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RAND has an interesting tracking poll (American Life Panel) which interviews the same 3500 people (1/7 each day) repeatedly over the course of several months.  

The significance of this methodology is that shifts you see are due to real people changing their minds.

So it's interesting to see that since the debate, the Republicans in their study are less inclined to vote (by about 1%), while the Democrats seem more inclined to vote (by about 0.5%).  This is a real shift of real people's stated intentions, but the sample includes last Tuesday through yesterday, so it's not a pure take on the debate reaction.

Intention to vote, by candidate preference

So far, this runs completely counter to the prevailing wisdom about who got energized by the debate.  It will be interesting to see how the next week plays out as the sampled days get completely past the debate and its immediate aftermath.

2:49 AM PT: I might also point out that the enthusiasm gap you see in this poll represents an extra effort we need to exert to get out the vote, above and beyond anything the Republicans are doing.

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Comment Preferences

  •  with the opposition in disarray, who would not be (9+ / 0-)

    energized? Paul Rand leaves a TV interview because he was "ambushed by a weird question"  What happened?  He was talking about the Rust Belt and the need to re-energize the population and to provide opportunities, fueled solely by churches, private charities and private businesses.
    When he was asked how his tax cuts would play out to encourage such a Renaissance, he blurted out he had never supported tax cuts and walked off the stage, with his handlers complaining that the question was unrelated to his previous statement

  •  Republicans are confused. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, DamselleFly

    The "primary voters" heard Romney promise across  the  board tax cuts and repeal of all of "ObamaCare" while debate listeners heard Romney deny his previous promises. Both groups wonder and are unsure which group is being lied to.

    "Remember, Republican economic policies quadrupled the debt before I took office and doubled it after I left. We simply can't afford to double-down on trickle-down." Bill Clinton

    by irate on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:35:42 AM PDT

  •  Why is his surprising? Complacency ruled among (5+ / 0-)

    way too many Democrats before the debate, especially here on DailyKos

    Oh, this is in the bag, we regaled each other, as we recounted the latest Romney gaffe, the lateset poll with its trending lines.

    The few who said, wait a minute, this race is going to tighten up, and who pointed out the huge amounts of money the Republicans had in reserve waiting to flood the airwaves with lies, and warned of voter repression, and warned that the Republicans would stop at nothing--they were called concern trolls (as I'm sure I will be) and told that the tens of millions spent on ads will have no effect and nothing can help Romney nor stop Obama (and some are still saying that now).

    Complacency ruled here and elsewhere and had it continued it might have cost Obama the election.

    Now people are realizing that this isn't in the bag, and this unpleasant reality, far from demoralizing them, is energizing them, calling them to action, making them think about the grim possibility of a Romney victory and what that would mean.

    Handwringing, bedwetting and "concern trolling", can actually be a good thing (it worked for Romney--the barrage of criticism he faced from his own party forced him to get up off his lazy ass and actually work and prepare and take chances), for they can wake people up, motivate them to do things they wouldn't otherwise do (even if it is just voting, something too many Democrats fail to do.)

    The proverbial golden lining of this whole debate fiasco is that the smirky complacency is gone on the part of Democrats. We know this election is up for grabs and we know that we are going to have to fight tooth and nail to win it (and believe me, President Obama and those around him get that, now, too).

  •  Those Voters Who Are Republican And Need (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JMcDonald, DamselleFly

    Obamacare they are having second thoughts.  Also, I hope that some older voters are thinking twice about having medicare voucherized.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 05:45:49 AM PDT

  •  A hint: Romney is not the Anti-Christ. (0+ / 0-)

    Christians are hearing that an opinion exists that Mittster is playing an anti-Christ in real life.

    His chosen role running for president is the version of the Conqueror that you find in Joseph Smith's "White Horse Prophesy." The "WHP" as spoken of among LDS Saints. Romney has been saying he would fulfill this prophesy since he was in prep school in Michigan, again as a missionary in France, and at BYU in his 20s.

    This figure from the WHP is also the First Rider from the Book of Revelation, Chapter 6, verse 2.

    However, Joseph Smith misread The Revelation. He blundered. He never, ever realized that these figures are the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

    First Rider on a white horse, for Christians, is the Anti-Christ.

    Returning to the original King James text, The Revelation of St. John the Divine at Chapter 6 -- the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse:

    The Seals

    1. And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see.
    2. And I saw, and behold a white horse:  and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
    3. And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see.
    4. And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
    5. And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
    6. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
    7. And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.
    8. And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

    Verse 2. became an obsession. Joseph Smith raised an army of 5,000 armed men. He fell in love with this second verse, with this First Rider which he did not connect to the Christian realization of the Four Horsemen as servants of Satan.

    In that special "WHP" view of the world, as created by Joseph Smith, Mitt's political lies are protected by magic.

    Christians are getting a quick education on The Revelation and its  misuse by Smith when he founded Latter Day Saints as a religion.

    Word is going out.

    White Horse, itself, is an allegorical figure to which Joseph Smith gifted a real world presence. White Horse provides the Mormons with "peace and safety." Yet how this is done requires a connection to Smith's statements about political power.

    To Smith, lies are the strongest weapon for getting worldly power. Smith goes on in WHP to call the Mormons, themselves, "the White Horse." They are to have become what they believe.

    Smith had no idea that his Conqueror figure is the Anti-Christ, The Revelation's prime villain and destructor of the world. The figure who gets 42 months to lay waste.

    Romney is a blind follower of Smith, equally lost from biblical meaning. Romney has never read the King James Bible.

    Mitt Romney is not a supernatural figure. He does believe with ardor that his lies are protected.

    So far, so good. Assuming Christian ignorance, he can go further. Until, like Smith when he was arrested and convicted in 1826 and 1830 for false-magic frauds, he gets caught.

    •  ok, that was weird /nt (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bontemps2012, Apost8
      •  Have you read anything from Joseph Smith ? (0+ / 0-)

        This guy rewrote the Bible. Went through and dictated changes so's he'd have his own "retranslated" version.

        Talking with angels and Abraham was the least of it. And he sexed 14 women, plus his wife, several of them already married to other men. Wild man.

        Also, bluntly, Mitt Romney thinks in lies.

        It worked for Smith....

        •  familiar with history, haven't read it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bontemps2012, Apost8

          Having said that, the entire realm of debates among religious factions just sounds like unadulterated gibberish to me.

          From my perspective, your argument is written in a foreign language I will never speak.  I don't wish you any ill, I just can't invest any energy in that nonsense.

          On the other hand, if it inspires you to vote against Romney, who am I to stop you?

          •  The actual topic is misusing a religion, (0+ / 0-)

            here Christianity and its Bible, to perpetrate a fraud.

            Romney fell for Smith's fraud, hook line and sinker.

            The Revelation is wonderful poetry, no matter your beliefs.

            What is "gibberish" to one person could be a section of Shakespeare's "The Tempest" or "Midsummer Night's Dream" to another.


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