My guess is that the election as of this point is pretty much set in stone. Romney has thrown his best punch, and the fundamentals still favor the president. I'm also guess Romney can't be everywhere at once, so the states he's going to be able to contest the most are going to be with him.
So here are my really close calls (2% or less margin of victory):
- 1. Colorado goes to Romney. Mormon Church, evangelical organization and money help get over the top and win it. Closest state of the night.
- 2. Florida goes to Romney. Economy and Republican Party organization (and some serious vote suppression) get Romney over the top for the win. We'd be in better shape here if the Democratic Party was in better shape in the state overall.
- 3. North Carolina goes to Romney. Southern state reverts back to type. This is the best news of the day because although Romney wins it, he has to go there to win it.
Swing states that will go for Obama early:
- 4. Wisconsin goes to Obama. Wont even be close. This will be an early call and the first sign that Romney has been beaten.
- 5. Ohio goes to Obama. Pure organizational muscle built on years and years of contested elections. Union organization in the state is too well built for GOP to overcome. Obama Campaign is too well built for Romney to overcome.
- 6. Nevada goes to Obama. Harry Reid's machine. Nuff said.
- 7. Iowa goes to Obama. State never really liked Romney. Obama Campaign wins the state long before election day.
- 8. New Hampshire goes to Obama. New England state reverts to type.
Finally the late call state of the night:
- 9. Virginia goes to Obama. He wont need it to win because all the above states put him up at 281. But he will win it through sheer force of will and emotion. I predict this is where Obama will wind up his campaign's week. If Obama is not in Virginia during the last week, then he's in trouble. If he's there, then he's won.