The polls out today look strong. More on that in a minute. First, a recap of the rapid post-debate slide in Nate Silver's 538 forecast:
Oct 4: 87%
Oct 5: 85%
Oct 6: 80%
Oct 7: 78%
Oct 8: 75%
Oct 9: 71%
Oct 10: 68%
Oct 11: ??
This evening Nate will update the numbers. President Obama's chances will begin a slow climb back. Why?
1. OHIO. In the 538 adjusted poll average, Obama is only +1.8%. But today's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll is Obama +6. A well-regarded poll, this will improve Obama's winning chances in the number one 538 tipping point state. He's currently at 68% chances of winning Ohio. That number should exceed 70 tonight.
2. VIRGINIA. The same pollster has Obama -1 in VA but CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama +5. Average the two big-name polls and you get Obama +2, a likely improvement on the 538 polling adjusted average which is almost exactly tied at this point.
3. The Rasmussen tracking poll goes from Obama -1 yesterday to +1 today, a two-point improvement in the 3-day rolling average. That means the Wednesday numbers were about 6 points better than the Sunday numbers. The tracking polls are part of the 538 forecast model.
4. After several down days the stock market (so far) is bouncing up today, an economic factor in the 538 model.
5. Good jobs numbers. I believe, though not certain, these are part of Nate's model.
By the way, here's a bit from Nate's latest post on the question of whether Romney is winning (because of some strong national polls):
All of this is a very long-winded way of answering the question in the headline: is Mr. Romney ahead right now? None of the systems that rely on state-level polling say that he’s ahead in the Electoral College right now, although the FiveThirtyEight models perceive a slightly smaller Electoral College gap between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama than some of the other systems.The Gallup tracker will be out soon. Regardless, I see an uptick coming in the 538 model later today.
The difference is that we, and HuffPost Pollster, are looking at the Electoral College and the popular vote in a holistic way. The evidence is ambiguous enough that it’s hard to know for sure, but the fact that Mr. Obama appears to hold a lead in the Electoral College is reason to be suspicious that Mr. Romney leads in the popular vote.