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We all know that Gallup reports their data on a rolling 7-day average. Obama was ahead 50-45 for the three days before the debate, and has been tied the three days after. This is among a sample of Registered Voters.  

The Politico GWU Battleground poll finds Obama staked to a narrow 49-48 lead.

Romney has increased his position in the PPP poll of Virginia by a few points and has dramatically improved (10 pts.) his favorability ratings.

This is the state of the race as of today.

Chicken Littles are screaming "All is Lost!" Delusionals are smoothly crooning, "Chill out -- BO's got this."

You're both wrong, and frankly, you're both REALLY wrong. Obama doesn't "got" this anymore than I "got" my wife's Christmas bonus. I expect it, I deserve it. All signs point to "most likely" but the check has not yet been recieved and the accountants are stupid assholes who might decide "the climate isn't right."

Obama has not "lost" -- he's actually the president right now, and has a lot of money, a firm cohort of diehard supporters and a month to make the case.

But that's the issue here...he has to MAKE THE CASE. And only he can do it. I can't, you can't -- Bill Clinton can't. We can affect things around the margins and motivate some folks to show up, but Barack has to decide that he wants this thing and that he can explain why we would be worse off under Romney, and better off under his leadership.

To all of you "oh we've lost people" -- I sympathize. Obama let me down too. But the only thing he's lost so far is one debate. It was a huge loss and it changed the race but I suspect some of you were planted too firmly in the "this race is over" camp to begin with...maybe you should be like me, more nervous as shit ESPECIALLY when things are going well.

To those of you who think Obama won, on substance or style -- wow, just, wow. Do you look in the mirror and see a supermodel too? I was about ten minutes into the debate and I told my wife, "He looks and sounds like shit." If you had a different perception, God bless your ability to live in denial. But a HUGE chunk of the American public saw what I saw.

Romney would be a better than 50-50 shot if the election were held today. The jobs numbers were great, but the whole BLS truther thing accomplished what it set out to do. The GOP are good at changing the narrative and stealing thunder (being so close to the devil and all, they are good with sturm und drang). Anyone remember TANG? They turned that into an indictment of the media, got Dan Rather (fucking DAN RATHER!) fired and cast doubt and ran out the clock all while never denying the substance of the attack against Bush. Well, that's what they did with the jobs numbers. You won't see a bounce because the American people didn't see "The economy's improving" they saw, "Democrats claim good jobs numbers but Republicans cry foul."

Why am I trying to burst your bubble? Because as a recovering alcoholic, the thing I know best of all is you cannot overcome your troubles if you REFUSE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THEM. Obama is very likely down at the moment. Not far, maybe tied or even slightly ahead, but NOT A FAVORITE. He should be. But the news is not getting out, the message is unclear and the PR machine is too passive and frankly, highbrow for the job at hand.

This can be won, but Obama has to do it. We can help -- logistics (GOTV), money ($$$), word of mouth -- yes we should hold the MSM accountable, but, as I lectured my son after a close loss in the soccer tournament, the refs make bad calls everyday and some go your way and some don't -- you have to OUTPLAY the other team.

I hope we can move past parsing the polls (they oversampled assholes!) Claiming victory after the first lap (the bounce is over!) and assuming right thought means right result (Romney's lying and evil so he can't possibly win.) People are dumb, the economy has been tough....racists still dominate many regions and demographics (esp. the older folks), gas prices are getting bad ATM, and foreign issues aren't a decisive plus right now and in fact may cause worry.

Romney stole the fire Prometheus Obama was using to burn him -- the unfavorability issue is probably dead. Now the only thing left is "He promised you all a pony, but really he's selling you horsemeat." We (Obama, mostly) have to focus on the idea that YOU CAN'T TRUST this guy. Because A) His statements are not accurate or honest, B) His policies will make things worse, reverse gains and set us back to Lehman Brothers collapse policies, and C) He has said whatever he needed to say at different times and different places...

Shorter: He's a liar, a vulture and a fraud. But we can't assume (Are you Listening Mr. President?) that the American voters are smart enough to figure that out -- we have to say it outright. And often.

UPDATE 9:54AM: Thanks for the recs, and the respectful dialogue below. I stand by my assessment that the current state -- and trajectory of the race are significant and negative. But one thing is clear -- NOTHING IS CLEAR. There are data points going both ways and as everyone knows, or should -- there are 29 days and three debates left. As Woody Allen might say, "There's plenty of time for things to change, we might not lose -- we might get killed." (Or trounce!) Luckily I have no need or desire to be proven right, I am well prepared -- and eager to eat crow. See me Nov. 7.

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