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I have to write this diary prior to Election Day, because retirements start pretty soon after.  What I'm going to do is rank every Senator's likelihood of retirement from 1 (no chance) to 5 (almost guaranteed).  Then I'll post a list of what I think are the 20 representatives most likely to retire and not run for another office.

* (running again):
Entire freshman class, which I won't bother listing, except for Mark Warner.

Saxby Chambliss, R-GA:
Chambliss has already announced he'll run again.  This seat should be Safe R.

Mitch McConnell, R-KY:
No way he'll retire with a majority in sight.

John Cornyn, R-TX:
He hasn't shown any signs of retirement.

* (likely running again):

Jeff Sessions, R-AL:
67 is young in Senate terms, and he won't even have to campaign.

Tom Harkin, D-IA:
He will face a tough challenge, according to recent polling, but he seems like too much of a fighter to retire.

Mary Landrieu, D-LA:
Her popularity has recovered, and she's been fundraising.

Max Baucus, D-MT:
Has also announced he's running again.  No top tier GOP challenger waiting in the wings, which should help him with his decision.

Jack Reed, D-RI:
Any senator who can't receive Social Security yet and is in a safe seat is at least likely to run again.

Lindsey Graham, R-SC:
Relatively likely to lose his primary, but he's probably not going to retire.

John Kerry, D-MA:
Assuming he doesn't become SoS, he'll probably run for yet another term.

Pat Roberts, R-KS:
Been around awhile, but no indication he's thinking about retirement.

Susan Collins, R-ME:
She'll win if she runs.  If Brown loses, she'll be the most moderate senator by quite a bit, followed by Murkowski.

** (50-50)

Dick Durbin, D-IL:
Rumor has it he doesn't have the votes to become party leader when Reid retires, likely in 2016.  In that case, he may hang it up.  I hope he doesn't, because our bench in Illinois is incredibly weak right now. Tilts Retirement.

Thad Cochran, R-MS:
He's been around forever, and as he saw with Dick Lugar, being around forever certainly doesn't guarantee you'll win your primary.  It does guarantee apostasies, however.  He's no Tea Partier and is more in the Lamar Alexander school than, say, the Jeff Sessions one.  Mississippi's runoff system makes a primary loss even more likely.  Top candidates to succeed him should he retire include Auditor Stacey Pickering (from the Lynn Westmoreland/Lindsey Graham school of Southern Republicans You Thought Were Women), SoS Delbert Hosemann (who would clearly have the greatest name of any senator short of Sheldon Whitehouse), and Tea Partying State Senator Chris McDaniel.

Jim Inhofe, R-OK:
Also been around a decent amount of time and not young.  He hasn't announced he'll run in 2014.  Possible successors could include Governor Mary Fallin, as none of Oklahoma's Representatives appear likely to run.  Then again, he could stay on, hoping to chair the Environmental Committee (shudder).

Mark Pryor, D-AR:
Rep. Tim Griffin should give him a strong challenge, but the Pryor name and Pryor himself are still popular in Arkansas.  We'll see if he pulls a Mike Ross or not.  Either way, he isn't Blanche Lincoln.

** (I think they'll retire, but it's not for sure)

Carl Levin, D-MI:
Some think he's a Senate lifer, but I think he retires this time around, to be succeeded by Gary Peters, who's been backed by the Black establishment for what has to be SOME reason.  Republicans don't have any strong candidates here; the representatives are too old or too conservative.

Mark Warner, D-VA:
He's leaning toward running for Governor in 2013, in which case I think this seat is Bob McDonnell's for the taking.

*** (I'd bet money they retire)

Frank Lautenberg, D-NJ:
Lautenberg will be over 90, and with a Republican governor, that's very risky in the event he dies.  Also, he'll be over 90! Why wouldn't he want to retire?  He retired once before. And his wife is still alive, so he does have family left.

Tim Johnson, D-SD:
He's in poor health and former Gov. Mike Rounds has already indicated he'll run.  I don't think it'd be a coronation like John Hoeven's race was, but Johnson isn't really up to running the vigorous campaign he'd need to.

Mike Enzi, R-WY:
He nearly retired in 2008.  Rep. Cynthia Lummis or Gov. Matt Mead are next in line.  Or Liz Cheney, I guess.

Jay Rockefeller, D-WV:
After slamming the coal industry, Rockefeller is clearly retiring.  Former Acting Sen. Carte Goodwin, SoS Natalie Tennant, or a number of other Democrats could run.  My guess is they'd face Rep. David McKinley, who is an incredible fundraiser, in a tough race.

The House:

Likely to Run for Higher Office:
As already mentioned, Gary Peters, D-Detroit; Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming; David McKinley, R-West Virginia; and Tim Griffin, R-Little Rock, will all likely run in this scenario.  I'd also guess Tim Ryan, D-Youngstown, runs for Governor, and Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, runs for Senate.

Formerly Primaried, Now Retiring:
These Representatives are scared after nearly losing primaries and want to go out with (some) dignity.
Pete Stark, D-Bay Area (provided he wins in November).  Rich Dude Ro Khanna and Stark-anoited successor is probably running in 2014 whether Stark wins or loses, as Stark would retire in that case.  St Sen. Ellen Corbett also wants the seat.

Charlie Rangel, D-Manhattan/Bronx nearly lost his primary this year and would likely lose provided there was only one opponent.  

Personal Issues, Health or Otherwise:

Ruben Hinojosa, D-South Texas has filed for bankruptcy.  I expected him to retire this year and he didn't, so who knows.

Jesse Jackson, Jr., D-Chicago has mental health issues and will likely retire or be primaried after being absentee for so long and straight up disappearing.

Dave Camp, R-Rural Central Michigan recently was diagnosed with cancer.  Often, that in and of itself causes a complete reassessment of one's priorities, even though he's likely to survive.

Rumors of Retirement Previously:

Danny Davis, D-Chicago retired and then unretired in 2010.  At some point, he will actually retire.

Other Members over age 65 who may retire:

Sander Levin, D-Detroit Suburbs, will likely retire the same year his brother Carl does.  Which means possibly in 2014.

Buck McKeon, R-Lancaster/Santa Clarita is old and his time as Chair of Armed Services is up.

David Price, D-Research Triangle, who I think has a deal with Rep. Brad Miller that Miller would retire for one term and then succeed him rather than challenge him in a primary.

Mike Simpson, R-Eastern Idaho, who consistently beats back Some Dudes in primaries but could lose if faced with an actual elected official due to his non-adherence to the Norquist Pledge.

Joe Pitts, R-Lancaster and Sam Johnson, R-Dallas Suburbs, because they're just plain old.

Alcee Hastings, D-South Florida, Phil Gingrey, R-Atlanta Suburbs, Ed Whitfield, R-Western Kentucky, Rodney Alexander, R-Rural Louisiana, Jim Moran, D-NoVa, Tom Petri, R-Central Wisconsin, Bobby Rush, D-Chicago, and Collin Peterson, D-Western Minnesota, just because it's rare for fewer than 20 Reps to retire.

So there's my list...what's yours?

Poll

Which Senator is most likely to retire?

2%6 votes
22%65 votes
50%146 votes
1%3 votes
0%0 votes
0%2 votes
2%8 votes
15%44 votes
2%8 votes
1%5 votes

| 287 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (19+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 04:05:11 PM PDT

  •  depends upon outcome this year (6+ / 0-)

    if Republicans actually lose the House, expect Frank Wolf VA-10 to retire  - he did not like being the minority before.  He is now 73, and has been in the House since the election of 1980.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 04:38:58 PM PDT

  •  Illinois bench (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, NM Ward Chair, bumiputera

    I agree, of course, that the bench is weak, but, Tammy Duckworth would make a phenomenal candidate.  Her speech at the Democratic Convention this year really touched my heart.  She committed to public service as a way to thank the guys on her helicopter, who, after they were shot down, they wouldn't leave her behind.  To hear her tell it is quite impressive.  

  •  I wrote a diary on this subject (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    a while back, asking people for their thoughts. Another one I thought about that I didn't see in your diary is Ralph Hall, who is ancient. I tried to think of a joke to explain how old he is, but none were coming, and none would actually do it justice. He is that old.  Also, Henry Waxman, Ed Markey, Howard Coble, Bill Young, John Dingell, John Conyers, Louise Slaughter, Fred Upton, Peter DeFazio, & Luis Gutierrez. Those were all names featured in the comments.

    Oh and one more thing-In my opinion, Pete Stark's retirement won't be necessary. Know why? Because he's gonna lose in November. His opponent has turned the exact same playbook he used against George Paul Miller in 1972, against him. And it's a brilliant strategy to do so.

    18, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

    by Danny Ricci on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 05:08:49 PM PDT

    •  My thoughts on each of those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Coble and Upton: both faced primaries; if they wanted to retire in the near future they already would have.

      Waxman, Slaughter, DeFazio: Each have faced tough races or at least had to campaign recently.  They'd have retired then if they were planning on it soon.

      Markey: He's still young.

      Dingell, Hall: I think they both want to die in office.

      Bill Young and DeFazio and Conyers are all good additions as well.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 05:25:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As a former constituent of Upton (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's really not that old and he has successfully moved rightward without losing goodwill in this slightly leftward trending district. Hoogendyk doesn't scare him at all.

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:30:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And on the subject of Michigan representatives (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think Candice Miller would definitely be interested in an open Senate seat. She's already been elected statewide (as SoS) and the national Republican party likes her a lot.

          28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:35:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Upton and DeFazio (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera, James Allen

        Upton has been around forever but will be just 61 and he's a committee chair. The party would lean heavily on him not to retire, as the seat could very well go Dem if he did.

        DeFazio will be just 67 and doesn't seem to have lost any of his energy. He reminds me of Tobias from Arrested Development.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:42:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hall is actually the oldest Rep ever (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY

      now that he beat Sidney Yates's record a month ago.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

      by GoUBears on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:13:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Peter DeFazio (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I'd heard some rumblings a couple cycles ago that he wanted to move on, but nothing since.  I'd not be surprised if he retired, but I've heard no recent indications that it's in the cards.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:26:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm pulling this one out of my nether regions ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    but Thad Cochran appears to me to be less visible than he used to be in Mississippi. He's 75 years old in December. And he's never been one for the wingnut limelight. I say he retires. It's not like the seat would go Dem ...

  •  I don't see why (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, WiscIndy, KingofSpades

    Everyone seems to think that Tim Johnson will retire. His health improved, and he won easily in 2008. I think that Rounds will only get in the race if Johnson retires, and that if Johnson doesn't retire, he'll win easily.

    Also, I don't think Jay Rockefeller will retire either. He's still pretty popular in WV, and I don't think Capito has the guts to run against a popular incumbent. If McKinley ran, I think he'd lose, because he only won narrowly in 2010, and he's probably pretty unknown in 2/3 of the state.

    Mark Pryor is only in his second term right now, and he's not very old. I don't see why he'd retire.

    I guess I'm one of the ones who thinks that Levin is a Senate lifer.

    As for Virginia, no open Senate seat is any candidate's "for the taking" (except for Mark Warner in 2008). Even if McDonnell runs, Democrats could run Tom Perriello, or Gerry Connolly, or some other well-known Democrat, and I think the election would be close.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Enzi retired, so I think you're right there.

    However, I voted for Lautenberg, simply because he's almost 90, and I could definitely see him retiring. There would certainly be an interesting Democratic primary to succeed him. If Christie is defeated in 2013, might he run for the open seat?

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 05:28:23 PM PDT

    •  responses here (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Rounds seems to want this seat no matter what.  If he waits six more years, he's irrelevant because he'll have been out of office for eight.  So this is really his only chance, as Thune isn't retiring in 2016.

      Rockefeller's attack on coal seems to me a surefire way to either make the race close or a sign of retirement, and with his seniority I'm guessing the latter.

      I think Pryor would only retire if he pulled an Evan Bayh, but he seems to be a better Democrat than Bayh.

      A governor at 55%+ approval doesn't lose a general election.

      And no, Christie is an executive through and through.  He will never be a Senator.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 06:03:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's not in Rangel's nature to leave gracefully... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ....if he wanted to win just "one more" race for "redemption" than he would've called it quits after 2008.  He'll either lose in a primary or leave in a body bag.

    Lautenberg is also a very very stubborn man.  He SHOULD retire.  90 year old cancer survivor and all.  But I can easily see him running again.

    Carl Levin also has always seemed like a "lifer" to me.

    Mary Landrieu seems like someone who could be spooked into retirement by a strong name.

    Thad and Lugar seem to be apt comparisons.  Both quite conservative and hold all the correct positions.  But are not as loud and belligerent as the base wants them to be.  It seems inconceivable that someone like Thad he is basically the father of the Mississippi Republican Party could lose.  Before him there practically was no Mississippi Republican party.  Especially given how relatively royalist Mississippi is.

    Then again there was no Republican more universally popular and for so long as Lugar.  Someone who was a mentor to a good many Republicans in the state.  But the tea party does not want a record, or accomplishments or anything of that nature.  They want bomb throwers.  Lugar is not a bomb thrower.  And while no moderate neither is Thad.

    As for Lindsay by ever right he should've been primaried last time and wasn't.  He could dodge that bullet again.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 06:03:26 PM PDT

  •  Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Circle of Ignornace) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    has had health issues and will be 71 in 2014. If anything, he's more likely to retire than Petri, as he can be sure his seat will be safe. He'd probably be succeeded by inflammatory State Senator Glenn Grothman, who will need every point of the district's R+12 PVI.

    If Petri retires and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald runs (which he probably will in such a case), the seat is vulnerable as Little Fitz is a very unlikable candidate. If she survives this year, State Senator Jessica King (D-Oshkosh) won't have to give her seat up to run for Congress and would give Fitzgerald a tough challenge (Lean R or even Tossup/Tilt R in a neutral year).

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 07:03:17 PM PDT

    •  Grothman would probably have the edge (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, fearlessfred14

      in the Primary if he ran, but if not, that seat would probably go to Leah Vukmir. In either case, we'd have someone who would continue (and possibly even increase) Sensenbrenner's tradition of embarrassing Wisconsin on the national stage on a routine basis.

      The Jess King vs. little fitz scenario you outlined would be epic. Under the old lines, I might even call it a tossup, but this district got a bit harder when the Moved Ozaukee County into the district.

      •  Hypothetical King vs. Little Fitz matchup in WI-6 (0+ / 0-)

        If you thought Big Fitz was a slimy, condescending, gaffe-prone jerk, Little Fitz is even worse. Jessica King would probably have no problem whatsoever using some of Little Fitz's past statements against him. I'd say that a matchup between King and Little Fitz would probably be Lean R at worst and Tossup/Tilt D at best.

        In regards to WI-5, we're NOT going to win that district barring a cash in the freezer-type scenario, and I highly doubt that will ever happen.

        "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 05:09:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If Perriello were appointed Senator by Warner (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    in the event of his election to the governorship, I think  McDonnell would face a really tough fight in a neutral or Dem-leaning year to take the seat. Otherwise, yeah, it's most likely his.

    •  I think Warner is running for President (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in 2016.  
      I think he probably regrets that he didn't run in 2008, assuming that Hillary Clinton was unbeatable in the Dem primary.  He's not making that mistake again.

      WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

      by WiscIndy on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 08:18:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ha. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, WiscIndy, MichaelNY

        Clinton wasn't unbeatable, obviously - but I'm pretty sure she was unbeatable by Mark Warner.

        •  You're probably right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in retrospect, Obama was probably the only one who could have beaten Hillary in 2008, by winning anti-war liberals, blacks and young people.  Perhaps Al Gore could have too, by uniting anti-war liberals and conservative/populist Democrats.  Warner would have to go after HRC in the second manner.  But Hillary's women and black base (the latter against anyone other than Obama) would probably have won her the primary against anyone else.

          I was a bit more enthusiastic about Obama in 2008 even though he was a FIB ("Fucking Illinois Bastard") and Bears fan, and voted for him in the primary and general.

          WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

          by WiscIndy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:49:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Here I have big doubts. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, OGGoldy

      At this point I think Perriello would not be enough strong for it.

      If you look at the polls for Governor 2013 Perriello has been running in the level of G Connolly and T McAuliffe. He has been losing by several points versus Bolling and in a tie with Cuccinelli. That is not enough to beat McConnell. I think not this is a safe combination, and would be very expensive for a year like 2014 that can be a hard year again.

      Perriello is a loved guy, and I think he should run for statewide office in 2013, but still not for Governor or for the Senate. I would like to see him running for Lieutenant Governor or for Attorney General if he is qualified.

      I think the safest and less expensive combination for Virginia would be:

      Warner as senator
      Kaine as senator
      Webb for governor 2013

      If Warner want to run for President the best way is to run as senator in a year were he must not run for the reelection. If he does other thing, that would generate a damage for the blue team in Virginia. No-one will run against him in VA-Sen 2014, and that is what his party need from him.

  •  Prediction- Bill Young will not retire. (0+ / 0-)

    I think it's pretty clear now he's there till he's dead. Each cycle we'll see some intense speculation about his retirement, but it will never come at this rate.

  •  It may depend on who is elected this year (0+ / 0-)

    I think if Romney is elected, someone like Jay Rockefeller would probably run again and win.  If Obama is reelected, then Rockefeller would have a more difficult time.  

    But remember, this is West Virginia, seniority and bringing home the bacon matters big time there, more than ideology.   If Rockefeller campaigns on this, he's got a decent chance to get reelected despite his coal statements.

    WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

    by WiscIndy on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 08:13:17 PM PDT

  •  Any word on the odds that Dave Freudenthal (0+ / 0-)

    might try a Senate run if Enzi retires? He's still quite popular there, and probably could have been re-elected in 2010 if he wanted.

    Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

    by Zutroy on Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 08:18:32 PM PDT

  •  I think the retirements of Durbin, Levin, Warner (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    would damage most the Democratic Party between the cited potential retirements because would open unnecessary weak points for the Democratic party. At this point the Republicans have not people that can beat them.

    Lautenberg would be the same case but the age is different and he has a lot bigger justification.

    •  DEMS have strong recruits in those states (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      w. the exception of Va. The bench their is a lil thin. I think Frank Lautenberg is not going to take any chances considering his age and who the Governor is. I believe folks like Schumer, Reid and Menendez would tell him to seek retirement. Dems shouldn't have a hard time holding this seat. Unless the Dems nominee has Torricelli esque scandal, or any scandal for that matter. Also if the Dem is not Steve Sweeney this should be an absolute safe hold.

      In Michigan, Peters or Whitmer should be able to hold this. It also would be a Governor election in '14. So I think both of them would be on the ballot, but for which office is the question.

      Virginia, if Warner runs for Gov. again it depends who he taps to fill the rest of that term. I would like to see Perriello be that person.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:40:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Price/Miller (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Have denied a deal has taken place for Price to retire next term.
    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:02:13 AM PDT

    •  i'll believe it when i see it (0+ / 0-)

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 11:41:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the problem with VA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is that the governorship is a dead end job. Its only four years long and then what? I am opposed to having senators give up their seats to run for governor unless its do destroy a gerrymander (in which case Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey and Debbie Stabenow need to run in 2018).

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:27:26 AM PDT

  •  Gah. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The 2014 Senate map is so, so bad. Imagine if Johnson, Rockefeller,  and Warner all retire. (I really don't see Pryor doing so - not sure what the logic is on that one being 50-50.) And then we'd still have to defend in Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire... And the Republican seats range from safe to safest (though if Collins retires that might be our one shot)...

    I think we need to pick up at least two seats this year in order to have even odds of holding the senate past 2014.

  •  Small quibble with your nomenclature (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Carte Goodwin was not an "Acting Senator", he was an actual Senator, regardless of the fact that he was appointed.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 04:37:33 PM PDT

  •  Lois Capps (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is facing a more difficult election than she's had for a while, she's approaching her mid-seventies, and she never set out for a career in politics to begin with and has now served 14 years. I'd add her to the watchlist.

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:23:10 PM PDT

  •  quibbles (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera, GoUBears, R30A, jncca

    I thought Danny Davis' un-retirement in 2010 was because he was going to run for Cook County Board President but then changed his mind...which isn't the same as being done with politics.

    On the other hand, if you're going to add someone from Chicago you should add Luis Gutierrez who retired then un-retired in the 2008 cycle IIRC.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 03:08:51 AM PDT

  •  Illinois retirement list (0+ / 0-)

    As far as Dick Durbin goes, it's basically 50/50 in regards to whether or not he retires. If Durbin does retire, Mike Frerichs, Dave Koehler, and Tammy Duckworth would be the three most likely candidates to run for the Democratic nomination in what will most likely be a multi-way primary.

    Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL-2) and John Shimkus (R-IL-15) will probably retire, with Jackson being the more likely of the two to do so. Two potential Democratic successors for Jackson would be Debbie Halvorson, a former one-term Congresswoman who attempted a primary challenge to Jackson earlier this year, and Anthony Beale, a Chicago alderman. Two potential Republican successors to Shimkus would be Danville mayor Scott Eisenhauer and state senator Dale Righter.

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 04:47:03 AM PDT

  •  Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

    Rep. Ron Kind (D-LaCrosse) may run for Governor of Wisconsin in 2014, particularly if Scott Walker gets taken out by the John Doe probe or otherwise decides not to run for a second term, since Wisconsin Democrats will likely be running against Rebecca Kleefisch in the 2014 gubernatorial race if Walker doesn't run for a second term, and Kleefisch is probably easier to defeat than Walker is. Three potential Democratic successors to Kind include Jennifer Carroll, a TV news anchor for the NBC affiliate in LaCrosse, as well as state senators Jennifer Shilling and Julie Lassa. I'm not sure how well Carroll would vet as a Democrat or a Republican, if she vets well as a Republican, that could be serious trouble for Democrats.

    Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Menominee Falls) and Rep. Tom Petri (R-Fond du Lac) may also retire in 2014. Two potential Republican successors to Sensenbrenner include Leah Vukmir and Glenn Grothman, both state senators. Three potential Republican successors to Petri include state senator Scott Fitzgerald, retiring state assemblyman Jeff Fitzgerald, and former recalled state senator Randy Hopper. If Petri retires and state senator Jessica King runs as a Democrat, expect a competitive race.

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 05:33:39 AM PDT

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