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Here's what's new in our Orange to Blue races.
 

Speaker Pelosi project bug
Speaker Pelosi Project:

CA-07, CA-10: The races for both Ami Bera  and Jose Hernandez have been rated tossups by Roll Call. That's good. What's also good is that both are going to be getting the Big Dog Boost tomorrow, when President Bill Clinton appears at a rally to endorse them, along with Reps. John Garamendi and Jerry McNerney.

CA-47: Alan Lowenthal's Republican opponent got a little nasty with a tracker from the California Dems after a League of Women Voters debate this weekend. He ripped the tracker's phone from her hand and began deleting videos, before appealing to the forum organizers to intervene. Testy, testy.

FL-18: The first debate between Patrick Murphy and Allen West happened on Friday. And it sounds pretty weird, with West focusing on—get this—his bipartisanship, and the most fireworks happening in the audience.

As Murphy talked about tiring of Tea Party extremism, the crowd erupted into boos. And then, cheers.
"No extremism, right?" Murphy said with a nervous laugh.

The audience booed him again when he criticized West for comparing Democrats to Nazis. "Bullshit!" shouted one attendee. Seconds later, others in the crowd hushed the rest of them.

That wasn't the first time the audience displayed the sharp divide within itself. The first applause of the debate came when Murphy pledged his support for Obamacare. Minutes later, West, too, got applause when he said he would gut nearly all of the health care law.

In a crazy state, this might be the craziest district.

FL-26: Rep. David Rivera, who gave what could be the most bizarre press conference of this cycle on Friday, calling a press conference and refusing to address questions about the ongoing FBI investigation into his campaign activities. Just one reason why Roll Call calls him one of the top 10 vulnerable House incumbents this time around, against challenger Joe Garcia.

[I]f the freshman lawmaker, reportedly under investigation by the FBI, somehow pulls off his re-election, it will be beyond miraculous. Rivera has been under an ethical cloud since he entered Congress.[...] How bad have things gotten? Last week, the Miami Herald ran a story naming the GOP candidates looking to try to win the seat back in 2014. The message was sent to Rivera: Good riddance.
NH-01: Republican incumbent Charlie Bass is also on Roll Call's endangered list.
Bass is a veteran of competitive races and the wave elections of 2006 and 2010 - the years he got swept out of and then back into Congress. This year there is no political tide moving in one direction and Bass' political skills will be tested in a neutral environment. His district favors Democrats, making him a top target from the very beginning of the cycle. He faces a rematch from 2010 with Ann McLane Kuster, who never stopped running after her loss two years ago.
Go Kuster!

WI-07: New polling out of Wisconsin doesn't look good for our friend Pat Kreitlow, but take heart. It's an internal poll from the Sean Duffy campaign, and its 11-point lead for Duffy is far from the other polling we've seen showing the two in a dead heat. The poll also diverges from recent polling in the state on the presidential and senate races.

Upgrade the Senate bug
Upgrade the Senate:

HI-Sen: Mainlanders will have to stay up a little late tonight if they want to watch Mazie Hirono debate Linda Lingle. The debate will be streamed live from KHON2.com, but it starts at 7:00 PM Hawaii time, 1:00 AM ET.

MA-Sen: Sure Scott Brown is an "independent," voting his conscience and able to represent the deep Blue state of Massachusetts. That's why he's endorsed by all the anti-choicers in the state, and now the tea party (which too few remember helped get him elected), too. He probably could have done without that endorsement in his race against Elizabeth Warren. Too bad for him.

Fight for Marriage bug
Daily Kos for Marriage Equality:

Minnesota: PPP finds a very tight race for equality in Minnesota. But the movement is in the right direction.

PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.
Washington: On the other hand, in the Evergreen State, marriage equality is winning big in the latest SUSA poll, by a 55-40 percent margin with just 6 percent undecided.

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 03:25 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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