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Some good news from Public Polling Policy today. They have released their latest Montana poll that shows President Obama down but Democratic incumbent Senator, Jon Tester, with a two point lead over Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama's standing has deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester's has remained unchanged. Last month we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates. Tester leads thanks to a 45-36 lead with independents and because he's taking 88% of the Democratic vote while only 78% of Republicans stand behind Rehberg.
Cox's strength in this race is something worth keeping an eye on. He's getting 8% of the Republican vote, but only winning 1% of Democrats. His supporters prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama 70-6. Tester really needs Cox to hold onto his voters because if he doesn't they're a whole lot more likely to end up in the Rehberg camp than with Tester. Also worth keeping an eye on are the undecideds- it's a small subgroup but they prefer Romney over Obama 71-8. Rehberg has a lot more room to grow in the final four weeks of the campaign than Tester does- but he hasn't shown an ability to close the deal with those GOP leaning voters yet.
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PPP also highlights how the excessive negative attacks are influencing this election:
Montanans aren't thrilled with the job Tester is doing. 42% approve while 50% disapprove. The reason he has a slight advantage at this point is that they like Rehberg even less. He has only a 41% approval rating with 52% of voters disapproving of him. This has become the reality in a lot of hotly contested Senate races this year- with the high volume of negative ads voters have in many cases ended up disgusted with both candidates.
This is a great sign to see Tester maintaining his lead and that Rehberg is still struggling. This race has gotten ugly but I'm happy to see that Tester is still weathering the storm. If we want to keep the Senate blue, you know what to do. Donate to Tester's campaign:
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https://secure.actblue.com/...