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U.S. President Barack Obama gestures while speaking at an Obama Victory Fund concert while at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium in San Francisco October 8, 2012. Obama is in San Francisco during his three day campaign swing in California and Ohio. REUTERS/Larry Downing
Bouncing back.
Let's get this straight—every poll this week that was in the field last Thursday and Friday will not look good for us. There's no doubt that President Barack Obama took a serious hit from his crappy debate performance. Not only did he let Mitt Romney walk all over him verbally and rhetorically, hyper-motivating the conservative base, not only did he demoralize base Democrats itching for a fighter, but he gave the media a reason to quit the "Romney is a loser" talk.

Fact is, Obama doesn't like to play the partisan fighter role. He wants to be the conciliator who brings people together to blah blah blah. That's why he let the health care debate drag on 14 months instead of genuinely ramming it down the GOP's throat. That's why he waited until this year to act on Don't Ask, Don't Tell and the DREAM kids. Every time you think he has learned that Republicans want to utterly destroy him, he comes back with his rhetorical embrace of the enemy, telling everyone that we should all come together because we're not really all that different! You see, Republicans want to destroy Social Security, and Democrats want to ... destroy it a little less? God, I hope not. But that's the Obama people got last week.

And as we've seen time and time again, every time Obama shies away from standing firm he gets burned, and he got burned badly.

The irony, of course, is that Romney scored his biggest points by moving to Obama's left. The Etch-a-Sketch was in action, as Romney transformed himself from a "severe conservative" to "Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney."  

But conservatives didn't care, because one, they know Romney is malleable and they'd be able to shape him like silly putty, and two, they'd embrace Bernie Sanders if the Vermont socialist went on stage and punched Obama.

But here's the data, post-debate: In what were the worst polling days for the president all cycle, the GOP's hack pollster Rasmussen found Nevada tied 47-47, Obama up in Iowa 49-47, Obama up in Colorado 49-48, and Obama up in Ohio 50-49. He also found Romney up 49-47 in Florida and 49-48 in Virginia.

PPP found Obama winning Virginia 50-47 and Wisconsin 49-47. Ann Selzer, one of the best pollsters in the biz, found Obama leading in Colorado 47-43. We've got a CNN poll of Ohio coming out in several hours which will also help paint a better picture of where things stand. But again, remember—if the poll was in the field last Thursday and Friday, the results won't be great. But in this, the highest point in Romney's campaign thus far, this is the best he can muster?

(Continue reading below the fold.)

1:05 PM PT:
CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters' Choice for President: Obama         51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)
@PeterHambyCNN via web
Told y'all.

2:04 PM PT: Note, that CNN poll was in the field Fri-Mon, which means it avoided that bad Thursday, and added a good Monday (and maybe Sunday). This week, the numbers will be heavily dependent on when exactly the poll was taken.

Also remember that the bump is fading. That's why they call them bumps. Particularly when Romney still hasn't solved his biggest problem. From ABC's latest poll:

Night-to-night data indicate a sizable [favorability] boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.

The net effect is slight at best. Romney is now seen favorably by 47 percent of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51 percent; Obama’s rating is better, 55-44 percent. Changes for both candidates from their pre-debate levels (Romney 44-49 percent, Obama 52-45 percent) are not statistically significant, given the surveys’ margin of sampling error.

Got that? Romney got more popular Thursday, but faded over the rest of the weekend to the point that his net unfavorability ended up just one point better than before the debate. Obama, paradoxically, ended up +2. The Rasmussen daily tracker has already given back most of Romney's debate bump, as has Gallup:
Obama led 50-45 in Gallup tracking the two days before the debate. The results were tied 47-47 on the two days after the debate. And the two days after that, back to 50-45 Obama.
Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.
That's a very bumpity bump.

The problem is that we must now suffer through a couple of days of polling that were in the field late last week. If these trends hold, we'll have some great polling news next week. So instead of freaking out about every poll you see over the next few days, just take a gander at the dates and realize that those numbers are about as worse-case as you can get.

Of course, that assumes that Joe Biden and Obama won't screw up the remaining three debates. I must admit I previously underestimated Obama's ability to blow this. But as bad as last week was, and regardless of the media chatter, the fundamentals of the race remain little changed: Romney is still not a popular figure, while Obama continues to improve (today, Gallup was up +4 on the day for Obama's favorabilities, 53-42) while retaining the lead and sitting at 50 or very close to it in the States That Matter. Given the choice, I'd much rather be Obama than the other guy.

People want to vote for Obama, they want him to succeed, which is more than can be said about Romney. But he can't let them down again. Another bad debate performance, and the fundamentals may not hold.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Excellent, thanks kos (130+ / 0-)

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:31:27 PM PDT

    •  Yeah - I've been waiting for this all day ... (29+ / 0-)

      I knew it was coming.  Finally, much needed perspective.  One week does not an election make...

      Big picture, folks.

      (Although agree that Obama can't be Mr. Passive in the next 2 debates. He'll have to be that guy, even though he'd prefer not to be.  He really wouldn't even need to be nasty or need to start wiping his upper lip and gesticulating to make hit his marks and make his points (and disspell the bullshit) - just be honest and articulate.  He knows how to, now he needs to.  And it would throw Rmoney off his game too if he had to start pushing back against the push back.)

    •  This helped a lot. (4+ / 0-)

      Thank you.

    •  hear, hear... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ekdog, shaharazade, peacefully

      "I must admit I previously underestimated Obama's ability to blow this. But as bad as last week was, and regardless of the media chatter, the fundamentals of the race remain little changed: Romney is still not a popular figure, while Obama continues to improve"

      But damn....can we get some fangs and claws sharpened for rounds 2,3,4?

      I've got news for you. The wealth has already been redistributed.

      by tinfoilhat on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:11:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  At least he didn't cry (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mr market, RainyDay, shaharazade
      Fact is, Obama doesn't like to play the partisan fighter role. He wants to be the conciliator who brings people together to blah blah blah. That's why he let the health care debate drag on 14 months instead of genuinely ramming it down the GOP's throat. That's why he waited until this year to act on Don't Ask, Don't Tell and the DREAM kids. Every time you think he has learned that Republicans want to utterly destroy him, he comes back with his rhetorical embrace of the enemy, telling everyone that we should all come together because we're not really all that different! You see, Republicans want to destroy Social Security, and Democrats want to ... destroy it a little less? God, I hope not. But that's the Obama people got last week.
      As I watched the debate it was stunning to see his flaccid performance. But then I realized that his performance in the debate was, as you said, consistent with his performance as president.
      It's interesting to see the reception you get compared with the reception I got when I published my Diary that evening.
      Oh well, at least the campaign commercials have some bite.
      However, if he performs like this again in the next two debates he will lose the election - no matter what those around him do to try and salvage things.
      I wonder if he has it in him.
      •  I really wonder too (0+ / 0-)

        I agree with the article, he can win, and he is certainly in a better position than Romney, but if he can't get it together in the next debate I don't think the fundamentals will hold either.

        The damage he did himself and the party is hard to calculate at this point since the polls do seem to be coming back - he could have put the game away with a win. He definitely hurt D senators and D house members in any case, period.

        I will say this - I think the 'empty suit' / 'teleprompter' extreme right wing criticisms are absolutely false and stupid - but after that debate performance I can't say they are outright crazy. They will always have that, even if he puts in a good performance next debate. He has really hurt himself. And it makes me wonder too if in the next 4 years, assuming he is elected he will be as weak in dealing with the Republicans as he has been so far. I really hope not, because that is no great prize.

        Give the people a choice between a Republican and a Republican and they will vote for the Republican every time - Harry S Truman

        by mr market on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:35:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Willie Brown - long time SF Democratic (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mbradshawlong

          stalwart - had this to say about Obama's performance last Wednesday.

          The minute President Obama walked on stage at Wednesday's debate, I knew he was not prepared. His tie was the wrong shade of blue, and his American flag lapel pin was way too small for the cameras. Small details for sure, but, like it or not, visuals and style will beat out substance every time in these televised debates.

          And it was clear that the president's people had not taken this first face-to-face with Republican rival Mitt Romney seriously enough.

          Romney, on the other hand looked every inch the commander in chief and not at all interested in substance.
          Still, it was amazing how Obama missed making almost every point that he has been hammering away on while on the stump.

          It was as if he had forgotten where he was. My guess is that as president he has become totally reliant upon the teleprompter and was at a loss without it.

          http://www.sfgate.com/...

          It's not just tea-partiers making quips about tele-prompters now.

          •  He has done well in debates 4 years ago (0+ / 0-)

            During those more than a dozen primary debates, as I recall, He has some good debates, some not so good debates and one or two excellent debates. He was amazing and strong vs McCain and in one or more debates vs Hillary. And Hllary is a great debater too.

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:15:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, (0+ / 0-)

              but he probably prepared to debate Hillary and McCain, whom unlike Romney, didn't shape shift into someone else in the debates.

              I personally thought all the lying and shape-shifting really ticked Obama off, which led to looking down and biting his lip to contain himself.

               

        •  Oh please........the empty suit comments aren't (0+ / 0-)

          outright crazy? Either DK has a lot of trolls these days, or lefties have weak minds.

        •  It's simple (0+ / 0-)

          He needs strong lines and deliver them looking Romney in the eye with a strong voice. Americans do not respect a President who lets a challenger harangue him without fighting back. I too hope he has it in him. If he doesn't, he's going to lose.

    •  fire in the belly is good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, mwm341

      i personally thought the post debate spin was an MSM media  driven grassfire.  grassfires burn hot but they burn out fast.

      We need to stand fast and reclaim the narrative, relentlessly point up our issues and strengths, boldly call out  the charlatans, and be fearless.

      if it took a frightening vision of Romney /Ryan at the helm to set a fire under our own asses, then so be it.

      its done. serious work ahead.
      our strength is in numbers and people
      we support this president with all our collective might
      let's show it.
      get out and stand on a corner with some signs, go to local events,  get visible, get audible. the smallest and weakest among us is what makes up our strength and our voice.

      no cowering. not now, not ever. too important.

  •  CNN is about to release their OH poll considering (13+ / 0-)

    how Wolf Blitzer is hyperventilating about interviewing Romney, I expect that poll to be a good one for Romney.

    But too soon to panic tho

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:33:08 PM PDT

    •  in DK it's never too soon to panic - NMFH (7+ / 0-)
      Of course, that assumes that Joe Biden and Obama won't screw up the remaining three debates. I must admit I previously underestimated Obama's ability to blow this. But as bad as last week was, and regardless of the media chatter, the fundamentals of the race remain little changed: Romney is still not a popular figure, while Obama continues to improve (today, Gallup was up +4 on the day for Obama's favorabilities, 53-42) while retaining the lead and sitting at 50 or very close to it in the States That Matter. Given the choice, I'd much rather be Obama than the other guy.

      People want to vote for Obama, they want him to succeed, which is more than can be said about Romney. But he can't let them down again. Another bad debate performance, and the fundamentals may not hold.

      yksitoista ulotteinen presidentin shakki. / tappaa kaikki natsit "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) 政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

      by annieli on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:42:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it won't matter either way (4+ / 0-)

      We know Thursday/Friday were awful for us. Any polls from that period are going to represent a low point.

      Polls aren't released in chronological order and people need to realize that a lot of the stuff coming out now is contemporaneous with the Ipsos and Gallup polls everyone was panicking about on Saturday.

    •  Blitzer is such a spaz... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaurenMonica

      he was like that about McCain, too.

      "...annoyingly ethical,"

      by chicating on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:06:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Will PPP be polling Ohio again anytime soon? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gramofsam1

      I'm prejudiced, because I come from there, but I think the election hinges on this state.  

      Oregon: Sure...it's cold. But it's a damp cold.

      by Keith930 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:42:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  When was the CNN poll in the field? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LaurenMonica, SaintC, politicalceci

    Have they said?

    But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by thezzyzx on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:33:16 PM PDT

  •  Then what about (21+ / 0-)

    The ready made red meat "Obama is an angry black man" line that will go out once he shows some unpresidential emotion?

    Yes Mitt, I do believe people are entitled to food.

    by Rustbelt Dem on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:34:18 PM PDT

  •  Well, we can't have any more Romney (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, a2nite

    "high points"

  •  Consider Romney's net negative approval rating (5+ / 0-)

    Romney's net-negative approval will not beat Obama's net-positive approval.

    That was nail in the coffin for us in 2004: Bush (somehow) made it to 50% approval in November, while Kerry was slightly net-negative.

    Take the fight to them. Don't let them bring it to you. - Harry S Truman

    by jgoodfri on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:34:23 PM PDT

  •  No, the irony was not lost on me (0+ / 0-)

    The fact that Mr. Romney could so easily stake positions to the left of Mr. Obama was not surprising or ironic at all. I know, though, the Supreme Court.

  •  One bump I really question is the 18 pts for women (12+ / 0-)

    in the Pew poll. That really doesn't seem possible. Has anyone yet accounted for it?

    I strongly agree that we ought not freak out about polling. I was just reading the Gallup poll which implied that Romney was up, but when reading further -- beyond the headline -- it was with likely voters, not registered voters, and as such reflected that bump more than what we'll probably see, also underscoring the CRITICAL IMPORTANCE of GOTV efforts at this time.

  •  Easy for you to say, you aren't black (10+ / 0-)

    Try winning an election as the angry partisan black man.

    Sometimes liberals are awfully dismissive of why Obama behaves the way he does at key moments.

    I don't like it when people are dismissive of race.

    If you want Obama to be a partisan angry black man, then prepare yourself to lose this election.

  •  There's a difference between compromising... (7+ / 0-)

    positions, and compromiseing core beliefs.

    This is what scares me:

    Republicans want to destroy Social Security, and Democrats want to ... destroy it a little less? God, I hope not. But that's the Obama people got last week.
    How does he expect people to have his back when he doesn't have ours?

    In an insane society, the sane man would appear insane

    by TampaCPA on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:36:25 PM PDT

    •  Meh, Kos was exaggerating (4+ / 0-)

      Obama has never said he wants to privatize Social Security or raise the retirement age. At most, he possibly favors changing over to the chained CPI.

      You can argue that will hurt beneficiaries, but it is not the wholesale destruction of the program that Republicans advocate.

      So yes, I believe he has our back on SS. He believes in the program and wants it to stay fundamentally the same.

      You never trust a millionaire/Quoting the sermon on the mount/I used to think I was not like them/But I'm beginning to have my doubts -- The Arcade Fire

      by tomjones on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:46:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, the noise on that bothers me. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        I at first thought that Obama was staking out a strange position but then did some research and saw that Romney has pledged to keep Social Security the same, probably in anticipation of a general election campaign.  I don't believe Romney but Obama has to debate with the Romney campaign, not with our intuition of what a Romney presidency really is.  Obama can attack frequent GOP positions on Social Security but then gives Romney the opening to say "But I'm Moderate Mitt, I disagree with those GOP proposals!"  A very dangerous line of attack for Obama and a very easy one for Romney to derive net benefit from.

        So, we move on; there are other places that we can pound Mitt for positions he actually has taken at least once :).

        "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

        by auron renouille on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:22:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Healthcare and the Supreme CT is riding on debates (5+ / 0-)

    I hope Obama and team (who let him down) gets their sh.....together, and fast. I am confident but not nearly as I was. Poilitics is a game and Obama IS first a politician. He needs to play with fire in his belly so that DEM enthusiasm comes back.

  •  Oh gosh isn't this what McCain said in 08 before (0+ / 0-)

    Everything fell apart for his campaign? What if the state polls start moving. And if CNN shows a Romney lead in Ohio wtf Obama saved the auto industry which helped them, I don't get it.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:36:58 PM PDT

  •  I agree with President Obama! (8+ / 0-)

    It is difficult for me to believe that the Republican Party in the USA has sunk to such lows that they will disregard the welfare of our nation.  It is hard to believe that they believe that their party loyalty is such that they would place our nation in economic peril to score cheap political points.

    I believe that President Obama will rise to the occasion and I think that Vice-President Biden will speak out and say the things that need to be said.

    We will prevail!

    Dick Cheney said, "Pi$$ on 'em!" And, Ronald Reagan replied, "That's a Great Idea. Let's Call it 'Trickle Down Economics!"

    by NM Ray on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:37:04 PM PDT

  •  The Polls... (11+ / 0-)

    .... are going to move.  Romney might go a little higher.  Then they'll move back the other way.  Obama will get most of his losses back, barring another debate disaster.  I don't think there will be another debate disaster.

    This happens every time, folks.  If it hadn't been the debate, it would have been something else.  We must have horse race drama in this country... even if it has to be invented.  There's plenty of time to turn this around -- shoot, it's already turning around -- and there is no crying in politics (unless you're John Boehner).

    This race is very winnable for Democrats -- for Obama, and for a whole slew of folks downticket... as long as we all do what we need to do.

    "I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different." -- Kurt Vonnegut

    by thepuppethead on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:37:20 PM PDT

    •  What if Obama has another bad debate(s) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mightymouse, janderso, Losty

      And Romney doesn't get appreciably worse?

      Looking towards the next debates may be a double-edged sword.

      •  Then he's done. (0+ / 0-)

        He has to put that fucker on the defense.

        Keep Calm and Carry On. But kick some unholy ass if the situation warrants.

        by GOPGO2H3LL on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:46:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But what if we get hit by meteors? Or dinosaurs (6+ / 0-)

        return to rule the Earth?

        Or Democratic voters sit out the election?  Or Romney pulls a Cory Booker and saves people from a burning building?  Or Greece decides to blow up the EU and takes the Western European bond market with it?  Or North Korea decides to engage in mischief and shells one of our bases in the ROK?  Or Iran announces themselves as a nuclear power?

        I mean, we can play "what if" games all day.  It's entirely possible to portray scenarios where Romney wins.  That's always been the case.  And if the next two debates go like the first one did, of course we'll be in bad shape.

        But many ridiculous posters here are already mentally drafting a concession speech.  At 4 weeks before the election, that's just crazy talk.  Today, I still find Nate Silver's predictions of an Obama win to be perfectly likely.  Campaigns have high and low tides - this is probably Obama's low tide, sure.  But to admit defeat and roll over onto our backs like a sheepish puppy is way, way, premature.

        "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

        by auron renouille on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:30:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree puppet, but (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thepuppethead, ferg, DarkestHour

      I am more convinced now that President Obama missed an opportunity to knock Romney out - to deliver a fatal blow during the debate that would have ended the race on that night.

      Unfortunately, we've got some hand-wringing and nervousness now creeping back into it and given the Republican party hope, albeit false hope (at this point), that their candidate might actually pull this out. I don't believe that as I agree with Kos' analysis.

      But if Obama had ended it on that night with a strong performance, he could have opened up the race and we'd be talking about the Senate and Congressional seats - not the fate of the presidency.

      To quell the sweaty palms that everyone seems to be having, Biden needs to be Joe Biden and destroy Paul Ryan. Then Obama needs to come out strong and punch Romney in the face and make him back pedal for 90 minutes. That should stop those bedwetters at MSNBC from calling the race even.

      •  Debates are important. (0+ / 0-)

        As we've seen.  And I'm no pundit.  But I don't believe that debates are dispositive... because I hear smart people say that all the time.

        Obama's approval ratings are healthy.  He's got a sizeable war chest.  He knows he screwed up.  Every time I've seen him with his back against the wall, he's managed to turn it around.  Maybe he's one of those people who needs to feel the heat before he can get himself truly fired up.  Dunno.  But the race isn't over, not by a long shot.  And, despite this setback, I still feel positive about things.

        Just gave another 18 bucks.  Let's get this done!

        "I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different." -- Kurt Vonnegut

        by thepuppethead on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:04:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Certainly the race isn't over (0+ / 0-)

          But when you have someone down in a street fight - you don't let them back up.

          But you know what - enough with the debate. Its over and done with. There is the vp on thursday and two more for the prez. Obama needs to hit a home run and once again, try and end this thing. Its all in front of him.

    •  I Agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thepuppethead, wishingwell

      I am not worried.  I believe Romney has now reached his ceiling, with the wiffle-wafflers feeling as positive about him as they're ever going to feel.  

      And I don't care what anyone says, I still believe that this whole Romney-trounced-Obama narrative has been mostly media-driven and as soon as Obama shows a little backbone the media will say Obama has made a comeback, because the horserace is all they really care about.  

  •  Look, these Rs aren't George Romney and (7+ / 0-)

    Jerry Ford Rs.  They are bitter lonely haters, motivated by greed and lust for power.  They care nothing about decency or truth, and if it can't be blown up or bought out, they don't give a shit about it.

    There is not one decent R in Congress, and I include the Maine Senators, who talk a good moderation game, but always vote with the reptiles when it comes down to it.

    So, know who you are dealing with.  They held the national credit rating hostage -- they are terrorists in mind, and in some cases, among their allies in the whack-job world, they are terrorists in deed as well.

    You have exactly 10 seconds to change that look of disgusting pity into one of enormous respect!

    by Cartoon Peril on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:38:22 PM PDT

    •  'if it can't be blown up or bought out' (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cartoon Peril, Sapere aude

      You said it all right there.

      I hate these people like poison.

      •  they aren't worth our hatred, we need to beat them (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        and that means we have to understand them.  The depth of their greed and hatred cannot be overstated.  Look at Wayne LaPierre, a power-mad rich man soaking the sheep who believe his drivel about Obama's alleged tyranny.  Look at the two-faced Michele Bachmann, who helps herself freely at the taxpayer's trough, yet thinks nothing about denouncing "big" government.  And so on ad nauseum

        You have exactly 10 seconds to change that look of disgusting pity into one of enormous respect!

        by Cartoon Peril on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:32:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  But if this narrative takes on a life of its own (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, CoyoteMarti

    Say Obama really did have a better polling weekend.   Still, all we're hearing is "Romney's back!"   and "Romney's ahead!"

    This can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy.   People are told Romney is a winner and start viewing him as such.

  •  Prevent defense never works. (9+ / 0-)

    You gotta move the ball down the field or break up the offense of your opponent and create some opportunities.

  •  Perhaps Biden could reanimate the women issues; (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JerryNA, wishingwell

    as in cutting off health care for women, being against equal pay for equal work, being for banning contraception and so on....and given that mitt and his asshole offspring are into referring to Obama as a boy and a child perhaps Biden could use this line I just thought up....."Ya know folks these two old boys on the republican ticket have great lookin teeth don't they?....the President and I just want to make sure these boys don't use them to bite you where it hurts...'

    •  I think that if Biden commits no gaffes (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      singe, GRLionsFan, wishingwell

      (and that's a big if) and comes off as Ryan's father, that will give wavering whites permission to support Obama.

      I'm optimistic that Biden can come across as the blue-collar corrective to Ryan's smarminess.

      Have you googled Romney today?

      by fou on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:49:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  as an older white male our racist culture permits (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fou, wishingwell, mwm341

        him to express anger and hostility where as males of color need to "button it". i hope biden uses that privilege. but i think he needs to slam ryan and by proxy romney over and over on destroying medicare, social security, not releasing taxes, 47%, and all the stuff that was working before last wednesday. he needs to ignore what ryan says and just hit his talking points over and over like mittens did....

  •  I like this diary. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kptlaurie, Sapere aude

    Pray Kos is correct.  

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:39:48 PM PDT

    •  Glad to see you saying this JC as you were (0+ / 0-)

      really expressing in every comment for several days that you thought the President could not rebound from this and you were feeling very pessimistic.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:47:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama did a lame job, but it was the media that (14+ / 0-)

    blew it...way out of proportion. And our buying into their hype doesn't help. Romney was manic, rude and utterly devoid of honesty. Obama had a bad 90 minutes. Let's not beat this into the ground. We have elections to win.

    Snotty Brown - 2012

    by kitebro on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:40:26 PM PDT

    •  "A bad 90 minutes" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DarkestHour, Williston Barrett

      he sure picked the wrong 90 minutes to screw up.

      this was one of the 5-6 most important points in the campaign, and he didn't show up.

      An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

      by mightymouse on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:49:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't blame the media (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Code Monkey, Williston Barrett

      Although god knows they deserve it. The polls are the polls, and to the extent that the media was responsible for them, not much we can do about it, is there? I take little solace in the idea that if the media had liked Gore or Kerry a bit more, they might have won. Conversely, had the media not like Obama, he might not have won. But since we have little control over that, it's moot.

      "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

      by kovie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:52:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The media could have focused on Romney's (0+ / 0-)

        over-the-top antics. You know, like how they torpedoed Gore for sighing or walking "in a threatening manner" towards Bush back in 2000. They chose to ignore Romney's un-presidential display. Yeah, I'll blame the media. They deserve it.

        Snotty Brown - 2012

        by kitebro on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:55:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But the media can drive the narrative and harp (0+ / 0-)

        on the debates and bash Obama over and over and over again nonstop. The media can drive the discussion and form the narrative.  I think the media narrative plays into the polling to some extent. I agree, it is not all of it but I do think media narrative and constant bashing of the President and some running around with their hair on fire figured into the polling to a small extent.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:49:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  and I'll say it again... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      John R, kitebro, wishingwell

       In 2004 even after his bad performance Bush's supporters/voters had his back ,made excuses for him, were upbeat and on and on but this year? Hell Obama's supporters it seems to me wanna go out and tar & feather him!!!!

      •  His performance highlighted the aspects (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DarkestHour

        of his personality and style that I have a really hard time with. It brought back all of my irritations of the last four years. It made me doubt whether he has any liberal convictions at all.

        How many divisions does OWS have?

        by Diebold Hacker on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:59:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The snap polls (0+ / 0-)

      came back before respondents had time to digest the media response.

      This is on Obama. Stop trying to find excuses.

      His job now is to make the necessary adjustments.

      •  I agree that Romney "won". (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        My point is that having watched the thing myself, I was disappointed in Obama. But he didn't suck as much as the media claims. He was up against a guy who has had at least 15 debates in the past year or so. Obama hadn't had a single debate in almost 4 years. If he turns in another below par performance, I will right there with you in ripping him a new one.

        Snotty Brown - 2012

        by kitebro on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:01:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I said it days ago: panicking is stupid. (9+ / 0-)

    I called the polls tightening throughout this week.  And they have.

    But you can't panic over that, any more than you could panic over a convention bounce.  When all the fundamentals favor your guy, it's just stupid to look at Romney's post-debate glow as anything other than a temporary boost that was bound to recede.  

    The other point to realize is this: Romney showed his hand.  He can't surprise the President again, as he's shown that he'll lie about anything, to his face.  It's obvious that Obama was simply not prepared to have Romney aggressively lying about essentially everything in the debate.  That takes cajones, and it was a gamble for Romney that happened to work once.  Once.  Now, Obama should be prepared to deal with this in their next meeting.

    If he isn't, then everything we've ever learned about the campaigning adroitness of Obama and his crew has apparently been egregiously, incomprehensibly wrong.  He does not make the same mistake twice when it comes to his campaigns.  

    •  People shouldn't panic EVER, under any (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SquirrelQueen, wishingwell

      circumstances. You stop thinking and start acting on pure emotion when you do that, start running in circles, do things that don't make sense, make ineffectual moves, and lose further forward momentum.

      If you were in a burning building, you need to remain calm so you can exit safely and get as many other human beings out as well. It's the cold, rational, and logical ones that will get you out of that building alive. Not the ones on the animal level.

      What the hell is the difference with this election? What has all this panic, arguing, emoting, breast-beating, etc. got us?
      An energy drain that will make us further lose. There are two forces that will gain us the election: Obama and his team,
      and US, with GOTV.  

      Yes, Obama lost, blew it, failed, choked, call it what you will. But if you still want him to be re-elected, declare yourselves, and stop listening to those who perhaps never were his real allies, and who now just want to win an argument on this blog.  If people bail on him now, because they "hate a loser," I want to ask them if they'd bail on their friends and family if they blow it, fail, choke.

      If one of my friends stopped supporting me with one fail or even two or three or four, then I don't want them around anymore, either.

      "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

      by Wildthumb on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:53:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How will he do in the other 2 debates? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    YoungArizonaLiberal

    What seems to be his problem in debates?

  •  We have definitely registered more (7+ / 0-)

    people in ALL of these swing states.  I fully expect that polls who are looking at "likely" voters are missing many new people who are registered simply because they didn't vote before.

    It all comes down to Obama and the debates.  It is up to him to do the damn debate prep so he will do really well in the debates.

    I hope seeing Romney ahead of him in many likely polls will light his fire to get the job done.  He is a 4th quarter player and it is now 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter and you are down by 2 points.  Get it done.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:41:00 PM PDT

    •  Very good point (0+ / 0-)

      Perhaps someone else could clarify this, but my understanding is that a "likely voter" screen is often based on whether someone voted in past elections. Is this the case? If so, that would eliminate newly-registered voters from the screen.

      Once again, Republicans show there is no fact that they feel the need to learn. ~ Fordmandalay

      by MeMeMeMeMe on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:01:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As I understand it, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        A person must be able to say yes to two of the following three:

        1) Voted in '08
        2) Voted in '10
        3) Has an interest in the election of 9 or 10 on a scale of 1-10.

        That may not be every pollster's likely voter screen, but it's the one I know.

        So,
        1) Anyone registered after '10 is disqualified, including anyone aged 18 or 19.
        2) Someone who voted in '08, did not vote in '10, and says they're an 8 or below because they think that anyone who is a 9 or a 10 is one of those freaks that comments on Daily Kos :), is not a likely voter.

        I understand that they need to have something as their likely voter screen and there are good arguments in favor of that one.  But imho, that undercounts Democrats.  Others could argue that Republicans are so angry at Obama after the economy didn't improve enormously after '10 that many of their voters are also newly registered and anxious to vote.  There's all sorts of angles to criticize a likely voter screen.

        I guess I tend not to argue with polls.  Polls are polls.  They're snapshots.  They're often accurate.  They're sometimes inaccurate, and they're occasionally laughably bad.  And, unless the polling methodology is painfully bad (e.g. an opt-in internet poll), I tend to take them at face value for what they are - a useful tool to gauge the state-of-mind of higher-interest voters at the time they are taken, be that 5 days or 5 months before an election.

        Polls are a tool, like any other tool.  Hammers are awesome for pounding nails, but they sometimes destroy the nail and people can even really badly injure themselves with them; sometimes because they failed to take due care, and sometimes because their number was up and they got unlucky.  A poll is just the same - it usually hammers the nail in, sometimes is a little off, and occasionally sends people to the hospital with a broken thumb :).

        "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

        by auron renouille on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:45:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  And we gotta move on from the debate debacle. (10+ / 0-)

    And that means we need to stop showing pictures of stuff Romney said at the debate. It only reminds people that we lost and begs the question "why didnt you say it to his face?"

    Both on the stump and in ads, we need to stop reacting to the debate and start driving a fresh message.

    •  I'm driving the message that Mitt Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      brooklynbadboy, wishingwell

      is a bald-faced liar on Facebook and in my limited voter education :-)  Not just saying it, but posting links that show the number of oil and gas permits approved and shutting down the right wing lie that they have not been approved at all.  I'm posting where the $90 billion green initiative money actually went.  I'm reminding everyone that the green money and the stimulus were as much tax breaks as anything else and they weren't a pallet of cash handed off into the ether (like in Iraq).

      And I am reminding everyone that Mitt Romney's business model is why our country will remain in financial straits.  You can't reward a few people for the work of hundreds.  

      Those may be "old" messages, but they are the "fundamentals" of this election.  And it has swayed a few republicans and depressed the living shit out of many others.

      David Koch is Longshanks, and Occupy is the real Braveheart.

      by PsychoSavannah on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:30:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree with this sentiment. If I hear Big Bird (0+ / 0-)

      one more time, I'm going to scream.

  •  Well said. President Obama (10+ / 0-)

    can win this if he choses to be a partisan fighter in the next debates.  It may not be fair, but analytical arguments don't matter to many people.  They look at body language and tone.   The President can not be above the fight or he will lose.  He was rusty, not fully prepared, and perhaps over confident.  It won't happen again.  

    It's going to be ok.  In the end,  it's up to Barack Obama.  If he brings it, speaks with confidence, calls Romney a liar to his face, and stands up for himself with emotion, he will win.  

    Only fools would bet against Barack Obama.  

    I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

    by TomP on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:41:27 PM PDT

  •  His advisors have said they'll be taking (7+ / 0-)

    a different approach to the next debate - one which involves Obama being more aggressive.

    That's what he needs.

    Paul Ryan tried to kill Medicare. Joe Biden killed bin Laden.

    by ScottyUrb on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:41:32 PM PDT

  •  Who will fight for us? (5+ / 0-)

    So now we're back to the pre-convention nail biter. The winning narrative made by Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, cable shows, late night shows, the progressive netroots...undone by an unengaged President with no sense of urgency on behalf of students, seniors, women, homeowners, veterans, union members, gays and lesbians, small businessfolk, the unemployed, and the working poor.

    I am a 30 year-old bisexual male in a relationship with a guy a few years younger. My boyfriend, a survivor of childhood abuse, has Type I diabetes from resultant autoimmune stress. Recently laid off, he only gets the insulin that keeps him alive due to Obamacare: he is able to be on his mom's plan and cannot be dropped due to his pre-existing condition. He wants to go to pharmacy school and is reliant on student loan assistance. My student loans help pay for the graduate school I attend at night after my 9-10 hour workday. We want to marry and build a life as responsible parents and civic contributors. Romney and the Tea Party would close the doors of opportunity to us: our chance at marriage and the stability it brings, his access to health care, our educational and financial advancement are all at stake.

    This new, fringe right Republican Party does not believe the promise of America applies to my boyfriend and I, but we don't get to challenge Romney and the GOP's selfish, narrow agenda in front of 70 million people. Obama needs to understand that he is standing on that debate stage for all of us.

    I believe he is up to the task. But he needs to remember this not only in the next two debates, but also after he wins. You cannot give Republicans one INCH of breathing room. Why does he still not get it?

  •  I loved this part (4+ / 0-)
    But conservatives didn't care, because one, they know Romney is malleable and they'd be able to shape him like silly putty, and two, they'd embrace Bernie Sanders if the Vermont socialist went on stage and punched Obama.

    These are the times that try our patience, and our relationships with Muppet characters.

    by SpamNunn on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:42:11 PM PDT

  •  K-Man, you could sell sand to Saudi Arabia (0+ / 0-)

    I hope you're right, but this 'favorability' riff ignores the other side's hatred for Obama.  

    But who the hell knows?

    I wish someone could dig up some internal-polling rumors, like the ones that had Obama in the Ohio driver's seat.

    I agree that the way CNN is acting today, they're gonna have R-R up in Ohio.  

  •  When you get down to it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rbird, doroma, GRLionsFan

    the national tracking polls are immaterial.

    Ohio.  Florida.  Pennsylvania.  Colorado.  

    Those polls matter.  National polls don't predict election, state polling does.

    Minority rights should never be subject to majority vote.

    by lostboyjim on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:43:25 PM PDT

  •  Let's all just relax (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    YoungArizonaLiberal, JerryNA, rbird

    Let's just all have a glass of wine, relax for a few days, let Biden wipe the floor with Ryan, wait for some new polling...and the GOP will be back yelling poll-fraud.

  •  DELETE MY FUCKING CONCILIATION KOS! (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, mightymouse, JerryNA, 42, cheerio2, mkor7

    Also, Mitt Romney left office with a 34% approval rating and will lose that state by 30 points.  That's what the people he governed think of him.  Maybe someone could point that out in a debate or something.

    Keep Calm and Carry On. But kick some unholy ass if the situation warrants.

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:43:45 PM PDT

  •  How'd Obama Suck So Badly in Front of 70 Million? (0+ / 0-)

    I'm still coming to grips with this.  Instead of flogging Romney with the facts for 90 minutes, Obama just shot a few hoops and generally played pocket pool.  He'd better find his other testicle before Round 2 or the Mormon mannequin will lie his way to the White House.  I am incredulous still how the President just fricking stood there.  Take the damn gloves off!  Get in Willard's face and pound his ass!  Geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!

    •  From the very beginning of the debate, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      zizi

      when Rmoney laid that $5 trillion tax cut whopper of a lie on the table, it was plain as day that a serious discussion was not going to happen.  So, Obama had a choice:  waste time on Rmoney and his lies, or use his time as best he could to get his thoughts and ideas across.  While I would have liked him to seem a little more....animated....I thought he did a good job.  It was 90 minutes.  I've had trouble posting all the links to Mitt's demonstable lies for 3 days now on Facebook :-)

      David Koch is Longshanks, and Occupy is the real Braveheart.

      by PsychoSavannah on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:35:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's trump card has always been favorability. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, CoyoteMarti, mightymouse, a2nite

    People don't like Mitt. What did happen at the debate is that Mitt looked competent and like he had ideas (even if he did just pull them from his rectum). Prior to the debate, people didn't like Romney, but they also thought he was a bumbling fool.

    So he managed to get over one of his two biggest hurdles.

    But he is still not likeable.

    One thing I have always noticed about Obama in debates -- particularly in formats like the one last week -- is that he doesn't smile much, if at all. His smile is one of his best attributes and it's a reason why people like him and trust him.

    I really wonder why his debate coaches don't get him to smile more. When Romney is lying, Obama should smile, then calmly correct Romney's lie. Not shake his head, mind you (ala, Al Gore), but just smile.

  •  Tweet from Nate Silver (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, CoyoteMarti, ferg, Losty

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:44:21 PM PDT

  •  OK, Kos (0+ / 0-)

    I'll buy this. I'm going to try to ignore all polls that were in the field last Thursday & Friday.

    But if by early next week Obama isn't doing any better, I think we are finished.

  •  Thanks for this. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm getting damned sick of the Eeyores areound here. They're saying "If this happened a month ago, I wopuldn't freak, but..." Rubbish! If this happened a month ago, we'd see the same pearl-clutching, get me the smelling salts act.

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:45:13 PM PDT

  •  Thanks Kos (0+ / 0-)

    Your informed optimism is much needed and appreciated.

    I was worried that the pile on of good Romney polls is going to create its own momentum. So, it is reassuring that we at least get a set of polls after debate and before Pew dropped which will say the bump is flattening to counter act media delight with switch in lead (and subsequent impact on the field).

    So, maybe see saw for a bit and back to tied.

    It's hard to get over PBO's f'up. It was so self-inflicted and unncessary. But, get over he and we must.

    He's lucky - I guess -that the second debate is next week and not this week and he has some time to wade through/wait this crap out.

    Fellow Kossacks though, a request: stop pollyanning the news. It doesn't help anyone (at least me). No point in looking for rainbows. Better to know the real deal so we can do something about it.

    Where is the campaign right now? They need to talk to their base in a real positive way instead of just focusing on big bird.  It's OK to say "recent polls say we're in a tight race, we always have been but we can win this thing if we GOTV in Ohio and Iowa. Help us do that."

    More emails about Citizens United and ads are not what is needed. I will shut up now.

  •  By the fundementals, Obams should be +2% (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward

    The fact that he was 4 - 6 % ahead was a testament to the massive calamity of the Romney campaign, not to mention the 47% tape.

    These expectations continued with the debate. Most people were expecting a huge win by Obama.

    Obviously, that didn't happen. Frankly, I don't think he did that bad, with the exception of looking down and shaking his head, and his lame closing. I also think he was thrown off by the new and improved "left wing Mitt".

    The result - a massive OVER correction. He should have gained around 2%. Right now it's closer to 4 - 5%. And by all accounts this is fading.

    Resulting in ... A TIED race! Pew is an outlier, everything else is +1 to +2 Romney, all of which include horrible numbers for Thurs. to Sat. last week. Romney is not massively ahead. He pulled it even, temporarily.

    The best advice - wait till next week, especially the Daily Kos/PPP poll. If this bounces back, it's gonna be okay.

    Of course, if Biden and Obama lay a couple more debate eggs, ...

  •  I like Kos, I get why he wrote this, but it's... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    janderso, Williston Barrett

    ...dishonest.

    The 3 Day IBD poll, ARG, and Ras were NOT in the field on Thursday and Friday. They were sat-sun-mon polls. The 3 day gallup poll released yesterday was fri-sat-sun.

    Also, there are hints online from various washington folks that the internals are continuing to deteriorate - that's why Chuck Todd is talking about Obama shaking up staff right now.

    On the plus side, there are lots of arrows for Obama to use but if Romney is smart he won't fall into the trap. The most potent one would be drumming up some war on woman issue - but I get the feeling Romney won't fall for it considering he doesn't have to worry about his base right now.

    Create some fake polls and get them out there, because if this fear turns into a panic the polls could turn into a surge for the challenger.

    •  well to be fair (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bridav58

      Ras is ras. They've shown the exact same numbers all race. Also, ARG,assomeone pointed out had Romney leading in their national poll in Sept as well. Ibd there's a bit of a shift but if I remember correctly, Obama wasn't winning by like 1 in their last one, so its a moe shift. I haven't heard anything about the internals starting to crater but we will see. I'm not gonna stop working.

    •  Not entirely correct (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, bridav58

      The IBD is a 7 day tracker (10/2-8) and included the bad days, ARG was Oct. 5-8 and also included the worst day.

    •  No!!! (0+ / 0-)

      The  3 day Gallup poll was 10/4-6 so ead again. I seen the IBD poll and it reached back a week according to the ink I seen on RCP. Rasmussen? rasmussen had him Romney up 2 last week now it's tied.Rassy even admitted the bounce seems to be fading. ARG? Very R leaning.

    •  here's a link to IBD/TIPP (0+ / 0-)

      http://news.investors.com/...

        The dates are from 10/2 to 10/8 so it does include results from 10/4-5 the best for Romney,worst for Obama.

      •  and to the Gallup 3 day tacker.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash

        http://www.gallup.com/...

           The dates are from 10/4 to 10/6 again as per best for Romney,worst for Obama.

          How come you aren't breinging up PP's poll showing Obama +3 in VA? Rasmussen showing Obama in front for the first time this year in Iowa & Colorado? rasmussen also conducted some polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia on the 4th-5th and the needle had hardly moved at all in those states.

    •  Boy (0+ / 0-)

      as people above have noted, you were pretty much wrong about everything.

      ARG wasn't a tracker, and they're the worst pollster in the biz after R2K was busted for fraud. But in any case, I was talking about trackers, and their poll was in the field on Friday (10/5-8).

      IBD is a seven-day. Read the fine print. And it's brand new, debuting today, so we don't have the before and after trends.

      Ras has WRITTEN about how the Romney bounce has disappeared. They had Obama +2 pre-debate, then Romney +2 post debate, and now tied. See here.

      And Gallup ... I inserted THEIR chart. +5 Obama pre-debate, then tied post debate, and now back to +5 Obama.

      Seriously, before freaking out on someone's data, make sure you know what you're talking about.

  •  "Debate performance" covers a lot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    In many ways the debates changed the substance of the race.  Yes, Obama can get back on top with a superior debate next 2 performances.  But he will not simply need to  pass the compulsory exersizes he failed last time (declarative sentences, body language, defending past record, setting forth future vision and correcting misstatements about his record) he also needs to find the reason d'etre for his presidency.  The absence of that foundation is what allowed all the rest of the problems to occur at the last debate.  If the president and / or O-12 can find that, it will also give yem the organizational theme they need to close this campaign out.  Right now they still seem
    shellshocked and uncertain how to reassert control over the dialogue with the country

  •  Silver lining, as far as I'm concerned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, ferg

    I was beginning to worry we were peaking a little soon, leaving a month for Republican pols and voters to get more desperate and cornered and dangerous. Won't hurt at all to have the complacency on the other foot for awhile.

    As to upcoming debate performance - with Biden, who knows, could be very very good or could be horrid. If he makes a gaffe it could be a doozy, though.

    In the second Presidential debate, since it is townhall format, Obama should do pretty well. It's the kind of setting that energizes him, and it's not a format Mitt is likely to do as well with.  

    The third and final debate may be more worrisome. It's in the same format as the first, which seems to play favorably for Romney. On the other hand, Obama will presumably be better prepared - and won't be disadvantaged by things like altitude, or (fingers crossed) near outbreak of hostilities between countries in volatile regions.

    "...you can’t find any oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft, because the windows don’t open. I don’t know why they don’t do that. It’s a real problem." Mitt Romney

    by Catte Nappe on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:46:47 PM PDT

  •  "The Fundamentals of the Economy are Strong" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    --John McCain

    Just jiving you Kos!  I agree with your analysis.

    We have the elite, smart people on our side.

    by fearisthemindkiller on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:47:04 PM PDT

  •  Some Thoughts (9+ / 0-)

    I've been a serial optimist here, and I will not shy away from my fundamental prediction that we will win this race comfortably in the end.

    Here are 5 reasons why:

    1. Obama has a firewall of states that Romney cannot breakthrough in. Pennsylvania and Michigan simply are not within Romney's grasps, even if a few right-leaning pollsters say they are 3-4 point races. Romney doesn't have the financial resources to play in either of these states.

    2. Obama has a serious financial edge. Has anyone noticed that the Romney campaign has not come out with their fundraising totals for September yet? That tells me they must have raised, combined with the RNC, less than 100 million dollars.  Romney's actual campaign fund was already very short on cash compared to Obama's, and the lack of direct advertising in the swing states the past few weeks is a major problem for him. Obama is airing significantly more adds in states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, and the Superpacs really haven't started spending like many thought.

    3. Obama has clear leads, even post-debate, in states like Wisconsin and Iowa. Rasmussen was the only pollster in the last 5 months to show Romney ahead in Iowa, and just a few days ago, he showed Obama winning. Romney hasn't led a single Nevada poll all year, and has trailed in virtually every poll out of New Hampshire, too. Romney's spending in New Hampshire is miniscule at this stage, which tells me they clearly don't see it as a legitimate pick-up chance. Two more huge boons for Obama: Democrats have a voter registration edge in Nevada that is virtually impossible for a hapless state GOP to overcome and early voting in Iowa (where nearly 10% of the potential electorate have already voted) shows Democrats outpacing Republicans by MASSIVE margins.  

    4. OFA organization is outstanding. They will target and bank millions of early votes in Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and other swing states. This will be enough to win close contests within 2 points on election day.

    5. Obama is a 4th quarter superstar. What Markos didn't mention in his blog post above was that whenever Obama has seemed listless, or had a setback, he always eventually pivots, recovers, and ends up on top. There are so many instances of this President having his back against the wall before delivering, that it's actually a bit comical. I expect this to be the case once again this month.

  •  Ignoramus? (2+ / 0-)

    Way back during the GOP primaries everyone was talking about how Romney would pivot back to the center during the general election despite his "severely conservative" comment. Didn't Team Obama know about that? Why not be prepared beforehand for the first debate for this potential shift in Romney tactics? If Team Obama blows this election despite a bucketload of Romney gaffe's it would be disastrous for the Democratic Party the way Reagan scarred it for years.

  •  Concur. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AuntieRa

    Don't Roofrack Me, Bro

    Peace?

    by aoeu on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:47:17 PM PDT

  •  Hmmm Kos. I hope you don't have to (0+ / 0-)

    eat this diary!

    Four years earlier, "The fundamentals of our econonmy are strong." John McCain

    CRASH.

    Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.

    by winter outhouse on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:49:02 PM PDT

  •  It's puzzling that Obama never learns (7+ / 0-)

    He tried the prevent defense against Hillary and lost every time, but won when he went on the offensive. He tries to be nice towards Republican and all post-partisan and gets a slap in the face in return and loses the 2010 elections in a landslide, then becomes more partisan and agressive and successful but then goes back to being a mealy mouthed professorial postpartisan, and of course loses badly in the debate.

    I understand that being a progressive warrior is not in his blood, but he should at least try making an impression that he is passionate about progressive policies and ideas and that these differ from conservative ideas.

    Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

    by Joe B on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:49:05 PM PDT

    •  in hindsight... (0+ / 0-)

      i've wondered if he rose up too quickly from Senator Obama to President Obama.  did he really have enough time in the Senate to get a sense of how conniving the Republicans really can be?  we lost some ground when it was assumed Republicans would work with him.  day one and McConnell's comment couldn't have been more clear on their intent.

      I'm a blue drop in a red bucket.

      by blue drop on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:46:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It shouldn't have to take (0+ / 0-)

        being in the Senate for more than a microsecond to figure that one out.  In fact, it doesn't take being in the Senate at all.  It was obvious as far back as 2007, when the Dems took back Congress.  Republican filibusters shot up IMMEDIATELY and remained at historic highs.  Any fool could have seen this coming.  This fool saw it, in any event, and I ain't no Senator.

    •  actually, it's his responsibility to do it. (0+ / 0-)

      act like a warrior for us peeps.

      "Say little; do much." (Pirkei Avot: 1:15)

      by hester on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:51:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Puzzling, yes. And irritating, exasperating.. (0+ / 0-)

      How many divisions does OWS have?

      by Diebold Hacker on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:27:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yes, Obama can (0+ / 0-)

    Obama can do it.  He can win.  But only if he goes for the win.  Is he in it to win it, or because it's election time?  
    It is now the moment for the opposite of his 2008 closing "You are the ones", for "he is the only one" that can convince all those voters that he shook off in the debate that he still has what it takes.
    Forget the strategy, the stance, the routine, the poll-tested, the wrote; go for the gut.  It is dog-fight-time, time to growl and go for the jugular.

  •  Oh the snark bites, has such teeth dear! (0+ / 0-)

    But I will refrain, because it would be too easy and lead to too many wasted electrons. I'll just add this, since commenting is down on Digby:

    What Kos said.
    However, someday I want to know why Obama hates fighting. Is it genuinely characterologic, something he was born with and/or acquired over time? Is it strategic, the belief that finesse leads to better outcomes? Is it denial? Fear?

    Altitude sickness?

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:49:39 PM PDT

  •  Obama has to win the next debates. (0+ / 0-)

    Obama has to or these loses will become permanent. if the polls can shift this quickly, they can shift back just as fast. He knows what he is up against. He has to expose Romney as a liar who cannot be trusted Its not an easy task but it can be done!!

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:50:11 PM PDT

  •  If kos had posted this sentiment as a comment.. (4+ / 0-)

    ..he'd be accused of being an OMFG Whiner!

    Some folks have indicated that he can't be more aggressive because of his skin color.  I disagree with that.

    Some folks have indicated that he actually won the debate, because Romney lied.  I have to laugh at that.

    Some folks think people will be instinctively turned off by Romney, and Obama should play it safe.  Wow.

    I agree with Kos.. bring it, Obama.  It's really all up to you.  If you let Romney win, he will.

    When extra-terrestrial beings make their first appearance on our planet, and ask for representatives of our species to best exemplify humanity, I'm sending a nurse, a librarian, and a firefighter.

    by Wayward Son on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:51:20 PM PDT

  •  Some thoughts (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mkor7, DuzT, Williston Barrett

    And as we've seen time and time again, every time Obama shies away from standing firm he gets burned, and he got burned badly.

    I'm really disappointed that Obama hasn't learned in four years that he is going to get burned when he doesn't stand firm.  

    Also, the next four years are going to be just as tough as the first four years, if not worse - because big decisions on the budget, Supreme Court, etc., are going to be on the table.   I really hope Obama takes this debate to heart.  

    Obama can't allow the debate on his 20th wedding  anniversary be the beginning of the end of his Presidency, and I hope he comes out like Muhammad Ali, who floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee.  I hope Mrs Obama makes sure he is properly rested, prepared, and pep-talked up the next time round.

    I hope that the audience for the next two debates is just as large, and that Obama does much, much better.  His message has to be targeted to the low information voter, who were so easily impressed by Romney in the first debate.  If Obama concedes that he will never convince** about 30% of the voters, and speaks to the 70% clearly and forcefully (using Bill Clinton's DNC speech as a model), makes it clear that Romney is like jello and can't be pinned down to anything definite, and cannot be trusted, I think he will be in good shape.

    ** I think Obama mutes his message trying to not offend the 30% - who hate him anyway.   He has a good story to tell about his first term, and it really boggles me that until Clinton's DNC speech, neither he nor his surrogates have been able to articulate it.

    •  I hope the president doesn't try to make a joke (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Arun

      in the second debate about his performance in the first debate.
      I can imagine team O working on a clever, disarming reference to it that could backfire.  I think all it would do is unnecessarily remind people about it.  

      I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

      by DuzT on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:33:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The president's 2nd debate will turn this around (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DuzT

    He's now poised to greatly exceed expectations. he's going to sock Romney with 47%, vouchercare, social security privitization, and everything else america hates romney/the gop platform. Mark my words, 2 weeks from today we'll back in a strong position and 'pubs will again be "unskewing" the polls. bank on it!

    •  I'm betting someone in the audience will ... (0+ / 0-)

      ..bring up the 47% thing.  
      "Governor Romney, I paid into Social Security for 42 years and now it's the only thing keeping a roof over my head.  Am I a taker sir?"
      "Governor Romney, I lost my legs on my third tour of duty in Iraq.  Am I not worthy of the benefits I currently receive?'
      And so forth.

      I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

      by DuzT on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:38:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Defensiveness is not the most helpful attitude. (0+ / 0-)

    The Pundit Bounce (and really that's what it is - neither Romney's actual performance nor Obama's had anything to do with it) is Romney's silver lining on a picture that overwhelmingly bode ill for him - the smallness of that bounce is not our silver lining on some dark horizon, and it's silly and a bit disgusting to hear it framed in those terms.  

    Everything there is to know about the GOP: They're the Bad Guys.

    by Troubadour on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:53:54 PM PDT

    •  Bullshit about the Pundit Bounce. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisePiper, DuzT

      If the only reason people thought Romney won were that pundits told them so, then the snap polls wouldn't have shown that he won.

      When people were asked immediately after the debate who won, they said Romney. Overwhelmingly. Whatever pundits have done to give Romney momentum lately, creating the idea that Romney won was not one of them. And solid debate performances usually do move the polls, albeit temporarily.

      Code Monkey like freedom / Code Monkey like peace and justice too
      Code Monkey very nerdy man / With big warm fuzzy bleeding heart
      Code Monkey like you!

      Formerly known as Jyrinx.

      by Code Monkey on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:03:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You mean, after watching the pundits orgasm (0+ / 0-)

        all over the screen about Mitt Romney's creepy Reanimator-like behavior as if it were Lincoln-Douglas and Romney was Lincoln?  Uh, yeah, that's called a Pundit Bounce - stupid people will believe anything if it's packaged as anything.

        Everything there is to know about the GOP: They're the Bad Guys.

        by Troubadour on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:29:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dunno about that. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Code Monkey

          I am a huge supporter of president Obama and I didn't need any pundits to tell me he performed poorly at the debate.
          Of course it did NOT change my voting intentions.

          I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

          by DuzT on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:41:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Did you think Romney performed well? (0+ / 0-)

            Acting like a 15-year-old brat who'd had too many Red Bulls?

            Well, the pundits did.  Hence, Pundit Bounce.

            Everything there is to know about the GOP: They're the Bad Guys.

            by Troubadour on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:43:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, a sizable majority of respondents (0+ / 0-)

              to the snap polls thought exactly that, or at least that he performed better than Obama.

              Code Monkey like freedom / Code Monkey like peace and justice too
              Code Monkey very nerdy man / With big warm fuzzy bleeding heart
              Code Monkey like you!

              Formerly known as Jyrinx.

              by Code Monkey on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:11:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  After listening to the pundits masturbate. (0+ / 0-)

                Tell you what - conduct an experiment: Have three groups of people watch the same performance of an Olympic gymnast who won the godal medal, only don't let them see the score she got or any audience response.

                Group 1: Watches without commentary.
                Group 2: Watches with the actual commentary that accompanied the performance.
                Group 3: Watches with a fake commentary that makes up all sorts of flaws, and has fake moments of dismay and gasps about supposed mistakes.

                Then have the groups watch another gymnast who didn't even win a medal, in the same event, and was roundly criticized for her performance.

                Group 1: No commentary.
                Group 2: Actual commentary.
                Group 3: Fake coverage gushing in ecstasy, gasping in awe at supposed high points and completely ignoring or speaking dismissively of mistakes.

                Now compare how the three groups rated the two performances.  What kind of snap poll do you think would come from Group 3?

                Everything there is to know about the GOP: They're the Bad Guys.

                by Troubadour on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:37:30 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  *eyeroll* No. I mean *immediately.* (0+ / 0-)

          Unless pundits were punditizing during the debate, people would not have had time to get spun before the phone rang.

          (IIRC, in 2008 the pundits' immediate reaction to at least one debate was much more equivocal before the snap polls came in and showed Obama winning. Kos was crowing about how the introduction of snap polling was preventing pundits from deciding who won. And they didn't decide this time, either.)

          Code Monkey like freedom / Code Monkey like peace and justice too
          Code Monkey very nerdy man / With big warm fuzzy bleeding heart
          Code Monkey like you!

          Formerly known as Jyrinx.

          by Code Monkey on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:09:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  to optimisic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Losty, DuzT

    The better the polls get for Romney the more he looks like a winner the more support he will get. Unless democrats get enthused we are all screwed because Romney is at best incompetent and he is surrounded by the worst of the Bush people.
    I cannot believe the people in this country are this ignorant.

  •  Obama knows he EF'ed up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mkor7

    At least according to the stuff I've read from the usual MSM/Obama campaign output.  First couple days after the debate, Obama was so pissed at his own performance, he couldn't even joke about it - I know how he feels, my first thesis defense was a complete fubar on my part.  But yesterday he was over the self-anger and joked about it during a speech.

    At least he's aware of the problem.  Part of the problem (wish I could find the link), according to a campaign insider, he really, really fucking hates Romney.  With that in mind, a short message to the man.

    Dear Prez,

    Did you not watch one Star Wars movie?  Embrace the Dark Side.  Your hate makes you strong!!!  I want to see Darth Obama force-choke the living shit out of Romney!  You don't know the power of the Dark Side!

    Cordially,
    A Kossack

    Please feel free to HR me for my informative and argumentative nature. 'To know what is right and to do it are two different things.' - Chushingura, a tale of The Forty-Seven Ronin

    by rbird on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:56:02 PM PDT

  •  What a LOSER Thread! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    acadia

    This whole entry reads like a hyper-partisan who knows they're losing the momentum game, but who just won't admit it.

    It's okay to admit that we don't know if this is Romney's high point or not. Maybe this is as close as he gets, Biden comes out strong, Obama comes out strong next week, and Obama closes the deal.

    Or, maybe Ryan holds his own with Biden, befuddling him as Romney did Obama, and we start to see more swing state polls go marginally red, like the recent results in CO, VA, NC, FL and OH.

    I'm sorry, but this is 2000 all over again now. Romney used the first debate to shake the etch-a-sketch and our side went to sleep. So now we have to fight for 50+1.

    We've got a horse race, and since their base is more energized than ours, we have to get out there and actually pile people into cars, tell them what's at stake, drive them down to the polling places, and make sure they vote.

    It's Obama's young base that is faltering here, so if a close race doesn't wake them up, nothing will other than you physically dragging them down to vote.

    •  UHHH??? (0+ / 0-)

       Have you even read Rasmussen???Gallup??? PPP??? They all seem to say that Obama started recovering since   Saturday.  Rasmussen ,even Rasmussen had Obama -2 in September , then Obama +2 just right before the debate, then Romney +2 after Thursday & Friday now it's tied. His state polls of Florida, Virginia and Ohio on those two darkest of Obama's days barely moved the needle. Rasmussen's polls show  Obama ahead in Iowa & Colorado for the first time all cycle .

  •  I'm expecting the wave of republican spin (0+ / 0-)

    after the VP debate to be something along the lines of governing based on emotion rather than governing based on logic and reasoning. I'm starting to hear some of their sycophants let that spill out already.

    To bad for them they don't want to admit that Joe is both really really smart, AND he has a huge heart.

    These capitalists generally act harmoniously and in concert, to fleece the people... -Abraham Lincoln

    by HugoDog on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:57:07 PM PDT

  •  this is a marathon not a sprint (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InformedDiva

    the polls should be viewed on a 7 to 10 day basis not a few days picture, the debate was one week ago tomorrow night so all the polls show romneys initial bump, wait for a few more days to see things level off, the big thing is the vp debate on thursday, that should be the focus nothing else.

  •  Wolf just had an orgasm preview the CNN Ohio poll (0+ / 0-)

    I suspect it may not be good for us.

  •  Debate 2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dr Swig Mcjigger, DuzT

    One thing the Pres. must do is look Romney directly in the eye.  In the first debate, the President seemed to address the audience - the right thing to do generally speaking.  But Romney is a liar and a bully and nothing works except direct, unapologetic confrontation - politely put, of course.  But it is critical to face him directly.

  •  That sounds a bit too much like McCain on (0+ / 0-)

    The economy.

  •  That's something to feel better about. (0+ / 0-)

    It stung to hear what the media was saying about Mr. Obama the last few days, but it's all GOP hype.

    The Republicans are backed into a corner.  The media is invested in rooting for Romney. The RW is carpet bombing every type of telecommunications media with deceptive ads.  It isn't a surprise that they would push for any meme that would make the GOP candidate look better.

    We know that they are going to do this.  So, there's nothing else to do but GOTV and keep on keeping on.

    "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

    by politicalceci on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:00:41 PM PDT

  •  CNN- 51 - 45 LV for Obama (8+ / 0-)

    According to a tweet from Sam Stein

  •  Great News (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, Supavash

    Maybe that will stop the panic?

  •  I have his back (3+ / 0-)

    ...been down this road too many times. he knows in his heart what he has to do and if there is one thing I am sure of, he's not listening to the talking head/pundit class.

    he knew when he ran that in order to make a difference and make historical change he needed a second term. he as much as anyone else knows how important to the country that his reelection is and he is not going to let us down.

    lies, $1.5 billion spent against him and little support from the msm, the right wants this desperately.

    rather than piss. moan, whine and complain, I am headed to FLA to work the phones, knock on doors and drive people to the polls......and no I am not retired. I am taking a leave of absence.....too important to sit home.

    thanks, Kos, for the perspective.

  •  Its the Leadership factor (0+ / 0-)

    Hi First time poster - long time reader.

    What struck me about the debate is that Obama did not look like he wanted to be there. And no wonder. I mean man to man he blew it big time - I don't mean to the public, but more importantly to Michelle. 20th Anniversaries only come around once and you can't tell me that he could not have negotiated a different date long ago. I do not think that this is a trivial thing to Obama. One thing more important to the Presidency for him is his family. His comment that it "won't happen next year" could be interpreted a number of ways. Add to that the flare up in Syria just before the debate started, I am sure he had to be asking himself, "Why am I here debating this idiot?" I do feel for him.

    But Romney clearly won because he looked like a leader and Obama did not. What America wants right now is a leader - it does not matter much if they lie being one. This is why the DNC so out shined  the RNC - the DNC showcased a clear sense of leadership. This was abundantly clear in the reaction to the moment when Obama said, "I am the Presdent" which was not meant to be an applause line. The oxygen was sucked out of the room! The people so want a leader. This is what Obama needs to portray.

    •  Romney didn't look like a leader... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doroma, reginahny, DuzT

      ...he looked like a frenetic bully. Now it's true that to some people that may look like a leader. Bullies have followers after all, but please if we are going to be real we can say that Obama performed badly, but to say that Romney looked like a leader is to completely misunderstand what a leader looks like.

      •  Not a leader in my eyes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DuzT

        But it fits in Josh Marshall "bitch slap" theory. My main point is that a show of strong leadership is what gets the reaction in this race. Republicans understand this. The DNC gave me hope that the Dems now did too. They need to show more of the swagger that was so tangible at there. I hope this was just an off night for Obama who rightfully at that moment likely wanted to be away from that stage. He really should not have scheduled this on the night of his 20th Anniversary. Not much excuse for that and he knew it.

        •  My wife and I had our 20th anniversary this year (0+ / 0-)

          And you know what?  We both had to work that day.  She had day shift and I worked late.  It sucked but neither of us would have asked for or been given a pass for half-assing it at work.
          Whatever the reasons for it, the president and his people know they hurt themselves.  I'm confident it won't be repeated.

          I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

          by DuzT on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:59:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Romney didn't look like a leader lol... (0+ / 0-)
    •  why did he even agree to the date? (0+ / 0-)

      one day on either side of his anniversary should have been amenable to his team.

      I'm a blue drop in a red bucket.

      by blue drop on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:38:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  N.E. Jim: (0+ / 0-)

    'Hints online from various Washington folks that the internals are continuing to deteriorate ...'

    Well that would suck ... I really would like to know what the campaign thinks, for real.  

  •  Kos, yours is an accurate description (0+ / 0-)

    of the way I feel about the debate and its aftermath, and its depressing after affect on me. The voice that keeps going on inside my head, in regards to his debate performance, 'if Obama doesn't really want it, why do I want to give it to him?'

    It's a crazy thought, but he made me think it.

  •  Here's an idea (6+ / 0-)

    Instead of opening every freakin' "poll post" with a self defeating paragraph like:

    There's no doubt that President Barack Obama took a serious hit from his crappy debate performance. Not only did he let Mitt Romney walk all over him verbally and rhetorically, hyper-motivating the conservative base, not only did he demoralize base Democrats itching for a fighter, but he gave the media a reason to quit the "Romney is a loser" talk.

    Here's an alternative:

    There's no doubt that President Obama took a serious hit due to his subdued, but honest debate performance. Not only did an arrogant, lying sociopath promote so many lies that they couldn't have been debunked in the time frame; he motivated those who think lying is winning -- and he demoralized some Democrats itching for the President to be who has never said he was -- and he gave not "the media" but a cadre of self important PUNDITS a reason to continue to lie, prevaricate, and push a horse-race meme that benefits their wallets and bottom line.

    In my world, a person whose every second word, or every word is a LIE does not "win" a debate, or "win" anything. Romney is not only a loser, he's an opportunistic liar who wouldn't know a principle if it smacked him. This community going on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and even having to preface an "in our favor" diary with this disgusts me. How about leaving out the hysterics and the REPEATING OF RIGHT WING MEMES and just opening the diary with: the race is in our favor.

    This site has more pearl clutching and self-defeating diaries, lead ins, soul searching, false equivelancy post-debate blood letting than freepers. Please for the love of the election, move on. You can post a diary about good information without: "let's be clear, the president sucked, He sucked hard. He sucked so hard. He sucked. We're all gonna die. He sucked one time. His policies will never outweigh his suckyness. Oh my god. He sucked, so hard."

    "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

    by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:07:23 PM PDT

  •  They need to get rid of Kerry - the man just isn't (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, steelman, DuzT

    smart enough, nor aggressive enough.  Not a bad fellow, but Obama needs to spar with the likes of a Governor Dean.  Maybe even look outside the box. Ed Schultz perhaps.  Ed would toughen him up.

    Yet, the silver lining in all of this is that Obama knows he let us down.  He should also remember the first years of his presidency when he tried to compromise with those devil Republicans.  They spit in his eye.

    The president finally gave up on the compromise tactic  and looked to his base.  The base knows that Republicans always look out for rich, first and foremost.  

    Democrats have watched decade after decade the Republicans indifference to the middle-class and middle-class values.  That's why we elected Barack Obama.  

    The striking and most disturbing thing is the Republican attitude towards their new minted Manchurian.  Isn't there just a little trepidation as to who and what constitutes the new Mitt Manchu?  Frankly, they should be worried about being thrown under the bus if this pod candidate was to win this election.  

    Mitt comes first, Mormons second, there is no third.

    Still, we are just in the 1st quarter with 3 more quarters to go.  Plenty of time left on the clock.  

  •  Stay strong (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    reginahny, DuzT

    In 2008, everyday there was a story in the media of how Obama had a new problem and how Obama was somehow blowing the election.

    With the exception of a poor debate performance, TeamObama has run a flawless campaign in 2012.

    With 30 days left in the campaign, now is not the time for a complete freakout.  The other side will do all they can to spin things out of proportion and to change the narrative.

    Stay strong.

  •  CNN poll of Ohio (8+ / 0-)

    Obama 51, Romney 47

    Obama still ahead by four after lousiest week ever in must-wiin state for Romney.

    Game over.

    •  Thank you good sir or madam ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kaneblues, reginahny, InformedDiva

      Excellent news.

    •  it is not game over! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Williston Barrett

      ...honestly, how can you say that?

      there actually are ways Obama can lose with winning Ohio, he hasn't won Ohio yet and dropped quite a bit there, and a 269-269 tie with Obama winning Ohio is also possible. What if Obama wins Ohio and loses Michigan?

      MI seems more in play now, CO and NV are not in the bag, either.

      "An inglorious peace is better than a dishonorable war." -Mark Twain

      by humanistique on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:22:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  jeez (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DuzT

        There is no way in the world Obama wins Ohio but loses Michigan. If he loses Michigan, he'll have lost Ohio, too, not to mention Wisconsin and Minnesota.... Yes, technically, Obama can lose even if he wins Ohio, but Iowa and Nevada are bluer than Ohio, so it would be unlikely for him to win the former without the latter. Put it this way: if Obama wins Ohio, Romney has to draw to an inside straight to win.

        •  no way in the world? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DuzT, Williston Barrett

          ...please.

          i forgot...IA is also not in the bag, and FL and VA and NC are much slimmer chances now.

          i'm hopeful and will work hard and continue to donate, but people need to stop pretending Obama can't easily lose this election. clearly, he can. whether something is "unlikely" doesn't really mean much.

          "An inglorious peace is better than a dishonorable war." -Mark Twain

          by humanistique on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:11:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Romney is not going to win in Michigan. (0+ / 0-)

            And Debbie Stabenow is going to crush that dickhead Pete Hoekstra too.

            I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

            by DuzT on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:06:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  you need to understand some things... (0+ / 0-)

             Obama won Indiana in 08 because he carried the nation by 7% he couldn't have won that state if he was just winning nationally by say 1-2%. Further if Obama is loosing in Michigan,Pennsylvania,probably Wisconsin & Iowa then h'es probably not going to win Ohio. One other thing is if Romney is even just competitive or even just slightly tied in say Florida,North Carolina and Virginia then he' in trouble.

      •  Its game over because it can't do anything (0+ / 0-)

        but go up from here.  Obama does make "mistakes" (I felt he won, but that's another diary), but I can't think of a time where he repeats them.  

    •  You play 60 or go home. (0+ / 0-)

      You can call it "class warfare" -- we call it "common sense"

      by kenlac on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:45:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ohio (6+ / 0-)

    That Ohio poll was exactly what I was waiting for. Last night I tried consoling my hysterical mother about the data of the race...of course she watches Hardball and the whole MSNBC lineup that cherry picks polls to show, usually without a disclaimer of who conducted the polls. I told her that i'd worry if a reputable pollster showed Obama down in Ohio.

    Well, sure enough Ohio is solid for Obama. Still, there is work to be done and we need to solidify this lead with GOTV and phone banking when possible. But, this is a solid reminder of the firewall and tremendous ability of OFA and the Obama team as a whole in the midwest.

  •  well i'm kind of glad the pre-debate (3+ / 0-)

    ...ABSURD talk of "this presidential election is over! obama will win" (even from kos) nonsense has ended.

    i took some comfort in it, of course, but clearly it was complete nonsense.

    i still think Obama will probably win, but moving forward let's drop the fake certainty. that's a big part of the reason the reaction to this change in dynamics was so incredibly powerful, depressing, hyperbolic and panicky here.

    "An inglorious peace is better than a dishonorable war." -Mark Twain

    by humanistique on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:10:15 PM PDT

  •  You know whats fun? (5+ / 0-)

    Accidentally listening to music while reading stories of Obama's "Demise", and sky is falling comments.

    Particularly listening to Hans Zimmer's Batman soundtrack (dunno why I liked it so much), this song in particular: http://www.youtube.com/...

    And then the Ohio poll from CNN comes out....and I see a fired up Obama campaigning like the opposite of the person who debated last week, dunno who that boring guy was....

    But it is clear, the "Dark Knight" will rise after taking a beating from......a Bain capital guy. Can't make this stuff up. :-P

    2008......The Dark Knight
    2012......The Dark Knight rises.

    Screw you polls, I am going to follow nerd superstition.

    Romney: Believe in (half of) America

    by kmoros on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:10:35 PM PDT

  •  State Polling, Obama Still Up (3+ / 0-)

    Obama trails in the national polls, and the PPP poll had Obama trailing even on only Saturday and Sunday surveys. However, state polling is what counts. Now Obama has to undo some of the damage in the next debates.

  •  Don't sugar coat this. Its bad. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    I have only seen momentum shift like this in one race in my entire life and it was Jimmy Carter collapsing against Reagan.  The dynamics here are very similar.  For anyone who saw the debate, the President looked defeated.  

    I get that Romney has no principles.  I get that he lied.  That does not matter.  The perception that the president gave up will be a lasting one.

    In a few short days, a very strong lead is entirely gone and when the state polls come back you would be wise to expect to see Romney bringing once solid Obama states into the contest.  Don't be surprised if Wisconsin and Michigan are in play by next week.

    This is what the Carter collapse looked like neighbors.  If you have a circle of friends you want to influence, do it soon.  Once this starts to look done, the last few who wait to see who will win jump aboard the late mover.

    Do not take this lightly.  The White House and Senate are at stake.

    •  Waaaaaahhhhhhh (0+ / 0-)

      It's the Carter collapse. I've only seen one shift like this in MY ENTIRE LIFE. Well then you must be about six years old. A lead is not entirely gone -- this right wing troll concern flood of so-called dkos posters is out of control.

      "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

      by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:24:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I really don't understand what we do.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      reginahny

      ....I hear people wanting us to be more negative than we are. More "realistic" if you will. But please tell me, how does that help? Isn't this a site about electing Democrats? I don't see what's wrong with optimism. There is absolutely nothing that we can do to help Obama's debate performance. That is on him. But why if my head is in an extremely dire place, I doubt I will be able to convince anyone to vote for Obama or any other Democrat. I am really not getting the point of these discussions. And yet I can't stay away from them. I guess I need help.

    •  yes and.. (0+ / 0-)

      several trackers show Obama recovering by the weekend .  Rasmussen's polls of VA,NC,and Fa on the 4th & 5th barely moved the needle ,Rassy's polls of Iowa & Colorado showed Obama in the lead for the first time all cycle. Then we have today's CNN poll of Ohio and New Hampshire's poll.
      I think PEW was an outlier both yesterday and back in September.

         Oh by the way Carter's collapse was within two weeks of election day.

  •  When D's are passive, a short history lesson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, ferg

    2000- The R's made Gore's "sighs" the story after a debate and that became the topic rather than Gore's win. But hey why respond, people will see thru that kind of stuff....

    2004. the swift boat ads. People are smarter than that, right.....

    2012- Not responding to Romney's debate lies.  People are going to know he's flip flopper..

    Lesson, look what's happened in the past and look at how the Colorado polls look today in response to the President's speech the day after the debate.  That is what people are looking for and respond to.

  •  Not really. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    acadia

    To be honest - nothing the President has done over the last 5 weeks has convinced me he has what it takes to turn this around. It's like he's caught in an episode of West Wing and thinks the power of a speech can turn things around. His debate prep was a joke. That said, I think Biden comes through on Thursday. Just hope the President gets off his high-horse. Romney is able to completely re-do his profile as a result of the President not calling him out during the debate. For millions of people their first impression of Romney was a lot better than Obama's.

    The presidential campaign has come down to Big Bird. Which is laughable. I know people on here don't want doom and gloom, but look yourself in the mirror, this is where we are at. The polls aren't wrong. The media isn't wrong to call out the President, either.  

    The Political Compass. -0.25, -2.46.

    by bosmarc on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:13:33 PM PDT

    •  Waaaaaahhhh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doroma, DuzT

      The President who has done the incredibly difficult work of governing -- and getting unprecedented liberal policies moving forward -- is caught in an episode of West Wing. What a freaking insult. You are laughable.

      "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

      by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:22:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cool. Cool, cool, cool. (0+ / 0-)

        I guess realism doesn't trump idealism at either flank of the political spectrum. No wonder more people than ever before identify as independents.

        The Political Compass. -0.25, -2.46.

        by bosmarc on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:29:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You don't know what I identify as (0+ / 0-)

          but what about a lying sack of shit "winning" a debate in the media is "realism" at either "flank"? You aren't discouraging me, nor are all the other deeply, deeply, deeply concerned "realists" who suddenly popped up at daily kos. So the independent flank has decided to vote for a pathological, plutocratic, mysoginistic, neocon liar as their identity? Got it.

          "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

          by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:34:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Pretty much. (0+ / 0-)

            Beats megalomania, self-aggrandizement, and arrogance, every day of the week. Somehow, critisizing ones own candidate became a cardinal sin in this country. And yes, you got me. I haven't featured regularly here since 08. But I volunteered for the President in 08. I am not as progressive as your general daily kos user - at least not on economic policy - but that used to be a good thing if one wanted an actual debate. Perhaps there is no space for people who aren't affiliated with either right-or left wing.

            The Political Compass. -0.25, -2.46.

            by bosmarc on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:48:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  whether you believe he can turn it around or not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Oh Mary Oh

      the question is do you support him?  do you want him re-elected?  Are you voting for him?  Are you trying to convince others to vote for him?  If the answer to all of those questions are yes, then fine, continue to be doom and gloom.

  •  Mr. President, please pay attention to this: (6+ / 0-)
    every time Obama shies away from standing firm he gets burned, and he got burned badly.
    People, Americans, voters -- not just Right Wingers and Republicans, but Democrats, too -- want the President to project strength.  

    Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

    by Catskill Julie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:13:59 PM PDT

    •  I think (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Catskill Julie, ferg, DuzT

      he got the message loud and clear.

      Not worried, but Debate #2 can't get here fast enough.

      The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

      Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

      by TheGreatLeapForward on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:16:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Waaaaahhhhhh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doroma, Christin

      The President, who has been in office for almost four years and passed not only health insurance reform but the most progressive polices in my lifetime needs to project strength.

      "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

      by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:20:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes. He does. n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

        by Catskill Julie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:21:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, didn't catch the irony there? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          doroma, Christin

          His POLICIES project strength, not whether he appears aggressive in a debate. He HAS projected strength every day that he has been in office, neither you or Romney can say the same.

          "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." -- Einstein

          by reginahny on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:29:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I "caught it" lame as it was. I disagree with your (0+ / 0-)

            glib dismissal of the need for every politician to demonstrate strength to casual voters, who are not as brilliant or engaged as you obviously are. And to remind them of his administration's successes, not his failings. Most of them do not know what the policies are. Did not understand that Romney had completely changed his positions.

            No need to reply. Really.

            Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

            by Catskill Julie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:38:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  she wants you to play the game (0+ / 0-)

            strength is standing straight and being a good actor.

            eye roll.

            thanks for your posts.

            We consume the carcasses of creatures of like appetites, passions and organs with our own, and fill the slaughterhouses daily with screams of pain and fear. Robert Louis Stevenson

            by Christin on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 02:20:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, it's not just the appearance of strength. It's (0+ / 0-)

              strength of character, a real core, fiber, backbone. Giving the understanding that one has beliefs that he is willing to stand up for and defend. PBO did not demonstrate that kind of strength to many supporters, let alone casual voters last week--especially on Social Security.

              your "eye roll" is offensive, as it is uninformed.

              Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

              by Catskill Julie on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:31:00 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I think we will be OK and I really do trust Obama (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jtb583, gigigirl, ferg, DuzT, Williston Barrett

    but your second paragraph is what continues to bother me Kos.  Is our President learning?  Clinton gets it . He said it. They HATE him. This isn't going to change. Channel FDR and STOP IT with trying to be nice to these assholes. Go AFTER them. Damn. The future of our contry depends upon it! Just do it with DETERMINATION and not anger. You can do it! We are starving for it!

    I am pro-life. Bring our troops home ALIVE!

    by Doc Allen on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:15:58 PM PDT

  •  I think Team Obama has let Friday's Job Numbers (0+ / 0-)

    fall too softly.  They should have been pounding down the jobs #s on every morning show and talk show from here to kingdom come....those jobs numbers are just the latest piece of evidence that Obama has managed to accomplish some very meaningful turnaround in a relatively short period of time, considering the mess he was handed.

  •  O/handlers: work on shorter sentences (0+ / 0-)

    i have no idea where O's ums and pauses come from. they aren't timed well.  seems like he's looking for the tp, especially so with the long and linear explicating he tries for. use some simple imagery

    after that, think about what his core is and breath some life into it.  it needs to be seen on the teevee, not my rule.  he needs to watch himself on video more, and in a critical audience.

    paul ryan created the deficit

    by rasfrome on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:19:48 PM PDT

  •  Obama acts as if he's a bipartisan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    political leader, when in fact he is a progressive at heart, who continually tries to live up to his "no blue, no red America" Democratic Convention speech... so sometimes he gets hopelessly muddled about what he believes in - e.g., agreeing with Mittens on Social Security during the debate....

    What he needs is a quick kick in his rear... to remind him where his heart truly lies - caring for the least among us,  the sick, the poor, the hungry and the needy, to bring about social justice, to provide opportunity for the marginalized and those discriminated against, to heal the earth and conserve our natural resources, to speak for those that are unable to do so in our country and around the world...

    In other words, for all the reasons which he gave in accepting his Nobel Prize for Peace in 2009:

    I receive this honor with deep gratitude and great humility. It is an award that speaks to our highest aspirations – that for all the cruelty and hardship of our world, we are not mere prisoners of fate. Our actions matter, and can bend history in the direction of justice.

    He needs to go back and try remembering what else he said in Oslo on December 10, 2009...

    . . . a just peace includes not only civil and political rights – it must encompass economic security and opportunity. For true peace is not just freedom from fear, but freedom from want.

    It is undoubtedly true that development rarely takes root without security; it is also true that security does not exist where human beings do not have access to enough food, or clean water, or the medicine and shelter they need to survive. It does not exist where children can't aspire to a decent education or a job that supports a family. The absence of hope can rot a society from within.

    And that's why helping farmers feed their own people – or nations educate their children and care for the sick – is not mere charity. It's also why the world must come together to confront climate change. There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades. For this reason, it is not merely scientists and environmental activists who call for swift and forceful action – it's military leaders in my own country and others who understand our common security hangs in the balance.

    "The blackbird whirled in the autumn winds. It was a small part of the pantomime." Wallace Stevens

    by mobiusein on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:20:28 PM PDT

  •  I keep remebering Brown Coaxley (0+ / 0-)

    and I hope this isn't a replay because I think Romney would be worse then Bush.  Romney is like Bush without a soul.

  •  The Real Media Bias (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newdem1960, Christin, Heftysmurf

    Horseraces are more interesting.  The media has nearly 30 days to fill with talk & words.  "Its over," won't cut it.

    So, yeah, Romney "performed"  better; Obama had an "off night."  So this is how we're going to decide the presidential election during the Great Recession, with deficits sky high, with an overstretched military, economic collapse looming the world over, violent extremists killing over a YouTube trailer -- or using that garbage as a cover for more killing?

    Come on.

    I guess I'm one of the dummies who thought Obama was  better than Romney last week.  But then, I think substance is more important than appearance (not that stage craft doesn't have a role, its just not the most important one).  

    Today Ryan is innoculating himself -- Biden's going to call us liars.  Well, Biden had  better call Romney/Ryan liars (misstaters, misrepresenters, whatever)  because (a) they are; (b) Obama didn't bother to last week; and (c) someone ought to tell the public the truth.  

  •  Ohio is 53/43 among RV (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doroma, Supavash, bridav58

    It's 49/41 when the 3rd parties are included.

    Women go for Obama 60/38 and Obama wins the 50+ age group 49/48

    Notice CNN leads with "race tightens" when Obama went from +6 to +4.

  •  Get Real People! (0+ / 0-)

    People who decide to not vote for Obama (I hope no one who is a fan of this blog actually would vote for Romney) because they think he isn't a tough enough debater had better remember that it's the people of this country and the world who will pay if Romney wins because of their snit fits.

  •  Rasmussen (0+ / 0-)

    It is rather amusing that you refer to Rasmussen as the GOP's hack pollster when FiveThirtyEight lists PPP has having a partisan lean nearly three times that of Rasmussen. (+3.1D vs +1.3R)

    •  Ok but when (0+ / 0-)

      When did the R's ever  exceed D's in a presidential election year? The closest they came was 2004 where they were equal,in fact PPP's lean is probably more likely on 11/6. Furthermore PPP was right on the money in both 2008 & 2010.

  •  O looked (0+ / 0-)

    Unrealistically good before the debate
    Unrealistically bad after the debate.

    Things are going to be bumpy from now until Nov. 7.

  •  Suggested Debate Technique (3+ / 0-)

    In my opinion, President Obama did not use his time effectively in the debate.  I don’t think it was because he didn’t prepare, however I do think he and his advisors weren’t anticipating the style Governor Romney would adopt during the first debate.  Some people called it the “Galloping Gish” technique.  Whatever it was called, President Obama’s face during the first few minutes reflected total overwhelm, and although he tried mightily, he never regained his footing.

    I think one of the biggest mistakes Team Obama made was forgetting what a political debate is. It might be formatted to look like a reasonable discourse of ideas and policies; it is not.  It is a bare knuckles, knock-down, no holds barred fist fight.  I would like to submit the following suggestion for the next two presidential debates and the vice presidential debate.

    The biggest problem is countering Governor Romney’s (and Congressman Ryan’s) unfounded accusations and other lies.  Unfortunately, President Obama has been placed in a very difficult box.  If he ignores the lies, they stand.  The fact that the lies are identified by the fact checkers later, and responded to by Team Obama following the debate is far weaker than an effective and immediate response.  If he corrects and argues against the lies, he never moves from fighting defense (protecting himself) to a place where he can throw an effective punch or two.  

    I was once told that when an opponent places you in a box, your best defense was to place them in a smaller box.  To accomplish that I suggest the following technique.  At this point, Team Romney’s challenge with stating the truth has become part of the narrative.  While Romney (or Ryan) are speaking, President Obama (or Vice President Biden) should hold their hand in a way that can be seen, but not be in your face obvious, and tick off each lie as it is told.  When it is their turn to respond, acknowledge the inaccuracies, but then move on to the points they wish to make.

    For example, if the question were Medicare  -- Romney would probably use the $716 billion figure, and accuse Obama of being the one to weaken Medicare.  
    President Obama (having ticked off two fingers) could say something similar to this:

    “Well, I counted at least two misrepresentations in that speech.  However, I’m going to let the fact checkers discuss the specifics.  What is important is I have transferred $716 billion from Medicare to Obamacare.  The result of that one action is to extend the life of the Medicare program from 2016 to 2022.  In addition, by using Obamacare to reinforce and strengthen Medicare, the donut hole for prescriptions has been closed and seniors are receiving basic health checkups for free.  But that is not the only ways Medicare has been strengthened by Obamacare.  In the past week over 90 people were arrested on charges they stole approximately $430 million from Medicare.  And it wasn’t the 47% who are accused of committing fraud, nor is it seniors.  Greedy well-to-do hospital administrators, doctors, and other health professionals have been caught defrauding Medicare.”

    It’s my opinion that if this technique is consistently used throughout the debate, the audience (assuming the finger ticking is shown by the television cameras) will begin to watch the President’s fingers and divide their attention between listening to Governor Romney and watching President Obama.  Once they begin to do that, the audience will begin to identify the problematic phrases themselves as they are “visually clued” by the President’s ticking fingers.  

  •  Adjustments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    John R

    I don't think there is a basketball player alive who doesn't mention the need to make "adjustments" after poor play in the opening period.  This is was Obama is.  He will make the adjustments.  I hope he doesn't overcorrect, but I don't think he will.  He's still "No Drama, Obama."  It used to drive me nuts in 2008, but in the end, he has to be himself.

    Candidates are people too, my friend.

    Except for the robots, of course.

  •  on Chris Matthews last night (0+ / 0-)

    Fineman said that Obama met last with his inner circle before the debate.  word is that his performance wasn't at all how he was prepped for the debate.

    I'm a blue drop in a red bucket.

    by blue drop on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:35:03 PM PDT

  •  Enough with the "angry black man" BS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    Let go of that security blanket (excuse!), it will do you some good.

    I didn't abandon the fight, I abandoned the Party that abandoned the fight...

    by Jazzenterprises on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:35:48 PM PDT

  •  patience.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...that's the problem. Even though my mind tells me that it won't be until Thursday, Friday & Saturday results start falling off of some of these polls that we'll be able to get a clear picture of exactly how much benefit Romney got and how much damage was done to President Obama's reelection efforts. Unfortunately...this kossack has little patience and still anxious awaits any little thing that might tell me that it was either a small bounce, a temporary one or, hopefully, both.

  •  romney lie payback up to us (0+ / 0-)

    Well, I was a hillary supporter in the primaries because I thought she would fight the Republicans better. Obama's long game has impressed me, so I'm not convinced he's blown anything - yet.
    It's up to us to be measured at the polls.
    Romney, Mr. Etch-a-Sketch, has played everyone for something. He uttered so many falsehoods, Obama was shellshocked, nonplussed, and reminded me of an empty chair. Maybe not lies, but Romney  just changed everything he's been campaigning on for the last 1.5 years, opposing his VPs policies and Party Platform. Multiple Choice Mitt. Who ya' gonna' vote for? Who Ya' gonna' get?

    ObamaCare won't allow insurance discrimination for pre-existing conditions. When Obama stated that Romney's plan condemned millions to a multifaceted misery of low medical care and potential financial disaster. Mitt responds “no”; his plan addresses this. Watch his words (I say “federal income tax” he says “tax”). Mitt's plan only allows pre-existing coverage on uninterrupted , or continued coverage. Anyone without coverage in their future could find themselves effectively – meaning financially - cut off from coverage forever. Lie by deception.

    So how will Romney's coupons (vouchers) work for Medicare? His plan has lowball bids determine value, then elders take their crappy coupon out shopping for insurance. The coupon goes up 2% a year while costs go up around 10%. Falling behind by plan, an endearing touch.

    Will Romney remove the mortgage interest tax deduction? Mitt talks circles, but his arithmetic says yes.

  •  Would have been a landslide but for... (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry, haven't read all the posts, so this may be redundant. Like the idea of Alec Baldwin standing in for the snake oil salesman. Ha! If Obama wins this, I will take solace in the fact that, if not for racism and the historically crappy economy Obama was given, he would have won by a landslide. That says a lot about where the majority of the country is on a lot of issues that matter to progressives. Give us a better economy and the racists won't matter. Without the distraction of a poor economy, most of the country will move forward with us and we can leave the Tea Baggers and racists to their dwindling numbers. Really, the tide is in our favor, regardless of how this election turns out. Though I think Obama pull it out.

  •  I'm Just Gonna Say It (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry if someone has already gone there, but the farther I get away from the debate, the more I think about what a horrible, terrible act Obama must constantly put on.

    He has to run away from anything (ANYTHING) that is racialized; he can be the president who happens to be black, not the black president.  That means that there was no way he could "go after" Romney in that first debate and give Newt & Co the opportunity to call him "thuggish" or a "gangbanger" or whatever dogwhistles are operative in the 21st Century.  

    In this weird way, by being so PASSIVE that image can't be effectively used against him, but simultaneously, in the next debate he CAN get aggressive because he wasn't before.  

    This may be naive, but I just think we really tend to underestimate the virulence of the racism and the virulence of people's INDIVIDUAL racism even before its been collectivized and harnessed by the GOP.  

    •  Correct. (0+ / 0-)

        This is why 'rope a dope' and long ball are used.
      It is always better to, in the words echoed by Martin King at Montgomery, "Let all flesh see it together."
           And, it really is not a handicap. It is a long held governing strength, that Mr. Obama has that has lent,
      to the Presidency. - to add modern useful depth, dimension
       and value,
       Its no wonder he won the Nobel Peace Prize.
      The man has Eyes.

  •  could not have said it better, Markos... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    "People want to vote for Obama, they want him to succeed, which is more than can be said about Romney. But he can't let them down again. Another bad debate performance, and the fundamentals may not hold."

    while I think the media COULD NOT WAIT to pummel Obama for a listless performance, he deserved much of it.

    Obama is NOT a face to face fighter by nature. He prefers the thoughtful back and forth of the seminar or the soaring rush of the adoring crowd.  Not a particularly seamless and effortless off the cuff speaker, he tends to wilt and stutter in the face of open hostility when he can't work a crowd in his favor.

    I agree that all it will take is a couple of credible Obama debates and a good November jobs number to seal the deal, but I also could not agree more with you when you say

    "Every time you think he has learned that Republicans want to utterly destroy him, he comes back with his rhetorical embrace of the enemy, telling everyone that we should all come together because we're not really all that different! You see, Republicans want to destroy Social Security, and Democrats want to ... destroy it a little less? God, I hope not. But that's the Obama people got last week.

    And as we've seen time and time again, every time Obama shies away from standing firm he gets burned, and he got burned badly."

    His essential nature is to seek reasoned compromise, and that works really well in a situation where he is seen as the honest broker between two foes.  He has only fleetingly clued in that, to the GOP and nutjob right, Barack Obama is no neutral mediator, but PUBLIC ENEMY #1!!!

    Wake up, Barack. You are the best president of my lifetime, but you did a piss poor job in the first debate, from energy to rambling answers to giving the utterly falsehood spewing Romney a pass again and again.

    Repeat performance and you are the underdog...

  •  Interesting choice of title. (0+ / 0-)

    And this is true, but left out a part:

    People want to vote for Obama, they want him to succeed
    Some people want him to fight. For us. Unfortunately, he seems to have a serious aversion to that.

    How many divisions does OWS have?

    by Diebold Hacker on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 01:55:16 PM PDT

  •  Once again Obama got my hopes up... (0+ / 0-)

    Only to dash them on the rocks again.  I honestly thought we had seen the end of PussyBama, but he's back again.  Admittedly the blitzkrieg of lies from Romney was startling, but I thought Obama had actually grown a backbone.  He's going to 'conciliate' us into exactly what the Repugnants want.  And if, hopefully, he does win, he's going to go right back to hiding in the White House, expecting people to be intelligent enough to understand what's really happening, and trying to reason with those that are unreasonable, to put it mildly.

  •  A telling quote about fundamentals from R (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Vicky

    Don't know if anyone else has covered this, but this is an interesting self-assessment from Romney's campaign in Politco's puff piece about the turnaround:

    Campaign officials said any change will be confined by Romney’s own cautious nature. And they are candid that their electoral map still looks terrible: Romney is behind in nearly every vital state. Ohio still looks very tough to win and New Hampshire, once a possibility, looks very bleak, officials say.
    http://www.politico.com/...
  •  God I hope Obama gives up on a group hug (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DuzT

    with the Republicans in a second term.

    Every time you think he has learned that Republicans want to utterly destroy him, he comes back with his rhetorical embrace of the enemy, telling everyone that we should all come together because we're not really all that different! You see, Republicans want to destroy Social Security, and Democrats want to ... destroy it a little less? God, I hope not
    Unfortunately, his learning curve seems so steep on this that I'm skeptical he'll ever learn.  And when you let the bullies beat you up for a third or fourth time, you seem like (and are) a weak leader. That's how the debate was lost.

    But God I hope Obama has a second term. I'll take a compulsively compromising technocrat over a pathological liar with a lose grasp on reality any day.

  •  The Pew poll is an outlier, and a big one. (0+ / 0-)

    I've spent quite a bit of time looking at the demographics of the Pew poll and this poll can't be taken seriously. Here's a few examples comparing the 2008 exit poll to the Pew poll:
    1) 9% were Hispanics; It's likely to be 10-12% this time. Yet, the Pew poll shows only 5% Hispanic and NONE of them had an opinion.
    2) 18% were 18-29; While it's likely to be a bit lower this time, the Pew poll has only 7.5%.
    3) 16% were 65+; The Pew poll has this age group at 32%!

    It's worth remembering that the Pew poll in October, 2008 had President Obama with a 14% lead, when the other polls were in the 5-8 point range. I don't know what happened to Pew this time, but it does make me wonder about these other polls that have Romney with a lead, although I'm not about to start "unskewing" them.  

  •  are undecided voters that fickle? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jriches

    i'll never understand how polls can shift one way because of one event and then shift back another way a week later.

  •  Kos hit the nail on the head (0+ / 0-)

    when he wrote, "(Republicans would) embrace Bernie Sanders if the Vermont socialist went on stage and punched Obama."  An example of this occurred during WWII when it was common that cafe's fed German POWs who were on work detail while turning away African American soldiers even in uniform because of America's visceral hatred of blacks.  

  •  Fundamentals? (0+ / 0-)

    The fundamentals were in our favor during the entire Bush administration. So?

  •  Before PBO's next two debates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jriches, DuzT

    I would like to have his Preparers and Handlers disappear 15 minutes before the debate and have the "Fired Up! Ready to GO!" lady giving him a little pep talk. It's not about the handlers - it's about regular people like us. That's what's at stake.

  •  Like I've been saying for a while (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure if Obama is the leader we deserve but don't need right now or the leader we need but don't deserve. This epic overreaction to one debate performance has me leaning to the latter.

  •  what happens after 3 debates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett

    My concern is what happens if Obama doesn't learn from this last debate.

    All I can say is this -- if Obama does the "we all want the same thing for the country" shtick again, he'll have deliberately thrown away this election.  There are huge differences between how Obama has governed so far, and what Romney would likely do -- especially assuming he reverts to his "severely conservative" persona after the election.

    What's really a shame is that Obama has already missed some significant opportunities to explain the differences between the Republican plans and the Democratic plans.  That's why Bill Clinton's speech was so amazing -- he explained in clear and unpatronizing terms what Obama and the rest of the Democrats accomplished.

    Obama should have long ago made one or two addresses explaining why Obamacare is a good plan that'll improve job growth.  Instead, he let the R's define it as a "job killing" program, which is ludicrous to anyone who knows anything about how health care is paid for today.

    He should have defended the first stimulus, and argued strongly for a second.  There's no reason that we should be laying teachers, fire fighters and police off just because tax revenues are down due to a recession.  Especially when the Fed can borrow at < 2% for 10 years!

    The debates are really his last opportunity to pull a Bill Clinton and make clear how good his policies have been.  He's already blown his first opportunity.   I wish I believed he won't blow the next two in his futile quest for bipartisanship.

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