PPP tweets: "Barack Obama was a lot stronger in our Saturday Ohio polling than Friday night. We'll have the final results soon."
UPDATE: PPP - Obama 51-Romney 46 in Ohio - extending his lead to +5 from the pre-debate +4!!!! Big MO!
UPDATE 2: PPP Tweets that 19% of Ohioans have already voted - Obama up 76-24 with that group. Romney up 51-45 with the remaining 81%. Ohio voters think Biden won the debate 46-37, Ohio Independents think Biden won the debate 44-32. Ohio voters supported the auto bailout 54-37.
Awesome news!
Also - I don't think that the debate was the full cause of the bounce. The debate hurt. The media narrative hurt. But Another one-time event occurred, and that may also explain some of the bounce reversal.
From the Washington Post - Romney tries to bury Obama with ads.
After Obama + his allies outspent Romney + his allies throughout the election cycle, we see...
Mitt Romney and his allies are banking heavily on a high-risk, high-reward media strategy in the final weeks of the campaign, hoping that burying President Obama in ads will give them a crucial edge on Election Day.
Basically, the right ran 50% more ads in swing states last week than Obama did. My theory: that helped due to some shock value. However, after a point, those ads lose effect. See also: the Ohio Senatorial campaign, where Sherrod Brown has faced more negative ads than anyone else, but yet he still leads, while running as a liberal in a state that has historically been more Republican than the rest of the country. The initial barrage may have swayed some folks but I think that sort of thing loses effect. For example, most of the "Killer" ads that Obama has put together recently - I don't see any of them as particularly effective at moving the needle. Maybe maintaining the status quo. But then again, I'm an amateur.
We saw 3 of 5 trackers move our way today. Got a great poll out of Arizona. Got a teaser that Ohio was close (which I read as tied or one party up 1, vs. PPP's last poll saying Obama was up 4) but now we're hearing that Obama has moved up in the one-day sample in Ohio. Great news. If he does well on Tuesday - and he's shown he's very good at things when he devotes full energy to them - then yesterday could prove to be Romney's peak. All we need is the media to enjoy a "Obama turns it around" narrative.
-Fred