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I think I've figured out why the Nevada U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Senaotr Dean Heller and Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley is so close. I know what you're thinking, "Ethics Scandal!!!!" but no, that's not the issue. The Las Vegas Sun sheds some light:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/...
The Hispanic vote, 14 percent of the Nevada electorate, will be crucial in the competitive races. On Thursday, polling firm Latino Decisions released the results of a Sept. 15-21 poll of 400 registered Hispanic voters in Nevada.
Obama had the support of 78 percent of those polled, up 9 points since June. Romney’s support among Hispanic voters fell from 20 percent to 17 percent, and 5 percent of respondents in September still were undecided.
Meanwhile, Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., whom Berkley is attempting to unseat, is doing much better than the top of the ticket among the state’s Hispanic voters.
In June, the poll showed Berkley with 53 percent of the vote from Hispanics to Heller’s 30 percent. Berkley managed a more modest gain than the president from June to September, raising her support among Hispanic voters to 58 percent. - The Las Vegas Sun, 10/5/12
So Heller is actually getting a small but essential part of the Latino vote in Nevada. That small portion of the Latino vote is what's keeping his campaign alive. Plus the unlimited contribution cash from Berkley's ex-boss, Sheldon Adelson, being poured into Heller's campaign. Oh, in case you didn't know, Berkley used to work for Adelson but Adelson fired her over their opposing views towards unions:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The Las Vegas Sun also shines a light about the Latino voting electorate in Nevada:
There are 224,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Nevada, comprising 13.5 percent of the electorate — the sixth highest percentage in the country, according to the Pew Research Center.
So Heller now sees that his only chance to getting re-elected is by picking up more of the Latino vote:
A report released this week by the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce showed that in 10 states, including Nevada, just 4 percent of all campaign ad dollars went to Spanish-language media. In general, Democrats spend a greater percentage of their ad money on Spanish-language media than Republicans, but neither party’s expenditures on Spanish-language ads is proportional to the Hispanic portion of the electorate, 8 percent nationally.
Heller has bucked that trend. Heller has accounted for 55 percent of all Senate race ads on Nevada Spanish-language television. - Las Vegas Sun, 10/5/12
The Las Vegas Sun also points out that Heller didn't have to go through a real primary to secure his party's nominee. It's during the primary do Republicans have to hype up their Latino-hating immigration views:
“The broader issue for Republicans is that in the primaries they get dragged so far right on these issues (of immigration),” said UNLV political scientist David Damore, who was part of a forum Wednesday at the university analyzing the poll results. “That’s all they care about, and they’re not thinking about what comes next.”
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So Heller thinks because he hasn't had to show his true colors on immigration, he can successfully win over enough Latino voters to help him pull out a narrow victory. But Berkley is fighting back and plans to smash Heller's hopes of duping Latinos into voting for him:
http://www.lvrj.com/...
Rep. Shelley Berkley on Thursday accused her Senate opponent, U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, of having an "election year epiphany" in presenting himself as a moderate, including by reaching out to Hispanic voters despite what she calls an anti-immigrant record.
"He may talk the talk, but he doesn't walk the walk, and he never has," said Berkley, D-Nev., adding that Heller didn't start courting Hispanics until the Republican needed their votes this year. "All of a sudden, he discovered the Latino community." - Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/4/12
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Berkley knows that winning doesn't just rely on riding President Obama's coattails in order to win over Latino voters. It takes hard work and smart campaigning, both of which she has been doing heavily:
Berkley said it's clear Heller doesn't care about the community, and she used his opposition to the DREAM Act to hammer her point home. She voted for the DREAM Act, and Heller voted against it.
"There's no excuse for it," Berkley said. "The reality is when he had a chance to vote for it, he choose not to."
Berkley said undocumented youth brought to the United States as children have lived here for years and now "are fearful that they may not be able to stay here and stay with their families."
In June, President Barack Obama erased that immediate fear by ordering his administration not to deport such young illegal immigrants and to offer two-year work permits so they can start earning a living as well. - Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/4/12
Berkley has been making the DREAM Act a real campaign issue and it's a great issue to bring up:
A new study Berkley touted concluded passage of the DREAM Act could create 20,000 jobs in Nevada and 1.4 million jobs nationwide. It was conducted by the Center for American Progress, a progressive public policy group run by former Democratic members of the administrations of Obama and former President Bill Clinton. - Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/4/12
What's really interesting is how Heller has tried to keep his latino voter outreach activity very low key:
Chandler Smith, a spokeswoman for Heller's campaign, said the senator has been attending or sending representatives to Hispanic forums to make a pitch to vote for him so Republicans can improve the economy.
Heller sent Jafet Santiago, his Hispanic outreach coordinator, to a Hispanics in Politics candidate forum on Tuesday night, and he addressed the gathering in Spanish. His family is originally from Mexico.`
"Dean understands that the role of our government should be to give an equal opportunity to be successful but also have a safety net for those struggling to make ends meet," Santiago told the forum.
Berkley attended the Hispanics in Politics forum herself, and her campaign criticized Heller for not making it in person. Heller's campaign said he had a scheduling conflict and sent Santiago instead.
Heller also can't accept an Oct. 14 invitation from several Hispanic pastors because of his schedule. But he is working with Pastor Mario Rodriguez to find another Sunday to meet with members of his congregation, Smith said. - Las Vegas Review-Journal
I'm going to take a wild guess on why Heller has been low key in trying to court the Latino vote. He doesn't want to piss off his anti-immigration base while at the same time trying to court a decent percentage of Latinos to secure his re-election. Berkley knows that Heller can't hype up his anti-immigration voting record while trying to win over Latinos. Plus here's an interesting fact from the latest poll regarding Latino voters in Nevada:
Only 16 percent of Latinos polled identified themselves as Republicans, however, while 55 percent of those surveyed said they were registered Democrats. The rest said they were nonpartisan or didn't know. _ Las Vegas Journal-Review, 10/4/12
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So Democrats have the edge in voter registration amongst Latino voters in Nevada. If Berkley keeps hitting Heller for voting against the DREAM Act and that he will contribute to the GOP's anti-immigration agenda, the race is her's to win. Berkley has been heavily campaigning in Nevada's heavy Latino areas and they will be the one who will design this election. Heller should be worried too because Latino's are noticing his lack of appearances in campaign events held by the Latino community:
Latin Chamber of Commerce President Otto Merida has endorsed Berkley, saying he has known her for years as the seven-term congresswoman representing Southern Nevada, where most of the states's population and Latinos live.
Heller, a former congressman based in Northern Nevada, isn't well-known in the Hispanic community, Merida said.
"He's been missing in action," said Merida, who hasn't forgiven Heller for canceling a meeting with the Latin Chamber of Commerce last year at the last minute.
But Merida, a registered Republican, has endorsed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, although Romney and Heller share many of the same positions on the DREAM Act and immigration. - Las Vegas Journal-Review, 10/4/12
There are split ticket voters in Nevada and Merida is a great example. There are split ticket voters in states like Arizona, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, West Virginia and North Dakota who will vote for Romney over Nevada but these voters really don't like their GOP Senate candidates and they believe that a Democratic Senate will work better with Romney as President. They are wrong to believe that but there's no use persuading these type of voters. Berkley can win these voters and campaign with President Obama because voters like Merida dislike guys like Dean Heller more than the President so they won't change their minds about who to vote for in the Senate. It's the undecided voters who Berkley needs to get and by both making the DREAM Act an election issue and campaigning with Obama, she'll be able to win them over. Lets help her do so. We need another supporter of the DREAM Act in the Senate and there is no other strong supporter of the DREAM Act running for Senate this year than Shelley Berkley:
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