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We have several new swing state polls in today and they seem to be pointing towards some settling after what has been a week of extremely volatile polling.

Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.

Originally published at No We Can't Politics.

I'll be tweeting my VP debate thoughts live on tomorrow during the debate, so be sure to follow me on Twitter.

* FLORIDA: Obama 49%, Romney 45% -- No previous poll (Univ. of North Florida)
* OHIO: Obama 45%, Romney 44% -- No previous poll (SurveyUSA)
* NEVADA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% -- Romney +5% since 3 weeks ago (Public Policy)
* NEVADA: Obama 47%, Romney 47% -- Romney +2% since 3 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 48%, Romney 48% -- Obama +3% since 3 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 51%, Romney 49% -- Romney +1% since 3 weeks ago (Rasmussen)

These numbers are more or less in line with the "new normal" I wrote about yesterday -- a national race that is within the margin of error and swing states that have tightened by 2-3% compared to two weeks ago, but now seem to be stabilizing a bit.  The national numbers would further lend credence to this: Obama gained 2% in today's Gallup tracking poll which has the race tied, the Rasmussen tracking poll has Romney up 1%, the Reuters tracking poll has the race tied, and FOX News has a new national poll showing Romney up 1%. As Paul Begala said on CNN today, there has been significant erosion in Obama's support since last week, and his campaign will now need to adjust and plan for a very close 2004-type election as oppose to the 2008-style electoral landslide they were in position for prior to last week's debate.

The Florida poll stands out of the pack as having a very good number for Obama at a time when he hasn't had many, but it's worth noting that the poll covered an unusually large period of time, 10/1 to 10/9, meaning it contains some data from before the debate. Other than that though, we're seeing what we've mostly been seeing. Ohio has gotten closer, Nevada has gotten closer, and Wisconsin has gotten closer. I certainly don't think New Hampshire is a tied race, as Rasmussen indicates, as that poll is actually an improvement for Obama as the previous Rasmussen New Hampshire poll from three weeks ago had Romney up by 3%. Nobody else is showing Romney running that strong in New Hampshire.

Wisconsin remains a major key, but if Obama has a 2% lead there in a Rasmussen poll, he is probably in good shape, particularly since this polling shows virtually no undecideds in the state and comes at Obama's lowest point in the campaign so far. Wisconsin may be just out of reach for Romney if he can't take a lead there following the week he has had. Rasmussen's Wisconsin poll is also more or less the same as what they were showing before the debate -- they had Obama up by just 3% prior to the debate at a time when everyone else had Obama running away with the state. In other words, those two Rasmussen polls are actually somewhat positive signs for Obama as they are not showing a major shift to Romney.

* It should be noted though that Rasmussen weights their party ID, causing less fluctuation. Part of why other pollsters are showing such large shifts to Romney is because they have also found an increase in people identifying as Republicans, which tends to happen following a big event that goes well for one party over the other. Therefore, Rasmussen may be missing an increase in the percentage of Republicans that could stick, or they may be missing an artificial bounce in the percentage of Republicans that will eventually fade. We won't know until election day which method is proven right.

With the VP debate on Thursday, a lot will be riding on what Joe Biden and Paul Ryan do, particularly the media which will use the debate results to alter the media narrative. If Biden "wins," we could begin to see the "Obama's back" narrative, while if Ryan "wins," it should help Romney maintain the "Romney's on a roll" narrative.

This election looks like it will come down to a few key states -- Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Virginia. In a climate where the national vote is within 3%, Obama may have a difficult time winning states like Florida and North Carolina. His easiest path to 270 probably remains Ohio-Iowa-New Hampshire-Wisconsin, Ohio-Iowa-Nevada-Wisconsin, or Ohio-Iowa-Nevada-New Hampshire. Those three combinations all get Obama to 270 without needing Florida, Virginia, Colorado, or North Carolina.

Originally published at No We Can't Politics.

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Comment Preferences

  •  PPP in NC (5+ / 0-)

    can't wait for their poll there this weekend.  They poll the state better than anybody, and have shown remarkably a stable race since the campaign began.  It'll be interesting to see if Romney's pulled ahead or not.

  •  Nice synopsis. We forget that the electoral (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, Lujane

    college strongly favors Obama, with all the "poll" talk going on.

    Expose the lies. Fight for the truth. Push progressive politics. Save our planet. Health care is a right, not a privilege.

    by lighttheway on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:21:24 PM PDT

  •  Most national polls are showing Romney with (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Aviate, Fury, savvyspy

    Anywhere from a one to three point lead. If the race remains close going into next week, Obama will win. Romney's support is soft. It's a lead that won't hold.

  •  That Florida poll is, unfortunately, bunk. (0+ / 0-)

    If you look at the sample, it is D +6.  The 2008 election saw a D +3 electorate in Florida.  I don't know of anyone who is predicting an electorate as Democratic as 2008, much less more Democratic.  

  •  It does sort of look like.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, Voodoo king

    The new "normal" is coming to fruition with a tied or very minor lead for one of the candidates (likely Obama, but that actually is far from clear to me right now).

    In the swing states the news has been very slightly better, but honestly not all that much. What used to be a slam dunk election is now probably closer to a toss up.. maybe 55-60% in favor of Obama just based on what I'm seeing in swing state polls and my gut feeling that the debate beating will subside in the coming weeks (as it did for Bush in 2004... amazing how many similarities there are to that election).

    Obama probably didn't lose the election last week, but he probably did lose the opportunity to "Run up the score" as Markos has been talking up for over a month. It's still possible, of course, but time is now short and people are already voting. If Obama had nailed the debate we'd be talking about how many Senate seats we could possibly ADD and maybe even how much our chances for taking over the house had improved. Now my guess is that we're going to be trying to just barely eke out the presidency and maybe hold on to the Senate.

    •  I've made the parallel to 2004 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, ekgrulez1

      for the last year or so.  A lot of my friends ignored me, but it's shaping up almost exactly like it thus far.

      •  Yeah, I've made same observation... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash

        Running almost identically... No convention bounce for the challenger, fairly big convention bounce for the incumbent, then first debate the incumbent blows it big time and it throws the race back into a toss-up, but the incumbent very slowly regains a very small lead. Not where I was hoping to be, but I guess that's what we sort of have to go for now (unless we get lucky and Obama destroys Romney in next debate, but my guess is that best we're hoping for now is that he can play to draws, more or less, now).

        •  The difference is that Bush never yielded (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          savvyspy

          his national lead to Kerry. Obama has given up his national lead as almost every post-debate poll has either Romney leading or tied.

          •  Romney's bounce is stronger than Kerry's (0+ / 0-)

            Bush's rabid supporters were more fervent than Obama's; Bush was an idiot but looked alive for his debates; Bush expanded his electoral map. I will be surprised to see Obama win; he would be winning with less of an electoral victory ( unusual )than 2008; I maintain the election will be either a very marginal Obama win, or a win for Romney that is really not as close as some here think it will be. It pisses me off to no end. It's outrageous; but I am a pessimist and I am usually right. hope I am totally off this time, but despite a lot of folks here seeing the bounce eroding, I do not see evidence of that. Period.

            •  Not for his first debate... (0+ / 0-)

              In fact, from what I remember, it was really pretty similar. Bush just seemed really annoyed that he had to be there, kept saying the same thing over and over again ("it's hard work") and generally just didn't seem very confident. He then perked up for his 2nd and 3rd debates which were more or less ties, which is all he really needed at that point.

              I'm not sure if Kerry was "never leading" after the first debate.. I think he probably was actually very slightly (I somewhat remember checking all of the polls very religiously), though polling composites and trend lines that you can look up now have sort of "smoothed" things out I think (the only one I could find right off the bat was RCP, which I don't think even includes a lot of polls). In any case, even if it's true that Kerry was "never leading", Bush was actually ahead by MORE than Obama was at the time of the first debate... Obama looks like he had somewhere in the range of a 3-5 point lead on the day of the debate, whereas Bush's was at least 6 points. So the bounces were probably of somewhat similar size.

          •  National lead matters less now (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Larsstephens

            Kerry and Bush were competing in a lot more swing states. Right now were only worrying about 8 or maybe 9 states. Also, Obama's approval rating right now is as Strong as Bush's, if not better actually. You're concern trolling is getting annoying honestly. I get it, Romney had a good debate and got a bounce. But that by no means we should just pack it in. We still got  the swing state leads and we can still win it.

  •  Ras state polls (0+ / 0-)

    I do not believe that Ras pre-sets the party ID levels for his state polls-only the national. So these numbers are probably what he got.

  •  In general I'm optimistic (0+ / 0-)

    But numerous national polls all show a tie or small Romney lead. Some are entirely post last thur and Friday. This is really concerning. It seems romney got a bigger bounce out of that debate than Obama did out of the 47 percent video or the dnc. The campaign has basically played prevent defense for a month an it might cost them. The silver lining is that Ohio and neveda are very good for the president what worries me is turnout. You can't have the other side more enthusiastic and dem support seems low. Obama needs to outperform romney at next debate or we are going to be electing someone as bad as bush who will destroy this country.

    •  Maybe Democrats Will Start Waking Up And (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy

      realize that if they don't wake up and start paying attention Romney will win.  I am not seeing more surrogates for President Obama out there more.  President Clinton is doing a great job for President Obama, but what is missing is more surrogates out in Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia.  And where is the personal ad of President Obama speaking to the camera about how the economy is getting better and the defic is going down and unemployment is down to 7.8 percent?

      "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

      by rssrai on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:29:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Worse than BUsh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LakeSuperior

      Romney is way smarter.

  •  Only +1 in Ohio? Jesus (0+ / 0-)

    Um, that is not a good number at all.

  •  big dog (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnnieWest, Supavash, peptabysmal

    put clinton in ohio, virginia and florida for the next 20 days. let him bring it home...

  •  According to the National Journal (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Obama's new internals show leads within the MOE in FL, CO, VA, and slightly above it in OH.

    A good read:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

  •  Nate Silver's odds for Obama dropped by 18% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Vinasai

    Not to sound like a concern troll, but this is the worst polling drop I've seen following a debate. 538 went from 80-something percent to less than 68% of Obama being re-elected, and a lot of these polls were in the field days after the debate. I realize on the one hand, given the shellacking, maybe Romney's reached his high point, but after seeing Silver's percentage drop today by several points, it's very disheartening.

    I won't put my head in the oven yet, but my fury at that debate performance has returned. Yeah, I know Mitt lied, and I know the left-wing media aggravated the Mitt won meme, but now when I hear an Obama ad, I yell at the screen, "Yeah, it would have been so easy for you to say that last week when 80 million people were tuned it." Ugh!!!

  •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

     I'm going to say it again...In 2004 Kerry beat up Bush but Bush's supporters backed him  to the hilt but here just as soon as things took a turn for the worst  it was all Obama's fault so we'll run him out on a rail.

    •  We do have an unfortunate habit (0+ / 0-)

      of being fair-weather friends.  The GOP has discipline when things look bad for them; we do not.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:18:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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