At the moment, I'm a little freaked, just like a lot of us are. Looking ahead, I'm optimistic and determined -- it's the only option. Lookin' back (Bob Seger alert) at that weirdly consequential first debate, it struck me that it was a replay, sorta, of the Clinton-Bush '92 town hall. Remember how Bush was tired, disengaged and seemingly not very happy to be there, while Clinton was the opposite. Of course, the analogy is imperfect because Clinton spoke the truth in debates, and actually gives a damn about the 99%, 47%, and all the others, from the very few to all of us.
I think a lot of Obama's lead after the convention was soft -- metastable is a nice word -- and the debate catalyzed an imminent change, and also magnified it. Willard was slinging some major snake oil, snake that he is, and Obama's "fired up" vibe was AWOL. No point in further post-mortem; we've all been through it.
But this unsettling cascade of new support for R-money is likely also soft. Obama will perform well in the remaining debates -- he's extraordinarily good at course corrections; remember how he improved in '08. I don't buy that it's so hard to rebut Willard's lies in a debate. The Minister of Explaining Stuff did just fine with that at the Convention. Obama might call on Big Dog for some help in calling out the brass.
(more below the dancing spermatozoa)
So even if President Obama is seen as having fought slippery, mendacious Mitt to a draw, I imagine he'll gain back some ground. The campaign will keep messaging well. And a lot of those Obama-leaning, "registered but not likely" voters will get their bases in gear, so to speak, when they see it's this close. Us engaged 'uns will help see to that.
Gotta confess, watching that sharp downturn over at 538 has freaked me out pretty good. BUT -- I believe Barack Obama is going to be at his best in the next three weeks and three days, and that he and Joe Biden will help fire up committed and persuadable voters to the maximum degree.
I happen to live in Virginia, which has its pluses and minuses, but at the moment, wow, what an amazing opportunity to do some good. Which is the best antidote (or at least most productive one) for having been freaked about the polls. The choice couldn't be clearer, and we can't... go... back! (inelegant segue to....)