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Leading Off:

• A ton of Senate polling came out late Wednesday and throughout the day on Thursday. Marist and Quinnipiac led the way to declare that the sky hasn't quite fallen—but if you prefer to hedge, you can add the words "not yet" and "not entirely" to the end of that sentence:

CA-Sen (SurveyUSA): Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 54 (55), Elizabeth Emken (R): 35 (37); Obama 53-39 (57-35)

FL-Sen (Marist): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 52 (52), Connie Mack (R): 39 (41); Obama 48-47 (47-46)

MA-Sen (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D): 50 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 44 (46); Obama 55-41 (57-39)

MA-Sen (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D): 49 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 47 (48)

MI-Sen (Glengariff): Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 50 (50), Pete Hoekstra (R): 38 (34); Obama 49-42 (52-38)

MT-Sen (MSU Billings): Jon Tester (D-inc): 40, Denny Rehberg (R): 43; Romney 49-35

NM-Sen (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D): 52 (52), Heather Wilson (R): 39 (39); Obama 54-43 (51-40)

NV-Sen (PPP): Shelley Berkley (D): 44 (48), Dean Heller (R-inc): 47 (44); Obama 51-47 (52-43)

NV-Sen (Suffolk): Shelley Berkley (D): 37, Dean Heller (R-inc): 40; Obama 47-45

OH-Sen (Marist): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 52 (50), Josh Mandel (R): 41 (41); Obama 51-45 (51-43)

PA-Sen (Pulse Opinion for LFR): Bob Casey (D-inc): 44, Tom Smith (R): 41; Obama 47-45

PA-Sen (McLaughlin for Smith): Bob Casey (D-inc): 46 (49), Tom Smith (R): 44 (41)

PA-Sen (Rasmussen): Bob Casey (D-inc): 49 (49), Bob Smith (R): 45 (42); Obama 51-46 (51-39)

VA-Sen (Marist): Tim Kaine (D): 47 (49), George Allen: 46 (44); Romney 48-47 (Obama 48-46)

VA-Sen (Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D): 51 (51), George Allen: 44 (44); Obama 51-46 (50-46)

VA-Sen (McLaughlin for Allen): Tim Kaine (D): 46, George Allen (R): 49; Romney 51-44

VA-Sen (We Ask America): Tim Kaine (D): 41, George Allen (R): 46

WI-Sen (Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D): 48 (47), Tommy Thompson (R): 46 (47); Obama 50-47 (51-45)

I should add that Quinnipiac also has Colorado data: Romney's now up 48-47, flipped from a 48-47 Obama lead last month. For analysis of all these numbers, check out my colleague Steve Singiser's nightly Polling Wrap.


AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake, who never expected to have a tossup on his hands, is turning into a desperate liar. First, the lying:

MODERATOR: Did you sign the Grover Norquist no-tax pledge?


MODERATOR: Would you sign such a pledge?



FLAKE: The only pledge I'd sign is a pledge to sign no more pledges. We've got to ensure that we go back and represent our constituents in a way—I believe in limited government, economic freedom, individual responsibility. I don't want higher taxes. But no more pledges.

As Jules would say, "Yes you did. Yes. You. Did, Jeff!" HuffPo:
Flake is listed as one of the 279 signers of the pledge against new taxes on the website of Americans for Tax Reform. The pledge is a promise to voters to "ONE, oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rate for individuals and business; and TWO, oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates."
As for the desperation, get a load of this new ad of his. A former HHS official, Cristina Beato whom Democrat Rich Carmona worked under while serving as surgeon general has cut a spot for Flake claiming Carmona "has issues with anger, with ethics, and with women." Beato previously testified about these allegations before Congress in 2007—but remember that this was during the same timeframe that Carmona went public with his accusations that the Bush administration had "had improperly interfered in public health decisions for purely political reasons." And Beato was a Bush hack who, thanks to Democratic opposition, never received Senate confirmation and was instead appointed in an "acting" capacity, partly because of allegations that she lied about her  résumé. Carmona, of course, denied the allegations when Beato's testimony first came to light earlier this year, and denies them again now.

FL-Sen, MO-Sen: The DSCC's making a few new ad buys, and most notable among them are in Florida, where they're throwing down against Connie Mack for the first time ($618K), and Missouri, where they're back on the air against Todd Akin ($748K). More details on the other buys (in a wide array of competitive races) at the link.

IN-Sen: Hahahah!

ND-Sen: Shira Toeplitz has an interesting piece on North Dakota's so-called "man camps," temporary trailer camps which house untold thousands of mostly male workers who toil in the booming oil fields in the western part of the state. Because North Dakota has the most lax voting requirements in the nation—there's no registration; you just show up on election day with proof that you've resided in the state for 30 days—and because the expected voter pool is so small (perhaps 350,000), both parties are making a play for support among the inhabitants of the "man camps." And while you'd expect such folks to lean GOP, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has one edge: Her campaign HQ is located in the western ND city of Mandan, while Rick Berg's home base is situated in Fargo, all the way on the state's eastern border with Minnesota. A good read.

OH-Sen: Does anyone else think Republican Josh Mandel is just crazy stressed these days? From a new half-interview he did with Canton-area radio host Ron Ponder (audio here):

Ponder: Joe Aquilino I believe you pronounce his name, a former campaign aide, was named Director of Debt Management, paid $90,000, had no experience in finance and you sent him to a beginner's course in the subject. How do you answer those charges?

Mandel: Well first of all, Ron, I thought I was going on the Ron Ponder show, not the Sherrod Brown campaign show.

Ponder: I'm asking you questions that people have asked you, and I'm just trying to get answers. I'll do the same thing with Senator Sherrod Brown, so don't accuse me of being a lackey for Sherrod Brown. I'm just asking you questions that my listeners want to know.

Mandel: Hey, I'm not accusing you Ron, I'm just telling you what it sounds like.…

Ponder: Now the Democrats are accusing you of the same thing, and I'm just asking you to answer the question about the salaries and the folks you've hired. I'm just asking you that question.

Mandel: Bunch of hogwash Ron, it's a bunch of hogwash. It's Sherrod Brown trying to distract from the record.

Ponder: Josh, is Michael Lord, is Michael Lord your former campaign manager, getting $100,000 from your office, is it yes or no?

Mandel: Ron we have qualified financial professionals in our office...

Ponder: Josh, is it yes or no?

Mandel: Sherrod Brown's the only candidate, the only candidate in this race, his transition director...

Ponder: Josh, just answer the question.

(After receiving no answers)

Ponder: Hang up on this dude, man.

WI-Sen: Tommy, can you hear me?
Mr. Thompson, usually gregarious, sounds anything but upbeat as he talks about his reason for running now. Is he having fun? No, he says twice. "I don't need this," he said.
Neither does Wisconsin!


CA-09: This news does not seem very bueno for Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney. A week-old internal taken by the Tarrance Group for Republican Ricky Gill and the NRCC finds McNerney trailing Gill, 45-46. There aren't any sanity checks provided (like presidential toplines), so it's hard to know what to make of these numbers. However, if there's any good news here, it's that the race has barely budged since late July, even according to Tarrance: Back then, they had McNerney up 47-45. (A McNerney internal from earlier that same month put him ahead 49-33.) We haven't yet seen any response to this latest survey from McNerney, but keep an eye out.

CA-30: Sheesh. Now Howard Berman, who has nakedly been making a play for the GOP vote for quite some time, is touting endorsements from ten California Republican congressmembers. As I've suggested before, this strikes me as a losing proposition borne out of desperation: There just aren't very many Republican voters in the new 30th District to begin with, but the better Berman does at scooping them up, the more he's apt to drive left-leaning voters into the arms of fellow Dem Rep. Brad Sherman. But as we've also said before, the demographics of this seat favor Sherman in a pretty structural way, so what else is Berman gonna do?

FL-02, UT-04: Here's another believer in Al Lawson's chances: Patriot Majority USA, which is following the DCCC's lead and tossing in $118K in an effort to unseat GOP Rep. Steve Southerland. They're also not giving up on Dem Rep. Jim Matheson in UT-04, throwing another $170K on the pile to help him against Mia Love as well.

FL-18: The House Majority PAC is out with yet another ad attacking GOP Rep. Allen West in Florida's 18th, but they don't appear to be upping their overall investment. (Their press releases have been holding steady at $1.5 million for a couple of weeks.) The SEIU is also getting into the mix with this new spot, backed by a $160K buy over two weeks.

IA-04: The Humane Society really has it in for GOP Rep. Steve King: They've been hectoring him with a few ads so far, but now they're going big with a $366K buy, much larger than any prior expenditure. Here's their new ad, attacking him on a variety of animal-related issues (like voting against a ban on taking kids to dog fighting rings).

IL-08: Well, as you know, We Ask America (despite their best efforts to conceal it) is the polling arm of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers' Association—an affiliation I wouldn't necessarily have such a problem with except, well, for their efforts to conceal it. So I'm always left wondering whether to trust their polling, which did a pretty decent job of House races in Illinois last cycle but has also offered some seriously questionable numbers in various races this year. Anyhow, they somehow have GOP Rep. Joe Walsh up 48-45 over Democrat Tammy Duckworth in a one-day robopoll, the first time he's ever led in any survey. I don't think I believe it, but I do believe Duckworth isn't manhandling Walsh in quite the way many of us had hoped and expected.

MA-06, NH-01, -02: So who's getting the shaft here? Or alternately, who's the DCCC feeling particularly good about? Shira Toeplitz says the D-Trip's cut back $650K worth of TV time in the Boston media market for the week of Oct. 23-29. That potentially covers three races: the GOP-held NH-01 and NH-02, and the Dem-held MA-06. In all three cases, it's possible to believe either scenario, though these days, I'm more inclined to believe the former rather than the latter.

MN-08: There are two new polls out in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, and neither of them make me want to be GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack. The first is from SurveyUSA, in what may be the first independent look at the race to date. They find Democrat Rick Nolan edging Cravaack 46-45, but the presidential toplines actually paint an even worse picture for the incumbent: Mitt Romney's up 47-45, in a district Barack Obama won by eight last time. A 10-point swing seems rather implausible, so this sample is probably overly optimistic for Republicans.

Meanwhile, Nolan himself has an internal from Victoria Research that puts him up 48-44. Somewhat unusually, Nolan seems to be responding to recent polling from his own side that painted a decidedly weaker picture for him: You'll recall that the D-Trip just put out toplines showing the race tied at 42, something Nolan's poll writeup specifically mentions. Sort of a head-scratcher of a move by the DCCC, since those were actually the softest numbers to date for Democrats. (Check out the second graf of Nolan's memo—it definitely sounds like he's saying, "Gee, thanks a lot for the help, fellas!")

NM-01: Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham is evidently eager to put this one to bed: She's just released a new internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner that gives her a commanding 55-40 lead over Republican Janice Arnold-Jones in this open-seat race. There are no presidential toplines, but MLG does provide trendlines for what I believe was a previously unreleased July survey that had her ahead 50-42.

NV-04: HMP is also coming into Nevada's 4th, a district where Republicans have remained much more competitive than a lot of Democrats probably imagined it would. They have a new ad targeting Danny Tarkanian as "part of a six-figure buy."

OH-06: Democrat Charlie Wilson is responding to GOP Rep. Bill Johnson's recent internal with one of his own, from Anzalone Liszt. Wilson's poll has him up 49-43 over Johnson, an improvement from a 46-all tie in the first half of September. But there's a bit of a red flag: Though it's not mentioned in the memo, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz says that Romney's up just 48-47 in Wilson's survey. That seems too optimistic, given that McCain won here by 8. Of course, Johnson's poll had the same problem in reverse: He was up 8 while Romney was up 14. So either the district is a lot redder or a lot bluer this time around... or the truth lies somewhere in between.

PA-06: Manan Trivedi (D): $433K raised.

Other Races:

Portland Mayor: Got a mayoral election? SurveyUSA can pickle poll that! Their latest look at Portland, Oregon's mayoral election finds city councilor Charlie Hales leading state Rep. Jefferson Smith 37-30. Thanks to increased support among Republicans, that's a bigger lead for Hales this time, up from 34-29 last month. (Hales and Smith are both liberals, in a nonpartisan race, but Hales is more downtown/insider.) (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

CFIF: The Center for Individual Freedom, a conservative non-profit at least partly funded by Karl Rove's Crossroads organization, has now made good on the $1.9 million in TV ad reservations the Huffington Post reported on last month. They're targeting Democrats in six races: IA-03, KY-06, NV-04, NY-21, NY-24, and UT-04. The buys range from $104K (Kentucky) to $464K (Nevada).

House: Very cool: The Cook Political Report has just re-published their Partisan Voting Index for the country's new congressional districts. This means that they've actually gone back and crunched the 2004 Bush-Kerry results according to the new lines as well, so that you can see how the last two presidential elections played out under the 2012 set of districts. (Our Obama-McCain data is, as ever, here). In addition to the raw data, Dave Wasserman also offers some extended analysis about how redistricting has affected the landscape in general, including how the so-called "median district"—the one which gets you to a theoretical majority of 218 seats in the House—has shifted rightward. That median seat is now R+3, or three points more Republican than the national average, after sitting at R+2 for the prior decade and R+1 in the 1990s, making the Democrats' task of retaking the lower chamber tougher than ever.

NRCC: The NRCC must be feeling quite good about its September haul, seeing as it released its fundraising figures a full 10 days early. They took in $12.4 million for the month, leaving them with $29.5 million in the bank. I hope it's not a worrying sign that, per Roll Call, the DCCC "declined [Wednesday night] to release its fundraising numbers for last month."

Polltopia: On Wednesday, your brain probably exploded when you heard about the remarks from Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, who said that his outfit wouldn't poll Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina again this cycle because they'd "already painted those red." New York Magazine's Dan Amira got some other pollsters (you know, legitimate ones) to offer their thoughts in response to Paleologos deciding that three bona fide swing states were actually safely Republican. Make sure you get to the last bit:

"I think all three of those states are still toss-ups," Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen told us. "We've already polled Virginia since the debate and Obama was up by 3. I don't agree with his assessment, and I don't know why he would have made it without even conducting any polling after the debates."

Gary Langer, who runs the ABC News/Washington Post poll, quipped tartly, "With that kind of foresight, we should find out who he likes in the fifth at Aqueduct."

SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve was harsher. "This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass," he said.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  PA Sen: Casey 48-38 (8+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:02:42 AM PDT

    •  You missed the better news (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, pademocrat, Sylv, itskevin, JBraden

      Kathleen Kane up 12, 41-29.

      I remember people thinking she couldn't win statewide because the GOP always wins PA-AG.  No one seemed to understand that in the past the GOP did a good job of picking strong candidates who could hold their own in certain Dem areas.  

      The GOP had a big fail this time in selecting someone form a small county without a lot of political sway.  if Kane is able to juice turnout in Scranton/NEPA on election night she could actually blow this thing out.

      Still kinda sad kane beat Murphy, but any Dem is better than Corbett was or Freed would be.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:55:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sandusky (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, JGibson, JBraden

        The elephant in the room in this race is Jerry Sandusky, and more specifically, Corbett's politically motivated handling/cover-up of the case while AG.  Kane has promised to fully investigate Corbett's role.  

        What we've seen with the Sandusky case is just the tip of the iceberg.  What's been hushed up so far is that this isn't actually a Penn State scandal, it's a Second Mile scandal, and there are a lot of very powerful, politically connected people at SM who could be in A LOT of hot water.  While the PSU people who have gone down so far due to this deserve the scrutiny they've gotten, they weren't actually involved in the criminal activity (except obviously Sandusky himself), but rather were lax in rooting it out at their institution.  The role of the people connected to SM will end up being much more insidious.  

        There are very powerful people who so far have thrown PSU under the bus and tried to firewall themselves from scrutiny.  The PA AG is the one who will have the power to blow the lid off this.  Expect this race to get really ugly in the final month if it looks like Kane could win.

        •  Not true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, auapplemac

          The PA-AG race is simply being won because Obama/Casey are storng and the GOP picked a bad candidate.  In vote rich Philadelphia, where much of the margin will be made, I'd doubt a good chunk of the electorate even links Corbett to Sandusky.

          The idea that Sandusky is tainting Corbett or tilting the PA-AG race in any way has been overblown by people who want it to be.  It's really more of an arithmetic exercise of coattails given the top of the ticket.  

          Let's face it Kane donated to Corbett.  To try and distance herself completely and blame Corbett in hindsight she would sound like a Paterno.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:52:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Good news for Kane, but Murphy is more of an (0+ / 0-)

        ideological Democrat. But things don't look as good in U.S. House races in se Pa. May be difficult to pick up seats there- Democrats have pulled money for tv.

        "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

        by TofG on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:28:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Dems never had a chance (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          In SEPA for pickups.  I never found Boockvar that inspring even and that's the best shot.  And even if she was dragged across the finish line in 2012, the seat would just flip back in 2014.

          I wish all that SEPA house money had gone elsewhere honestly.  

          Though I will miss the old ad wars like Jim Gerlach vs Lois Murphy as those ads were basically each accusing the other of eating puppies.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:33:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Casey is running a lazy campaign (0+ / 0-)

      I sincerely hope that he can get up off his butt and campaign.

  •  when is ppp going to release their snap poll (0+ / 0-)

    of the vp debate?

  •  Q: A 2 pt lead by Liz Warren from Rasmussen (6+ / 0-) worth how much in the real world? Anyone know?

  •  Steve Wynn a big Romney supporter just said on (8+ / 0-)

    CNBC "Forget teacher unions, teachers don't need them"  If kids pass the math test, or spanish test, give the teacher a $75,000 TAX CREDIT.  I am a teacher and it would take 20 years or more before I would pay enough in taxes to take the credit.

    I wish more could see how out of touch these republcans are.

    •  To be fair (3+ / 0-)

      his ridiculous suggestion is a credit, not a deduction. So, if you don't make much money you would get most of that as your return. But, without the union you would be making $20,000 a year so you would have to get this credit every year just to feed yourself. You would also be working year round with class sizes of 50. So yeah, he's full of it.

    •  Holy shit on a shingle! (And yes, I learned that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, DCCyclone, JBraden

      from a very cool teacher!) These people are beyond clueless, they are seriously twisted beyond belief.

      My Dad was a union man for 30 years until the day he died. Steamfitters Local 602


      "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. We must put our hands on it and we must bend it in the direction of justice." MLK

      by mindara on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:57:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't overstate Wynn's politics (0+ / 0-)

      He is a pragmatist and a businessman.  He has given plenty of money to Democrats as well.  I would be shocked if he hasn't given money to Berkley this cycle.

      "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." - J.S. Mill

      by dmsarad on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:25:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You guys should stop legitimizing Suffolk. nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

    by natedogg265 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:45:00 AM PDT

  •  Any news on Alan Grayson's run? (0+ / 0-)

    How's he doing? I really want to see him back in Congress. Imagine that ... Grayson along the side of Warren ... fighting for progressives with reality based facts.

    Returned Peace Corps Volunteer 2005-2007, The Gambia ... A Liberal Defense Contractor (Wha?!) ...

    by AfricanLived on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:50:34 AM PDT

  •  Scott Walker was on WTMJ-AM radio... (0+ / 0-)

    ...apparently doing damage control after Paul Ryan got his rear end kicked in the VP debate last night.

    "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:52:50 AM PDT

  •  Yep, the trolling wrong person story is funny (5+ / 0-)

    But remember that this wasn't the first time they've made that mistake

    Ohh and Joe has split local veterans group who normally solidify around Lugar

    All signs pointing up, just need some big coat tails from the up ticket

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:54:34 AM PDT

  •  how do you rate the debate winner (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DownstateDemocrat, itskevin

    i have an easy way, when you hear the right say no one watches the vp debate because it doesn't matter i take solace that the dems probably won.

    •  If Scott Walker is doing damage control... (7+ / 0-)

      ...on behalf of Paul Ryan, which he went on a Milwaukee radio station and did post-debate damage control on behalf of Ryan, it's safe to say that Biden won the debate.

      Also, all of the complaining about Martha Radditz, the moderator of the VP debate, is coming from right-wingers.

      "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:01:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Biden won because he won on about 4 issues. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, JGibson, itskevin, bythesea, JBraden

      1. He looked better all night.  Ryan was looking down a lot more, Biden had a signature grin and was shaking his head, etc. when not speaking, but looked happier overall.  

      2. On the issue of Afghanistan, Paul Ryan criticized the administration on reducing the number of troops during the fighting season and Biden said it's because more Afghan soldiers are doing the job.  It didn't seem to get processed right away with Paul Ryan right away and he got stuck arguing that we need more Americans on the front line instead of Afghan soldiers.  

      3. When asked about religion and pro-choice/pro-life Paul Ryan screwed up, because what Pro-lifers are supposed to say is that it should be up to the states, but Paul Ryan went a step further and said they'd try to pass legislation overturning Roe v. Wade.  Biden also had a line on that question about respecting other people's religions and not forcing it onto other people that scored off the charts on that same question.  

      4. When Paul Ryan criticized the administration on the stimulus package, Biden referenced the two letters Paul Ryan wrote asking for funds because they would "stimulate growth and job creation".  Paul Ryan previously has said it was a staffer error but this time he said they were applying for grants on behalf of constituents.  

      He had the better punches and didn't let Ryan get away with lies.  He said "That's a load of malarkey" a couple of times.  

  •  Ohio looks good, solid on presidential and senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, JBraden

    So does Virginia. I like that the senate race is almost the same numbers as the presidential. In this climate, who would vote for a dem senator and then vote for Romney? Makes no sense.

    What worries me are other sites touting some exit polls in Ohio showing Romney ahead? Anyone know anything about these?

    My dog is a member of Dogs Against Romney: He rides inside.

    by adigal on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:06:35 AM PDT

    •  What sites are are these? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, doroma, itskevin

      Only reports on early voting I've seen have been very positive in Ohio.

      •  There aren't any (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, doroma

        All signs point to Dems in the lead in early voting.  There is no evidence of any poll existing that shows Romney leading.  

        When you google Ohio Exit poll and limit it to just the last week, you find no actual exit polling data.

        Why do people post obvious heresay?

        here's a link to a good entry about Ohio and Iowa early voting thus far:

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:20:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Please, don't even (0+ / 0-)

          It is not heresy, I was asking a question. I was spying over at the freeper site, and they kept referencing exit polls in Ohio looking good, I really don't want to go over ther again to see. The only ones I could google were from the primary season.

          My dog is a member of Dogs Against Romney: He rides inside.

          by adigal on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 04:10:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Not Virginia (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, adigal

      Virginia is a pure tossup, if we get lousy turnout in NOVA Obama will lose. Not sure what's up with Kaine, most polls had him up by quite a bit but the usual right wing polls keep showing Allen up.

  •  John McCain on CNBC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, exreaganite, pademocrat

    Seems he was there to complain about just about everyone.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:09:41 AM PDT

  •  If Biden was smilin', Ryan was lyin'. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "I never meant to say that the conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally conservative." - John Stuart Mill

    by Kevinole on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:16:22 AM PDT

  •  Massachusetts Polling - don't get too cocky. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, pademocrat, oysterface, JBraden

    • MA-Sen (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D): 50 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 44 (46); Obama 55-41 (57-39)

    • MA-Sen (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D): 49 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 47 (48)
    Martha Coakley was up 15% against Scott Brown last time with about ten days to go.
    I expect Brown's out of state money will flood TV and radio beating the low-information voters into submission.

    "Your opponent can't talk when he has your fist in his mouth." - Bill Clinton

    by MethuenProgressive on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:19:57 AM PDT

  •  The thing about New Mexico (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MadRuth, Sylv, pademocrat

    It quit being a swing state exactly when we put in paper trail voting, though no one quite knew it in 2008.  We used to have a lot of "phantom votes" in Republican areas, and an unnaturally high level of undervotes in predominantly Hispanic and Native American precincts.  No more.  

    Though Republicans do better in lower turnout midterm elections: Thus Susana Martinez.  But will she be re-elected in 2014?  (Will she even run?)

    "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." Eldridge Cleaver, Black Panther Party (quoted by Paul Ryan without proper attribution)

    by Land of Enchantment on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:20:29 AM PDT

    •  Any evidence for this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      We used to have a lot of "phantom votes" in Republican areas, and an unnaturally high level of undervotes in predominantly Hispanic and Native American precincts.  No more.
      This is a very strong accusation, which needs to be justified with evidence.

      WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

      by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:33:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, for fuck's sake (5+ / 0-)

        It's not an "accusation", it's a description.  We had many precincts that showed more votes on the voting machines than voters who actually voted.  And it was in predominantly Republican areas for the most part.  

        I witnessed the undervotes myself as a poll watcher in one of the on-reservation precincts.  One in seven voters in the 2004 election skipped casting a vote in the top of the ticket race.  At the same time all the early and absentee votes in the same precinct included a choice for President.  I saw the tape that came out of the voting machine at the end of the day with my own eyes.

        I'm not speculating about the source of the problem, not accusing anyone of anything.

        But there was a definite problem.  The state put in paper trail voting, thanks to a small army of activists working at the state legislature.  Now, there's a physical ballot for each vote.  And the phantom votes have vanished (as well they should!) and the undervotes are very low, and pretty much consistent.  As should be expected.

        It's been pretty widely reported over the years.  I've done some diaries on it.  New Mexico has a voting system that can be audited and reviewed in the event of close races.  It's working better than the old system.

        That's not an accusation either.  It's a success story.

        Most recently, I touched on it here.  In more depth here, reviewing the 2006 midterm election.

        "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." Eldridge Cleaver, Black Panther Party (quoted by Paul Ryan without proper attribution)

        by Land of Enchantment on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:57:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  RAss: Romney 48-47 (0+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:35:30 AM PDT

  •  Can the polls in VA be more manic? (0+ / 0-)


  •  Senate Polls are looking good for Dems (0+ / 0-)

    with MT and NV being the ones that look most worrisome. Not only do Democrats look good for holding the majority, a gain to 54 to even 57 seats is possible.

    I sure would like to see more polls of the AZ, IN, and ND races - Dems seem to have the momentum in all 3.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:08:02 AM PDT

  •  Sherman v. Berman (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but Sherman v. Berman is getting a little more testy.

    LA Weekly has the full rundown here.

  •  Sherman/Berman (0+ / 0-)

    I am surprised you didn't mention that Sherman basically challenged Berman to a fight in the last debate.  I don't have a dog in this fight, but the videos are REALLY bad for Sherman.  Chuck Todd tweeted it, and I am sure some of the Cali media is covering it.

    "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." - J.S. Mill

    by dmsarad on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:24:25 AM PDT

  •  gawd, i hope that both Connie Mack... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, GayHillbilly

    and his wife, useless Representative Mary Bono Mack (CA-36), are dumped to their respective Florida and California curbs.  although, the Florida curb would be equally suitable for Ms. Mack because she pretty much lives there with hubby.  she is a 'no show' in her district.

    I'm a blue drop in a red bucket.

    by blue drop on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 11:28:20 AM PDT

  •  cell phone usage in swing states (0+ / 0-)

    Here's a look at the latest estimates from many of the battleground states at the presidential, Senate and gubernatorial levels this year:

    -- Arizona: 38.2 percent (up from 33.2 percent in 2010).
    -- Colorado: 38.7 percent (33.2 percent)
    -- Connecticut: 18.7 percent (15.3 percent)
    -- Florida: 34.4 percent (30 percent)
    -- Hawaii: 26 percent (23.1 percent)
    -- Indiana: 32.8 percent (28.3 percent)
    -- Maine: 31.6 percent (25.7 percent)
    -- Massachusetts: 21.3 percent (17.3 percent)
    -- Michigan: 35.8 percent (30.8 percent)
    -- Missouri: 32.5 percent (25.8 percent)
    -- Nevada: 34.7 percent (27.9 percent)
    -- New Hampshire: 23.6 percent (17.3 percent)
    -- New Mexico: 36 percent (29.9 percent)
    -- North Carolina: 32.8 percent (27.1 percent)
    -- North Dakota: 41.6 percent (38.1 percent)
    -- Ohio: 33.4 percent (28 percent)
    -- Virginia: 26.6 percent (22.6 percent)
    -- Washington: 33.8 percent (30.2 percent)
    -- Wisconsin: 33.8 percent (29 percent)

    and the 16 page memo from NIH:

    so a robocall pollster is excluding 38% of the population of Arizona from its sample

  •  I would tend to believe... (0+ / 0-)

    ...the Duckworth/Walsh numbers.  I was on that robopoll and it was straightforward if a little invasive on the demographics questions.

    Based on the number of signs out on personal property she is getting her ass handed to her.  The only notable thing about signs is that it does not look like the regular republicans in DuPage county are getting behind walsh.  There are houses all over the place with signs for every republican running locally but they don't include Walsh signs.  like his campaign is not liked or has not supplied signs to the precint people.  Same sort of for romney but you can expect that romney would not be spending on sings in Illinois.  But still some have them.  Probably paid for them.

    I went to the last debate and about 2/3 of the room were walsh supporters with a decidedly tea party feel to them.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 01:23:35 AM PDT

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