Skip to main content

The latest Pew Research Poll, conducted between Oct 4 and Oct 7, shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 4%, 49% to 45%, a 12% improvement from their previous poll, where President Obama led by 8%, 51% to 43%.  Yesterday, Nate Silver found and average post-debate poll debate bounce for Romney of just under 3%.  

This Pew Poll of 1,511 adults found 1,201 registered voters, and 1,112 likely voters.

The more troubling finding is a large enthusiasm advantage among Republicans, including a higher percentage who say they are extremely likely to vote.  Another discouraging finding, was President Obama's personal favorability rating fell six percent, and Romney closing his previous 18% gap with women voters. An "enthusiasm gap" in likely voting, has been found in previous polls, and commented on by Chuck Todd this weekend, pointing us to a area we need to work on.  

More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September.

In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.

Gak! This is depressing. One possible hope is that this poll captured the mood immediately after the debate, which may have tempered somewhat by the weekend according to an analysis this afternoon by kos. But, we definitely have work to do on raising Democratic voters likelihoods of voting.

3:17 PM PT: What a roller coaster of a day in polling. A new post debate poll from the University of Denver shows President Barack Obama with a 4% lead of Mitt Romney, even though a majority think Romney won the debate.

Obama held onto his small lead among likely voters in Colorado with 47 percent of the vote after the first debate. But Romney is just four points behind with 43 percent. Five percent said they are still undecided and another four percent said they are voting for someone else.

“Two important lessons from the polls are, first, there are very few undecided voters left in Colorado, and second, Gov. Romney has improved his position to win them over in the closing days of the race,” said University of Denver political scientist Dr. Peter Hanson in a statement. ...

According to Nielsen ratings, 67.2 million Americans tuned in to last week’s debate. Most voters did not actually change their opinions after watching the debate. For the most part, the debate only strengthened voters’ beliefs. ...  Five percent of viewers actually changed their mind after the debate.

3:32 PM PT: Blumenthal's analysis of the combined poll averages was
summed by this chart.

Photobucket

If we can keep PA, IA, NV, WI, and not shown NH in our column we can get to 270 with OH, CO, VA, or FL, and still have CO, and OH in our column but only by 1.2% and 2.4%.

So, this help us focus where we need to work.  Getting up Democratic voter participation rates up seems to be our highest leverage strategy now.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site