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When I become anxious about the election, I do 3 basic things. ( as face it, during an election cycle, we all have moments of doubts, fears , or even some small periods of anxiety.  The major factor is limiting that fear and anxiety to hours or a day or two vs fear that can cripple, slow us down, and anxiety that zaps our energy and last for days or weeks )

1. GOTV and volunteering at OFA offices and meeting places. There is nothing like it.
You can receive encouragement, and support from other volunteers for the Obama campaign.  There is strength in numbers and the sharing of common goals increases our energy and decreases our anxiety.

I am an old Veteran of GOTV for Democrats. I first became involved in 1976 in the Carter campaign vs Ford.
It was such a rewarding experience that I became Hooked and I have continued every 2 years since doing some work for the local, state, federal Democratic candidates for office.  

2. Phonebanking..taking action helps counteract any feeilngs of anxiety one may have. I find as I become more involved, and do all I can to help, those feelings of stress melt away.   As I find myself becoming more confident and strengthened through talking to other voters and encouraging them to vote.

3.  Checking out the Electoral Math and Playing around with the Numbers.  I did this Wednesday night because I was unable to do GOTV work late at night and into the wee hours of the morning, Thursday.

The Bottom Line is....the Electoral Math still heavily favors the President in good times and in bad. More below.....the cute little DKos squggly...

I know some are disappointed because this Election might be closer than we hoped for. I know some are thinking the debate performance of the President may make it harder for this election to be the Hoped for Landslide.

We might not get the Tsunami for the President and Democrats but we could very well  still get some Significant Wins down ticket and the President can very well win a second term.   There are still 3 debates ahead and anything can happen to turn this around,.  The job numbers and other factors may indeed play a vital role in limiting Mr. Romney's expected bounce.  

I think I am also writing this diary, not for concern trolls, but for everyone no matter where they are in their heads about this upcoming election.  For me, it gives me renewed energy and for some , it may offer some hope, and for others, it will validate what they all ready know. I realize some will be irritated with me for writing this diary because they will think I am being overly anxious or trying to appease the handwringers. But , I often believe there are handwringers out there that will not admit that they have an hour here for there, or a few minutes now and again, where they feel anxious and wring their hands ..oh for a little bit.

But below, I have outlined several paths to Victory, in Good times and in Bad, when polling is good for the President , and when the Polling is Lousy.

Ok let us go with some lousy first and get that out of the way.

 He needs 270 to win as everyone knows. I have mapped out that scenario.

1.. The States the President can Lose and Still win the Election with 271.
He can lose: Fl, NC, VA, CO, IN,  and even Wisconsin and reach 271,,,a Win.

2. Same Formula as Number 1 but add Wisconsin for 281.

3. Same Formula as Number I plus add Wisconsin and Colorado....290.

4. Same Formula as Number I but add Virginia.....303.

5. Now subtract VA but Add FL...319

6.  Subract Colorado.... 310.

7.  Add Wisconsin, Subtract OH and FL but add Colorado  ...272

The States I watch above all others are...Ohio, Nevada,  New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado. I think the Firewall consists of ...Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio should things not go well in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin.

Or should things not go well in Ohio but work out in Wisconsin and Colorado

Electoral Math is Fun and It helps to Chase away the Anxiety and Chase away the Fears.

As a newsaper reporter from the Capitol News in Harrisburg PA said on PCN on Friday evening....

The Electoral Map heavily favors the President and other Democratic Candidates for President in the future.
I am hanging onto to that and also increasing my GOTV.
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Comment Preferences

  •  This is the right diary for the (6+ / 0-)

    right moment.  

    I love the excerpt you chose to drive home the point(s):

    "The Electoral Map heavily favors the President and other Democratic Candidates for President in the future."

  •  Unless I am mistaken RMoney.............. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jplanner

    must almost run the table of ALL closely contested states to get to 270. Unless something bigger than Willard lying his way through the debates (partially offset by the latest positive economic news); BHO is still in good shape to win re-election.

    Of course, closer polls in certain swing states could make stealing that state's EVs more of a possibility. We need to pour all our efforts and resources into those critical states to ensure a "theft proof" margin; if there is such a thing.

    The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation--HDT

    by cazcee on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 10:06:33 AM PDT

    •  Yes a much harder road to 270 for Mittens and for (0+ / 0-)

      that matter, any Republican candidate in the future, too.

      As we work to make more states blue, the climb for the GOP is tougher.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:04:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  At talkingpointsmemo.com -- (5+ / 0-)

    -- right in the middle of the page, there is a PollTracker  always displayed.  It contains the current electoral count -- right now it's 294 Obama v 191 Romney.  Also shown is Popular Vote, now Obama +2.3 (48.6 v 46.3).  It also shows likely Dem Senate wins at 53D v 44R.

    I'm not a stats geek, and wouldn't have a clue about finding the data and doing the math as you do.  But the TPM widget gives me current info at a glance.

    And even though the Popular vote for Obama is down a little from last week (if memory serves, it was +3.5 last week as opposed to +2.3 today) the Electoral vote numbers have not changed.

    I'm sure if you poke around at TPM you can find deeper detail about polls.  But if all you need is a 'nowcast', try TPM.

    Actually, Mitt, I AM entitled to food.

    by CroneWit on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 10:09:28 AM PDT

    •  Thanks Crone, I always experiment and play around (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CroneWit, science nerd

      with Polls at 270towin. com

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:05:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Speaking of TPM's PollTracker, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      I always like to go the pull-down menu and eliminate Ras from their aggregate. If we also remove Clarus' one-day result that actually gives Romney a one-point lead (!) from the calculation, the spread from 2.3 (48.6 - 46.3) to 4.2 (49.9 -45.7).  Is it "fair" to make those changes? Well, I think we all know about Rasmussen's reputation for oversampling Republicans, and, as for Clarus, well...call me Jack Welch, but it just doesn't smell right. I'm taking a mulligan on that one, and kicking it out of the rough.

  •  Facts are like a warm fuzzy blankie n/t (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, wishingwell, science nerd
  •  Obama wins Ohio , he wins (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, wishingwell

    I wouldn't even worry about all this, if Obama wins Ohio he wins the election because if Ohio is voting for Obama all the swing states Romney would need to win would not go his way.
    In fact it looks like he is kind of writing off Ohio and depending on Florida to somehow win.,

    •  We have friends in NE Ohio and SE Ohio. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      They are saying Kasich and Mandel are not terribly popular, and that Sherrod Brown and the President are looking pretty good.

      That's just shop talk, but it doesn't really look like Romney's Ohio chances are good, based on the serious polling.  

      Agree -- if Obama wins Ohio, Romney's goose is pretty much cooked.

  •  I've got... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    ..a question:

    Why is New Hampshire always listed as a critical swing state when it has only 4 electoral votes?

    Not only that, I don't care what you polls are saying currently, you know good & well Obama is going to win New Hampshire.

    Anyway, I get tired of reading about the dramatic importance of NH when it barely offers enough electoral votes be an election day participant.

    FOX News = where David Axelrod spends his every Sunday morning legitimizing the illegitimate.

    by wyvern on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 11:23:40 AM PDT

    •  I think it is because polls may be off with NH (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jplanner

      Every election cycle , it is listed as swing state.

      I think because Bush won it in 2000 but since then, it has gone blue for Kerry and Obama.

      I think NH going Bush 12 years ago started the pollsters thinking it was a true swing state.

      But I toss in NH to add to CO, NV,IA  ..also states with few electoral voters compared to the big ones.

      4 pts does not seem like much but it can make a difference as a firewall if you combine with Iowa, Nevada, Colorado or any of these combos.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:11:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Two words. Al Gore. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, EcosseNJ

      If Al Gore won New Hampshire he would have been elected president. That's how important New Hampshire is.

      I post, therefore I am.

      by TomK1960 on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 03:16:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True, but I thought Al needed two small states (0+ / 0-)

        Like NH and NV for instance?  

        Gore not winning his home state of TN really hurt as he would have needed Florida if he got his home state of TN as Clinton won TN twice, I think.  

        I think Florida would not have factored in had Gore won NH and TN or NH and NV

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 04:16:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Another way to look at this is ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    ... if Obama loses both Florida (29) and Ohio (18), he has to pull off a heckuva victory.

    I think he will win at least one of those two.

    -  If he wins Florida, it's game over, because any other of the iffy states will put him comfortably past 271.
    - If he wins Ohio but loses Florida - for God's sake, Mr. President, let's not have any more TV debate concessions like, "We're not that far apart on Social Security"! - then he has to get 16 more electoral votes. No single one of the iffy states that are left will get him 16 EVs, but several combinations will, such as North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) or Wisconsin (10) and any other one iffy state.

    270 to win has a great interactive map, with an array of possibilities for both candidates although (like all these projections based just on numbers) several are pretty improbable. Fortunately, as our diarist points out, the improbabilities in 2012 pretty much cut against Mitt Romney.

    Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

    by TRPChicago on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 11:37:15 AM PDT

    •  That is what I use and one of my scenarios shows (0+ / 0-)

      what happens if the President loses Wisconsin  and Florida but keeps Ohio or if he loses OH and FL but keeps Wisconsin,

      The firewall last chance is say he loses FL and OH but keeps Wisconsin or loses WI/ FL but keeps OH....that is where those small states like Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire come in.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:13:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, I should have spotted that. But beyond ... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        ... numbers, the political dynamics make me wonder if - as a practical matter - the factors that would cause Obama to lose Florida and Ohio might also indicate that he loses Wisconsin, for example, Iowa or Colorado. Those have different demographics, to be sure, but they all watch TV and cable and could be bombarded with targeted ads.

        I agree that he's secure in some of your "firewall" states, but if he loses either Florida or Ohio, the race morphs into a hard slog for the president.

        Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

        by TRPChicago on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:48:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes I see 281 as the more realistic low number (0+ / 0-)

          With the President winning Wisconsin , Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire but maybe losing all the southern states like Fl, NC,  VA and maybe even losing CO.

          I see Ohio and Wisconsin differently than Florida. I could be wrong.  But I think the dynamics may be different and the polling has been overall better in OH and WI.

          Of course, as the diary says there are many roads to victory for Obama and only one or two paths and narrow ones for Mitt.

          If like the last election, Ohio is anounced in the Obama campaign before Florida is. I will much more confident.
          And then Florida is not an absolute to win.

          And I will be looking closely at Wisconsin, Ohio and then the firewall states particularly if things do not pan out in the southern states like FL, NC or VA.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 12:59:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  My formula: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    As I see it, there are three key tasks to Electoral Victory.  Obama must do one of the following to win:

     1. Win Florida
     2. Win Ohio
     3. Win two of these three: Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin

    Romney must do all three.

    (I'm leaving NC and IN in Romney's column, and NH, IA and NV in Obama's.)

    I think Obama can do one of those three things.  But I'd love to see some polls this coming midweek that confirm it.

    •  Yes I have my doubts about the Pres winning (0+ / 0-)

      NC and I think Indiana is gone if polling is correct.

      North Carolina was very close the last time around , in an election year where energy and enthusiasm was very very high.  So for a while now, I have had my doubts about 3 states, those being Indiana, North Carolina and the third being Virginia.  I hope I am wrong about VA and I may be very wrong.

      Ever since 2000, I am never sure about Florida for any election, no matter the office.  But that is just my Florida PTSD. LOL.

      So sometimes when I mess with the electoral map, I take NC, IN,  VA, and put it in the red column and go from there.  

      As I said above, I am more confident about the following states...IA, OH, WI, NV, NH..and much less confident about NC, FL, VA.

      Let's put it this way, for me personally, North Carolina and Virginia would be Icing on the Cake if the President wins what I call the Kerry Blue states plus Iowa, WI, OH..It is ALL about the Midwest.

      To me, the Midwest and West will tell the story.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 04:23:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I recall being excited when NH went for Kerry (0+ / 0-)

    as it had gone to Bush before.  So , I then expected NV and CO to follow and they did not and neither did Iowa...those were shockers for me that year..I really expected Kerry to do better in Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. ...but I wonder if he spent too much time in Florida and  Ohio, NH and PA and not enough time out west in CO, NV and back to Iowa, the state that gave him his start to the nomination.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 04:25:39 PM PDT

    •  but, to remind you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      if I am correct a very large percentage of voters in NH are in the southern part of the state and many work in MA. Some people don't get this but there is a "greater new england" feel up here and Boston feels somewhat like the capital in some ways (think "New England Patriots" even though they  play in MA).

      I am not saying NH residents do not draw a stark contrast.

      But that the Boston media market includes S. NH, many people in S.NH work in MA and KNEW Kerry as someone to be trusted

      Though not a home state advantage, MA native politicians are well known in NH. It is SIGNIFICANT therefore if Romney looses NH and Kerry' s win was partly effected by the fact that he's been a Senator to their direct south for decades. They know him as thoughtful, steady, and reasonable. Because he's been that way.

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