After the VP debate last night, many pundits felt that nothing would move the electorate more than two issues that were discussed last night:
1. The Economy, and
2. Women's rights
Bloomberg News has this excellent piece detailing several indices that point to a much stronger economic recovery than many economists had predicted.
Titled " Surprise Jack Welch Missed Shows Better U.S. Growth" the article's money quote is
“These numbers are what they are, they’re not being slanted. On a scale of one to 10, the economy is at a fairly firm six and may be heading higher.”
More below .......
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index compares 38 indicators with analysts’ predictions.
The index, based on gauges compiled by private businesses and trade groups in addition to government, confirms U.S. growth is generating jobs in the face of a global slowdown and looming federal spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff.
What Jack Welch probably had in mind prior to the release of the Oct 5th BLS 7.8% number was a "prediction" by 88 economists that the unemployment number was likely to go up to 8.2%. Understandably, the angry white man went bats$%^ crazy when he saw the lower number!
But the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index shows that a growing number of economic measures are exceeding expectations.
Other indices showing better results include
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index shows a more pronounced improvement. It jumped to 49.4 today from this year’s low of minus 65.3 on July 19. A positive reading suggests the economic releases have on balance been better than the Bloomberg consensus.
and
Sales of previously owned houses, reported by the National Association of Realtors, rose 7.8 percent in August to a two- year high. Cars sold at a 14.9 million annual rate in September, the fastest pace since 2008, according to Ward’s Automotive Group.
Consumer sentiments also went against economists' projections
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment jumped in October to the highest level since September 2007, before the last recession began, a report today showed. The index rose to 83.1 from 78.3 the prior month
...
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index registered minus 38.5 in the week ended Oct. 7, close to the prior week’s reading of minus 36.9, which was the highest in three months.
So much for the conspiracy theorists out there.....
Cheers!