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House of Ras and ARG up with Florida and NH numbers and not looking good-i am hoping that VP debate will atleast make the slide in Florida halt to some extent. Joe has been really impressive with the seniors there (heck seemed like he was even charming Ryan's mom last night)

Here are the numbers

Florida (Rasmussen Reports) Romney 51 - Obama 47 (even with a 2 point House effect it seems Romney is ahead by 2 points there)
Florida (ARG) Romney 49 - Obama 46 (not sure on the house effect here but will still make a slight Romney edge)

NH (ARG) Romney 50 - Obama 46, NH will always be a tough state to poll and unless you see Obama's margins in other NH polls to 6+ i will consider it a very close state post first Debate

**********************
Updated with VA RAS numbers that just came out confirming that VA is probably dead even now, Romeny 49 - Obama 47
*
*********************

In my opinion we are a little behind in Florida while NH should still have a small Obama lead. More worrying is Colorado. Of course winning Florida will seal the deal on Election day along with Ohio but losing Florida, VA and Colorado will make it really tough.
Colorado i am very hopeful we will start to see reversing back to Team Obama in the next few days while VA will be dead even for now

Links moved to after the jump

Florida link : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

NH link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lighttheway, annecros
  •  got any links? n/t (0+ / 0-)

    Die with your boots on. If you're gonna try, well stick around. Gonna cry? Just move along. The truth of all predictions is always in your hands. - Iron Maiden

    by Cedwyn on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:48:15 AM PDT

  •  not that tough (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, librarisingnsf, Supavash

    "losing Florida, VA and Colorado will make it really tough."

    OH, WI and NV would win it, and we're leading in all of those (and IA would substitute for either WI or NV, and we're ahead there, even according to Ras...).

    Besides, we'll win VA anyway..

    •  It's the trend that matters. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bagger, RichM, annecros

      Right now, all polls - national and state - are trending heavily in favor of Romney.  If this trend continues over the next few days, and we learn that Romney is still gaining, the whole firewall theory becomes bunk because FL, NC and VA will all be solidly in Romney's column and OH will likely be a toss-up with a trend toward Romney.  That means we'll be left to to guerrilla warfare in PA and WI.

      I think we now know that Obama's debate debacle resulted in a fundamental realignment of the race rather than just a bump or bounce for Romney.  It's nearly impossible to argue otherwise at this point.   I think the threshold question now is whether Romney is still gaining.  If so, we are entering true desperation time for the Obama campaign because they simply have so little time to turn it around.  If the realignment has leveled off, then Obama still has a good chance, if not the upper-hand.

      Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

      by JCPOK on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:10:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        annecros

        I agree.  It appears that until last night, the trend is still towards Rmoney.  The Jobs numbers may have buffered that trend, but it didn't stop it.  Time will tell if Biden has stopped or reversed the trend.  And next Tuesday debate is really do or die for Obama.

        Why is Mitt Rmoney so happy that an American embassy was attacked? Why does he hate America?

        by RichM on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:25:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash

        PA is not up for grabs and you left out Iowa.  Firewall theory is not bunk and FL, VA are not solidly in Romney column (either is NC).

        Trend is not so dire. Mason Dixon is an outlier (like Pew). If you take ARG and Rasmussen with NBC, FL and VA are still essentially toss ups (with 1 - 2 pt Romney gain as Nate has said).

         

  •  Yeah... (0+ / 0-)

    Although I don't 'like' ARG and Ras because of their polling methods, the trend with Ras is in Rmoney's favor.  I am hoping that Biden looking into the camera and asking Seniors if their medicare has improved will help in Florida.  There still seems some bleed here from last weeks debacle.

    Why is Mitt Rmoney so happy that an American embassy was attacked? Why does he hate America?

    by RichM on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:51:19 AM PDT

  •  GOP Utilizing Polling as Political Tool (12+ / 0-)

    Dems will learn one lesson from these elections - partisan polling is now used as an effective political poll.

    GOP organizations and media outlets are now pumping huge amount of money into ARG, Rasmusssen, Gravitas, etc. to create the meme that Romney is still surging.

    Look at what's come out of Florida over the past 2 days - 4 polls from 4 GOP leaning pollsters (ARG. Rass, Gravitas and MD), all showing Romney with significant leads.  Do you think that is coincidence?  No fucking way.

    The first step in Romney's election path is to secure FL.  So, the GOP is trying to knock Obama out of FL and then fight a guerrilla war in OH, VA and PA (yes, I think they go after PA if Obama concedes FL).  Thus, the polls from FL.

    Dems needs more got-to pollsters and we need to budget for more polling.  The GOP is killing us with partisan polling.  

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:53:21 AM PDT

  •  The real test is to go back to September (5+ / 0-)

    A time when Obama was believed to be doing well. It's the trend here that matters.

    I understand that both Ras and ARG have been very hard on Obama in general.

    When we were ahead, people at DailyKos said to fight like we were behind. When we were behind, people at DailyKos said to give up.

    by NoFortunateSon on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:54:29 AM PDT

  •  Obama has to expose Romney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RichM, pademocrat, Supavash

    and promote himself in the next debate.  If he does, he'll win.  If he doesn't he won't.

    Keep Calm and Carry On. But kick some unholy ass if the situation warrants.

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:55:01 AM PDT

  •  Certainly seems like (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annecros

    we're probably losing Florida by a couple points right now.

  •  ARG has Romney leading NH by 4 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Rasmussen had it tied so I think ARG is just another right wing pollster. The senate is still looking good.I am afraid Obama is in trouble in Florida but as long as he hold Ohio he will be fine.

  •  Any major shift in national polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, annecros

    toward Romney was likely to shift FLorida and NC away from Obama first. That's what has happened. Another lousy performance by Obama next week and we might see OH, NH and VA go as well.

  •  Things will begin to turn around (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, pademocrat, Supavash

    on Saturday when sampling starts coming in after Thursday's debate. Dems will start feeling energized and more leaners who have switched will switch back because they see more now what the R's are trying to sell the country, a pig in a poke or a sack of s

  •  What are the crosstabs on these polls? (0+ / 0-)

    The Pew Poll recently release that had Romney on top 49% to 45% not only had more GOPers than Democrats, but also oversampled seniors, southerners, and midwesterners.

    •  they didn't over sample party id (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HudsonValleyMark

      they sample by demographics (as they should). Maybe they did by region but Party Id comes from question they ask after they get representative sample. Apples and Oranges.

    •  They did sample fewer African Americans, Young peo (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      Last ARG FL poll - when O was up 5 - the sample included 12% African Americans and 50% 18-49 years. This ARG poll included 9% African Americans and only 48% 18-49. So more retirees and fewer AA.  

      Big drop off in support in 50+ group - from 47% in the last pre-debate poll to 42% now. Obama also went down 4 points with women.

      Only 600 voters. Not a great poll...Also no geography control as far as I can tell (Florida is four very different states).

      Enough changes to consider putting this one in the trash. Mason Dixon is a good pollster though...

      http://americanresearchgroup.com/...

  •  If we win OH but lose VA and FL, then ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    choclate, Supavash

    We have to win just one of WI, IA, CO.  And I'm counting NH for our side.

    So as much as this blows, and as much as we want to kid ourselves that the pollsters suck or whatever today's excuse is, OH is it.

    'Baracking a debate' will be something Presidential candidates for the next 30 years will want to avoid.

  •  VA is dead? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sebastianguy99, Supavash

    What are you talking about?

  •  This CONFIRMS that Romney has solidified his lead (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annecros, BostonBilly

    in the swing state polls and the nationals.

    I'm sorry, but that debate FUCKED US. PERIOD.

    People were saying before that Romney's poll bump would fade after the debate faded and the jobs report was more included - so now the line has been moved to "wait until Biden's debate comes through"? SERIOUSLY?

    ADMIT IT, GUYS - WE ARE NOW, LITERALLY, LOSING this election.

    PERIOD.

    So here's what you do: GET OFF YOUR ASS, STOP POSTING ON THE INTERNET, WALK INTO YOUR LOCAL OFA OFFICE AND VOLUNTEER FOR A SHIFT. NOW.

    Again - STOP WITH THE DENIAL: ROMNEY HAS SOLIDIFIED HIS LEAD AFTER THE DEBATE, HE NOW HAS MOMENTUM AND WE ARE LOSING THE ELECTION - IT'S MATH. ROMNEY CAN NOW EASILY WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, HE WOULD WIN. GOT IT?

    STOP TRYING TO SAY, "no, really, everything's okay because Biden won the debate".

    BIDEN'S DEBATE IS NOT GOING TO MOVE THE POLLS ONE INCH AND YOU KNOW IT.

    VOLUNTEER. NOW.

    Because - and here it is again: WE ARE LOSING THE ELECTION.

    OH - want to say I'm "doom and gloom"? WELL GUESS WHAT...THE REALITY IS DOOMY AND GLOOMY.

    WELCOME TO REALITY.

    WE ARE NOW LOSING THE ELECTION.

    SO VOLUNTEER.

    NOW.

  •  I don't trust (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, sebastianguy99, Supavash

    these GOP leaning outfits.

    NBC/WSJ/Marist has Obama ahead by 1 in Florida in their latest poll. CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama up 5 in Virginia (and, PPP has us up 4 in VA). We are clearly in the lead in NH.

  •  Florida whatever (0+ / 0-)

    You could tell me Obama is up 5 in FL on election eve and I still wouldn't put it in his column. I've never assumed he would win it, because of the shenanigans down there. He might pull it out, in which case the election is over, but who among us would count on it?

    NH is more troubling because it would indicate trouble in other places like Iowa and Colorado. I will note these ARG polls were taken Oct 5-8 immeditaly after the debate.

    •  Re ARG poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      " I will note these ARG polls were taken Oct 5-8 immeditaly after the debate."

      Well that's good to know.

      ARG is the one pollster that everyone mocked in 2008 so I'm not going to worry about NH until I see some confirmation there.  

      But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

      by thezzyzx on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:31:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Chuck Todd on Rasmussen: "slop" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sebastianguy99, Supavash

    I can't remember if anyone here noted this, but there was this dust-up a few days ago between Chuck Todd and Ras where Todd called Ras polls "slop" compared to NBC's polls.  Thought it might be a little relevant:

    Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Todd got into a heated argument over the validity of Scott Rasmussen’s polls as compared with those commissioned by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal.

    “We spend a lot more money polling than Scott Rasmussen does,” said Todd on CNBC. “These guys are the gold standard. We spend so much money. So, it is unfair — I hate the idea their polling, which is rigorously done – has to get compared to what is, in some cases, you know, slop.”

    http://www.mediaite.com/...
  •  one thing... (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen had Romney up 2 in NH last month now Rassy has it tied. Rasmussen has shown the race is just about where it was pre-debate and he showed Obama up for the first time whole cycle in both Iowa & Colorado.

       Gallup has stated that numbers are starting to revert back to pre-debate numbers.

  •  Demographics and Turnout the key (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sebastianguy99

    Fromm CNN Politics/Front page stating "Romeny ahead in polls"
    Talking about yesterday's poll finding Romney ahead by 7

    Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

    "We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

    So it will indeed come down to turn out if Obama team believes we have 47% of voters certainly voting for us in Florida. Still i need to see one more poll in FL in the next 72 hours showing POTUS ahead by a min. of 2 points, else i would say like others that in FL we are a little behind. Certainly not over, reason why FL is important as i posted in my diary above- if we win FL and OH then it is in the bag

  •  All you need to know about ARG: (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/...

    That link will show you what the state of the race was four years ago today.

    If you hover over West Virginia, you will see the results of an ARG poll taken on Oct. 8, 2008. It shows Barack Obama with an 8-point lead over John McCain.

    McCain won West Virginia by 13 points.

    So, an ARG poll taken less than a month before the election was off by a mere 21 points.

    I have no idea whether some of the folks in this thread are concern trolls or merely bed-wetters.

    Either way, it's annoying as hell.

    Obama will end up on election day with either 290, 303, or 332 electoral votes.

    If you care so much, folks, then make a better use of your time by knocking on doors, picking up the phone, and donating, especially if you live in OH, VA, FL, or the other handful of states that matter most.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:50:09 AM PDT

  •  Bummer Gallup moves back to Romney +2 (0+ / 0-)

    49-47 for Mittens today

  •  Chuck Todd talked about this the other day (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Janie14

    He noted that the Romney uptick in the polls seems to be concentrated in already deep red states from GOP'ers who are finally throwing their support behind Romney, but that in swing states, Romney's gains are minimal.

  •  Good Michigan poll from Ras (3+ / 0-)

    Has Obama plus 7, which is important -- not for Michigan itself, but Michigan remaining solid is important for keeping a small lead in neighboring Wisc. and Ohio.

    And this is hearsay because I myself cannot find internals, but Jeff Gauvin @JeffersonObama  on Twitter claims no Hispanics were sampled in Fla.  ARG poll.

    I am not a pollyanna but I do not buy being down 7 in Fla.  I buy being down, within margin of error.

    •  ARG's table (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      agkhalil123

      via Pollster: here

      The table reports only whites (73%) and African American (9%). I observe that 73 + 9 << 100. I will guess that Hispanic voters are included in the other 18%. Maybe Gauvin didn't notice that 73 + 9 << 100. Or maybe he is working from something else, who knows what.

      ARG doesn't say whether they weight their results, and I don't remember anything about their methods. I bet African Americans will be more than 9% of the November electorate; I cannot tell whether ARG has taken this into account.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 10:56:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt Gauvin is right about that (0+ / 0-)

      Here (via Pollster) is a partial crosstab. It lists whites as 73% and African Americans as 9%. I note that 73 + 9 << 100. I'm betting there were some Hispanics in there. Maybe Gauvin bet the other way.

      I'll also bet that African Americans will make up more than 9% of the Florida electorate. I don't see ARG's methods statement, if there is one, so I don't know if they compensate for this. None of this inspires confidence in the poll.

      I agree. I can easily believe that Romney is slightly ahead in Florida, not that he is ahead by 7.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 11:01:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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