go for Romney, i just can't.


  •  Lets be clear... (0+ / 0-)

    In a 7 day sample like Gallup, we really have no idea what hind of numbers rolled OFF the polling, so it's tough to know how good the ones that rolled on are.  For all we know, Obama could have easily had a +6-8pt day roll off, and a +3 roll on.

    Insure someone could go back and look to figure out a rough estimate, but that's all it would be..

    •  Obama has been at 49%-50% since 9/19-9/25 tracking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Looking at the Gallup spreadsheet, the 9/26 report of the 9/19-9/25 7-day track is when Obama spiked from 48% to 50%. Every other 7-day span after that point has Obama at 49%-50%.

      With that level of consistency (and the 9/25 spike day rolling off), wouldn't it be relatively safe to say that there haven't been crazy positive days or crazy negative days on the tracker?  I understand that you could poll at 50% for 6 days then 43% on the 7th day and have that average out for 49% for the week, but having a consistent 10-day sample might rule something drastic like that out?  The only other way the average would stay so consistent would be for big spikes up and down to correspond rolling on and off?

  •  you shouldn't have paid attention to Markos (7+ / 0-)

    Sorry, but his diaries about no bounce for Romney were a bit misinformed and served no purpose. Of course he was going to get a bounce! I fully expect Romney to be a bit ahead come Sunday and Monday.but i also expectit won't last. The dip below 8% was major news yesterday and well see improvement for the prez mid-to-late next week. Bet on it.

  •  Ras has W. Mitt up. (0+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:11:01 AM PDT

  •  For anybody worrying about Calf gas prices (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, pistolSO, MKS

    The dramatic surge came because of a power outage Monday at a Southern California refinery reduced supply in an already fragile and volatile market, analysts said, but the refinery came back online Friday and prices were expected to stabilize by next week

  •  Isn't the key thing that O stays at 49%-50%? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, fou, Delilah, KJB Oregon

    The closing margin may show some momentum for Romney, but if Obama's numbers stay constant at 49%-50%, that's still good news.  If Romney can't peel off Obama's voters and Obama's, say, 49% stays solid, Romney would need to win undecideds by a huge margin to catch or pass.

    Obviously, it's not that easy when the electoral college comes into play, but I've heard the magic number for O is to maintain 49%-50%.

  •  It's fairly obvious, the debate is having an (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eglantine, Delilah

    impact.  The president didn't rebut the Rmoney lies when people were watching the debate and paying attention.  

    Does that mean Rmoney will win the election?  No, unless the president turns in two more crappy performances like the one he just did.  

  •  RELAX EVERYBODY! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The only person I listen to is Allan Lichtman.


    By Allan J. Lichtman

    In two previous columns, in March 2010 and June 2011, I informed Gazette readers of my early prediction for the presidential election based on the Keys to the White House. Nothing has changed in this final prediction. The Keys still point strongly to an Obama victory next month.

    The Keys to the White House are a historically based system for predicting the results of American presidential elections. I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a world-renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models.

    Retrospectively, the Keys accurately account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980. Prospectively, the keys have predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008. The Keys first predicted a Democratic victory for 2008 in an article in the journal Foresight in February 2006.

    The Keys model gives specificity to the idea that it is governance, not campaigning, that counts in these elections. It tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed the country and does not shift with events of the campaign.

    The Keys to the White House consist of 13 true-false questions that gauge the performance and strength of the incumbent presidential party. Each Key is phrased so that an answer of true always favors re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer keys are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. Obama is a predicted winner with 10 Keys in his favor and only three turned against him.

    The following 10 Keys currently favor the incumbent Democratic Party.

    -- The lack of any likely nomination challenge to President Obama secures Incumbent Party Contest Key 2.

    -- Obama’s nomination locks up Incumbency Key 3.

    -- The absence of any likely third-party challenger with a chance of winning at least 5 percent of the vote gives the Democrats the Third-Party Key 4.

    -- The economy is in a slow recovery, not a recession, gaining Short-term Economy Key 5.

    -- The enactment of the health care bill secures Policy Change Key 7.

    -- The absence of sustained, violent upheavals like those of the 1960s avoids loss of the Social Unrest Key 8.

    -- The lack of a major presidential scandal averts the loss of Scandal Key 9.

    -- The president has not suffered a major foreign policy or military failure comparable to Pearl Harbor or losing the Vietnam War, keeping Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 in line.

    -- The elimination of Osama bin Laden secures Foreign/Military Success Key 11.

    -- Mitt Romney’s lack of charisma keeps Democrats from losing the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13.

    The following three keys now count against the incumbent party:

    -- The party’s losses in the 2010 midterm elections cost it Mandate Key 1.

    -- The weak economy during Obama’s term results in the loss of Long-Term Economy Key 6.

    -- Obama has not quite regained the magic of his 2008 campaign and falls just short of gaining the Incumbent Charisma/Hero Key 12.

    As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not state-by-state results for the Electoral College. The conventional wisdom, of course, asserts that the Electoral College vote will be decided by a handful of so-called “battleground states.”

    In fact, it is the national popular vote that typically determines the outcomes in the battleground states. Since the turn of the 20th century, the national popular vote has coincided with the Electoral College vote in 27 of 28 elections (96 percent). The only exception occurred in the highly contested and controversial election of 2000.

    Focused spending and organizing in battleground states also yields minimal results, according to a study by political scientist Alan Abramowitz. He found that in 2008, Obama’s huge organizational and spending advantage in 15 battleground states netted him an average increase of just 0.8 percent of the vote above projections based on 2004 election patterns and Obama’s surge in the national popular vote.

    As goes the popular vote this year, history indicates that the electoral vote will follow, giving Obama another four years in office. Wisely, the president should use the remainder of the campaign to spell out a clear second-term vision and build a mandate for governing after the election.

    The 13 Keys to the White House: Standings, October 2012:

    Key 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (False)

    Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (True)

    Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (True)

    Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (True)

    Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (True)

    Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (False)

    Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (True)

    Key 8 (Social Unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True)

    Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (True)

    Key 10 (Foreign/Military Failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (True)

    Key 11 (Foreign/Military Success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (True)

    Key 12 (Incumbent Charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)

    Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (True)

    10 Keys true, 3 Keys false

    Prediction: Incumbent Democrats win in 2012

  •  Ramussen has Obama approval at 50% (5+ / 0-)

    That is the same sample that has Romney up by 2%.

    Two of the three days are after the debate.

    If Obama's job approval is stil at 50% in Rasmussen, then perhaps the horserace number is temporary.

  •  Wish Daily Kos had an ignore feature (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theston, amsterdam, KJB Oregon

    Its always the same 5,6 concern trolls in every polling diary who freak out every time theres any movement in romneys direction.  It wrecks every thread.

    •  Somebody stealing your pom-poms? (0+ / 0-)

      To me, what wrecks a lot of threads are people with their heads in the sand saying 'your concern is duly noted' every time we disagree with the Great Kossack Unskewing that goes on here.

      And oh yeah: saying anyone who doesn't cheer along "wants Romney to win."

  •  here ya go (0+ / 0-)

    Obviously some folks needs to watch TRMS More..

    "Moses stood up about 6'10, sez You can't close the door when the wall's caved in."

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