I was expecting an Obama lead of +1 today because the huge Romney day on Friday fell off. But the numbers stayed the same - a tie. Without leaners it's 48-46 Romney. Also, Romney's support is more firm with 45% of the electorate saying they will definitely vote for him, as opposed to 41% of Americans saying they will definitely vote for Obama.
Obama was always vulnerable to huge swings in voter enthausism since so many of his voters are people who never really came out to vote for anyone else before - young voters and minorities. In my opinion, the easiest way they can regain control is to fire up his base by throwing it some red meat. Rasmussen after the jump...
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
Romney’s support is a bit more solid than the president’s at this point in time. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for Obama.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Our daily Swing State update is released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Today’s results will show Romney slightly ahead in the 11 key swing states. This is a significant change. For virtually the entire campaign, Obama has done better in the swing states than in the national averages. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change in the race or merely a temporary aberration.
Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column notes that Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback if he wants to keep his job. If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
Post-debate polling shows that Romney and the president are within two points of each other in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Colorado. All remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. New data from Nevada will be released at noon Eastern today.
We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other. See daily tracking history.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show smaller swings than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
Other polls use methodologies that sometimes show larger swings. It’s also important to remember that polling theory suggests one out of every 20 polls will have results outside the margin of error. In some cases, media reports exaggerate the movement as well by referencing the most extreme polls in either direction.
When evaluating polls, it is best to look for the common ground rather than just picking the one that is best for your candidate. In recent days, there are two bits of common ground. First, the numbers have shifted in Romney’s favor. Second, the president’s support is between 45% and 49%. That suggests a close race as we have been reporting for months.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
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