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Current as of 10/06/12
One of the more interesting polls I've been watching this time around is the Rand tracking poll which tracks the voting preferences of the same 3500 people over time. The poll is a rolling average over seven days. While I wouldn't say this is a perfectly scientific poll (people drop in and out of the electorate for all sorts of reasons), I think it does capture something with respect to general trends. I think it captures the sentiments pretty well of those who truly move back and forth between the candidates.

From this poll so far, I take away two things:

1. Romney got a bump, but not nearly the bump he needed to turn the tide built against him.

The way this poll works is that 1/7th of the 3500 are polled each day. Over the last three days Obama went from about 50 to 49. Romney went from 44 to 45. A two point shift? Meh.

2. Yesterday's response indicates to me the bump is already subsiding.

Romney's goal in that debate was to avoid being written off by his fundraisers and the media. That goal was accomplished due to the lack of contest from Obama. That wont happen again. Romney will live on, but the same questions that dogged him before the debate (can he win?) will begin to dog him again after his small bump recedes.

We will begin to see on Tuesday how the national and swing state picture looks. I suspect they will all report Romney gains, but not significant enough gains to give him a path to victory. Modest gains methinks. As for the President, I think he will give back a point or two and then hold steady as people wait to see the next debate. Perhaps, with the good unemployment number, he main even get back to 50 prior to the debate.

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