This is an educational primer to educate everyone on the early voting results being reported by the various polling organizations. Here are the data points behind what's going on in Ohio.
* Ohio does not have party registration -- early voting party registration is based on last party primary you participated in.
*OBAMA- 96 field offices vs. Romney -36 field offices
*2012 GOP primary - 1,212,403 total voters (Exit polls 5% Democrats = 60,620) Only 27% of Dems voted for Romney-47% for Santorum-- This has a small impact on the party registration of early voters reported.
*General election vs. open GOP-primary voters- Younger, blacker, more brown, more liberal whites, more urban voters, higher number of indie voters
*Early voting reported statistics is delayed --will report next week
Polling key stats to watch
* Early voting poling /Same Day (SD)
Marist 18% of electorate-- 63%-37% (+26 O) SD- 48-46 Obama
PPP 19% of electorate - 76%-24% (+52 O) SD- 51-46 Romney
SUSA 11% of electorate - 59%-39% (+20 O) SD- 46-45 Romney (week old)
White voter support for Obama (Average
Marist Romney 51%-44% (+7%)
SUSA Romney 48%-40% (+8%)
PPP Romney 50%-47% (+3%)
ARG Romney 56%-39% (+17%)
Gender Gap for Women
Marist Romney tied Men/Obama +12 Women =12%
SUSA Romney +7 Men /Obama +9 Women = 16%
PPP Romney +2 Men/Obama + 12 Women =12%
ARG Romney +4 Men/Obama + 3 Women = 7%
MARIST 49% -41% Romney (+8%)
SUSA 44%-35% Romney (+9%) 9% said other
PPP 50%-45% Romney (+5%)
ARG 57%-37% Romney (+20%)
Dem vs GOP support
Marist 92-6 Dem/92-5 GOP
SUSA 85-9 Dem/87-6 GOP
PPP 90-9 Dem/85-11 GOP
ARG 88-7 Dem /92-3 GOP
2008 Early Voting stats
*Blacks 28% of Cuyahoga county population & 56% of early voters
*Blacks 20% of Franklin county pop. & 34% of early voters
*29% of voters casted early in 2008
*Early voting intensity remains consistent on a week to week basis, but sees a slight uptick every week until the election
*2010 early voters where women 62-38/Election day 52-48 male
*Early voters have lower incomes/younger--
Actual 2008 results = 52.3/47.7 =4.6%
2008 Polling Analysis last poll before election -- Obama advantages
RCP +2.5 % Below by 2.1%
Ras = tied Below by 4.6%
Univ of Cincy = +6% Obama Above 1.4%
Survey USA = 2% Below by 2.6%
Qunnipiac = 7% Above by 2.4%
ARG = McCain +2% Below by 6.6%
Internals that stand out
Survey USA --only poill that still exists with data
Exactly forecasted percentage that early voted at 30% (60-36 Obama)
Undercut the black vote by 88-10 in survey vs. 97-2 in person
White vote/indie vote/cross over margins matched up to internals
Undercut D vs R margin by 2% (6% survey 8% on election day)
Inflated GOP electorate % by 6 points.
Analysis- Having a strong Democratic party machine & Obama's appeal to non Democratic voters is resulting in a massive early voting margin. The Obama team has persuaded their base to vote early and the results are showing that aggressive approach. If we are going to aggregate the early vote Obama is probably leading 64-36 when you account for the Democratic field operation advantage, the negative publicity to disenfranchise young/black voters, and the cultural preference for Obama's base to get out the vote.
The study posted below, measure early voting in 2010 (off-year election) which skews the data about presidential election trends. Essentially, early presidential voters consist of a much higher percentage of blacks, college students, females, & liberals. Without a doubt, Republican voters love to turn-out on election day which is being revealed in the polling data. Equally, the early voting requests coming from the strong Dem counties are very strong and surpassing 2008 levels.
Since the early voting numbers only include the last party primary voted in, 2012 GOP primary was open, Ohio doesn't have party registration now & this data won't include new voters it's impossible to make an accurate analysis. But if you understand how Democrats win here--they run up huge margins in Cuyahoga county as they've done in 2000, 2004 & 2008 where they won with 62.6%, 66.6% & 68.5% of the margin. The democrats essentially get 17% of their vote in one county.
Early voting here as of 10/12 is 229,568 compared to 231,500 in 2008. With 3 weeks of early voting left (where data shows voting increased exponentially each consecutive week closer to election day) then it's very likely this number doubles. This is a game changer because they will need less votes elsewhere. It's very targeted that Clinton/Springsteen will be in Parma next week which is Cleveland metro. Obama won't be campaigning with them so he can campaign elsewhere, but this area is the key. The end result is early voting is our friend and if we hit 40% while maintaining a 20% margin then we win.