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Gail Collins:

Obama versus Romney on Tuesday! That will be far more important than the conventions. Or the first debate, which President Obama sort of lost, in a game-changing moment that we are now prepared to completely forget because it’s all about the next debate.

Which will be so far more important than the vice-presidential debate that we can hardly bear to mention them in the same paragraph.

Although that thing on Thursday was pretty cool. Paul Ryan’s eyes! Joe Biden’s teeth! Paul Ryan’s water intake! Can that man hydrate, or what?

Some sobering polling data from Nate Silver:
Mitt Romney continues to surge in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, and Friday may have featured his best set of polls all year.
Still, Obama built a big enough lead to be even at this point. And yeah, he needs a good next debate. And yeah, there's been a flood of crappy pollsters. But as of now, the polls need to start moving in the other direction for Obama to remain the favorite. A week ago Friday was probably Romney's strongest polling day post-debate, and that's gone from most (but not all polls). So, from today on, what we see is where we are.

Jon Cohen:

When Mitt Romney was trailing in public polls before the first presidential debate — particularly in swing states — his campaign manager was dismissive, contending that, according to his camp’s superior internal data, the race was “inside the margin of error.” After the debate, when Romney grabbed the advantage in some public surveys, it was the Obama campaign arguing that “polls don’t matter.”

Well, polls do matter. And it matters how they’re conducted and scrutinized. When trying to make sense of the numbers, here are a few myths to keep in mind.

Graham T. Allison Jr. and Shai Feldman:
For three years Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, seemed to be united in urging an early military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But last week that alliance collapsed, with Mr. Netanyahu accusing Mr. Barak of having conspired with the Obama administration, in talks behind his back.
Less people wanting war? Amazing. Byzantine Israeli politics? Not so amazing.

Michael P. McDonald:

Early voting -- both mail and in-person -- is on pace to exceed 2008 levels, when about 30 percent of all votes nationally were cast prior to Election Day. The 2008 levels may be exceeded even further in states such as Iowa and Ohio, where early voting has been brisk. As a corollary, with no collapse in early voting, there is no indication so far that overall turnout, both early and Election Day, will be substantially lower than 2008.
Keep on being skeptical of likely voter screens that assume otherwise.

Jonathan Bernstein:

You’ll hear over and over again in the coming weeks that the national vote doesn’t matter in presidential elections, that all that really matters is what’s happening in the states, especially the swing states. Technically, that’s true.

But in practice, the only people who need to pay attention to state polls, even at this late date, would be those who make decisions about where to deploy campaign resources and those who plan to enter a pool that requires predictions of individual states. If you want to know who will win the election, however, you’re still better off focusing on a good average of national polls.

Why?

It’s pretty simple. If either candidate wins the national vote by three percentage points or more, it’s virtually certain he will also win the electoral college.

Bernstein advises following HuffPost's pollster.com or RCP or fivethirty-eight, like we do. And for good measure, there's Predictwise, a nice summary of the betting markets. Romney's gaining in all of them, closing in on 40% chance to win. Obama still leads in all of them, but needs to turn the polls around.

Roger Simon:

Whatever Joe Biden was drinking Thursday night, Barack Obama ought to order a case of it.

Biden took on Paul Ryan in the one and only vice presidential debate and did what Obama had failed to do last week in his debate with Mitt Romney: Biden not only won over the audience, but got under his opponent’s skin.


The real reason debate was good for Dems: Biden delivered aggressive defense of Obama's economic record: http://t.co/...
@ThePlumLineGS via TweetDeck

John Sides:
Here’s some breaking news: the kind of people who choose to watch a vice-presidential debate instead of baseball or football or a cooking show are not sensitive souls who curl up into a ball at the first sign of disagreement between politicians.  People who choose to watch political conflict can deal with it.  Those who can’t—or just aren’t interested in the first place—are watching something else.  Research by political scientists Kevin Arceneaux and Martin Johnson shows this.

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Comment Preferences

    •  cheer up (32+ / 0-)

      today's RAND poll:

      https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:39:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just saw your tweet (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jnhobbs, skohayes, doroma, Mary Mike, stagemom

        and RT'd the cunning little thing.

      •  Thanks, Greg Dworkin (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        doroma, tb mare, Mary Mike, Vicky, stagemom

        I needed that.

        Eliminate tax breaks that stimulate the offshoring of jobs.

        by RJDixon74135 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:02:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I feel a tiny bit better (9+ / 0-)

        But the first thing I do every morning is look at Nate's blog.  I've been nauseous all week.  Worried and scared.  I hope these polls make Democrats wake up and GOTV.  I am horribly upset that Florida has gone from medium blue to deep, deep red.  Makes me sick.  

        We're being bombarded by horrible ads on TV and radio.  Rove's group is running 90% of them.  I can't listen to my oldies station in the morning, because I turn it off every time I hear one of those ads, which seems to be after every damn song.  I can't listen to the non-oldies rock station, because of those ads.  My XM radio is on the fritz so I can't get away from regular radio until I get it looked at.  

        "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

        by Ricochet67 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:23:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL was always Obama's toughest must win (6+ / 0-)

          for romeny. OH, VA  and Co are doable.

          my guess is FL goes red in the end, unless the ground game is better than the voter suppression.

          http://www.cnn.com/...

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:28:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I have to admit, I worried about FL but I did not (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wintergreen8694, mightymouse

            want to discourage all of our great folks in FL busting their butt to GOTV.

            Is Florida really deep red now? In just a few days went from light blue to toss up to suddenly deep red.

            I thought it was pink, slightly red..but deep deep red...really < Hioly cow..

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:41:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I gave up on FL when they elected Rick Scott. (0+ / 0-)

              How a state could elect a criminal - a Medicare fraud criminal, no less, in a state full of retirees - was so far above (or below) my understanding I just gave up.  Now, I don't know anyone who lives in FL who isn't a retiree, and they're all determined to vote for Romney.  Makes no sense at all; must be something in the water there.

              "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

              by SueDe on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:18:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not all of us! (0+ / 0-)

                There are a bunch of us in SoFla that are not retirees and are True Blue!  But we're outnumber by bigoted retirees like my mom.  However, she said she's not voting this year because she hates everybody - she absolutely has to vote Republican whenever she votes so that God (and her hair dresser) won't strike her dead.  So she's pretty much decided that she doesn't want to piss me OR the hair dresser off, so she's just not going to vote.  I can't say I'm sorry - she has no idea about any of the issues, the constitutional amendments or anything.  Every time I try to talk to her about it, to give her some basic info, she literally leaves the room so she won't listen.  She's the lowest of low information voters - at 86 she has absolutely no interest in anything other than her soap, going to church on Sunday, reading the obits every day and getting her hair done on Friday.  She hates that dad died first - sometimes I think she's mad because he left her on her own to "cope" with stuff she "shouldn't have to do" (like hire a guy to mow her lawn).  She's stuck in the last century or something and much as I love her, it's really really frustrating to deal with her willful ignorance about important things.  

                "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

                by Ricochet67 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 01:55:28 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Damn.... put that in the diary,not just the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes

        comments...

        The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

        by CTMET on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:25:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How much of the polls tightening... (2+ / 0-)

        ...is the convergence of the initial prevailing narrative of the first debate AND the completion of the transition from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" screening among all the serious pollsters?

        Is there some validity to this particular variation on "fighting the last battle" in that pollsters are ever so slightly weighting that "basket of voters" - consciously or unconsciously -  with a bit more of the 2010 electorate than perhaps they should?

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:34:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  sure, in the sense that LV screens (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pinto Pony, Mary Mike, Egalitare

          screen out new voters to a greater or lesser extent.

          My advice for now is also look at RVs where available (Gallup, Ipsos, major media polls like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CBS/NYT) and look at the difference between them as well as their trend lines.

          Robopolls do not separate out RV and LV (just LV), and they generally don't include cell phones.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:38:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I like this picture... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, tb mare, Mary Mike, doroma

        Made my Saturday morning much cheerier. I wish I knew enough about polls to overlie Rand's trendlines over others and see how well they have matched or, for example, if they have somewhat anticipated trends by other pollsters. I guess we'll see if they do regardless within a few days. Just don't know how well my nerves will hold up.

        •  just match it with the pollster graph at the top (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mary Mike

          they are very similar and diverge only in the last few days.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:06:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  THANK YOU (0+ / 0-)

        THANK YOU.  THANK YOU  THANK YOU.  WHOEVER YOU ARE, THANK YOU.

    •  It's surreal - and fishy (12+ / 0-)

      There's just no way Romney can undue all of his own blunders in one debate.  There is crazy shit going on behind the scenes to create the illusion that Mitt is still in this.  Team Citizens United really needs to convince all of their 2008 turnouts to not stay home because they know damn well Obama has all of his 2008 turnouts and has built upon his massive GOTV for the past 4 years.

      Why do you think the Republicans are still playing defense in NC?  I live here - we're getting carpet bombed with ads and visits from Mitt Romney himself, Ryan etc.

      Defense in NC in October.  

      Ponder that for a minute.

      •  There is another (12+ / 0-)

        explanation.  Maybe a lot of people were holding off supporting Romney due to their doubts about him and he erased those.  Or maybe - this seems somewhat unlikely - a significant portion of Obama's support was squishy.  Whatever.  It's close - that sucks but is do-able.

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:49:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Republican party is shrinking (5+ / 0-)

          Any McCain voters holding off on Romney are still McCain voters and McCain fell way short of Obama.

          Obama's support is not so squishy that he would lose supporters in a debate where Romney aimed a bazooka at Big Bird.

          It's really warped reality to think that McCain's red headed stepchild colleague will outperform him.

          •  I am doing a research (2+ / 0-)

            paper on the degree to which racism hurt Obama in the 2008 election (one of the issues I'm addressing).  It is a factor and the enthusiasm is lower this time (simply because he's the incumbent - to be expected) but I agree, I don't think Obama will lose.  Race - sadly - does remain an issue.  And it does cost him votes.  

            Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

            by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:01:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But the number of racists is fixed (4+ / 0-)

              Where are the Republicans finding all these new undedicated lifelong racists?  Which ones were not racist enough that they sat out 2008?  It's the same crowd - the exact same crowd as McCain in 2008.  

              Unless we are to assume that Obama's 2008 support included racists who will now turn on him because they finally realize he's black after all these years.

              Racism is becoming less of a factor in politics - that's why the elite class pushed for Citizens United.  

              Their Limbaugh AM/FM radio, dinosaur media machine is being displaced by Twitter, citizens blogging, Facebook, Internet marketing strategy.

              So what do you do when your strategy is outdated and flawed?  You spend more money to bail out the water of your sinking ship.

              •  There are different (3+ / 0-)

                types of racism.  There was a lot triggered by the election of Obama.  Previously, it was okay for black people to have power in activism, sports and entertainment, for the most part.  Suddenly, the paradigm shifts with Obama's election - the symbolism of the event was shocking to some.  So this sort of "symbolic" or "inferential" racism has emerged as a strong force.  However, the demographics are also changing and this is an Obama strength. It's hard to know which will prevail in this election - it is going to be close and Obama always knew this, from what I am told and read.  

                Okay, it's close. In close elections, ground game matters and so does making sure that every voter votes and every vote counts.  That is something we can help with.  We can canvass, donate, poll watch, challenge anything hinky.  We can work to win.

                Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

                by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:18:55 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Do you think that might apply to some who voted (0+ / 0-)

                  for him 4 years ago...as he did get 69 million votes. The racism is deep and subsconcious , I agree. but among his supporters from that election?  As perhaps  some were not strong supporters or become disenchanted, believing the Obamacare and death panels myths. Maybe they are unhappy with some of his policies or decisions or priorities or they think he is too liberal or too moderate?  

                  Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

                  by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:27:51 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  the data I've read (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wishingwell

                    indicated that conditions in 2008 would have indicated a landslide type margin and that the survey research they did revealed a significant measurable amount of latent racism in the voters, especially those who labeled themselves as independents.

                    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

                    by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:59:56 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  So the latent racism was trumped by them (0+ / 0-)

                      not liking McCain / Palin so voted for Obama as default ?  Was that Bush fatigue?

                      So in that case, would those Obama voters who displayed some degree of racism...did Palin Fear and Bush fatigue and Old age of McCain overcome racism:>

                      I shoudl not joke but maybe fear of Palin trumps racism  . could that twit be useful for something?  Nah....LOL

                      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

                      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:03:47 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The research I have (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        wishingwell

                        read actually attributes Obama's fairly significant victory to enthusiasm overcoming racism.  The racism was measured by using methods that were designed to overcome the "social desirability" issue (e.g. people not wanting to admit to being or thinking of themselves as racist).  

                        The "enthusiasm" was in part due to the freshness and novelty of Obama's 2008 campaign and that is simply a factor that no incumbent has.  Kennedy would not have had it in 1964.  Will the ground game be sufficient to overcome that?  I think it certainly can based on sheer demographics.  But it is hard work.

                        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

                        by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:06:45 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                •  this article (0+ / 0-)

                  though not scholarly research, is a nice encapsulation of the issue:

                  http://www.theatlantic.com/...

                  Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

                  by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:07:58 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  He was black 4 years ago as I recall, and I doubt (0+ / 0-)

                that few who voted for him last time will not vote for him this time based on race. I could be wrong.

                I think what happened in polls is maybe  is some swing voters change their mind but could change again. Swing voters often change their minds several times in an election cycle. Maybe they loved him after election and decided to vote for him but were not sure and then they believe Mitt lies and saw him on stage and believed the media hype and changed their minds.

                The swing voters ..some may swing back again..particularly women who swung to Mitt after his debate but once they hear Obama confront Mitt on the womens issues like Joe did with Ryan last night, may very well reconsider their vote for Mitt.

                Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

                by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:24:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I read an article in Time in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

                  Shortly before the election. They predicted an Obama win b/c of the economy. Many of the people interviewed were holding their nose to vote for him, expressing a mixture of distrust of him and exasperation of the economy.

                  Hell, my own mother, a longtime republican, voted for him in 2008, because she didn't like the racist attacks against him--though she has struggled and lost against her own racism all her life. (Cuban immigrants, BTW--can be very racist).  She almost immediately regretted it and now has joined the Marxist-Communist-Islamist-Kenyan brigade.

                  Things are VERY different this time around.

                •  Yes, Wishingwell, he was black 4 yrs ago too (0+ / 0-)

                  But the thing I've noticed is that this electorate has an odd way of expecting heroics from this one that that they never seemed to expect from the 43 other presidents who preceeded him; whereas, Mitt Rmoney was so weak that he absolutely struggled to eak out a win against what was arguably the weakest field in US history. Rmoney then spent all summer tripping up, insulting everyone, & mishandling his campaign. Do you seriously believe that a non-white male w/ THAT record would still have a viable chance, even after hiding his tax returns?  (Where's the skepticism & distrust for him there?) Some people must always prove themselves, even when they've held the job, while others have a presumption of competence - whether they deserve it or not. And BTW, I'm not even saying that Rmoney wasn't succe$$ful at Bain, I'm just saying that doesn't mean he's qualified to be president; anymore than I'd let a great doctor pilot my plane.

          •  Ok but unfortunately this is not 2008. (0+ / 0-)
        •  or a lot of new pollsters (6+ / 0-)

          who we know little about are trying to flood the zone...

        •  I believe both these things were at play (3+ / 0-)

          We've been making voter ID calls for months. Some of Obama's support was indeed "squishy." These voters were going to vote for him probably, but you could tell it would be relatively easy to push them either the other way or deflate any energy around voting. This has been true from the get go here in my reddish county. As for Romney, there was (and still is) this great concern about his "cult" religion among the typical religious base republican voter., and thre's no question that concern was reflected in the polls.  But even though I've heard it said this would keep some of those voters home, that was never true. They would far rather have a man wearing magic underware than a black man in the White House. In my opinion, for what it's worth, the current polling is actually where we always were in race. The debate just pushed it into the light.

          "Whenever a fellow tells me he's bipartisan, I know he's going to vote against me."-- Harry S. Truman

          by irmaly on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:09:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Bingo. Remember who actually decides elections: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mightymouse

          independent voters, not the party line types.

          Democrats have relied an awful lot on "big bad mean and nasty" Mitt campaigning.  That can be pretty effective -- unless the big bad mean and nasty guy gets in front of people and looks to be not so big, bad, mean and nasty

          I can't really fault the Obama campaign on strategy.  If this is an "anybody but Obama" year -- and it could be -- the issues become a lot less important than the "scare factor".  People who aren't happy with the administration might stay home or vote for the President because they are afraid of Mitt.  If Mitt doesn't scare them, they might vote against the administration.

          27 million unemployed and under-employed people (and their families) is a pretty good pool of people with reason not to be happy with the Obama administration.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:19:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  but many of them will vote for him (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mightymouse, dinotrac, Laconic Lib

            because they understand what he is trying to do.

            Data on that from previous elections (Dems getting the benefit of the doubt, like Rs did on nat security) is pretty solid.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:22:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  the clearer he is on what he's trying to do (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Vicky, dinotrac

              the better

              An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

              by mightymouse on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:06:00 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Do they? (0+ / 0-)

              I don't know that he's made the case that they are important to him, and it's easy to make the case that they haven't been.

              It will be interesting to see, at the very least.

              LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

              by dinotrac on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:24:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  here's where you don't speak for everyone (0+ / 0-)

                methinks ;-)

                neither good nor bad, just the data

                This article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are rewarded when unemployment is low and punished when it is high. Using county-level data on unemployment and election returns for 175 midterm gubernatorial elections and 4 presidential elections from 1994 to 2010, the analysis finds that unemployment and the Democratic vote for president and governor move together. Other things being equal, higher unemployment increases the vote shares of Democratic candidates. The effect is greatest when Republicans are the incumbent party, but Democrats benefit from unemployment even when they are in control. The explanation for these findings is that unemployment is a partisan issue for voters, not a valence issue, and that the Democratic Party “owns” unemployment. When unemployment is high or rising, Democratic candidates can successfully convince voters that they are the party best able to solve the problem.
                http://themonkeycage.org/...

                "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:27:33 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Interesting point but note (0+ / 0-)

                  the time frame of the elections covered: 1994-2010.

                  I seem to recall a few people making the point that the current administration walked into a uniquely bad economy, which is part of the reason things don't look better now.

                  Will this depression/recession (depending on whether you were hit by it or just read about it) that has cut so deeply and affected so many follow the norm of the milder recessions in those years?

                  LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                  by dinotrac on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:42:02 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  that's where polling helps inform us (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Laconic Lib

                    instead of assuming we know. And we don't have a final on that, I am just calling into question your assumptions.

                    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                    by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:51:30 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What do I assume? That unemployed people (0+ / 0-)

                      have reason to be unhappy?

                      You don't have to take my word for it, but I'll bet you find that most unemployed people would be much happier if they were working and able to take care of their families.

                      Will that translate into votes for Romney?

                      I would *ASSUME* that depends on whether or not they believe the current administration has made jobs a priority in the past and will make jobs a priority in the future, plus trust that the administration has the competence/policies to do something about the problem.

                      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                      by dinotrac on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:25:25 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Read the reports on an avalanche of Romney Ads (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, gosoxataboy

        Team Romney's apparently combining positive press from the debate with an avalanche of ads in swing-states.

        The ads might be doing it? THey're all in. Romney campaign, plus the superpacs.

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

        •  A few people here said they are getting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stagemom

          carpet bombed by Romney ads in Florida big time...like twice a many after the debate.  

          Mitt won primaries using carpet bombing ads , the pundits all said. He is probably trying that again.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:34:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You've hit the nail on the head (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoogleBonhoeffer

        with "Team Citizens United really needs to convince all of their 2008 turnouts to not stay home" While Mr. Greg's chart is interesting and heartening, this one, also from Rand... not so much.

        Intent to vote

        There is nothing more exciting than the truth. - Richard P. Feynman

        by pastol on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:25:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  this will not be 08 (0+ / 0-)

        One observation is that in 08 the president carried Independents by 8 points. This time around the President is behind in every poll with Independents by 8, 10, 12 percent.

        Second observation, the President now polls behind Romney in every poll on the question of who would handle the economy better.

        Third and I will stop, in the RCP average the Presidents polling average is 46%, that is probably not where a Sitting President wants to be

        •  he would like to be at 64% :) (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think being at 46% is a big deal per se. I think it was Steve Singiser who commented the other day that the notion that undecideds break to the challenger is "so 2004." But of course Obama wants to reestablish a clear lead.

          Anyone who decided in the last 10 days that Romney would do a better job of handling the economy still has plenty of time to reconsider.

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:12:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  don't follow polls (0+ / 0-)

      especially polls that are not showing your guy winning.

    •  way to go eeff! (7+ / 0-)

      this will be close, though i still expect an Obama win.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:39:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That is what I am planning to do. (12+ / 0-)

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:43:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tomorrow I am going to OFA office to make calls (7+ / 0-)

      but today, making them today for health reasons...but tomorrow I should be over this flare up of pain.

      But if anyone wants to make calls to a battleground state and do it from home, go to BarackObama.com and Click on Make Calls under Volunteer and you can select the state and decide how many calls you want to make and when.

      Calling hours are there too of when you call.

      As some people were saying they wanted to make calls but live in solid red or blue state, the cool thing with OFA is you can make calls to other states and not live your house to do it.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:49:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is there a script? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes, eeff

        I've been to the Dashboard, but I'm not a cold call type person and I've never been a good "salesman."  There are some GOTV door knocking efforts going on in my county this weekend, but I'm more the type that is better sitting in an office doing data entry, coordinating schedules and stuff like that.  I wouldn't be good at door knocking in my own neighborhood, since I'm on 2 HOA boards and half the people love me and the other half hate me :)  

        I'm thinking of taking a couple of vacation days for early voting and election day and volunteering to drive people to the polls, who might have trouble with transportation, if that's an option here.  Have to call the local OFA office and find out.  

        "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

        by Ricochet67 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:31:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm like you (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, wintergreen8694, eeff

          not into calling people (though you will be calling other Democrats who are assumably registered to vote), but there's always tons of other stuff to do at the OFA offices.
          One comment I read said that they spend every Saturday at the local OFA office and do nothing but data entry.
          Every little bit helps!

          “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

          by skohayes on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:34:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks very much (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell, skohayes, eeff

            I think I'll head over there and see if there is something I can do - if I can free up a regular OFA person they can do something more productive for GOTV :)

            "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

            by Ricochet67 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:36:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  To: Ricoshet67 & others, (0+ / 0-)

          Yes, Virginia, there are sample scripts, as well as addresses, phone numbers, and protocol for volunteers. It's never too late.  Have fun!

    •  eeff, I'm thinking of knocking on doors or (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, eeff

      making phone calls, but I'd like to know from you whether you think doing so actually changes any minds, either about voting itself or for whom to cast a ballot.

      I've already helped a few working moms cast early/absentee ballots because I know how hard it is to pick up kids from daycare and then go vote. I'd do what you're planning to do, too, if I thought it made a difference. I know that no phone call or door knocker would change my mind.

      I'm not trying to discourage you, I'm just trying to make a decision on this. Maybe knocking on doors here would be beneficial as we do have some local races that voters may not be as innformed about as (I think) almost everyone is about the presidential race. What to do? What to do?

      Eliminate tax breaks that stimulate the offshoring of jobs.

      by RJDixon74135 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:30:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Most of the people being contacted now (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RJDixon74135, eeff

        You are simply reminding them the importance of voting for the President. I guess all OFA offices are on different schedules with different lists and granted I am in a small county..but we are to the point where we are contacting almost all Democrats and those who indicated support this time or last time for the President.  

        In fact, back in August, our canvassers were told they would not be knocking on Republican doors..the lists were almost all Democrats and new voters registered as Democrats.  Now keep in mind, we have few Independents in PA because of the closed primary system. Most register with a party, even the Green or Libertarian for some..to get a ballot on primary day.

        But it is not like you are knocking on the doors of Teabaggers or die hard Mitt supporters at this point.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:51:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  it definitely helps with GOTV (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse, eeff

        No ad, no email, no mailer, no robocall, nothing substitutes for someone at the door.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:17:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think It helps (0+ / 0-)

        It lets the people know Obama Biden is working hard to get re-elected.

        I persoally just don't want to be able to feel I didn't do as much as I possible could.
        Right now I only do about an hour of Data entry a day.
        so I'll step it up & collect some.

  •  Next town hall debate when Obama needs (14+ / 0-)

    to make clear on what he stands for and what he wants to do and how this differs from what Romney wants to do.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:36:13 AM PDT

    •  Obama is going to close the deal (15+ / 0-)

      OFA is a machine unprecedented in political history.

      •  agreed I think people (9+ / 0-)

        utterly underesstimate this aspect to Obama and I hope in 2016 OBama gives the keys to the next guy/gal

        •  Biden/Patrick 2016 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          duhban, Pinto Pony

          There are no 2 politicians closer to the President than Joe Biden and Deval Patrick.

          That's the plan.

          •  could be, I'd vote for him (4+ / 0-)

            though I'd have some reservations about Biden's age, there's a lot of people I think by 2016 so it will be an interesting contest

            •  Biden's age not a concern of mine (6+ / 0-)

              I mean he handed boy wonder his ass, right?  I just can't envision a Republican on the bench right now who can step up and convince Americans he is more qualified to lead America.

              Like imagine Rubio vs. Biden.

              Biden is a force and I suspect they've feared him all along and they went to great lengths to mock him and brand him a gaffe machine.  Biden doesn't make any more mistakes than the next guy and far fewer than one of their own like Bush or Romney.  

              I think we witnessed in the VP debate just why they've feared Joe Biden.  He commands respect from the military and despite 3 plus decades in Washington, there is no dirt on him.  He never sold out to lobbyists and owes nobody a single favor.  He is completely independent of the big businesses and big banks that have hijacked the Government of the people and rule the middle and working classes to the best of their advantage.

              Obama didn't pick him for nothing.

              •  GB, I think you make a solid point as up to last (5+ / 0-)

                night, I also had the age concern as I do for all politicans but after seeing him whip Ryan clearly and confidently and with energy and passion, I changed my mind.

                Biden is smarter and knows more about foreign and domestic policy then most of the people half his age in the entire country.

                Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

                by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:57:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  And his energy level is healthy (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  duhban

                  He's a vibrant older adult.  Like I said, more Sean Connery than Bob Dole.

                  Biden is relevant, cool and has grown immensely popular in the past 4 years because of his inclusion in Obama's circle.  He has been thrust into the spotlight when he had to beg to be on TV as a Senator.  I think he's loving this and hitting his stride.  There is a motivation in him to become President as he has run as recently as 2008.  His time as VP has only strengthened his mission I believe.

              •  the thing is though (0+ / 0-)

                in 2016 he'd be 73 so age would be a concern, maybe not for you and maybe not for me but definitely the electorate overall.

                Remember everything about McCain on this issue? And yes I know not inherently the best example but Biden would be the oldest president elected ever and by 4 years which would be a tought sell perhaps for the electorate.

                Not to mention he very well might not want to run anyways but then again who knows what will happen.

          •  Biden couldn't get nominated in 2008, (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            winnie71, Bush Bites, duhban

            in fact, he was one of the early dropouts. What makes you think Democrats would nominate him when he's 73 years old?
            I love Joe Biden, I supported him in 2008 when he entered the race, but most Democrats didn't.

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:38:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Personally, I think Biden and Clinton generation's (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skohayes, One Opinion, EcosseNJ, duhban

              Time has passed.  We need to look toward younger faces in the party.  Just my opinion, of course, and no lack of respect to my age cohort.

              I can’t decide who’s cuter – the dead guy with the arrows in his chest, or the guy in the ditch with the seeping wound. -- Game of Thrones (Heard on Set)

              by prodigal on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:45:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Biden's circle was small (5+ / 0-)

              Biden's circle was small in the 2008 primaries.  And I remember during the primary debates he was not given enough face time but whenever he had the microphone he knocked it out of the park.  There was one debate there where he sounded the most Presidential and actually won the debate with the few answers he was allowed to give.  

              The media has marginalized Biden and I think we're finding out why.  He's a force and he's independent of special interest groups and lobbyists.  He's far more visible now as VP than he was as Senator from the teensy state of Delaware.  

              Now he's known for,

              A noun a verb and 911

              His whooping of Sarah Palin

              GM is alive and Bin Laden is dead.

              His DNC convention speech.

              His whooping of Ryan.

              The electorate is getting a different, rock-star version of Joe Biden.  His close relationship with Obama is going to play well with Democrats in the primaries.  

              •  Joe Biden could have won the nomination in 1988 (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GoogleBonhoeffer, duhban

                In 1988, Joe decided to run for President. He had the goods. What happened ?  Joe made a little mistake. In a speech he used the words of an author and forgot to mention the name of that author. It was a MINOR error. He had used the same citation a few times before and had always mentioned the source. But because he forgot it one time, the media CRUSHED him. They mentioned that mistake over and over and over again. They attacked Biden relentlessly, until he had to give up and leave the primary race.

                That was unfortunate, because he would have been a much stronger candidate than Michael Dukakis.

                Who was the republican nominee that year ?  George H. W. Bush.

          •  Warren/Clinton or Clinton/Warren for me (0+ / 0-)

            I like Biden but not that much.

  •  Post Rove world (15+ / 0-)

    President Obama's infrastructure is bigger now than 4 years ago - the phone lists, email lists, choreographed texting, targeted precincts, canvassing.  

    I think Rove and Citizens United are behind alot of these bad polls recently timed to make the debate appear like more of a catalyst than it was.

    Rove can change the perception of the race (and keep the donations flowing) but that won't undue 4 years of community organizing on top of an extraordinary 2008 campaign machine.

    The reality of this election is on the ground.  And I believe the Republican media machine (which includes Gallup, Raz, SurveyUSA and all the other bad polls) bends reality to keep Mitt competitive and McCain Republicans in the fold.

    Mitt Romney lost to McCain.  

    It's starting to feel like bizarro world here.

    That's how you know someone's lying.

  •  Obama wouldnt have scheduled to be TDS on thursday (14+ / 0-)

    if he isnt planning to go hard on Romney. Last week, by winning the debate, Romney and the pundits who bashed Obama for being passive, gave Obama the perfect opportinuty to fight back w/o the fear of being called 'Angry Black man'.

    I think Obama plans to fight Romney forcefully on tuesday thats why they scheduled that appearance on the Daily Show 48 hours later.

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:37:00 AM PDT

    •  TDS Telecom, Totally Dissolved Solids, Travel (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OLinda, duhban, tb mare, mightymouse

      Document Systems, TDS e-pay, TDS Guns, Tire Distribution Systems Nashville?

      Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

      by ratcityreprobate on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:45:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's not about going hard on Romney (13+ / 0-)

      It's about showing passion, yes calling out Romney's misstatements, but forcefully defending his own record and being passionate about what it means to the American people.

      Right now what's happened is Romney has gone up but Obama hasn't really gone down. His favorables are still high. If he "goes hard" on Romney, those dial numbers may drop. People will be looking for an excuse to say he's "mean."

      He needs to show passion but when Romney lies, don't attack, just say forcefully,  "What Mr. Romney just said is completely untrue. Here's why..." and address the audience.

      It's all about standing up for the American people (some of whom may lose health insurance if Romney repeals Obamacare, etc.) and getting them on his side.

      I think he almost needs a "Hillary before the New Hampshire primary" moment, you know, "I just don't want us to go backward..." with some emotion. Not downcast, like the first debate, but fighting with passion and emotion. That's the kind of thing that can get women on his side and really turn the tide.

      I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

      by rennert on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:22:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  agree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pengiep, tb mare, mightymouse, Shippo1776

        people will fight for him if they think he is fighting for them.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:23:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The good news (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, wintergreen8694

        is the next debate is the town hall debate.
        Remember how Romney connects with middle class people.
        Think back on the town hall debate with McCain- Obama looked smooth and calm, while McCain stalked around in the background looking angry and uncomfortable.
        Obama relates to people very easily. Media won't concentrate on what was said, but on style (if the last two debates are any indicator). Obama wins.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:50:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not a win, but a choice (0+ / 0-)

          There is a lot to what you say.  And R may something something stupid to someone middle class because that is his nature.  But if the 1st debate taught us anything, it is that speaking in plausible sounding generalities that consist of tissue of lies that require time to unpack is his stock in trade.  How many times in pre powerpoint days did he yammer on in meetings about how management and he could rape the company for fun and profit?

          Fortunately, the President just needs to make the case for himself.  

        •  I expect a pretty even debate. I hope slight win. (0+ / 0-)

          The town hall forces Romney to interact with ordinary people but it still is a controlled environment. I am sure he has been practicing his voice and his "warmth" at nauseam. And he will be careful as hell to not make jokes ad lib because his handlers will have forbidden him to; they know that's when he makes gaffes. I'm also sure he will use stories about real people, stories that are aimed at making people believe he "cares".

          As for President Obama, we've all read so much about when people meet him they're awe-struck by how he is so very down-to-earth, very personable , and the exact same person in private as he is in public. Those personal encounters are the type of interactions where President Obama is much much better than Romney. HOWEVER the town-hall format is a DIFFERENT animal. Again, it's a much more controlled environment. So the advantage of the President is not so big I think, for all the reasons I've stated in the previous paragraph. Oh, I'm sure President Obama will be at his best, a mix of seriousness, warmth and assertiveness. No question in my mind he will "perform" better than in the first debate.

          In short, a town-hall "debate" is not "that" different from a traditional debate. It's still two candidates responding to questions and trying to use those questions to explain their policies and attack the opponent. So, I'm sorry and I don't want to be a debbie downer, but saying that President Obama will have a definitive win against Romney is again raising the expectations sky high for the president and setting the stage for another round of critics.

          Oh I do wish that President Obama succeeds in scoring big points against Romney. He and his team are surely working on finding a tactic to counter the BS, and the inconsistencies. But I don't expect a knock-out; Romney is too good at lying with aplomb. What I expect is for President Obama to come out with more energy, to attack Romney on some specifics, and score some points. And it will be OK.

          President Obama has to hold his own on "style", and we all know that he will win on TRUTH and FACTS. It will then be the task of all supporters to win the spin war...  I don't want the media to succeed in making the story about "President Obama did very well this time but didn't do enough" "He didn't crush Romney, it's a draw, so it means defeat" and on and on...  

      •  Rennert hits nail on head, totally and absolutely (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tb mare, mightymouse, EcosseNJ, rennert

        agree with your assessment.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:11:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Absolutely! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse

        I think the tone needs to be energized pride.  The goal needs to be to make the choice clear--not to "win."  God--I bet each one of us can give a two minute speech on how the President's policies saved the economy (and how R's would have killed it).  Bet the President can, too.

      •  I would say 'tout' instead of 'defend' record (0+ / 0-)
  •  Mr Obama....your job...should you choose to accept (12+ / 0-)

    it.....is to put this shape-shifter away.

  •  The RAND continuous poll is finally picking up (14+ / 0-)

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

    which is really good news, as the trend lines tell you so much more the trends in fresh samples.

    The show that minds are changing back.

    •  why I love Febble (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HudsonValleyMark, wishingwell, Arnie

      see response to first comment ;-)

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:42:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  State polls tend to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wvmama

      lag the national, so fight on!

      The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

      Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

      by TheGreatLeapForward on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:56:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  eh, they tell you different (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Febble

      My reservation about the RAND poll is that its participants, at this point, aren't really like the electorate at large. There aren't many of us who write down once a week how likely we are to vote and how likely we are to vote for each candidate -- not that that would be hard for us. So I don't expect RAND dynamics to match "real" dynamics.

      That said, I agree that this plot portrays minds changing back. Also, I'll repeat a comment from last night: I'm scratching my head a bit over the one-day decline in Obama supporters' "intention to vote" a few days ago. It's hard to interpret that, especially with a 7-day rolling average (and bearing in mind that "Obama supporters" aren't a fixed group). But "intention to vote" is something that the campaign can work on, and as it does, the topline is likely to improve, not only in RAND, but in real life.

      (As you know, RAND has an interesting take on likely voter screens: they let voters say exactly how likely they are to vote, and weight their responses accordingly.)

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:56:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I really think LV will be under the microscope (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HudsonValleyMark, tb mare

        as you know, it isn't always better.

        So will polls that don't include cellphones.

        None of it matters if the polls are right (they usually are), but still...

        I don't like using RAND as a predictor, but, like the betting markets, I use it to watch trends.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:00:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the best thing about RAND is that it doesn't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HudsonValleyMark

          disqualify "unlikely" voters entirely, so their model gives us a solid average of the various turnout scenarios.

          Of course, as Mark says, the nature of the RAND poll suggests that the respondents are probably over-informed about what's happening compared to the actual electorate, but this could also suggest that their poll had more actual debate watchers and, thus, provides a better picture of the debate's actual effect.

      •  for readers who are unaware (0+ / 0-)

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:04:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HudsonValleyMark

        but I do like to see evidence changing minds, and of what they change in response to.

        •  yup (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Febble

          I knew I wasn't saying anything you didn't already know -- just hedging for the possible benefit of lurkers. Or maybe just being ornery. :)

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:53:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, I do like repeated-measures designs (0+ / 0-)

            I have to say.

            Even if the repeated-measuring alters what is measured.  In this case, in a good way, I think (if only everyone had an incentive to pay attention....)

            •  it wd be cool if deliberative polling caught on (0+ / 0-)

              After all, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Mitt Romney can't be trusted: a modicum of fact-checking or even verbatim quotation would suffice. Most voters don't do fact-checking. But it's not too hard to imagine a deliberative polling design in which at least some of them would pay attention. And I suspect that if more people really paid attention to Romney, a bunch of them -- not just the Democrats -- would be pretty annoyed.

              I want to see the headline: "Citizen Panelists: Romney 'Lies Like a Synthetic Bearskin Rug.'" OK, that's a real stretch. But back in 1993, when a Citizens Jury reviewed various health care proposals, the headline could have been: "Citizen Panelists: GOP Health Care Proposals 'Band-Aid on a Gaping Wound.'"

              Election protection: there's an app for that!
              Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

              by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:09:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Bill Clinton will be in Ohio with Springsteen (17+ / 0-)

    next Thursday when he campaigns on behalf of Obama.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:40:30 AM PDT

  •  I have a funny feeling about this. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duhban, mightymouse

    Obama's numbers among white voters have been horrible and that has been the main reason he is behind in recent polls.

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:41:47 AM PDT

    •  The reason Obama is "behind in recent polls" (5+ / 0-)

      Is because of the samples taken for these polls not the color of their skin.

      I highly doubt Romney's debate triggered some kind of dormant racism gene in Obama's 2008 voters.

      The incumbent President is ADDING to his 2008 foundation with the best organization in the history of Presidential campaigns.

      Romney is scrambling to keep up with McCain.

    •  Kerry's numbers among white voters were horrible (6+ / 0-)

      If you're thinking about racism -- I think racial resentment probably is an additional drag on Obama, but I don't think it's the main story line.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:03:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wow Mark, I had forgotten that fact, Kerry did (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse

        awful with white voters. !!  

        That is such an interesting piece of data that I forgot all about and I think many others did too.

        Thanks for reminding us of this.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:16:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Polls will vary (18+ / 0-)

      And they're not necessarily an indicator of what will happen. We've seen this before. Nobody believed that Obama would win Florida in 2008. When I posted my thoughts about that on here before that election people were laughing at me. Many were SO sure that McCain would win the state.

      The Republicans were riding a huge bounce after McCain's dramatic announcement about Sarah Palin as his VP. The GOP base was energized everywhere because of her and her carefully scripted speeches.  However, it didn't last because once the press began to challenge her with questions that forced her to go off script people realized that she's an idiot. Even then, things didn't fall completely apart for McCain.  Florida has long been a red state and back then the polls were all showing McCain in the lead until just before the election.  We won Florida with only 51% of the vote, but the point is that we won.

      I'm thinking that this will be deja vu. Mittens is riding on a bounce from a strong performance in a debate that most people expected him to lose. It made him look very good, and it made Obama look bad---even though pretty much everything Romney said was a lie. Someone once said that if you keep telling the same lies often enough and loud enough they eventually become truth---that is the essence of the Romney campaign, and the fact that Obama kinda stood back and let him rant on with his lies obviously had a huge impact on low information voters after the debate. I don't think that Obama went into that debate prepared for that type of aggression. I think it caught him completely off guard, and he was likely thinking that if he really went after Romney and beat him down it would come off as arrogant and mean (look at what they're saying about Biden, LOL). But Obama is a smart dude, and I'm sure he won't give Mittens that opportunity next time.

      Romney is an impetuous guy. He's all about image (note the starched hair and the sharp suits) but he's got nothing. He's the type who will tell the most egregious lies to be popular, and the lies change according to whatever he thinks the crowd that's currently in the room wants to hear. He's shown his hand and the way he intends to play the game. We all know he's got nothing--- No general plan, no specifics, and no alternatives to the things he's criticizing. Expect Obama to hold Romney's feet to the fire this time.

      •  Great comment! (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Arnie, tb mare, BeninSC, Wary, FindingMyVoice

        I think the Obama campaign got the message loud and clear from us after the last debate, and he plans to be more aggressive (underscored by the rising enthusiasm after the VP debate) at the next debate.
        Plus, Obama will be in his element speaking directly to people at the town hall debate. Romney doesn't do so well with one on ones.

        Corporations are people, my friend!
        I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:01:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I wish more voters could see he is so fake, not (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Shippo1776, Wary, FindingMyVoice

        genuine at all and changes his personality and what he believes depending on who he is talking to. He lacks basic convictions. He is indeed an Empty Suit.

        He is worse than Bush in terms of this Empty suit thing

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:21:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A little perspective (11+ / 0-)

    For 11 days in September of 08 McCain led or was tied in national polls with Obama.  I imagine those 11 days caused comparable hand wringing to the past 9 days.

                              O      Mc
    9/17/2008    45.7    45.7
    9/16/2008    45.0    46.3
    9/15/2008    44.7    46.3
    9/14/2008    45.3    47.4
    9/13/2008    45.0    47.4
    9/12/2008    45.1    47.4
    9/11/2008    45.2    47.7
    9/10/2008    45.2    47.4
    9/09/2008    45.6    48.0
    9/08/2008    45.4    48.3
    9/07/2008    45.7    46.7

    Keep it together, keep the faith - this is all going to turn around

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:44:16 AM PDT

  •  Most - really - (6+ / 0-)

    of the Israeli people are not insane.  They are traumatized by a lot of crap that is hard to explain in less than ten volumes.  But really - I've lived there, I'm a dual citizen - ultimately they will choose sanity.  

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:47:14 AM PDT

    •  that's why I am not surprised (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KibbutzAmiad, wishingwell, skohayes

      but there are always hawks, everywhere.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:51:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That was a good article and encouraging, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KibbutzAmiad

      however I was curious about the authors' (two profs.) apparent knowledge of details and sharing of security information between the US and Israel.  I would expect that to be highly classified.  As I read the article I wondered if they were just speculating or if they were blabbing about something they shouldn't have been.

      Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

      by ratcityreprobate on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:58:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is true. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KibbutzAmiad, pademocrat

      My son is also a dual citizen, lived there 5 years; served in the IDF. He was and is a Kadima supporter. He says many years ago, Netanyahu had the choice to be a statesman or a politician, and he chose the latter.

      Fox News is to the truth as a flaming bag of dog shit is to a packed lunch. --MinistryOfTruth

      by snazzzybird on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:07:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am a Meretz supporter (socialist) (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        snazzzybird, IM, Vicky

        and I think Netanyahu may well be a sociopath.  I know that Leah Rabin blamed him, in part, for her husband's death.  Bibi has brother issues, he's not as smart as people give him credit for, I think.  

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:20:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If Israeli politics is like the U.S. (0+ / 0-)

      public preferences, especially on questions of waging war, don't always carry the day.  Or at the very least, politicians wanting to attack another country will twist information, turn up the volume on propaganda, even engage in lying, to change public opinion to finally approve military action

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:37:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I found the Cohen article in the Times , listed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OLinda

    above, very interesting. I was not aware of these 5 myths about polling.

    One of them is that the first debate dramatically changed the race..ie game changer..she says that is a myth...that is the part I found most interesting.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:54:32 AM PDT

  •  May anyone expand on early voting/2008 turnout? (3+ / 0-)

    Greg says, "Keep on being skeptical of likely voter screens that assume otherwise.".

    On what basis, and also what is he getting at? I ask as everyone else seems to say a 2008 turnout is impossible, especially conservatives commentators are adamant and convicted about that (although they oddly think this election will be like 1980, 2004 or 2010).

    I think if it's 2008, Obama will EXCEED the polls.  I just don't think the Youth, Latinos will break to Romney in enough numbers.

    IT'll depend on undecided suburbans or weak leaning ones in WI, OH, VA switching to Romney.

    Is the 2008 coalition expected to hold in both composition, and in numbers?

    •  here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HudsonValleyMark, wishingwell

      http://tinyurl.com/...

      read the article (copy protected, can't post it).

      My reasoning:

      1. LV's the further away you get from the election are more volatile. Partisan react to things like debates more than RVs.

      2. LVs based on enthusiasm and previous voting record (among other things) may undercount young and non white voters.

      3. Some polls have a 1-2 point difference, some still have ≥ 5. They both can't be correct.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:15:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  composition versus numbers is huge (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      Some folks were sure that Barrett would win the Wisconsin recall because the turnout was so high. But it was high (pretty much) all around the state, blue and red. It's interesting to speculate about what the turnout will be (and how to measure it!), but it isn't necessarily crucial.

      When it comes to LV models, it is hard to generalize because they work in different ways. Because Pew is so darn transparent about data and methods, we can play with different turnout assumptions for pre-election polls and see how they would affect the projections. I tinkered a bit with their final pre-election 2004 poll several years ago, and I can say from memory that most of the RV/LV gap came from people who clearly scored near the bottom in their LV scale. Tweaking the turnout estimate within a plausible range would have made some difference, but not much. I could be more specific, but not from memory!

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:50:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If the turnout is like 2008, we win without doubt. (0+ / 0-)

      However, if it's like 2010 or even 2004, then we could lose.  This election has always been about turnout.

  •  Thanks Greg (6+ / 0-)

    I know it's been great fun for the pundits to hype up the Romney kicked ass in the debate story - they get lots of clicks and who doesn't just love beat to beat someone when they are down? If it were me writing columns that were being shared on APR & like places, today I would be thinking "holy shit, what have I done?" and start frantically posting the truth about real issues that matter. Why the hell was I lifting up a liar who might end up being my president too? But that's just me.

  •  I find this to be encouraging news... (7+ / 0-)

    amidst all the discouraging news coming from all of these polls...and such..

    Early voting -- both mail and in-person -- is on pace to exceed 2008 levels, when about 30 percent of all votes nationally were cast prior to Election Day. The 2008 levels may be exceeded even further in states such as Iowa and Ohio, where early voting has been brisk. As a corollary, with no collapse in early voting, there is no indication so far that overall turnout, both early and Election Day, will be substantially lower than 2008.
    High turnout benefits Democrats and there are some good signs according to this article.  I think the media may be shocked at the high turnout since they insist we Democrats have low enthusiasm and keep chattering on about how we may not show up to vote. I think we will prove the naysayers and pundits wrong.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:58:54 AM PDT

    •  My enthusiasm has not been measured at all (0+ / 0-)

      And I know I'm not alone.  Once again the Republican media machine is trying to bend reality but this enthusiasm gap bullshit hits too close to home.  We all know they're wrong about it we just have to be vocal with one another and remind each other that we do feel the same way.  

      OFA 2008 was merely a blueprint for the current version.  I am excited about 2012!  We should not let them rob us of the pleasure we can experience along the way as we kick Romney's ass.

    •  There was high turnout in 2004 as well. (0+ / 0-)

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:44:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Was that because in 2004, Rove had a better and (0+ / 0-)

        more effective GOTV operation?  As I recall Bush turned out the religious right in droves and in OH because gay marriage was on the ballot? Didn't the Bush team get the religious right out in busloads and all fired up via hate for the gays ?  

        We now have a much superior GOTV because of OFA. We have a lot more local offices open for OFA than MItt by a long mile.

        But as I recall,  turnout high in 2004 over social issues as remember exit polls showing voters priorities being Valuies ...and we heard about Values Voters since then ....on and on because Bush fired up the Fundies..right ?

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:34:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  well it depends on who turns out in high (0+ / 0-)

      numbers on election day.

      We absolutely need high turn out form our base and newly registered youth and minorities in record numbers like in 2008.

      In regard to early voting...it has always been like a 3 to 1 advantage in favor of democrat voters.  That's why they attempted to stop early voting.  

  •  you have to account (3+ / 0-)

    as well for people who appreciate that whatever this stuff is, it isn't debate.

    and I wait for them to interrupt my drinking from this broken cup

    by le sequoit on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:59:28 AM PDT

  •  Next debate is a Town Hall and that is a (14+ / 0-)

    whole different animal.  Each candidate will have to answer the audience member's question thus they are less likely to go after each other directly since that will look to the audience that the candidate is being dismissive to the audience member.

    Instead Obama in his two minute case to the audience member he needs to state where he wants to take the country and how that differs from Romney.

    For example, on an immigration question Obama can say that he wants to do so and so on immigration.  Then he can say that Governor Romney has said that he would VETO the DREAM act and thinks that Arizona immigration policy is a model for the nation.  Obama can say that he would sign the DREAM act today and he took Arizona to the Supreme Court.

    Obama should NEVER say "Romney and I agree".  Instead he needs to say specifically how he differs from Romney.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:59:39 AM PDT

  •  Well we know that Obama is serious (7+ / 0-)

    about preparing for the debate this time.  He will be held up in Virginia starting today until the debate on Tuesday.

    He has no scheduled campaign events until after the debate which is good.  Obama needs to really focus.

    Romney on the other hand has two events in Ohio today.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:03:49 AM PDT

  •  possibly this was good?! (9+ / 0-)

    Maybe it was a good thing Romney "won" the first debate - by lying his f*** sorry a* off.

    Because it gives permission to the President to come out swinging and deliver a knock out punch Tuesday.

    ALL he has to do is recite Romney's own words back to him, but he can also do more; he can point out how Romney's actions contradict his words.

    Tough on China? Yeah, right, you swallowed their lies about why the needed barbed wire and guard towers to maintain slave labor. AND these were your business partners!

    Also, didn't Ryan set Romney up as the ultimate patsy?

    So Governor Romney, you only stated what was true about Libya (as Ryan contended)? Just quote back Romney's statement about Obama post-assassination and point out it was a lie.

    So you say you'd be a better ally to the rebels in Syria? But you criticize Obama for supporting the uprising in Tahrir Square over dictator Mubarak? You can't have it both ways.

    Hey Governor Romney, you can't have everything BOTH WAYS. The presidency will NEVER be yours. Because you're a fake, a phony, a liar and, most of all, a bully.

  •  nate I think should exercise care (6+ / 0-)

    given that he's putting alot on pollsters that either slant R or are new and so far have been very kind to Mitt.

    It's so awesome to hear about participation levels not only because everyone should vote (and I think it favors Obama) but because I'm tired of being shown up on this by Europe. Election day should be a federal holiday and all states should have early voting the last 2 weeks minimum.

    •  Nate has said there is a lot of polling noise and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      duhban

      he has recently stated he is not sure what is happening and what is causing it to happen .the debate or something else.  There are things he said he is unsure of at this point.  

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:40:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  true (0+ / 0-)

        but the most annoying thing to me is that nate has always projected an air of confidence bordering on arrogance at times like this. I started reading him in 2008 and remember him defending his ranking of Ras up and down. In the end he was wrong but since Ras was only 1 pollester out of many it didn't really affect the model and really was a tribute to the robustness of the model. However now, well the sheer volume of new pollsters could be a severe test of the robustness of the model

  •  John Sides (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    satrap, pademocrat, tb mare

    People who choose to watch political conflict can deal with it.

    I don't know. I watch, but it's stressful and nerve-wracking.

    Just Win, Baby. -- Al Rodgers, Feb. 24, 2012

    by OLinda on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:08:54 AM PDT

    •  The thing we can't forget in this is that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      exterris, tb mare

      President O- who we love so dearly- really has only himself to blame for the debate deal.  He was simply poorly postured and prepared.

      I'm nervous- and excited- but most of us have done what we can to support the man.

      From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

      by satrap on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:17:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  specifically talking about Biden's combativeness (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      crystalboy, skohayes, wishingwell

      Sides is right, it was not off putting.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:21:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ryan could have stood up on the table (0+ / 0-)

        and emptied his rather massive bladder and R's would have called it a win. Even if Obama toasts Romney we shouldn't be surprised or dispirited if it's called a draw. There is a huge attempt to control the narrative right now. We just need to suck it up and keep going.

        I like to believe in love as democracy - Salman Rushdie

        by crystalboy on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:08:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  People need to get fired up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    but in the end, we Democrats all just have two votes :)

    From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

    by satrap on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:10:01 AM PDT

    •  We can make calls from the OFA site from home (0+ / 0-)

      to battleground states and at least remind Democrats to show up and vote twice..LOL...turnout is key...

      Or we can do other things like offer rides to voters..whatever is needed..to get people to show up and vote.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:43:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  voting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    My county starts mailing ballots next week. :)

    Just Win, Baby. -- Al Rodgers, Feb. 24, 2012

    by OLinda on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:16:39 AM PDT

  •  Drafting time over (4+ / 0-)

    In NASCAR, one way to save gas is to hang behind the leader in the reduced wind resistance slipstream. Post-debate, Romney faces the full headwind of scrutiny and will have to go tong and hammer on Obama. The downside, of course, is that the vulture capitalist plans for America that include selling off of government assets, voucherizing of public services, and outsourcing of production of public goods will get discussed. Russians were sold a similar line in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, only to realize that their country will go nowhere if it only produces oligarchs and no middle class. I have to say the GOP elite have a hard-to-justify belief that good crowd control will be available to them when the Romney/Ryan privatization project heads south and the public catches on to what's happening.  

  •  Biden Bump Brewing (11+ / 0-)

    Nice jump in Reuters/Ipsos yesterday (with both RVs and LVs) and a nice jump in RAND this morning.

  •  It is only one survey, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoogleBonhoeffer

    RAND survey shows nice bump for Obama today (first day of post-debate surveys are in)

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

    Nate uses this as a 538 data point, but RCP does not include it in the average.  It had shown approx 6 points Of movement towards Romney post-first debate, which is consistent with the general trend.

    -F

    Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

    by FredFred on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:30:35 AM PDT

  •  In other news........................yankees win. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    booo.....hisss.

    •  not rubbing it in (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skillet, moira977, mightymouse

      the DC politicos are all Nats/Orioles fans.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:46:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But so are some of us :-( (0+ / 0-)

        I may just have to shut off my computer until someone emails me some good news because last night and today SUCK!  Pulled up Kos today hoping for some good news, and I see the Nate Silver thing and this post.   Crawling back in bed now.

        •  go here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell

          https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

          or just consider what Scott Rasmussen said fri (link will not help after 9:30 am):

          Nearly all of the responses for this survey were taken before last night’s debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Romney’s running mate, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. Eighteen percent (18%) of Likely U.S. Voters rate the vice presidential debate as Very Important to their vote.

          Speaking of debates, Scott Rasmussen notes in his new weekly syndicated column that Polls Reflect Voter Reality, Not Pundit’s Preoccupations. The Political Class, he writes, believes the race for the White House was turned upside down by the president’s weak performance in last week’s debate, but “the reality is that a very close race shifted ever so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney. Either way, it remains too close to call.”

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:59:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for this Greg and Cohen's article says (0+ / 0-)

            the same thing, debunks the media myth that this racce was changed completely and the polls like they are because of one debate.  It is now being debunked which I find to be good news.

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Are you in VA, if you want to, but you can go to (0+ / 0-)

          check out BarackObama.com...volunteer..make calls from home within your state or any state of your choosing.

          It might help ease the depression and discouragement and the calling is good as it is not like we are callling teabaggers ..mostly all Democrats and supporters of Obama ..just tell them how important it is to vote..etc.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:53:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Here's waiving the bloody shirt for you. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm old enough to remember 1962 when the Giants lost a one-run game #7 to the Yankees.  We didn't get back to the series for 27 years and nursed that wound carefully and cherished our pain.  Some of us still want revenge--even after 2010.  The pitiful thing is that Yankee fans must regard such emotions as quaint at best and probably just sad.  Still, I want the Yankees back in SF for a WS.

      •  me too (0+ / 0-)

        Dodgers and Giants will always be NY teams ;-) so it'd be a win win whatever happens.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:59:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I am all in for Detroit because when your team (0+ / 0-)

      is Pittsburgh, you learn to root for other teams too...and since the Phillies folded before playoffs, rooting for Detroit...love those American Auto Works, Mitt...LOL

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:51:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding this: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    One Opinion
    For three years Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, seemed to be united in urging an early military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But last week that alliance collapsed, with Mr. Netanyahu accusing Mr. Barak of having conspired with the Obama administration, in talks behind his back.
    As a sometimes reader of Haaretz, I see that quite a few people in Israel oppose Netanyahoo's preemptive strike and are not so keen on suffering a retaliation from Iran.

    And, to be fair, it's not just fear that drives many of them who believe that operating the world's largest prison camp is a terrible thing. If it takes talks behind Netanyahoo's back to restore sanity in this matter, so be it.

    Eliminate tax breaks that stimulate the offshoring of jobs.

    by RJDixon74135 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:54:33 AM PDT

  •  This is a blatant attempt to steal nationally (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shippo1776

    My Dear DailyKos Fellow Readers:

    If, like the pollsters (most of whom this cycle are GOP paid hacks and others of whom still believe that only GOPers truly vote) and the punditocracy (they need biting edge elections for ratings and revenue) you would truly believe that a single debate performance changes an entire election dynamic, you would then need to believe:

    1) The huge numbers of early voters--most of whom have been quite obviously pro Obama, and these in the most essential states--have had their votes "lost in the clouds."

    2) That millions of senior citizens, knowing too well that would-be VEEP Paul Ryan has made his signature legislation to voucher-ize Medicare and Social Security--programs essential to their very survival, simply don't care anymore--"Here, Mr. Romney, we really liked your debate performance, so take from us our livelihood.  We know you need to scrap these programs first in order to fix them.  So what if we do need to beg entrance into emergency rooms for a few years, or even live in our streets in absence of our subsistence incomes--we liked your debate performance, so we're okay with all of that."

    3) That millions of women, so liking Mr. Romney's debate performance, have decided that, even if Roe v. Wade is no more, even if they can no longer have any type of vital precautionary procedure impinging upon their reproductive rights, for perhaps another generation, with a Right Wing radicalized Supreme Court, which already barely reflects America's progressive changes from thirty years earlier--well, "We're okay with that, Mr. Romney, we so adored your debate performance--you can tell us now and forever what to do with our bodies, really, truly you can."

    4) That millions of blue collar workers are perfectly okay with the elimination of their collective bargaining rights (the special election in Ohio in which two-thirds of Ohioans gave Governor John Kasich the worst drubbing at the polls in Ohio history because he proposed doing just that--that special election never happened.)--yes, Romney, we so loved your debate performance that it doesn't matter if you defecate upon us, outscource our jobs and take from us the last of our dignity--we're good with that, we so loved your debate performance."

    You might want to believe all of the above are true.  Surely you might also want to believe that the moon really is made of green cheese.

    Or, the entire punditorcacy and yes, sham GOP pollster narrative post that first debate performance, is intended to yield the perception so that, come election day, the massive voter supression and mis-calculating can be justified.  This will make the 2000 election theft, sealed in the end only by a partisan 5-4 GOP leaning Supreme Court seem like a primitive high school student election prank.

    My dear  fellow progressives, this is the worst GOP presidential candidate probably in history--truly loved by nobody save himself and his billionaire coterie.  If Obama were paralyzed entirely in that first debate, it is inconceivable that anything Romney said or did would make much of a difference.

    Debates have ever been washes--in the end, just so much media white-noise, and the only possible--just possible--game changer in  the whole of the television age was the JFK-Nixon exchange in 1960--which WAS EVER A RAZOR THIN RACE--which this race, really, not with these high stakes, ever was.

    In the end, you must accept it as I do--that the Koch brothers and their coterie--having invested billions--are simply buying it outright and for that they need a different narrative than the one they had going into that first debate.

    Know this--as the Truth of God--Ohio belongs to Obama/Biden this year and so do most of those so-called swing states--and Americans LOATHE the current GOP led Congress--why would the majority give them now complete control over their foreseeable future?

    Yes, they may massively steal this one, but this time it will not be met with the passive resistance from the other side as it was in 2000.  This would mean, for a clear majority of Americans, the end of the country as they have known it.  And from such tyranny, revolutions inevitably follow.

    •  This has a clear ring of truth (0+ / 0-)

      and I sure hope as hell you're right.  We say every election is a history changing cataclysmic event and somehow survive the Reagans and the Bushes and go on.  This time it feels like we at a perilous edge and we better get it right.

    •  "Know this--as the Truth of God" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mightymouse

      Thanks, but no.

      Whatever exactly one makes of the various polls, it is clear that a whole pile of people are planning to vote for Romney, no matter how crazy that seems to us. Telling ourselves that any and all evidence to that effect is part of a stealin' scheme is delusional, and not in a good way.

      That isn't to vouch for Gravis, nor to prophesy defeat, nor to say that election fraud is impossible, nor any of the other straw men that tend to get dragged in at about this point.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:39:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am with HVM on this (0+ / 0-)

      divided electorate, tribal voting.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:57:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lambros, consider doing a diary with this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      One Opinion

      as it will get more attention being a long comment.

      I tend to recommend this to people with longer comments. I probably need to start doing that myself more often.  But you can go into even more detail in a diary.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:01:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Are you thnking or predicting that if Obama loses (0+ / 0-)

      the election narrowly and it comes to one state ala Florida 2000 , that there will be protests ? OK I get that. But you think there will be massive protests if god forbid, he lose narrowly electorally but also lose popular vote ala Kerry 2004?

      Or say Romney loses narrowly? Do you think there will be widespread protests or just the usual teabauchery?

      The reason I ask is so many factors are at play. I see few people protesting if Mitt or Obama wins but not just because of one state. But I can see if there is any hint of foul play or shenanigans, then I can see protests.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:07:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  like watching your long term investments (0+ / 0-)

    on a daily basis, reading Nate Silver can make you a little jittery. We're all buy and hold investors with PBO, so maybe, at least through Tuesday, it might be time to watch the Travel Chanel?

    Re-elect Barack Obama and elect Elizabeth Warren "Mitt Romney...utterly devoid of charm and mildly offensive."

    by al23 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:00:28 AM PDT

  •  Heads up for Obama debate team- (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes

    Romney will say "malarkey" at the earliest opportunity. That really got under the Repub skin.

  •  Americans deserve the truth about Mitt (0+ / 0-)

    Forget about half of this great nation. Forget about the "poor." Forget about the uninsured. Forget about anyone that doesn't have enough assets to require a Swiss bank account. Because Mitt just doesn't care. Mitt Romney has no clue what it means to be an average American, the fight that it takes to sustain a good life for ordinary folks. He is a corporate robot, a humanoid without principles and without any devotion to honesty, integrity, or decency. Romney's entire career, both in the private-sector and politically, has centered around destruction and personal opportunism. Where he thinks he can make millions or score political points, he acts. This election campaign has exposed Mitt for the soulless corporate raider he is, at his core.  -  progressive

  •  team limbaugh doing well again. it's amazing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mightymouse

    that the Left lets GOP candidates like palin romney ryan get this close to the white house just because they give the right's best weapon a free speech free ride.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and partisan lying by broadcasting sports on Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:43:19 AM PDT

  •  buckle up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stagemom

    It's all about the closing...

    hmmm Obama..Big Dog and Bruce

    "President Obama's campaign said today that Springsteen will appear along with ex-President Bill Clinton a pro-Obama rally Thursday in Parma, Ohio.

    "Bruce Springsteen's values echo what the President and Vice President (Biden) stand for: hard work, fairness, integrity," said Jim Messina, Obama for America's campaign manager. "His appearances will help with our get out the vote effort in these critical swing states and we are thrilled with his ongoing support."

    We Take Care of our own...

    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  It's a shame (0+ / 0-)

    It looks like our guy is fading fast.  I wonder what can be done now to turn this around.  How sad would a one term Obama presidency be?

  •  oh yeah (0+ / 0-)

    If these three came here to Denver? Boulder? Ft. Collins?

  •  Weren't you scolding some of us.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...for worrying a week or two?

    Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

    by Bush Bites on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:01:27 AM PDT

    •  Was I? I don't recall that (0+ / 0-)

      Would love an example.

      There's a time and a place for everything. I am of the opinion, for example, that this is and was a close race with a small and significant Obama lead.

      As of this week, that lead is questionable, but we will know more within the next four or five days.

      I think Obama did poorly in the debate (and said so) and I think and thought the debate was bad but not a game changer. I find myself in rare agreement with Scott Rasmussen and (not rare, but frequent agreement with) Jon Cohen on that (link in main post).

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:38:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i was at SF jazz festival, marvin miller, instead (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    One Opinion

    of watching the debate.  
    and wishing i was watching the A's...
    i knew biden could handle it, and i knew there'd be a replay and a dissection.
    but,

    why is the president's campaign office shooting not getting more outrage through, at the very least, 24 hrs???
    think of the outrage if it was a republican office!!

    Give me back my democracy. 50% + 1

    by stagemom on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:28:24 AM PDT

  •  Wied. Obama at 50% approval + in Ras, Gallup (0+ / 0-)

    Has a President with approval over 50% ever lost? What would be the implications of tossing out a popular and well-liked President?

    When we were ahead, people at DailyKos said to fight like we were behind. When we were behind, people at DailyKos said to give up.

    by NoFortunateSon on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:13:28 AM PDT

  •  i have a theory... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newdem1960

    Completely based on hunch..that the polls reflect dissapointnent in Obamas debate performance (which is really disappointment in his defense of his record directly in the face of his opponent)..they don't really mean I'll vote for Romney but try harder obama...we're rooting for you we want to vote for you but you have to want it bad and still have fight in you. It was a criticism of Obama more than a thumbs up for Romney. Anyway, I've decided to look less at polls if they can swing that far that fast..then what do they really mean..maybe nothing. People have made up their minds..the debates are the equivalent of American Idol where people phone in their assessment of a specific performance. The country has made up its mind. Now they just have to put their ballots where their mouths are.
    Turn off your tv and GOTV. Whatever it takes.

  •  more data coming in (0+ / 0-)

    I just got polled by an agency I didn't catch the name of -- MA-Sen and President, plus a question about the economy.  I'm curious who it was, actually -- anyone know who's polling today in MA?  I looked at some lists of polling agencies but nothing stood out as familiar.

  •  Obama needs to focus on women's issues. (0+ / 0-)
  •  It makes little sense (0+ / 0-)

    for Obama to have the Clintons as his enemies, yet this is exactly what is occurring as he tries to throw the blame for the Benghazi debacle as far afield as possible. Obama is not the political equal of Bill, the tragedy and the farce has always been that he thinks otherwise, his chances of getting reelected are growing ever slimmer, his prospects of leaving a lasting legacy ever dimmer. President Clinton has always seen through the Obama facade and his social-progressive charade, and after last weeks debate debacle millions have suddenly become privy to Clinton's privileged and private understanding behind the Obama mythos.

  •  There are many Romney/Ryan shills here as well (0+ / 0-)

    It must be understood, too, that the Romney/Ryan shills are everywhere--particularly here, on this website.

    You will note that their responses to my above comment make no sense--they would have us all believe that Romney, who was nowhere and without hope before the first debate, is now inevitably the winner after that debate.  Yet they deny the reality, which would mean that the clear majority of Americans would vote against their own interests.  

    The point is, they are clearly shills, meant to infiltrate and discourage--and they know (they have been very well paid) that this election cannot be won legitimately by their side.  They can only steal it--and they are bracing you for that theft.  They are attempting to make you be certain that because of a single debate performance, our side, even three weeks out, cannot win, whereas their side, just two weeks ago in political oblivion, is now likely to win.  And they must get you believe in their own unreality to do so.

    •  You're wrong Lambros, (0+ / 0-)

      it really does boil down to what transpired during the first debate; Obama appeared absolutely incompetent and has gravely demoralized great swathes of the electorate; the dimmer ones of these demoralized will go out and vote Republican, the more pensive and self-aware will remain inactive and dream of life in France. Obama has sown demoralization across the impressionable Democratic camp and may well end up with little to show (for his incompetence) but squashed hopes and cooked geese by the time Thanksgiving gets around.

  •  I Am Going To Watch Big Joe: (0+ / 0-)

    Again and aagain so I konw how to take down a lyin' Ryan when i meet one.  A masterful study in the use of humor, facts, gestures, giddiness and kick ass style.

  •  Benghazi Consulate Attack = Fail (0+ / 0-)

    IF this comes up in the debate; it's a problem for our POTUS.

    throwing our "intelligence services" misinformation under the bus as some sort of excuse is feeble; nobody is buying this.

    the other lame excuse; "normally we don't have Marines stationed at our Consulates" won't wash either. Libya is far, far from being a "normal", stable nation. there are 1,000's of people armed with military style weapons walking around with little to do.

    IMHO, 30-40 Marines at our Libyan Consulate would have saved the life of our Ambassador and the lives of the other three staff people, also valuable, important personnel.

    the other excuse-- "the repugs cut spending for security" won't likely wash either... we spend hundreds of Billions of dollars per year on our military.. the notion we can't get 30-40 Marines to help out in an UNstable nation like Libya is total bullcrap.

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 10:45:47 AM PDT

  •  TALK IS CHEAP...!!!! Big talk...big bloviating (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    guavaboy

    bluster and babble.....TALK IS CHEAP...!!!!!

    What has Romney actually DONE....!?!?

    Romneycare..!?!?   Ship jobs overseas...!?!?
    Hide his money...!?!?  Cheat on his taxes...!?!?!

    That is what he has DONE...!!!!!  

    Bloviating bluster about "Title IX" and "Mercy" and "Behghazi" and "blah, blah, blah, blah".......

    Let's hope that ain't worth a dime...!!!!

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