Alright, it's been a long time since I've posted a diary here that's been serious in nature, but in light of last week's minor calamity and the ensuing anxiety attacks over the election, I think it's worthwhile to put an honest spin on what the state of the race is with less than a month to the election. To be quite frank, there's been way too much of a "chill the fuck out" attitude around this place. Are people afraid to be called a concern troll nowadays?
Because if so, then I'll be fine to start concern-trolling everyone's ass, starting below the fold...
First, the race is tightening. There is absolutely no doubt about that, and a lot of it, frankly, is because the President screwed up the debate. He wasn't as awful as Ed Schultz and the MSNBC crowd may have made it seem right after the debate, but even my fiancee (who is nowhere near as interested politically as I am) could tell Romney 'won' the debate. Hell, she knew from my body language - I wasn't holding my head in my hands because I'd had too much to drink (although, to be fair, I had more than my fair share). The substance of the debates really doesn't matter unless style points don't count, and let's call a spade a spade - I thought (and I'm sure most of us thought the same) that Romney would come out and put his silver foot in his mouth, pretty much the same way that he had done for most of the months prior. Not only did he clear that low bar, but he was aggressive and came off sounding a lot more confident in telling outright lies and falsehoods that he has in the past. And frankly, that's what saved him, because he got that glassy-eyed look that a bully gets when he knows he's being about to be called out on his shit when the President was speaking. When he wasn't speaking, Romney looked like a very nervous, smirking asshole that he is who was thisclose to losing his shit. Unfortunately, it didn't happen.
So Romney won the debate on these merits, and the polls have moved in his direction somewhat. Do I believe the flood of polls coming from these shady-ass companies that have popped up out of thin air this election cycle? Hell no, and neither should you. Unless Quinnipiac or Marist start showing Romney with leads in swing states that he was getting annihilated in pre-debate (with Ohio being the main focus), the Electoral College is still in hand. Additionally, I think it's incredibly disingenuous for us to be touting the daily trackers now - especially when we were denigrating the same polls a few months earlier because they consistently showed Romney up 2-3 points, even though the underlying numbers didn't make sense. Wait for the national pollsters that have been doing good work, with solid sample sets and statistically sound analysis, to put out their numbers - and then we can start worrying about whether or not we are winning or losing. Frankly, though, the numbers are probably going to bounce around over the next week or two, with 3 more debates (1 VP and 2 presidential) to go. There will be a lot of sound and fury, but I would argue it's going to be a little bit (in the context of how much longer before Election Day) before we know if it signifies nothing, or something more.
What does it mean? I will tell you it means one thing, and one thing only: GOTV. Maybe the President will crush Romney in the next 2 debates we'll look at all this teeth-gnashing and have a good laugh about it come November 7th. What you don't want to be doing is regretting that you didn't do your part to get the President re-elected, and - almost as important - keeping the Senate in Democratic hands and doing our damndest to flip the House back to Nancy Pelosi. In a close race, every single person makes a difference. Those of you who read me several years ago know that I put my feet where my mouth was - volunteering to help Ned Lamont take down Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary in 2006, volunteering for Patrick Murphy in PA-08 in 2006, and going up to New Hampshire to walk door to door in sub-zero weather during the 2008 presidential primary. I can't do it anymore (when you get older, unfortunately you have other obligations), but I've donated a heck of a lot of coin to the President's campaign. In one way or another, we all have our part to play this election. Go knock on doors - it's an incredibly rewarding experience, and I say this as someone who is not the most sociable person in the world. Phonebank. Give money. Get people registered to vote. Do the little things, like writing a letter to the editor of your local newspaper. Talk to your friends who aren't politically inclined and make sure they know just how important this election is.
You know what we shouldn't be doing? Posting on Daily Kos and arguing amongst ourselves. The polls are the polls - some will be right, some will be wrong. The talking heads are vested in having a horse race, so take everything that anyone says on television, even if it's from MSNBC, with a grain of salt.
Tune it all out, and let's get back to work. We know what we need to do to win this election. And if we execute, we will win. Of this, I have absolutely no doubts about - and neither should any of us.