This is my first post in the elections section. I hope I can add just a little bit of insight to an already excellent site.
My one takeaway from the early morning swing state polls (NBC, CBS, Pulse Opinion Research) is that Ohio is a pretty strong firewall for Obama. His lead in the RCP average is 1.3, though other models like Pollster and 538 have his margin there slightly larger. He is also way ahead in early voting, which means that Romney has less room to make up ground.
If Obama wins all of the Kerry 2004 states (he's ahead in all of them, even Wisconsin post-debate), plus New Mexico (where he's way ahead, even in the House of Ras) and Ohio, he will be in an electoral 269-269 tie. I'm confident he could win just one of the following states: NV, CO, IA, VA, FL. NC I think he'd only win if he was winning by larger amounts elsewhere.
I've also been, just for fun, making educated guesses on all Presidential States, Senate and House races each day. My formula is basically to look at poll averages, and where there is a very small margin, factor in outside factors, such as national trends, state fundamentals etc. I'm no Nate Silver, but I feel like I might as well go on record to test my chops.
Today's Projections:
Electoral College: Obama 281-257. I'm giving Romney tenuous leads in FL, VA and CO based on the national mood. That could change.
Senate: Democrats 53-47.
House: Republicans 233-202.
Update: Forgot to include IA in list of states Obama could win to clinch electoral victory. An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated the margin of Obama's lead in the Pulse Opinion Research poll as 7. That was an outdated poll, and his lead in that poll is now currently just 1. The RCP average is now 1.3.