I have to write this diary prior to Election Day, because retirements start pretty soon after. What I'm going to do is rank every Senator's likelihood of retirement from 1 (no chance) to 5 (almost guaranteed). Then I'll post a list of what I think are the 20 representatives most likely to retire and not run for another office.
* (running again):
Entire freshman class, which I won't bother listing, except for Mark Warner.
Saxby Chambliss, R-GA:
Chambliss has already announced he'll run again. This seat should be Safe R.
Mitch McConnell, R-KY:
No way he'll retire with a majority in sight.
John Cornyn, R-TX:
He hasn't shown any signs of retirement.
* (likely running again):
Jeff Sessions, R-AL:
67 is young in Senate terms, and he won't even have to campaign.
Tom Harkin, D-IA:
He will face a tough challenge, according to recent polling, but he seems like too much of a fighter to retire.
Mary Landrieu, D-LA:
Her popularity has recovered, and she's been fundraising.
Max Baucus, D-MT:
Has also announced he's running again. No top tier GOP challenger waiting in the wings, which should help him with his decision.
Jack Reed, D-RI:
Any senator who can't receive Social Security yet and is in a safe seat is at least likely to run again.
Lindsey Graham, R-SC:
Relatively likely to lose his primary, but he's probably not going to retire.
John Kerry, D-MA:
Assuming he doesn't become SoS, he'll probably run for yet another term.
Pat Roberts, R-KS:
Been around awhile, but no indication he's thinking about retirement.
Susan Collins, R-ME:
She'll win if she runs. If Brown loses, she'll be the most moderate senator by quite a bit, followed by Murkowski.
Dick Durbin, D-IL:
Rumor has it he doesn't have the votes to become party leader when Reid retires, likely in 2016. In that case, he may hang it up. I hope he doesn't, because our bench in Illinois is incredibly weak right now. Tilts Retirement.
Thad Cochran, R-MS:
He's been around forever, and as he saw with Dick Lugar, being around forever certainly doesn't guarantee you'll win your primary. It does guarantee apostasies, however. He's no Tea Partier and is more in the Lamar Alexander school than, say, the Jeff Sessions one. Mississippi's runoff system makes a primary loss even more likely. Top candidates to succeed him should he retire include Auditor Stacey Pickering (from the Lynn Westmoreland/Lindsey Graham school of Southern Republicans You Thought Were Women), SoS Delbert Hosemann (who would clearly have the greatest name of any senator short of Sheldon Whitehouse), and Tea Partying State Senator Chris McDaniel.
Jim Inhofe, R-OK:
Also been around a decent amount of time and not young. He hasn't announced he'll run in 2014. Possible successors could include Governor Mary Fallin, as none of Oklahoma's Representatives appear likely to run. Then again, he could stay on, hoping to chair the Environmental Committee (shudder).
Mark Pryor, D-AR:
Rep. Tim Griffin should give him a strong challenge, but the Pryor name and Pryor himself are still popular in Arkansas. We'll see if he pulls a Mike Ross or not. Either way, he isn't Blanche Lincoln.
** (I think they'll retire, but it's not for sure)
Carl Levin, D-MI:
Some think he's a Senate lifer, but I think he retires this time around, to be succeeded by Gary Peters, who's been backed by the Black establishment for what has to be SOME reason. Republicans don't have any strong candidates here; the representatives are too old or too conservative.
Mark Warner, D-VA:
He's leaning toward running for Governor in 2013, in which case I think this seat is Bob McDonnell's for the taking.
*** (I'd bet money they retire)
Frank Lautenberg, D-NJ:
Lautenberg will be over 90, and with a Republican governor, that's very risky in the event he dies. Also, he'll be over 90! Why wouldn't he want to retire? He retired once before. And his wife is still alive, so he does have family left.
Tim Johnson, D-SD:
He's in poor health and former Gov. Mike Rounds has already indicated he'll run. I don't think it'd be a coronation like John Hoeven's race was, but Johnson isn't really up to running the vigorous campaign he'd need to.
Mike Enzi, R-WY:
He nearly retired in 2008. Rep. Cynthia Lummis or Gov. Matt Mead are next in line. Or Liz Cheney, I guess.
Jay Rockefeller, D-WV:
After slamming the coal industry, Rockefeller is clearly retiring. Former Acting Sen. Carte Goodwin, SoS Natalie Tennant, or a number of other Democrats could run. My guess is they'd face Rep. David McKinley, who is an incredible fundraiser, in a tough race.
Likely to Run for Higher Office:
As already mentioned, Gary Peters, D-Detroit; Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming; David McKinley, R-West Virginia; and Tim Griffin, R-Little Rock, will all likely run in this scenario. I'd also guess Tim Ryan, D-Youngstown, runs for Governor, and Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, runs for Senate.
Formerly Primaried, Now Retiring:
These Representatives are scared after nearly losing primaries and want to go out with (some) dignity.
Pete Stark, D-Bay Area (provided he wins in November). Rich Dude Ro Khanna and Stark-anoited successor is probably running in 2014 whether Stark wins or loses, as Stark would retire in that case. St Sen. Ellen Corbett also wants the seat.
Charlie Rangel, D-Manhattan/Bronx nearly lost his primary this year and would likely lose provided there was only one opponent.
Personal Issues, Health or Otherwise:
Ruben Hinojosa, D-South Texas has filed for bankruptcy. I expected him to retire this year and he didn't, so who knows.
Jesse Jackson, Jr., D-Chicago has mental health issues and will likely retire or be primaried after being absentee for so long and straight up disappearing.
Dave Camp, R-Rural Central Michigan recently was diagnosed with cancer. Often, that in and of itself causes a complete reassessment of one's priorities, even though he's likely to survive.
Rumors of Retirement Previously:
Danny Davis, D-Chicago retired and then unretired in 2010. At some point, he will actually retire.
Other Members over age 65 who may retire:
Sander Levin, D-Detroit Suburbs, will likely retire the same year his brother Carl does. Which means possibly in 2014.
Buck McKeon, R-Lancaster/Santa Clarita is old and his time as Chair of Armed Services is up.
David Price, D-Research Triangle, who I think has a deal with Rep. Brad Miller that Miller would retire for one term and then succeed him rather than challenge him in a primary.
Mike Simpson, R-Eastern Idaho, who consistently beats back Some Dudes in primaries but could lose if faced with an actual elected official due to his non-adherence to the Norquist Pledge.
Joe Pitts, R-Lancaster and Sam Johnson, R-Dallas Suburbs, because they're just plain old.
Alcee Hastings, D-South Florida, Phil Gingrey, R-Atlanta Suburbs, Ed Whitfield, R-Western Kentucky, Rodney Alexander, R-Rural Louisiana, Jim Moran, D-NoVa, Tom Petri, R-Central Wisconsin, Bobby Rush, D-Chicago, and Collin Peterson, D-Western Minnesota, just because it's rare for fewer than 20 Reps to retire.
So there's my list...what's yours?