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Looking only at presidential polling conducted entirely after October 3, here is a quick chart showing the ten swing states that remain within 5.0% or less:

swing state poll chart

Two notes on this chart:

  • With the exception of the latest Nevada poll from PPP, all of the polls used in these averages are taken from HuffPost Pollster.
  • A total of 25 polls are used in these averages. Ten of those polls, including one in each state, are from Rasmussen Reports. Nate Silver famously characterized Rasmussen's 2010 record as "biased and inaccurate" because the firm's surveys skewed heavily toward Republican candidates.

So, even looking only at polls conducted entirely since the last debate, and even though those polls are dominated by a robo-pollster with a history of producing surveys that are inaccurately biased toward Republicans, President Obama still leads the electoral college 286-248, with one state (New Hampshire) exactly tied.

We are still winning. Yes, it's a hell of a lot closer. Yes, victory is far from assured. But doesn't it also kind of make you think we took their best shot, and we're still standing?

No matter where you live, you can help turn out voters in swing states. Please, click here to sign up to get swing state Democrats to the polls with our partners at Workers' Voice, a new political action committee from our friends in the labor movement.

7:26 PM PT: Obama leads by 8 in a new Pennsylvania poll. That pushes his average margin in the state to 5.0%. Pennsylvania's stay in swing state territory might be very short lived.

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